TE Rob Gronkowski (4 Viewers)

[T with T]

Gronkowski is a 2nd round pick if he misses just 2 gms. He'll battle Graham for PPG crown. 1st round #fantasy pick if you knew he'd start 14

-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)

Seems like a stretch. No way with all of those surgeries could he have even come close to doing what his normal off season conditioning. No way he could have lifted for large chunks, if not most of the off season. He's got to have lost muscle mass on top of not being in the same overall physical condition.

Maybe if he does not have any setbacks he'll work himself into shape over the next few months. But that's not even going to be easy since it's highly likely the wear and tear are going to be harder on him this year since his conditioning and strength are likely not up to his normal standards and he's going to need more time to recover.

So no, I can't see him competing with Graham for the PPG crown.

Bro you are totally over thinking this... Lifting weights doesn't make you catch the ball better... he isn't gonna be in a weighlifting comp. he is gonna be a main stallwart in a Tom Brady led offense and a redzone Freak.... Stop overanalyzing and giving yourself reason for Gronkowski to fail or be mediocre when in your little hearts you know he will be huge.

 

[T with T]

Gronkowski is a 2nd round pick if he misses just 2 gms. He'll battle Graham for PPG crown. 1st round #fantasy pick if you knew he'd start 14

-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)

Gronk was a 2nd round pick last year coming off the greatest season ever for a TE. While I love all the positive news, Chase sounds like he's dreaming in yesteryear.

I agree. Also, in this particular year, there are a LOT of great players you would be passing on if you took him that high. If he was taken 1.11, that means you passed on a heck of a Rb or maybe even Calvin in certain leagues.

In 2011, Gronkowski scored 143 VBD, which was the 7th best total in the league. Calvin ranked 6th with 149 VBD.

In 2012, if you pro-rate to 16 games, Gronk would have scored 112 VBD, which would have been the 6th best total in the league. Calvin would have ranked 8th with 102 VBD.

I believe that PFR's VBD baseline is WR30 instead of WR36 (I think as a compromise between start-2 and start-3 WR leagues, although the former seem to be in decline), so that'll boost Calvin a bit in the comparison, but still... Healthy Rob Gronkowski has historically been an asset every bit as valuable as Calvin Johnson. What's more, with the loss of Welker, Lloyd, and Hernandez, there's a good chance that New England leans on him even more than they have in the past two seasons.

If you could guarantee me that Rob Gronkowski would play 14 games- i.e. he'd return in week 3 and would not get injured again at some point in the season- I would gladly take him in the 1st round. Not over Calvin, nor over Peterson, Martin, Charles, Rice, McCoy, or Richardson... but starting around pick 8 I would be giving him some serious thought. Jimmy Graham's ADP is pick 13, and I think I'd prefer a guaranteed 14 games of Gronk over a likely-but-not-guaranteed 15 or 16 games of Graham.

What about Spiller?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Gronkowski is a 2nd round pick if he misses just 2 gms. He'll battle Graham for PPG crown. 1st round #fantasy pick if you knew he'd start 14

-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)

Gronk was a 2nd round pick last year coming off the greatest season ever for a TE. While I love all the positive news, Chase sounds like he's dreaming in yesteryear.

I agree. Also, in this particular year, there are a LOT of great players you would be passing on if you took him that high. If he was taken 1.11, that means you passed on a heck of a Rb or maybe even Calvin in certain leagues.

In 2011, Gronkowski scored 143 VBD, which was the 7th best total in the league. Calvin ranked 6th with 149 VBD.

In 2012, if you pro-rate to 16 games, Gronk would have scored 112 VBD, which would have been the 6th best total in the league. Calvin would have ranked 8th with 102 VBD.

I believe that PFR's VBD baseline is WR30 instead of WR36 (I think as a compromise between start-2 and start-3 WR leagues, although the former seem to be in decline), so that'll boost Calvin a bit in the comparison, but still... Healthy Rob Gronkowski has historically been an asset every bit as valuable as Calvin Johnson. What's more, with the loss of Welker, Lloyd, and Hernandez, there's a good chance that New England leans on him even more than they have in the past two seasons.

If you could guarantee me that Rob Gronkowski would play 14 games- i.e. he'd return in week 3 and would not get injured again at some point in the season- I would gladly take him in the 1st round. Not over Calvin, nor over Peterson, Martin, Charles, Rice, McCoy, or Richardson... but starting around pick 8 I would be giving him some serious thought. Jimmy Graham's ADP is pick 13, and I think I'd prefer a guaranteed 14 games of Gronk over a likely-but-not-guaranteed 15 or 16 games of Graham.

What about Spiller?

I would take Guaranteed Healthy Gronk over Spiller. Spiller still has a lot of question surrounding him. How big of a load will he get? How well will he handle it? How bad is that offense going to be? The only question surrounding Rob Gronkowski is health, and if you take away that question by guaranteeing him 14 games, he's the safest play in all of fantasy football, with the possible exception of Peterson and Calvin.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Curiouser and curiouser, though no reports of heavy contact yet (that I've seen)...from the Boston Herald:

Rob Gronkowski took part in a team drill during the media portion of today's practice, as the Pats tight end continued to work his way toward his first game of the season, whenever that happens to be.

Tom Brady and five pass catchers lined up in the red zone and worked on different routes against no defense, and Gronkowski was consistently running with the first-team offense. He also caught a touchdown pass, for what it's worth.

Gronkowski then took part in positional drills with the rest of the tight ends. The focus was on technique, as they'd get out of a three-point stance, use hand work to get off a block against an assistant coach then work out of their break in front of a linebacker (equipment manager) before catching a pass. Gronkowski moved fluidly throughout each rep.

 

[ponchsox]

Curiouser and curiouser, though no reports of heavy contact yet (that I've seen)...from the Boston Herald:

Rob Gronkowski took part in a team drill during the media portion of today's practice, as the Pats tight end continued to work his way toward his first game of the season, whenever that happens to be.

Tom Brady and five pass catchers lined up in the red zone and worked on different routes against no defense, and Gronkowski was consistently running with the first-team offense. He also caught a touchdown pass, for what it's worth.

Gronkowski then took part in positional drills with the rest of the tight ends. The focus was on technique, as they'd get out of a three-point stance, use hand work to get off a block against an assistant coach then work out of their break in front of a linebacker (equipment manager) before catching a pass. Gronkowski moved fluidly throughout each rep.

Nice, looking like week 1 is even more of a possiblity for Gronk.

 

[Anarchy99]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

 

[ponchsox]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I saw a picture of him signing autographs and he looks skinny as hell. The recovery cost him a lot of time in the gym but at least he's still in great shape.

 

[Bayhawks]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I have had issues with your "glass-half-empty" take on Gronkowski's situation most of the pre-season. It has smacked of some other motive; whether you have league-mates who frequent these boards, or traded him away (and wanted to validate that decision), you have focused on negatives (and in some cases, made up negatives) about Gronkowski news.

In this case, however, I think you are spot on. I believe (and this is just my belief, based on nothing other than how I've interpreted what I've read recently) that the recent news is part of Gronkowski's rehab, not an attempt to get him ready to play week 1. He is at the point where he is able to start getting ready to play football, and taking part in drills, while wearing full pads would seem to be part of that. If there were reports of him taking full contact (or even partial contact), I might think differently, but I still think he will play in week 3. I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

 

[ponchsox]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I have had issues with your "glass-half-empty" take on Gronkowski's situation most of the pre-season. It has smacked of some other motive; whether you have league-mates who frequent these boards, or traded him away (and wanted to validate that decision), you have focused on negatives (and in some cases, made up negatives) about Gronkowski news.

In this case, however, I think you are spot on. I believe (and this is just my belief, based on nothing other than how I've interpreted what I've read recently) that the recent news is part of Gronkowski's rehab, not an attempt to get him ready to play week 1. He is at the point where he is able to start getting ready to play football, and taking part in drills, while wearing full pads would seem to be part of that. If there were reports of him taking full contact (or even partial contact), I might think differently, but I still think he will play in week 3. I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

This is basically his training camp.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

This is where I am as well. No doubt partly because I hope it's how it goes -- it would give me a headache if he was active Week 1 or Week 2.

 

[Anarchy99]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I have had issues with your "glass-half-empty" take on Gronkowski's situation most of the pre-season. It has smacked of some other motive; whether you have league-mates who frequent these boards, or traded him away (and wanted to validate that decision), you have focused on negatives (and in some cases, made up negatives) about Gronkowski news.

In this case, however, I think you are spot on. I believe (and this is just my belief, based on nothing other than how I've interpreted what I've read recently) that the recent news is part of Gronkowski's rehab, not an attempt to get him ready to play week 1. He is at the point where he is able to start getting ready to play football, and taking part in drills, while wearing full pads would seem to be part of that. If there were reports of him taking full contact (or even partial contact), I might think differently, but I still think he will play in week 3. I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

I have no agenda on anything I post. I pretty much have retired from playing fantasy football (play in only one long standing league). Don't own him, have had no drafts, am not prepping to draft, have no league mates to fool, pretty much have no reason to like or dislike him.

I have spoken to a few surgeons and orthopedic specialists. In general, they have said that no one surgery taken as an individual procedure is usually something to get too concerned about, but each surgery may take a little bit off someone's total skill set. Depending upon the surgery, maybe it's a percent point or two. But collectively having more and more surgery is usually not a good thing. In the span of what, 4 years, Gronk has had 2 back surgeries, multiple arm surgeries, ankle surgery, and maybe others we have no knowledge about (could have been in the offseason and not noteworthy on an injury report). He certain is a great talent, but he obviously has been beaten up a bunch in a short timeframe.

Maybe he plays 10 more years. Maybe he plays 3 more years. Certainly no one knows what will happen. Maybe he will have a long stretch of good health or maybe he will continue to get banged up. But I don't think it's out of line to start wondering if he will come back 100% and if he can stay 100%. Sure, even at 90% he's better than probably 30 other TEs in the league. What happens if he loses a step, can't leap as high, keeps getting nicked up, etc. Sure, I get that you can say that about any player, but in his case he's spent a lot of time at the doctor's office.

 

[Bayhawks]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I have had issues with your "glass-half-empty" take on Gronkowski's situation most of the pre-season. It has smacked of some other motive; whether you have league-mates who frequent these boards, or traded him away (and wanted to validate that decision), you have focused on negatives (and in some cases, made up negatives) about Gronkowski news.

In this case, however, I think you are spot on. I believe (and this is just my belief, based on nothing other than how I've interpreted what I've read recently) that the recent news is part of Gronkowski's rehab, not an attempt to get him ready to play week 1. He is at the point where he is able to start getting ready to play football, and taking part in drills, while wearing full pads would seem to be part of that. If there were reports of him taking full contact (or even partial contact), I might think differently, but I still think he will play in week 3. I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

I have no agenda on anything I post. I pretty much have retired from playing fantasy football (play in only one long standing league). Don't own him, have had no drafts, am not prepping to draft, have no league mates to fool, pretty much have no reason to like or dislike him.

I have spoken to a few surgeons and orthopedic specialists. In general, they have said that no one surgery taken as an individual procedure is usually something to get too concerned about, but each surgery may take a little bit off someone's total skill set. Depending upon the surgery, maybe it's a percent point or two. But collectively having more and more surgery is usually not a good thing. In the span of what, 4 years, Gronk has had 2 back surgeries, multiple arm surgeries, ankle surgery, and maybe others we have no knowledge about (could have been in the offseason and not noteworthy on an injury report). He certain is a great talent, but he obviously has been beaten up a bunch in a short timeframe.

Maybe he plays 10 more years. Maybe he plays 3 more years. Certainly no one knows what will happen. Maybe he will have a long stretch of good health or maybe he will continue to get banged up. But I don't think it's out of line to start wondering if he will come back 100% and if he can stay 100%. Sure, even at 90% he's better than probably 30 other TEs in the league. What happens if he loses a step, can't leap as high, keeps getting nicked up, etc. Sure, I get that you can say that about any player, but in his case he's spent a lot of time at the doctor's office.

Be that as it may, you have been harping on the "Gronk won't be Gronk" line a lot. There's nothing to back that up, other than your converstions with surgeons/orthapedic specialists who THINK that surgeries MAY have a cumulative effect where each surgery could sap a small percentage of a player's skill set, MAYBE. You've also posted (I believe) that Gronk will be more susceptible to re-injury, when there is no data to support that belief, and that the Pats would play him on a limited set of plays until close to game 8, when there were no reports to that effect.

Perhaps you have no agenda, but your posts suggest otherwise.

 

[PhantomJB]

Personally, I've found it helpful to have a thoughtful conservative view to balance out the discussion and temper expectations. Otherwise it's just a cheerleading thread for Gronk owners.

 

[Anarchy99]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I have had issues with your "glass-half-empty" take on Gronkowski's situation most of the pre-season. It has smacked of some other motive; whether you have league-mates who frequent these boards, or traded him away (and wanted to validate that decision), you have focused on negatives (and in some cases, made up negatives) about Gronkowski news.

In this case, however, I think you are spot on. I believe (and this is just my belief, based on nothing other than how I've interpreted what I've read recently) that the recent news is part of Gronkowski's rehab, not an attempt to get him ready to play week 1. He is at the point where he is able to start getting ready to play football, and taking part in drills, while wearing full pads would seem to be part of that. If there were reports of him taking full contact (or even partial contact), I might think differently, but I still think he will play in week 3. I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

I have no agenda on anything I post. I pretty much have retired from playing fantasy football (play in only one long standing league). Don't own him, have had no drafts, am not prepping to draft, have no league mates to fool, pretty much have no reason to like or dislike him.

I have spoken to a few surgeons and orthopedic specialists. In general, they have said that no one surgery taken as an individual procedure is usually something to get too concerned about, but each surgery may take a little bit off someone's total skill set. Depending upon the surgery, maybe it's a percent point or two. But collectively having more and more surgery is usually not a good thing. In the span of what, 4 years, Gronk has had 2 back surgeries, multiple arm surgeries, ankle surgery, and maybe others we have no knowledge about (could have been in the offseason and not noteworthy on an injury report). He certain is a great talent, but he obviously has been beaten up a bunch in a short timeframe.

Maybe he plays 10 more years. Maybe he plays 3 more years. Certainly no one knows what will happen. Maybe he will have a long stretch of good health or maybe he will continue to get banged up. But I don't think it's out of line to start wondering if he will come back 100% and if he can stay 100%. Sure, even at 90% he's better than probably 30 other TEs in the league. What happens if he loses a step, can't leap as high, keeps getting nicked up, etc. Sure, I get that you can say that about any player, but in his case he's spent a lot of time at the doctor's office.

Be that as it may, you have been harping on the "Gronk won't be Gronk" line a lot. There's nothing to back that up, other than your converstions with surgeons/orthapedic specialists who THINK that surgeries MAY have a cumulative effect where each surgery could sap a small percentage of a player's skill set, MAYBE. You've also posted (I believe) that Gronk will be more susceptible to re-injury, when there is no data to support that belief, and that the Pats would play him on a limited set of plays until close to game 8, when there were no reports to that effect.

Perhaps you have no agenda, but your posts suggest otherwise.

I provided my opinion. I pointed out that he's had more injuries and surgeries than the average bear. I never said that anyone told me what would happen with Gronk or that there was any factual basis for my opinion. I never said I was reporting any news. I still stand by my opinion as what I think will happen (he won't be as good this year as he was in 2011 on a per game basis), although it certainly is starting to look that Gronk may be on the field sooner than I initially thought months and months ago. Again, all anyone can do at this point is wait in see.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Got him later than usual in a best ball format league that rewards high ceiling/injury prone type picks.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have no agenda on anything I post. I pretty much have retired from playing fantasy football (play in only one long standing league). Don't own him, have had no drafts, am not prepping to draft, have no league mates to fool, pretty much have no reason to like or dislike him.


I have spoken to a few surgeons and orthopedic specialists. In general, they have said that no one surgery taken as an individual procedure is usually something to get too concerned about, but each surgery may take a little bit off someone's total skill set. Depending upon the surgery, maybe it's a percent point or two. But collectively having more and more surgery is usually not a good thing. In the span of what, 4 years, Gronk has had 2 back surgeries, multiple arm surgeries, ankle surgery, and maybe others we have no knowledge about (could have been in the offseason and not noteworthy on an injury report). He certain is a great talent, but he obviously has been beaten up a bunch in a short timeframe.

Maybe he plays 10 more years. Maybe he plays 3 more years. Certainly no one knows what will happen. Maybe he will have a long stretch of good health or maybe he will continue to get banged up. But I don't think it's out of line to start wondering if he will come back 100% and if he can stay 100%. Sure, even at 90% he's better than probably 30 other TEs in the league. What happens if he loses a step, can't leap as high, keeps getting nicked up, etc. Sure, I get that you can say that about any player, but in his case he's spent a lot of time at the doctor's office.

I've had a root canal, an ingrown toenail removed, and my tonsils yanked. I'd say I'm right around 97%.

 

[Anarchy99]

I have no agenda on anything I post. I pretty much have retired from playing fantasy football (play in only one long standing league). Don't own him, have had no drafts, am not prepping to draft, have no league mates to fool, pretty much have no reason to like or dislike him.


I have spoken to a few surgeons and orthopedic specialists. In general, they have said that no one surgery taken as an individual procedure is usually something to get too concerned about, but each surgery may take a little bit off someone's total skill set. Depending upon the surgery, maybe it's a percent point or two. But collectively having more and more surgery is usually not a good thing. In the span of what, 4 years, Gronk has had 2 back surgeries, multiple arm surgeries, ankle surgery, and maybe others we have no knowledge about (could have been in the offseason and not noteworthy on an injury report). He certain is a great talent, but he obviously has been beaten up a bunch in a short timeframe.

Maybe he plays 10 more years. Maybe he plays 3 more years. Certainly no one knows what will happen. Maybe he will have a long stretch of good health or maybe he will continue to get banged up. But I don't think it's out of line to start wondering if he will come back 100% and if he can stay 100%. Sure, even at 90% he's better than probably 30 other TEs in the league. What happens if he loses a step, can't leap as high, keeps getting nicked up, etc. Sure, I get that you can say that about any player, but in his case he's spent a lot of time at the doctor's office.

I've had a root canal, an ingrown toenail removed, and my tonsils yanked. I'd say I'm right around 97%.

And you wondered why I didn't draft you to my fantasy team this year. Now you know why.

 

[captain_amazing]

Pats released TE Matthew Mulligan today. I believe that leaves Sudfield, Hoomanawanui, and Gronk on the roster. Mulligan was known for his blocking abilities, so it was thought that he would perform Gronks role as a blocker. With Mulligan now released, I think that could possibly (emphasis on the "possibly") hint at Gronk being ready for limited action on Sunday (unless, of course, they bring in someone else or they resign Mulligan).

 

[GroveDiesel]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I have had issues with your "glass-half-empty" take on Gronkowski's situation most of the pre-season. It has smacked of some other motive; whether you have league-mates who frequent these boards, or traded him away (and wanted to validate that decision), you have focused on negatives (and in some cases, made up negatives) about Gronkowski news.In this case, however, I think you are spot on. I believe (and this is just my belief, based on nothing other than how I've interpreted what I've read recently) that the recent news is part of Gronkowski's rehab, not an attempt to get him ready to play week 1. He is at the point where he is able to start getting ready to play football, and taking part in drills, while wearing full pads would seem to be part of that. If there were reports of him taking full contact (or even partial contact), I might think differently, but I still think he will play in week 3. I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

I have no agenda on anything I post. I pretty much have retired from playing fantasy football (play in only one long standing league). Don't own him, have had no drafts, am not prepping to draft, have no league mates to fool, pretty much have no reason to like or dislike him.I have spoken to a few surgeons and orthopedic specialists. In general, they have said that no one surgery taken as an individual procedure is usually something to get too concerned about, but each surgery may take a little bit off someone's total skill set. Depending upon the surgery, maybe it's a percent point or two. But collectively having more and more surgery is usually not a good thing. In the span of what, 4 years, Gronk has had 2 back surgeries, multiple arm surgeries, ankle surgery, and maybe others we have no knowledge about (could have been in the offseason and not noteworthy on an injury report). He certain is a great talent, but he obviously has been beaten up a bunch in a short timeframe.

Maybe he plays 10 more years. Maybe he plays 3 more years. Certainly no one knows what will happen. Maybe he will have a long stretch of good health or maybe he will continue to get banged up. But I don't think it's out of line to start wondering if he will come back 100% and if he can stay 100%. Sure, even at 90% he's better than probably 30 other TEs in the league. What happens if he loses a step, can't leap as high, keeps getting nicked up, etc. Sure, I get that you can say that about any player, but in his case he's spent a lot of time at the doctor's office.

Be that as it may, you have been harping on the "Gronk won't be Gronk" line a lot. There's nothing to back that up, other than your converstions with surgeons/orthapedic specialists who THINK that surgeries MAY have a cumulative effect where each surgery could sap a small percentage of a player's skill set, MAYBE. You've also posted (I believe) that Gronk will be more susceptible to re-injury, when there is no data to support that belief, and that the Pats would play him on a limited set of plays until close to game 8, when there were no reports to that effect.Perhaps you have no agenda, but your posts suggest otherwise.

Maybe you just haven't been around long enough, but the guy you're talking to has provided more solid Patriots' info and analysis than any other person on this board. Often times with stuff that the typical person, or even reporter, has access to. When he talks about Patriot stuff, I give him more weight than most. I've also found him to be very unbiased when discussing them in the past.

 

[Bayhawks]

Certainly things are looking rosier for Gronk now compared to a couple of months ago and for now it does not appear that he has had any setbacks. However, I am curious as to how much contact he's been taking (if any) so far in practice. The only video I've seen of him was conditioning or pass catching (but no contact drills or 11-on-11 full contact plays).

I have had issues with your "glass-half-empty" take on Gronkowski's situation most of the pre-season. It has smacked of some other motive; whether you have league-mates who frequent these boards, or traded him away (and wanted to validate that decision), you have focused on negatives (and in some cases, made up negatives) about Gronkowski news.In this case, however, I think you are spot on. I believe (and this is just my belief, based on nothing other than how I've interpreted what I've read recently) that the recent news is part of Gronkowski's rehab, not an attempt to get him ready to play week 1. He is at the point where he is able to start getting ready to play football, and taking part in drills, while wearing full pads would seem to be part of that. If there were reports of him taking full contact (or even partial contact), I might think differently, but I still think he will play in week 3. I would be surprised if he plays in week 2, since they only have 4 days between games, and I would be shocked if he plays in week 1.

I have no agenda on anything I post. I pretty much have retired from playing fantasy football (play in only one long standing league). Don't own him, have had no drafts, am not prepping to draft, have no league mates to fool, pretty much have no reason to like or dislike him.I have spoken to a few surgeons and orthopedic specialists. In general, they have said that no one surgery taken as an individual procedure is usually something to get too concerned about, but each surgery may take a little bit off someone's total skill set. Depending upon the surgery, maybe it's a percent point or two. But collectively having more and more surgery is usually not a good thing. In the span of what, 4 years, Gronk has had 2 back surgeries, multiple arm surgeries, ankle surgery, and maybe others we have no knowledge about (could have been in the offseason and not noteworthy on an injury report). He certain is a great talent, but he obviously has been beaten up a bunch in a short timeframe.

Maybe he plays 10 more years. Maybe he plays 3 more years. Certainly no one knows what will happen. Maybe he will have a long stretch of good health or maybe he will continue to get banged up. But I don't think it's out of line to start wondering if he will come back 100% and if he can stay 100%. Sure, even at 90% he's better than probably 30 other TEs in the league. What happens if he loses a step, can't leap as high, keeps getting nicked up, etc. Sure, I get that you can say that about any player, but in his case he's spent a lot of time at the doctor's office.

Be that as it may, you have been harping on the "Gronk won't be Gronk" line a lot. There's nothing to back that up, other than your converstions with surgeons/orthapedic specialists who THINK that surgeries MAY have a cumulative effect where each surgery could sap a small percentage of a player's skill set, MAYBE. You've also posted (I believe) that Gronk will be more susceptible to re-injury, when there is no data to support that belief, and that the Pats would play him on a limited set of plays until close to game 8, when there were no reports to that effect.Perhaps you have no agenda, but your posts suggest otherwise.

Maybe you just haven't been around long enough, but the guy you're talking to has provided more solid Patriots' info and analysis than any other person on this board. Often times with stuff that the typical person, or even reporter, has access to. When he talks about Patriot stuff, I give him more weight than most. I've also found him to be very unbiased when discussing them in the past.

I've been around plenty long enough. What "the guy I'm talking to" provided in this particular situation was nothing buy conjecture on his part. He admitted as much in his last post. Go back through this thread. He has posted a lot of speculation on his part, and virtually all of it has been negative. From speculating that Gronkowski might be limited to 20-25 snaps when he comes back, to not producing his normal stats for 1/2 the season, to not being 100% until week 12, he has speculated a lot in this thread (with nothing substantial to base it on), and it has been largely negative.

I'm not making it up, I'm not attacking him. He says I was wrong when I suggested he was purposely trying to downplay Gronk, and I have no reason to believe he isn't telling the truth. But the fact is that he has been very negative in this thread, and there isn't a lot to base that negativity on.

 

[ponchsox]

Rob Gronkowski (back) practiced for the fifth consecutive day Friday.
The Boston Herald doesn't expect Gronkowski to play in the opener against the Bills. Neither do we. However, Week 2 "remains in play." The Patriots have a quick turn-around next week when they take on the Jets on Thursday night. Week 3 is a more realistic date to expect the return of Gronk.

 

[ebsteelers]

He plays week 2. It gives him a longer turn around to see how his body feels headed into week 3.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Gotta say I simply don't understand every report saying he's practicing every day and then just definitively stating "but he won't play".

 

[ponchsox]

Gotta say I simply don't understand every report saying he's practicing every day and then just definitively stating "but he won't play".

Unless he doesn't make the trip or is ruled inactive on Sunday, I'm not buying this.

 

[ebsteelers]

If you have Gronk be near your damn computer 12:30 on Sunday when they say who is inactive or not.. Lucky the game is at 1 and there is no guessing game going into to the later games if you have a finley or celek paired with him

 

[Breesisdaman]

I hope they follow the reason of the team Doctors with Gronk. He has had too many injuries. I would hate to see an incredible career cut short because they didnt use caution

 

[chihawk]

Gotta say I simply don't understand every report saying he's practicing every day and then just definitively stating "but he won't play".

Yeah, I tend to agree with you, but I think it's a conditioning thing. He hasn't been doing much of anything for a long period of time and needs to get his conditioning back up to speed with the rest of the team. That probably takes some time. I think it would be different if you have gone through training camp, preseason, and then in the regular season you get an injury and return a couple of weeks later. When you start practicing again, you probably start playing pretty much right away. He really hasn't played or practiced much since November last year.

 

[T with T]

I picked up Sudfeld as Im a Gronk owner. I think he could be heavily relied on seeing as he will have to be hernandez/gronk in that offense. I read he is 6-7 and a good pass catcher. Brady is 8 for 11 on targets to him in preseason.... Could be a Julius thomas like day in BUFF Im thinking......

 

[Kenny Powers]

Gronk always conditioning

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Officially listed as doubtful.

 

[Modog814]

Officially listed as doubtful.

So you're saying there is a chance...

 

[dmac37]

From Rotoworld:

Rob Gronkowski (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills.
Gronkowski didn't travel with the team to Buffalo and won't play, as expected. He was able to practice on a limited basis for five straight days, but was listed as doubtful. Gronk is targeting a Week 3 return. Zach Sudfeld will start in his absence.


Source: Albert Breer on Twitter

 

[ponchsox]

With Amendola hurting again I bet he suits up on Thursday.

He's gonna have a monster year.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

With Amendola hurting again I bet he suits up on Thursday.

He's gonna have a monster year.

I don't know if he will be healthy enough to go on Thursday, but watching their game Sunday couldn't help but think that Brady desparately needs Gronk out there as a weapon.

Sigmund Bloom @SigmundBloom

[SIZE=12pt]Amendola and Thompkins each got 14 targets, with enough left over to get Vereen 10 and Edelman 9. Gronk's [/SIZE]#s will be huge upon return.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

 

[Modog814]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

Not sure I understand your reasoning here. Isn't it possible he wasn't ready to play a limited role on Sunday but is ready to play a limited role 5 days later?

 

[Bayhawks]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

Not sure I understand your reasoning here. Isn't it possible he wasn't ready to play a limited role on Sunday but is ready to play a limited role 5 days later?

With Thur night games, NFL teams don't have time to do as in-depth of a game-plan as they would normally. That, (IMO) is one of the reasons that TNF games tended to be below average games last year. I doubt that Gronkowski will play Thursday, because they likely won't want to take the time to work him into the game-plan, only to have him unable to play at the last minute, thus wasting some of their already scarce game-planning time this week.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

Not sure I understand your reasoning here. Isn't it possible he wasn't ready to play a limited role on Sunday but is ready to play a limited role 5 days later?

Oh sure... it's possible. But we're talking about a ~100-day recovery, so it just seems unlikely that these four days would be the play/not play window. Especially with an additional ten days available following Week 2.

 

[Leonidas]

Any chance BB just sacrificed the roster spot to mess with the opponents gameplanning and preparation?

He is a sneaky dude, & maybe in his opinion it's worth a roster spot for defensive cord to have to worry about Gronk even if he won't be playing.

Some of you are trying waaaaayy too hard to manufacture reasons to argue that Gronk won't have significant value.

I own Gronk in both of my leagues - one league I split with my bro and we own him there. Oh yea, my bro also owns him in his league... WE ARE ALL IN ON GRONK!

Honestly, you wouldn't put what I'm saying past BB? Sneakiest coach in the NFL & now that I'm so vested, I'm a little worried.

About the same chance I win the lottery this year.

JMO

 

[Banger]

he'll play when he's ready. Not an earth shattering thought but it doesn't matter how days between games, etc. They aren't going to hold him out if he can play. There are no free wins in the NFL as you can see with the Buffalo game yesterday. Every game counts and every game is tough so as soon as he's physically able to play he will play.

 

[Arwald]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

Not sure I understand your reasoning here. Isn't it possible he wasn't ready to play a limited role on Sunday but is ready to play a limited role 5 days later?

Oh sure... it's possible. But we're talking about a ~100-day recovery, so it just seems unlikely that these four days would be the play/not play window. Especially with an additional ten days available following Week 2.

Well the point after which he reaches the level that BB will feel good about letting him play is a discrete point in time. We dont know when it will be, but you can make arguments for everything. For example, it could be clever of him to start him against the Jets because he has a much longer recovery period after his first game back to football then he would normally have (10 days against 4days). Moreover it would take pressure of Amandola, who is cleary not 100% and might be unexpected by the jets (to a certain degree).

 

[mikel0254]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

Not sure I understand your reasoning here. Isn't it possible he wasn't ready to play a limited role on Sunday but is ready to play a limited role 5 days later?

Oh sure... it's possible. But we're talking about a ~100-day recovery, so it just seems unlikely that these four days would be the play/not play window. Especially with an additional ten days available following Week 2.

He practiced all week leading up to the BUF game. If he's that close, an extra couple days could definitely make a difference between playing and not.

 

[Bayhawks]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

Not sure I understand your reasoning here. Isn't it possible he wasn't ready to play a limited role on Sunday but is ready to play a limited role 5 days later?

Oh sure... it's possible. But we're talking about a ~100-day recovery, so it just seems unlikely that these four days would be the play/not play window. Especially with an additional ten days available following Week 2.

He practiced all week leading up to the BUF game. If he's that close, an extra couple days could definitely make a difference between playing and not.

He practiced on a limited basis all week. He has stayed completely on schedule, according to all reports, as far as his rehab schedule goes. That schedule called for him to begin football-related activities prior to week 1. However, he has no OTAs, no training camp, no football activities all off-season. It is very likely that his limited practices last week were more conditioning in nature than actual game prep. That (IMO) is likely to be the same this week. He will have had 3 weeks of this "conditioning" going into the week 3 game. I believe that is the earliest we will see him playing in a game.

 

[Modog814]

I'd love to see it, but if he wasn't ready to play a limited role Sunday I doubt he's ready Thursday.

Guessing we're still looking at Week 3 or Week 4 for a reintro and if everything goes well a full complement of snaps Week 4 or Week 5.

Not sure I understand your reasoning here. Isn't it possible he wasn't ready to play a limited role on Sunday but is ready to play a limited role 5 days later?

Oh sure... it's possible. But we're talking about a ~100-day recovery, so it just seems unlikely that these four days would be the play/not play window. Especially with an additional ten days available following Week 2.

He practiced all week leading up to the BUF game. If he's that close, an extra couple days could definitely make a difference between playing and not.

This is what I was kind of getting at. He's obviously close and when you're that close, every day could make a difference, especially since I believe in Gronks case it might be more about conditioning at this point than about recovery.

I'm just saying you can look at this 2 ways...1) he wasn't ready for week 1 so with there only being 4 days between game 1 and game 2, it's unlikely he'll be ready for game 2.

Or 2) He maybe could have gone week 1, but with the short week, it might be too much to go week 2 as well. So they could have been holding him out week 1 to give him an extra 4 days with the pure intention of playing him week 2 knowing that he'll get the longer recovery period after his first action.

 

[ponchsox]

Rob Gronkowski (back) remained limited in Tuesday's practice.
There's supposedly an "outside shot" Gronk suits up against the Jets Thursday, but we don't expect him back until Week 3 at the earliest. Were Gronk to be a surprise active vs. Gang Green, he'd almost certainly be on a limited snap count.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Again, it prolly won't come until week 3 or later, but with all the loss of weapons in the offseason and with what the new pieces did(n't) do in Week 1.. how does Gronk at even 80% of his former self not go for 10+ TD's this year?

I am extremely bullish here. Table-pounding buy if you don't already have him.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Gotta believe week 3 is it, schedule starts to get a little tougher and those 10 days might make the difference.

 

[mbuehner]

You know whats scary? Gronk may be back just fine this season, and he may not live up to his draft position for a totally unexpected reason.

The rest of the pack.

Last year in week 1 the top 12 TEs combined for 137FPs. This year they combined for 197FPs. Thats a 44% increase. So what could that mean? Well lets start with the obvious caveat- its only 1 week.

But... everybody is trying to have a TE like Gronk and Graham. And there are some actual contenders out there, and the offenses to feed them. Jared Cook had the 15th best TE fantasy performance since 1995 this week. Julius Thomas, Vernon David, Jason Whitten, and Owen Daniels all had multi-TD days. Jordan Cameron, Finley, Celek, and Gates all looked like they could have big days ahead of them.

Point being- we all valued Gronk based on his value relative to the other 11 or so starting TEs we will face (and discounted him for the missed time) expecting the average starting TEs to have a similar field to last season and recent history. IF this ends up being a renaissance year for tight ends, that value gap has shrunk dramatically. Julius Thomas was a very late or waver wire lottery pick... thats one thing, but if guys like Jared Cook and Jordan Cameron end up within a point or two a game of what Gronk gets ya, instead of 5 or 6 points (or more), that relative value is a lot smaller than the guys we passed over to get gronk in the 4th or 5th rounds compared to where the other teams got their TEs. We could have a problem.

Not an established worry yet, but something to keep an eye on. If it were to hold up, Gronks name value might be worth more than his relative value (especially given the injury risk) at some point this season.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

You know whats scary? Gronk may be back just fine this season, and he may not live up to his draft position for a totally unexpected reason.

The rest of the pack.

Last year in week 1 the top 12 TEs combined for 137FPs. This year they combined for 197FPs. Thats a 44% increase. So what could that mean? Well lets start with the obvious caveat- its only 1 week.

But... everybody is trying to have a TE like Gronk and Graham. And there are some actual contenders out there, and the offenses to feed them. Jared Cook had the 15th best TE fantasy performance since 1995 this week. Julius Thomas, Vernon David, Jason Whitten, and Owen Daniels all had multi-TD days. Jordan Cameron, Finley, Celek, and Gates all looked like they could have big days ahead of them.

Point being- we all valued Gronk based on his value relative to the other 11 or so starting TEs we will face (and discounted him for the missed time) expecting the average starting TEs to have a similar field to last season and recent history. IF this ends up being a renaissance year for tight ends, that value gap has shrunk dramatically. Julius Thomas was a very late or waver wire lottery pick... thats one thing, but if guys like Jared Cook and Jordan Cameron end up within a point or two a game of what Gronk gets ya, instead of 5 or 6 points (or more), that relative value is a lot smaller than the guys we passed over to get gronk in the 4th or 5th rounds compared to where the other teams got their TEs. We could have a problem.

Not an established worry yet, but something to keep an eye on. If it were to hold up, Gronks name value might be worth more than his relative value (especially given the injury risk) at some point this season.

Outstanding post. Cook and Cameron look very much for real. Those 2 alone make your point, and as you said there are a host of others.