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TE Rob Gronkowski (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter bicycle_seat_sniffer
- Start date
Peyton Manning was going at right around the same ADP last year (early- to mid-4th) as Gronk is this year. All of the questions that have been asked about Gronk's ability to bounce back, ongoing effectiveness, possibility for re-injury, etc. were being asked about Manning last year, in fact more so.
In the end, owners had to be willing to roll the dice with a 4th-round pick on the (clearly uncertain) possibility that Peyton would bounce back to something close to, well, Peyton.
Peyton won a lot of those owners championships last year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yahoo stats show that Manning was one of the top 5 most owned players on championship teams last year. I am banking that Gronk (and RG3) make that list for this year.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If he's healthy, Gronk puts up top 10 WR stats at the TE position. Even if he sits 3 games, you're telling me that I can get top 10 WR position at a position that usually scores like a WR3/4 and I can get him in the 4th round? Seems like a no-brainer to me.
I took him in the 3rd last night in a 14 team league. No regrets. In fact, I doubled down since my WRs were going to be weak and drafted Josh Gordon and Blackmon too. I have 3 guys out for anywhere from 2-4 weeks, but if I can win even 1 or 2 of those first matchups I'm set for the whole rest of the year with studs.
I took him in the 3rd last night in a 14 team league. No regrets. In fact, I doubled down since my WRs were going to be weak and drafted Josh Gordon and Blackmon too. I have 3 guys out for anywhere from 2-4 weeks, but if I can win even 1 or 2 of those first matchups I'm set for the whole rest of the year with studs.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Heh, I did the same with Gordon and Blackmon. Come week 5, I'm gonna be a monster!!
But completely agree and think he's falling way too far.
Let's assume a somewhat medium worst-case scenario. What if Calvin Johnson was suspended the first 4 games of the year. How far do you think he'd drop?
Art Vandalay
Footballguy
Rob Gronkowski - TE - Patriots
Rob Gronkowski (back) was in full pads at Patriots practice once again Wednesday.
Gronkowski continues to participate on the same schedule as his healthy teammates. He's not going to play against the Bills Sunday and Week 2 looks like a longshot as well, but Week 3 or 4 is a very real possibility. Any owner that stole Gronk in the middle rounds of their fantasy draft should be charged with larceny. "He's out there busting his butt, which is great to see," Tom Brady said of his tight end.
Source: Boston Herald
Sep 4 - 11:00 AM
Rob Gronkowski (back) was in full pads at Patriots practice once again Wednesday.
Gronkowski continues to participate on the same schedule as his healthy teammates. He's not going to play against the Bills Sunday and Week 2 looks like a longshot as well, but Week 3 or 4 is a very real possibility. Any owner that stole Gronk in the middle rounds of their fantasy draft should be charged with larceny. "He's out there busting his butt, which is great to see," Tom Brady said of his tight end.
Source: Boston Herald
Sep 4 - 11:00 AM
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
The bolded no longer makes sense to me. He's practicing everyday, which has to lead you to believe hes fine but he's sure not to play the first 2 weeks? Doesnt make sense.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
its pure conjecture on the writters part.
No I dont dobut that the Pats hold him out. But usually when someone practices, they play.
The math tells me I should take a fourth off the 240 or so VBD I expect him to post this year, knocking him down to 180, which last year was Andre Johnson / Eric Decker range. Personally, though, I think I'd still take him as the 4th WR off the board, behind Dez, AJG, and Marshall.
Back to Gronk, I look at it this way: Almost everyone you talk to fully expects D-Mac to miss 3 games this season, minimum. And he's a borderline RB1 even at full strength. Yet he's going a half-dozen spots ahead of a guy who's likely to miss the same amount of time and is an unquestioned top-2 talent when healthy?
My last draft is tonight - a 12-teamer with a mandatory TE plus a flex spot - and I'm hoping to be able to try an experiment: going RB / RB / RB / Gronk to start, picking up both Gordon and Blackmon in later rounds as well, then hoping to just luck my way to one win in the first 4 games, trading a slow start for the possibility of a big finish. Now I've just got my fingers crossed that someone doesn't try to jump ahead of me for Gronk in the 4th ... <_<
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Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
sunday at noon will he be decalred active? then we will know
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I would be shocked if he was a full participant Sunday but wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in for red zone work.
I haven't read through the entire thread. I think he plays week 1. 
And extra point unit as well of course.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
just be near your computer at 1230 on sunday
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
I didnt mean it come off like you should have read all of it
We're in the same boat. I actually think the most he misses is one game but at this point I'm expecting to see him out there week 1 with a TD
Shutout
Footballguy
I read a ROto blurb today that says he continues to practice as normal with all others. They then said something to the effect of it should be grand larceny if people grab him in the early-mid rounds.
I guess that is true if he comes back and plays most games but it might be hard to take him over guys like Ball, Lacy, and that last line of startable Rbs.
I play in dynasties though, so I'm probably misjudging things. I don't think even in a dynasty I am willing to take Gronk over young starting RBs or Wrs at this point. The health issues, Brady's age, the unknown of how New England will morph again..just seems like a lot.
I guess that is true if he comes back and plays most games but it might be hard to take him over guys like Ball, Lacy, and that last line of startable Rbs.
I play in dynasties though, so I'm probably misjudging things. I don't think even in a dynasty I am willing to take Gronk over young starting RBs or Wrs at this point. The health issues, Brady's age, the unknown of how New England will morph again..just seems like a lot.
We wont know when Gronk is going to play until he plays. The nightmare is that he has lingering issues... in which case we wont know game to game indefinately. THATS the real Gronk risk.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I own Gronk in both my leagues - I honestly dont want him back on the field until he is just about 100 percent...
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
As optimistic as I've been about this since the infection was cleared and he came out of the surgery as expected I don't think I'd start him Week 1.
LawFitz
Footballguy
The math is wrong. You need to also include the points you'd get from the backup player you'd start in his place during the first four weeks.
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
Whether he plays or not I cant waste a roster spot on a back up tight end on BB's mind games. He plays thats my opinion. I dropped my back up tight end and met other team needs already.
If he's active, I'm starting him. I'm just doubtful that he'll actually be active in week 1.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
in the fgpc i took him in the 3rd...
i would of liked the pick a lot better if i paired him with 2 stud rbs to start but, hes paired with julio, and martin on my team right now which i could end up having a top 3 rb, wr, and te..
ITS A HUGE RISK but it could be a move that helps you win a league championship
i would of liked the pick a lot better if i paired him with 2 stud rbs to start but, hes paired with julio, and martin on my team right now which i could end up having a top 3 rb, wr, and te..
ITS A HUGE RISK but it could be a move that helps you win a league championship
VBD is different from PPG in that already accounts for that. VBD = points above the baseline, so by definition a baseline replacement scores 0 VBD.
I'm curious what scoring system has Gronk generating 240 points of VBD, though. I don't know if 1.5 PPR for TEs alone would be enough to get me there.
Actually, my use of the 240 figure was in reference to Calvin. Which I screwed up, BTW - that figure is actually my straight points estimate for standard leagues, which would correspond to a VBD nearer 120. In PPR those figures would probably be about 340 and 160 respectively.
Even in Gronk's monster 2011 season, he "only" put up about 140 points of VBD. I think he'll be lucky to reach half that in 2013 - but then again, that's more than reasonable value out of a 4th-round pick.
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
Let the mind games begin.
September 4, 2013 5:03 pm
Rob Gronkowski gives no hints as to Week 1 status
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (back, forearm) was listed as limited in practice Wednesday as the team prepares for Week 1 at Buffalo.
"Improving a lot," Gronkowski said. “I've been improving since last week, I've been improving since three weeks ago. The only thing I can ask out of myself, the coaches ask out of me, the trainers ask out of me, is just to take it every day at a time and just to improve every day."
As for his status for Week 1?
"Do I expect to play on Sunday?" Gronkowski said. "I'm preparing every single day to the max of my ability and preparing every day to do the best I can. When my number is called, that's when I'll play."
September 4, 2013 5:03 pm
Rob Gronkowski gives no hints as to Week 1 status
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (back, forearm) was listed as limited in practice Wednesday as the team prepares for Week 1 at Buffalo.
"Improving a lot," Gronkowski said. “I've been improving since last week, I've been improving since three weeks ago. The only thing I can ask out of myself, the coaches ask out of me, the trainers ask out of me, is just to take it every day at a time and just to improve every day."
As for his status for Week 1?
"Do I expect to play on Sunday?" Gronkowski said. "I'm preparing every single day to the max of my ability and preparing every day to do the best I can. When my number is called, that's when I'll play."
The_Wolfman
Footballguy
My gut says he plays in a limited role week 1. If he's healthy enough to practice I can't see why they wouldn't bring him out in red zone plays at the very minimum.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
T with T
Footballguy
totally agree guys I think BB is messing around... I remember when they asked him a week ago about Gronk he just said he is out there doing everything that anyone else is doing. That tells me that his status is no diff then say tom brady. All these reporters don't know for sure he isn't playing they are just guessing, no one knows but probably BB. I say he may play week 1.. If he practices wed, fri, and travels with team I think he plays.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
Anyone wanna guess his week 1 stat line?
3 catches 20 yards 3 tds?
3 catches 20 yards 3 tds?
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
He's a limited participant in 11-on-11's, though, isn't he? That's about as close as you can get. When RG3 was cleared for 11-on-11's, it was obvious that it was go time.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Will he be in on the extra points after those Tds? Then we'll know he's really 100%.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Froze him in my PPR and paired him with Sudfield just in case.
MCguidance
Footballguy
On board with a sixth round pick. Could be the sod for many of you guys.
Gronkowski is a 2nd round pick if he misses just 2 gms. He'll battle Graham for PPG crown. 1st round #fantasy pick if you knew he'd start 14
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
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Seems like a stretch. No way with all of those surgeries could he have even come close to doing what his normal off season conditioning. No way he could have lifted for large chunks, if not most of the off season. He's got to have lost muscle mass on top of not being in the same overall physical condition.
Maybe if he does not have any setbacks he'll work himself into shape over the next few months. But that's not even going to be easy since it's highly likely the wear and tear are going to be harder on him this year since his conditioning and strength are likely not up to his normal standards and he's going to need more time to recover.
So no, I can't see him competing with Graham for the PPG crown.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Gronk was a 2nd round pick last year coming off the greatest season ever for a TE. While I love all the positive news, Chase sounds like he's dreaming in yesteryear.Adam Harstad said:
A fully healthy Gronk averages about 3 more PPG than Graham in standard and about 2.5 more PPG in PPR. 15.1 PPG vs. 12.3 PPG in 2011. 13.3 PPG vs. 10.2 PPG in 2012. In PPR leagues, that was 20.7 vs. 18.5 and 18.3 vs. 15.8.menobrown said:
With a massive head start like that, Gronk could take a couple of weeks to work back into game shape and still finish neck-and-neck with Graham in points per game. When you realize that players actually average as many points per game in weeks they appear on the injury report as they do in weeks where they don't, I'd expect Gronk to top Graham in PPG.
I think Chase is saying where Gronk *SHOULD* be drafted, not where he *WOULD* be drafted.
Shutout
Footballguy
I agree. Also, in this particular year, there are a LOT of great players you would be passing on if you took him that high. If he was taken 1.11, that means you passed on a heck of a Rb or maybe even Calvin in certain leagues.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Its funny, last year everyone was all over Gronk and Graham. They both regressed last year, but people are still crazy for both of them, or at least Graham. I will pass on Graham at his price, but I don't mind Gronk at the discount
Banger
Footballguy
I don't know....I really like Graham this year. He had a wrist injury that hampered him last year and he's the #1 wr on that offense. I wouldn't be shocked if he got 95 catches / 10 tds this year.
ebsteelers
Footballguy
i've got gronk in the 3rd once 1.5 ppr tes.
and twice in the 4th ppr.
the one draft i paired him with graham
another paired him with witten in the 5th.
and twice in the 4th ppr.
the one draft i paired him with graham
another paired him with witten in the 5th.
In 2011, Gronkowski scored 143 VBD, which was the 7th best total in the league. Calvin ranked 6th with 149 VBD.
In 2012, if you pro-rate to 16 games, Gronk would have scored 112 VBD, which would have been the 6th best total in the league. Calvin would have ranked 8th with 102 VBD.
I believe that PFR's VBD baseline is WR30 instead of WR36 (I think as a compromise between start-2 and start-3 WR leagues, although the former seem to be in decline), so that'll boost Calvin a bit in the comparison, but still... Healthy Rob Gronkowski has historically been an asset every bit as valuable as Calvin Johnson. What's more, with the loss of Welker, Lloyd, and Hernandez, there's a good chance that New England leans on him even more than they have in the past two seasons.
If you could guarantee me that Rob Gronkowski would play 14 games- i.e. he'd return in week 3 and would not get injured again at some point in the season- I would gladly take him in the 1st round. Not over Calvin, nor over Peterson, Martin, Charles, Rice, McCoy, or Richardson... but starting around pick 8 I would be giving him some serious thought. Jimmy Graham's ADP is pick 13, and I think I'd prefer a guaranteed 14 games of Gronk over a likely-but-not-guaranteed 15 or 16 games of Graham.
