Team Spotlight: New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

539 pass attempts for 340 receptions, 3998 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 453 rushes for 1917 yards and 15 touchdowns.

QB

Tom Brady: 319 of 505 passing for 3764 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 36 rushes for 69 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Brian Hoyer: 21 of 34 passing for 234 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jeff Rowe: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Fred Taylor: 102 rushes for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns; 7 receptions for 56 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin Faulk: 81 rushes for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns; 36 receptions for 310 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Laurence Maroney: 163 rushes for 691 yards and 6 touchdowns; 21 receptions for 186 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Sammy Morris: 41 rushes for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 20 rushes for 84 yards and 1 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Randy Moss: 73 receptions for 1059 yards and 11 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: 67 receptions for 726 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Julian Edelman: 36 receptions for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brandon Tate: 26 receptions for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Torry Holt: 16 receptions for 219 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Taylor Price: 9 receptions for 116 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Sam Aiken: 9 receptions for 121 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Isaiah Stanback: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Alge Crumpler: 20 receptions for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Rob Gronkowski: 9 receptions for 91 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Aaron Hernandez: 5 receptions for 54 yards and 0 touchdowns.

 

[The Ref]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

539 pass attempts for 340 receptions, 3998 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 453 rushes for 1917 yards and 15 touchdowns.

QB

Tom Brady: 319 of 505 passing for 3764 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 36 rushes for 69 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Brian Hoyer: 21 of 34 passing for 234 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jeff Rowe: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Fred Taylor: 102 rushes for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns; 7 receptions for 56 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin Faulk: 81 rushes for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns; 36 receptions for 310 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Laurence Maroney: 163 rushes for 691 yards and 6 touchdowns; 21 receptions for 186 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Sammy Morris: 41 rushes for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 20 rushes for 84 yards and 1 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Randy Moss: 73 receptions for 1059 yards and 11 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: 67 receptions for 726 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Julian Edelman: 36 receptions for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brandon Tate: 26 receptions for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Torry Holt: 16 receptions for 219 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Taylor Price: 9 receptions for 116 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Sam Aiken: 9 receptions for 121 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Isaiah Stanback: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Alge Crumpler: 20 receptions for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Rob Gronkowski: 9 receptions for 91 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Aaron Hernandez: 5 receptions for 54 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I think the TE production, specificaly Gronkowski, is low. This team will have to pass the ball to win while the D is being ironed out and Welker wont be 100%. Maybe i'm just a homer, but 500-600 yards and 6-8 TD was more what I was thinking.

 

[David Yudkin]

For comparison's sake . . .

2009

390 592 4540 28 13

466 1921 19

2008

339 534 3790 21 11

513 2278 21

2007

403 586 4859 50 9

451 1849 17

2006

326 527 3590 25 12

499 1969 20

2005

352 564 4322 28 15

439 1512 16

 

[Jewell]

Wes Welker: 67 receptions for 726 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

To reach this projection, Maurile, you must be anticipating Welker returning earlier than most are predicting. Is this based on a gut feeling or inside information?

 

[munchkin]

If they drafted Gronkowski and Hernandez to catch a total of 15 balls then this offense is in trouble. Welker should start the year on PUP so he will miss at least the first 6 games and hopefully more to assure his knee is stable. they can't rush Welker back. Last year Welker took a beating with Moss being inconsistent and no-one else to pick up the slack. Edelman, Tate, Gronkowski and Hernandez will have to worked into the equation successfully or it will be a long season. The team needs to see some creativity from O'Brien this year.

 

[AngryPatriot]

Hard thing to do but I think these #'s are way low, especially for TE's (60+), Edelman (60-75), Brady (33/12), Price... RB's are tough to figure at this point but the yearly maroneySUCKERhope dis-ease has me bumping him up, lol. This offense is going to roll this year.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I've got Welker playing 10 games -- sitting out the first 6 on PUP. I've seen some indications that he'll likely miss at least 8 games; but I've also seen Welker come back before everyone thought he would in the past. So he's a hard one to project right now.

 

[Cassius]

Extremely optimistic Welker prediction in my opinion. Putting aside when he gets back, I'm not sure if he gets back to what he was in 2010. There aren't a lot of players that rely on cuts/sudden changes of direction more than Welker - it's basically what his game is all about. I don't know if he can completely regain that this year, if ever.

 

[David Yudkin]

QB

Tom Brady: 370 of 560 passing for 4370 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions; 30 rushes for 75 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Brian Hoyer: 20 of 30 passing for 160 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 10 rushes for 25 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Laurence Maroney: 160 rushes for 640 yards and 7 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 90 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Fred Taylor: 120 rushes for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 40 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Sammy Morris: 80 rushes for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 75 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin Faulk: 60 rushes for 300 yards and 1 touchdowns; 35 receptions for 300 yards and 1 touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 20 rushes for 80 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Randy Moss: 75 receptions for 1125 yards and 12 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Julian Edelman: 60 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Torry Holt: 45 receptions for 585 yards and 3 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: 35 receptions for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brandon Tate: 25 receptions for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Taylor Price: 20 receptions for 260 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Rob Gronkowski: 35 receptions for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Alge Crumpler: 20 receptions for 210 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Aaron Hernandez: 15 receptions for 150 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Total

390-590-4530-30

485-1990-17

 

[bostonfred]

Both of you are projecting

- the lowest rushing totals for New England since the Belichick era began despite them probably needing to run more until Welker returns

- Fred Taylor to get 120 carries while not starting after he missed ten games last year

- DY has Faulk to improve on last year's numbers at age 34

- Maurile has Morris improving on last year's numbers at age 33

And somehow, both of you have Maroney getting the lowest number of carries in his career (not counting his injured season in 2008).

That seems wrong to me. And it's not just you guys. It seems like people are trying to come up with numbers where Maroney is a complete bust, because they feel like Belichick hates him. But while he was benched down the stretch last year, it seems like the real test is whether they bring in someone to replace him, not whether they lean on the guys on the team right now. So far, they haven't seriously addressed the running back position in free agency or the draft. They did pick up an undrafted free agent, and there are still guys like Julius Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber, and more who could be available if the Pats are willing to use some of those extra picks next year to imrpove their team. But if you're trying to project their stats, and update them as news develops, it seems more realistic to project Maroney at 180-200 carries, and maybe even more than that.

 

[Serenity Now]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

539 pass attempts for 340 receptions, 3998 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 453 rushes for 1917 yards and 15 touchdowns.

QB

Tom Brady: 319 of 505 passing for 3764 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 36 rushes for 69 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Brian Hoyer: 21 of 34 passing for 234 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jeff Rowe: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Fred Taylor: 102 rushes for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns; 7 receptions for 56 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin Faulk: 81 rushes for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns; 36 receptions for 310 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Laurence Maroney: 163 rushes for 691 yards and 6 touchdowns; 21 receptions for 186 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Sammy Morris: 41 rushes for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 20 rushes for 84 yards and 1 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Randy Moss: 73 receptions for 1059 yards and 11 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: 67 receptions for 726 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Julian Edelman: 36 receptions for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brandon Tate: 26 receptions for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Torry Holt: 16 receptions for 219 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Taylor Price: 9 receptions for 116 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Sam Aiken: 9 receptions for 121 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Isaiah Stanback: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Alge Crumpler: 20 receptions for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Rob Gronkowski: 9 receptions for 91 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Aaron Hernandez: 5 receptions for 54 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I think the TE production, specificaly Gronkowski, is low. This team will have to pass the ball to win while the D is being ironed out and Welker wont be 100%. Maybe i'm just a homer, but 500-600 yards and 6-8 TD was more what I was thinking.

If the Pats make adequate use of a pass catching TE, it will be the first time in a long time.

 

[Spike]

QBTom Brady: 370 of 560 passing for 3764 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 30 rushes for 75 yards and 1 touchdowns.Brian Hoyer: 20 of 30 passing for 234 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 10 rushes for 25 yards and 0 touchdowns.RBLaurence Maroney: 160 rushes for 640 yards and 7 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 90 yards and 0 touchdowns.Fred Taylor: 120 rushes for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns; 5 receptions for 40 yards and 0 touchdowns.Sammy Morris: 80 rushes for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns; 10 receptions for 75 yards and 0 touchdowns.Kevin Faulk: 60 rushes for 300 yards and 1 touchdowns; 35 receptions for 300 yards and 1 touchdowns.BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 20 rushes for 80 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.WRRandy Moss: 75 receptions for 1125 yards and 12 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.Julian Edelman: 60 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Torry Holt: 45 receptions for 585 yards and 3 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.Wes Welker: 35 receptions for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 25 receptions for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.Taylor Price: 20 receptions for 260 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.TERob Gronkowski: 35 receptions for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns.Alge Crumpler: 20 receptions for 210 yards and 1 touchdowns.Aaron Hernandez: 15 receptions for 150 yards and 0 touchdowns.Total 390-590-4530-30485-1990-17

My guesses are very much in-line with David's, I'm sure, well-thought out projections.

 

[David Yudkin]

Both of you are projecting - the lowest rushing totals for New England since the Belichick era began despite them probably needing to run more until Welker returns

I have the Pats rushing totals at 485-1990-17 which is nowhere near the lowest total since BB got there.

- Fred Taylor to get 120 carries while not starting after he missed ten games last year

Taylor averaged 10 carries a game last year. If he plays 12 games instead of 6 like last year, that would be 120 carries.

- DY has Faulk to improve on last year's numbers at age 34

Faulk had 636 yfs and 3 TD last year. This time around, I have him for 600 and 2. With Welker out, I'm inclined to think that that's too low, but it's still slighltly less than 2009.

- Maurile has Morris improving on last year's numbers at age 33And somehow, both of you have Maroney getting the lowest number of carries in his career (not counting his injured season in 2008).

You make it sound like Maroney is the first option and in good favor. At this point, I don't think that that's true. Maroney fell into a lot of carries last year when the other guys get hurt. I don't see him at the top of the RB food chain any longer, so he will need injuries to others (and none to himself) to get back into the main swing of things. This is still a RBBC and I still think they may add someone else between now and opening day.

But if you're trying to project their stats, and update them as news develops, it seems more realistic to project Maroney at 180-200 carries, and maybe even more than that.

Given that Maroney was BENCHED when the other backs came back and after having fumbling issues, I am hard pressed to project that he is the lead dog and should get a career high in carries. After the injuries to FT and SM last year, Maroney was in position to take over the RB position and never give it up. But he didn't, and he still ended up with under 200 carries.As for the Pats philosophy, they added a WR and 2 TE in the draft, they added Holt, and they have Tate coming back. They really didn't do much RB wise. I still see them focusing on the pass. I don't see them doing much differently with Welker out.

 

[munchkin]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

539 pass attempts for 340 receptions, 3998 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 453 rushes for 1917 yards and 15 touchdowns.

QB

Tom Brady: 319 of 505 passing for 3764 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 36 rushes for 69 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Brian Hoyer: 21 of 34 passing for 234 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jeff Rowe: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Fred Taylor: 102 rushes for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns; 7 receptions for 56 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin Faulk: 81 rushes for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns; 36 receptions for 310 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Laurence Maroney: 163 rushes for 691 yards and 6 touchdowns; 21 receptions for 186 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Sammy Morris: 41 rushes for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 20 rushes for 84 yards and 1 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Randy Moss: 73 receptions for 1059 yards and 11 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: 67 receptions for 726 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Julian Edelman: 36 receptions for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Brandon Tate: 26 receptions for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Torry Holt: 16 receptions for 219 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Taylor Price: 9 receptions for 116 yards and 1 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Sam Aiken: 9 receptions for 121 yards and 1 touchdowns; 2rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Isaiah Stanback: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Alge Crumpler: 20 receptions for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Rob Gronkowski: 9 receptions for 91 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Aaron Hernandez: 5 receptions for 54 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I think the TE production, specificaly Gronkowski, is low. This team will have to pass the ball to win while the D is being ironed out and Welker wont be 100%. Maybe i'm just a homer, but 500-600 yards and 6-8 TD was more what I was thinking.

If the Pats make adequate use of a pass catching TE, it will be the first time in a long time.

The problem is the TE's have only been adequate despite their lofty draft positions. Graham and Watson both had inconsistent hands. Belichick has gone to the well once again in drafting Gronkowski and Hernandez. They will get an opportunity to excel. They need to do something to distract the Safeties or make them pay for doubling up on Moss.

 

[bostonfred]

If we're going to look at Maroney getting benched in the Jacksonville game, then we should look at some of the other backs played down the stretch, as well. To recap, after Maroney fumbled in a week 16 game against Jacksonville with playoff implications, he went in the doghouse and didn't come back out. We know that. And Morris and Taylor came in, with one of them playing well - Morris putting up 12/95/1 and Taylor putting up 11/35.

The following week, in an irrelevant week 17 matchup against Houston, Maroney again sat on the bench, although Brady came out early, too, with Hoyer throwing the last dozen passes. In that game, we got a less impressive 7 rushes for 9 yards from Morris, while Taylor got 7 carries for 33 yards and 2 TDs.

Finally, against Baltimore, the Pats had the most disasterous first five minutes ever, getting outscored 24-0. In that game, who got the work? It was Kevin Faulk with 14 carries for 52 yards, while Maroney got a carry for two yards, Sammy Morris got a carry for nine yards, and Fred Taylor had two carries for one yard. The only reason Faulk was in there was because they went to their all pass offense, which means keeping Faulk in the backfield for blitz pickup and swing passes. We'll never know whether that was the plan for the game or not because we only know what happened after the Ravens scored 24 unanswered points in the starting minutes of the game.

This RBBC thing didn't really work out for the Pats last year, and the reason is that the guys behind Maroney on the depth chart are all over 33. And while you're right that Maroney was benched for a stretch at the end of the season, he was benched for the rest of one game, sat out a meaningless game against Houston, and while he got a carry in the playoff game, that game was over almost as soon as it started.

The more relevant question for this year, is whether Maroney will continue to be in the doghouse for fumbling late last year. You seem to be implying that he will. And after all, Maroney had 4 fumbles on 194 carries last year. Then again, that means he had almost as many carries as Morris, Taylor and Faulk combined (198) and they combined for four fumbles. And since it was a goal line fumble that got Maroney benched, it's worth noting that Maroney also had more TDs (9) than those guys combined (8).

I'm not saying that Maroney is going to get 300 carries. I just think that it's odd that both of you are projecting him to get fewer carries than he did in each of his three healthy years when he's competing with three guys who are over 100 total years old. If you predict BJGE to take on more carries, I could understand it. It just seems like you're predicting him on the low end because you think he "should" be. I don't agree with that.

BTW - I missed the rush totals for Brady and Hoyer when I was counting carries earlier. That's where the disparity came from. Mea culpa.

 

[Cassius]

Pretty sure Maroney has the highest fantasy-words-typed:ability/production ratio in the history of the galaxy. I'm going to get Chase to look into this.

 

[Tau837]

QBTom Brady: 370 of 560 passing for 3764 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 30 rushes for 75 yards and 1 touchdowns.Brian Hoyer: 20 of 30 passing for 234 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 10 rushes for 25 yards and 0 touchdowns....Total 390-590-4530-30

You forgot to change the QB numbers to match your passing totals.

 

[David Yudkin]

QBTom Brady: 370 of 560 passing for 3764 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions; 30 rushes for 75 yards and 1 touchdowns.Brian Hoyer: 20 of 30 passing for 234 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 10 rushes for 25 yards and 0 touchdowns....Total 390-590-4530-30

You forgot to change the QB numbers to match your passing totals.

Fixed.

 

[David Yudkin]

If we're going to look at Maroney getting benched in the Jacksonville game, then we should look at some of the other backs played down the stretch, as well. To recap, after Maroney fumbled in a week 16 game against Jacksonville with playoff implications, he went in the doghouse and didn't come back out. We know that. And Morris and Taylor came in, with one of them playing well - Morris putting up 12/95/1 and Taylor putting up 11/35. The following week, in an irrelevant week 17 matchup against Houston, Maroney again sat on the bench, although Brady came out early, too, with Hoyer throwing the last dozen passes. In that game, we got a less impressive 7 rushes for 9 yards from Morris, while Taylor got 7 carries for 33 yards and 2 TDs. Finally, against Baltimore, the Pats had the most disasterous first five minutes ever, getting outscored 24-0. In that game, who got the work? It was Kevin Faulk with 14 carries for 52 yards, while Maroney got a carry for two yards, Sammy Morris got a carry for nine yards, and Fred Taylor had two carries for one yard. The only reason Faulk was in there was because they went to their all pass offense, which means keeping Faulk in the backfield for blitz pickup and swing passes. We'll never know whether that was the plan for the game or not because we only know what happened after the Ravens scored 24 unanswered points in the starting minutes of the game. This RBBC thing didn't really work out for the Pats last year, and the reason is that the guys behind Maroney on the depth chart are all over 33. And while you're right that Maroney was benched for a stretch at the end of the season, he was benched for the rest of one game, sat out a meaningless game against Houston, and while he got a carry in the playoff game, that game was over almost as soon as it started. The more relevant question for this year, is whether Maroney will continue to be in the doghouse for fumbling late last year. You seem to be implying that he will. And after all, Maroney had 4 fumbles on 194 carries last year. Then again, that means he had almost as many carries as Morris, Taylor and Faulk combined (198) and they combined for four fumbles. And since it was a goal line fumble that got Maroney benched, it's worth noting that Maroney also had more TDs (9) than those guys combined (8). I'm not saying that Maroney is going to get 300 carries. I just think that it's odd that both of you are projecting him to get fewer carries than he did in each of his three healthy years when he's competing with three guys who are over 100 total years old. If you predict BJGE to take on more carries, I could understand it. It just seems like you're predicting him on the low end because you think he "should" be. I don't agree with that. BTW - I missed the rush totals for Brady and Hoyer when I was counting carries earlier. That's where the disparity came from. Mea culpa.

As I already mentioned, I think the Pats will add someone to the RB mix between now and Week One, but until then we can only go with who is on the roster.What I don't get is why having older backs is tantamount with them either falling apart completely or being totally ineffective. Yes, they may get banged up easier and COULD become less effective, but Taylor had a 4.3 ypc, Morris a 4.4 ypc, and Faulk a 5.4 ypc. Maroney -- the youngest guy by far -- clocked in at a 3.9 (admittedly in a lot more attempts).I guess where I am confused is that it sounds like you are saying that either the old guys SHOULDN'T be playing or that for some reason they WON'T be playing (I can't comprehend which).Taylor is going to be 34 this year. I slotted him for 120 carries. A number of backs have had 120 carries at 34 or older including John Riggins, Tony Dorsett, Marcus Allen, Emmitt Smith, Earnest Byner, and a couple guys from several generations ago. Most of those guys had way more than 120 carries.If they find a guy that is younger and with some utility, they might add him if the price is right. The question we should be asking is if one of the backs had to go . . . which one would it be?

 

[TWP]

Chalk me up as another Pats homer who thinks Maroney will get a bigger share of the load. He has never been great or lived up to his draft position. But he also has stayed pretty consistently the number one back on the team when healthy. If they were going to change that, they would have brought someone else in already. I actually think BB likes Maroney and sees more potential in him than people think. Just a non-quantitative opinion from watching the team over the years, but the arguments for why Maroney will get more carries than the projections in this thread just feel more correct to me.

 

[Getinthemix]

If we're going to look at Maroney getting benched in the Jacksonville game, then we should look at some of the other backs played down the stretch, as well. To recap, after Maroney fumbled in a week 16 game against Jacksonville with playoff implications, he went in the doghouse and didn't come back out. We know that. And Morris and Taylor came in, with one of them playing well - Morris putting up 12/95/1 and Taylor putting up 11/35.

The following week, in an irrelevant week 17 matchup against Houston, Maroney again sat on the bench, although Brady came out early, too, with Hoyer throwing the last dozen passes. In that game, we got a less impressive 7 rushes for 9 yards from Morris, while Taylor got 7 carries for 33 yards and 2 TDs.

Finally, against Baltimore, the Pats had the most disasterous first five minutes ever, getting outscored 24-0. In that game, who got the work? It was Kevin Faulk with 14 carries for 52 yards, while Maroney got a carry for two yards, Sammy Morris got a carry for nine yards, and Fred Taylor had two carries for one yard. The only reason Faulk was in there was because they went to their all pass offense, which means keeping Faulk in the backfield for blitz pickup and swing passes. We'll never know whether that was the plan for the game or not because we only know what happened after the Ravens scored 24 unanswered points in the starting minutes of the game.

This RBBC thing didn't really work out for the Pats last year, and the reason is that the guys behind Maroney on the depth chart are all over 33. And while you're right that Maroney was benched for a stretch at the end of the season, he was benched for the rest of one game, sat out a meaningless game against Houston, and while he got a carry in the playoff game, that game was over almost as soon as it started.

The more relevant question for this year, is whether Maroney will continue to be in the doghouse for fumbling late last year. You seem to be implying that he will. And after all, Maroney had 4 fumbles on 194 carries last year. Then again, that means he had almost as many carries as Morris, Taylor and Faulk combined (198) and they combined for four fumbles. And since it was a goal line fumble that got Maroney benched, it's worth noting that Maroney also had more TDs (9) than those guys combined (8).

I'm not saying that Maroney is going to get 300 carries. I just think that it's odd that both of you are projecting him to get fewer carries than he did in each of his three healthy years when he's competing with three guys who are over 100 total years old. If you predict BJGE to take on more carries, I could understand it. It just seems like you're predicting him on the low end because you think he "should" be. I don't agree with that.

BTW - I missed the rush totals for Brady and Hoyer when I was counting carries earlier. That's where the disparity came from. Mea culpa.

As I already mentioned, I think the Pats will add someone to the RB mix between now and Week One, but until then we can only go with who is on the roster.What I don't get is why having older backs is tantamount with them either falling apart completely or being totally ineffective. Yes, they may get banged up easier and COULD become less effective, but Taylor had a 4.3 ypc, Morris a 4.4 ypc, and Faulk a 5.4 ypc. Maroney -- the youngest guy by far -- clocked in at a 3.9 (admittedly in a lot more attempts).

I guess where I am confused is that it sounds like you are saying that either the old guys SHOULDN'T be playing or that for some reason they WON'T be playing (I can't comprehend which).

Taylor is going to be 34 this year. I slotted him for 120 carries. A number of backs have had 120 carries at 34 or older including John Riggins, Tony Dorsett, Marcus Allen, Emmitt Smith, Earnest Byner, and a couple guys from several generations ago. Most of those guys had way more than 120 carries.

If they find a guy that is younger and with some utility, they might add him if the price is right. The question we should be asking is if one of the backs had to go . . . which one would it be?

Only one in the last decade. Football has changed considerably since the 80's and early 90's. Defenders are considerably bigger and faster, which is why you haven't seen anyone in the last 5 years do this. It kind of makes Thomas Jones even more amazing if he has a good year this year.

 

[womb]

WRJulian Edelman: 60 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 25 receptions for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I was thinking along this line for these two young receivers, but I have them closer to each other evn though the total is the same. Julian Edelman: 45 receptions for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 40 receptions for 500 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.No solid basis for the projection other than I trust that BB selected Tate fully knowing that he will be a rookie this year and had time to study the passing game last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

WRJulian Edelman: 60 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 25 receptions for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I was thinking along this line for these two young receivers, but I have them closer to each other evn though the total is the same. Julian Edelman: 45 receptions for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 40 receptions for 500 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.No solid basis for the projection other than I trust that BB selected Tate fully knowing that he will be a rookie this year and had time to study the passing game last year.

I see Edelman playing extensively for Welker (and the main beneficiary), who I don't believe will be back to mid-November and probably not playing until Thanksgiving. The issue I see with Tate is him getting much playing time. I would guess Moss won't sit much, Edelman will sit some, and the other guys will rotate in on 3 and 4 receiver sets.Looking at past history, Branch had 43 receptions as a rookie and Givens had 9. Both had a lot easier road to earning playing time than the young guys do now.The only season the Pats had three players catch 40 passes was in 2007 (which we all know was a record breaking season). That year, Welker, Moss, Stallworth, and Faulk accomplished it. In poking around various places, it seems like there are a lot of candidates thta could be in mix that could get 40 receptions, but clearly not all of them will.

 

[munchkin]

WRJulian Edelman: 60 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 25 receptions for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I was thinking along this line for these two young receivers, but I have them closer to each other evn though the total is the same. Julian Edelman: 45 receptions for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 40 receptions for 500 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.No solid basis for the projection other than I trust that BB selected Tate fully knowing that he will be a rookie this year and had time to study the passing game last year.

I see Edelman playing extensively for Welker (and the main beneficiary), who I don't believe will be back to mid-November and probably not playing until Thanksgiving. The issue I see with Tate is him getting much playing time. I would guess Moss won't sit much, Edelman will sit some, and the other guys will rotate in on 3 and 4 receiver sets.Looking at past history, Branch had 43 receptions as a rookie and Givens had 9. Both had a lot easier road to earning playing time than the young guys do now.The only season the Pats had three players catch 40 passes was in 2007 (which we all know was a record breaking season). That year, Welker, Moss, Stallworth, and Faulk accomplished it. In poking around various places, it seems like there are a lot of candidates thta could be in mix that could get 40 receptions, but clearly not all of them will.

Tate has had a year to learn the playbook. Holt could be the odd man out in that he sees less of the field as the season rolls on and truly becomes depth backup. As long as Tate can be in the right place at the right time consistently enough for Brady to trust him then you have to get the upside player on the field as much as possible. But that certainly is an unknown.

 

[David Yudkin]

WRJulian Edelman: 60 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 25 receptions for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I was thinking along this line for these two young receivers, but I have them closer to each other evn though the total is the same. Julian Edelman: 45 receptions for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 40 receptions for 500 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.No solid basis for the projection other than I trust that BB selected Tate fully knowing that he will be a rookie this year and had time to study the passing game last year.

I see Edelman playing extensively for Welker (and the main beneficiary), who I don't believe will be back to mid-November and probably not playing until Thanksgiving. The issue I see with Tate is him getting much playing time. I would guess Moss won't sit much, Edelman will sit some, and the other guys will rotate in on 3 and 4 receiver sets.Looking at past history, Branch had 43 receptions as a rookie and Givens had 9. Both had a lot easier road to earning playing time than the young guys do now.The only season the Pats had three players catch 40 passes was in 2007 (which we all know was a record breaking season). That year, Welker, Moss, Stallworth, and Faulk accomplished it. In poking around various places, it seems like there are a lot of candidates thta could be in mix that could get 40 receptions, but clearly not all of them will.

Tate has had a year to learn the playbook. Holt could be the odd man out in that he sees less of the field as the season rolls on and truly becomes depth backup. As long as Tate can be in the right place at the right time consistently enough for Brady to trust him then you have to get the upside player on the field as much as possible. But that certainly is an unknown.

Most teams think more like this, but generally not the Pats. BB has seemingly gone out of his way to NOT play young players in the past (although with a younger squad last year he didn't really have a choice). There were plenty og games (sepcifically in 2007) when there were a lot of opportunities to get rookies, backups, and younger guys some snaps but instead he left the starters in until the last minute or two. Overall, I would say that BB loves his vets and has been somewhat not great for getting others playing time.The Pats have signed a lot of guys in their 30s over the years and have played them quite a bit. They never seemed to be depth only guys, they usually made an attempt to integrate them on the field and they usually saw a fair amount of snaps.As for Holt/Tate/Price, Holt has proven that he can get open in other systems and already can read defenses. I'm guessing Tate and Price need to hone those skills. I believe the Pats will move them along slowly unless they have to play them.

 

[Pat Patriot]

WRJulian Edelman: 60 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 25 receptions for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.

I was thinking along this line for these two young receivers, but I have them closer to each other evn though the total is the same. Julian Edelman: 45 receptions for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.Brandon Tate: 40 receptions for 500 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns.No solid basis for the projection other than I trust that BB selected Tate fully knowing that he will be a rookie this year and had time to study the passing game last year.

I see Edelman playing extensively for Welker (and the main beneficiary), who I don't believe will be back to mid-November and probably not playing until Thanksgiving. The issue I see with Tate is him getting much playing time. I would guess Moss won't sit much, Edelman will sit some, and the other guys will rotate in on 3 and 4 receiver sets.Looking at past history, Branch had 43 receptions as a rookie and Givens had 9. Both had a lot easier road to earning playing time than the young guys do now.The only season the Pats had three players catch 40 passes was in 2007 (which we all know was a record breaking season). That year, Welker, Moss, Stallworth, and Faulk accomplished it. In poking around various places, it seems like there are a lot of candidates thta could be in mix that could get 40 receptions, but clearly not all of them will.

Tate has had a year to learn the playbook. Holt could be the odd man out in that he sees less of the field as the season rolls on and truly becomes depth backup. As long as Tate can be in the right place at the right time consistently enough for Brady to trust him then you have to get the upside player on the field as much as possible. But that certainly is an unknown.

Most teams think more like this, but generally not the Pats. BB has seemingly gone out of his way to NOT play young players in the past (although with a younger squad last year he didn't really have a choice). There were plenty og games (sepcifically in 2007) when there were a lot of opportunities to get rookies, backups, and younger guys some snaps but instead he left the starters in until the last minute or two. Overall, I would say that BB loves his vets and has been somewhat not great for getting others playing time.The Pats have signed a lot of guys in their 30s over the years and have played them quite a bit. They never seemed to be depth only guys, they usually made an attempt to integrate them on the field and they usually saw a fair amount of snaps.As for Holt/Tate/Price, Holt has proven that he can get open in other systems and already can read defenses. I'm guessing Tate and Price need to hone those skills. I believe the Pats will move them along slowly unless they have to play them.

We all know that an injury is likely to resolve the issue but when Welker comes back Holt is a candidate to be cut. Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Price, Aiken thats 6. I cant see any of those 6 being cut. However, if Holt is productive it is entirely possible that Price would get a mysterious injury.Also, if Maurile's projections are correct, the Pats are in for a long year. If Maroney, Holt, Tate and Gronkowski/Hernandez are ALL non-productive their record is likely in the 7-9 or 8-8 range. I dont think things are that bad. They have a tough schedule but the toughest games are at home. I am projecting an 11-5 season. I think Maurile is overly optimistic on Welker and a bit pessimistic on Holt, Tate and the rookie TE's.

 

[David Yudkin]

MT's projections for all teams are usually on the low side and especially in the early going. I count Aiken as a special teamer and unlikely to play much on offense. So I see Moss, Holt, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Price as the WR corps. By the time Welker comes back, someone on the team could be done for the season and thus freeing up a roster spot.

 

[karmarooster]

I've got Welker playing 10 games -- sitting out the first 6 on PUP. I've seen some indications that he'll likely miss at least 8 games; but I've also seen Welker come back before everyone thought he would in the past. So he's a hard one to project right now.

I saw this today in MMQB:

[brady] said he's been throwing "quite often'' on the West Coast to a rehabbing Wes Welker, recovering from knee and rotator-cuff surgeries. He made no predictions about when Welker would be ready to play, and was unspecific about how much Welker is doing now. But Welker is only three months removed from major surgery to his knee and shoulder, so it'd be a shock to see him early in the season. "He was an undrafted free-agent and has had to work for anything he's ever gotten,'' Brady said. "So don't put anything past him.''

Anyone think there's a chance that Welker opens the season on the field? I have to admit that I was pretty much writing him off this season, at least in the first half of the year. I also thought that in the 2nd half he wouldn't be his usually self, because while he doesn't rely on speed, his quick cutting is important on all those curls and slants. At this point tho I'm starting to wonder. I would not have expected to read that not only is he running and cutting, but catching balls and running routes. Brady obviously didn't want to say anything of substance to avoid the wrath of BB, but unless they are just playing pitch and catch in the backyard while Giselle cooks dinner, it sounds like he is ahead of schedule. Welker could be a nice value pick in redraft.... his current ADP according to mockdraftcentral (PPR) is #157... sandwhiched between the likes of Nate Washington and DHB.

 

[David Yudkin]

I've got Welker playing 10 games -- sitting out the first 6 on PUP. I've seen some indications that he'll likely miss at least 8 games; but I've also seen Welker come back before everyone thought he would in the past. So he's a hard one to project right now.

I saw this today in MMQB:

[brady] said he's been throwing "quite often'' on the West Coast to a rehabbing Wes Welker, recovering from knee and rotator-cuff surgeries. He made no predictions about when Welker would be ready to play, and was unspecific about how much Welker is doing now. But Welker is only three months removed from major surgery to his knee and shoulder, so it'd be a shock to see him early in the season. "He was an undrafted free-agent and has had to work for anything he's ever gotten,'' Brady said. "So don't put anything past him.''

Anyone think there's a chance that Welker opens the season on the field? I have to admit that I was pretty much writing him off this season, at least in the first half of the year. I also thought that in the 2nd half he wouldn't be his usually self, because while he doesn't rely on speed, his quick cutting is important on all those curls and slants. At this point tho I'm starting to wonder. I would not have expected to read that not only is he running and cutting, but catching balls and running routes. Brady obviously didn't want to say anything of substance to avoid the wrath of BB, but unless they are just playing pitch and catch in the backyard while Giselle cooks dinner, it sounds like he is ahead of schedule. Welker could be a nice value pick in redraft.... his current ADP according to mockdraftcentral (PPR) is #157... sandwhiched between the likes of Nate Washington and DHB.

There's a big difference in playing soft toss/catch and playing on game day. Brady also played catch last year with Moss a few months after Brady's surgery, but I doubt he would have been able to play any sooner.I would still project Welker to miss half the year. Even if he were able to come back a little sooner . . . the huge majority of times guys come back and struggle, especially when they try to rush back.

 

[Routilla]

Does the NE DEF/ST bounce back this year and become serviceable?

 

[AngryPatriot]

I think the D will be better and continue to improve. They're younger, added a pass rusher, an inside linebacker and MCCourty but maybe more importantly the team from last year will have more experience at this level. Players like Wilfork and Mayo should emerge as stronger leaders.

 

[Routilla]

I think the D will be better and continue to improve. They're younger, added a pass rusher, an inside linebacker and MCCourty but maybe more importantly the team from last year will have more experience at this level. Players like Wilfork and Mayo should emerge as stronger leaders.

I agree they should be better. Not a bad risk at DEF #14 or so which is where I am seeing them drafted.

 

[David Yudkin]

I've looked at a number of team projections for the Pats and haven't seen one that I would get on board with, so it's time to update my own . . .

Passing

Brady 375-570-4560-33-12

Hoyer 15-25-175-1-0

Total 390-595-4735-34-12

Rushing

Taylor 150-625-7

Maroney 130-545-4

Morris 80-325-3

Faulk 40-210-1

Brady 30-50-1

BJGE 20-80-0

WR 10-60-1

460-1895-17

Receiving

Moss 80-1300-16

Welker 75-860-3

Hernandez 50-640-3

Tate 45-570-2

Edelman 35-375-1

Faulk 35-260-2

Gronkowski 35-380-7

Maroney 10-90-0

Crumpler 10-90-0

Morris 5-55-0

Taylor 5-45-0

Price 5-70-0

390-4735-34

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

cant believe youre projecting brady at less than 2 ypc...did you not see him juke Urlacker?

 

[Gr00vus]

Gronkowski 35-380-7

For reals?

 

[TWP]

I've looked at a number of team projections for the Pats and haven't seen one that I would get on board with, so it's time to update my own . . .PassingBrady 375-570-4560-33-12Hoyer 15-25-175-1-0Total 390-595-4735-34-12RushingTaylor 150-625-7Maroney 130-545-4Morris 80-325-3Faulk 40-210-1Brady 30-50-1BJGE 20-80-0WR 10-60-1460-1895-17ReceivingMoss 80-1300-16Welker 75-860-3Hernandez 50-640-3Tate 45-570-2Edelman 35-375-1Faulk 35-260-2Gronkowski 35-380-7Maroney 10-90-0Crumpler 10-90-0Morris 5-55-0Taylor 5-45-0Price 5-70-0390-4735-34

Are you factoring in RB injuries? Or is this assuming everyone is available all year?

 

[tombonneau]

Gronkowski 35-380-7

For reals?

Gronk will have high single TD totals easily.

 

[da_budman]

I've looked at a number of team projections for the Pats and haven't seen one that I would get on board with, so it's time to update my own . . .PassingBrady 375-570-4560-33-12Hoyer 15-25-175-1-0Total 390-595-4735-34-12RushingTaylor 150-625-7Maroney 130-545-4Morris 80-325-3Faulk 40-210-1Brady 30-50-1BJGE 20-80-0WR 10-60-1460-1895-17ReceivingMoss 80-1300-16Welker 75-860-3Hernandez 50-640-3Tate 45-570-2Edelman 35-375-1Faulk 35-260-2Gronkowski 35-380-7Maroney 10-90-0Crumpler 10-90-0Morris 5-55-0Taylor 5-45-0Price 5-70-0390-4735-34

I find it interesting that you project Hernandez for so many more catches and Yards than Gronkowski yet so many less Td's. Knowing that you have ties to the team can you elaborate on that disparity? Is it just because you see Gronkowski being used mostly in the red zone and Hernandez not being used there? I also see Crumpler listed as the starting te. I am assuming at his size he is pretty much a glorified lineman/blocker. Which one of the 2 rookies sees the majority of the time on the field as a pass catching te. They BOTH looked good in the pre season.

 

[David Yudkin]

I've looked at a number of team projections for the Pats and haven't seen one that I would get on board with, so it's time to update my own . . .PassingBrady 375-570-4560-33-12Hoyer 15-25-175-1-0Total 390-595-4735-34-12RushingTaylor 150-625-7Maroney 130-545-4Morris 80-325-3Faulk 40-210-1Brady 30-50-1BJGE 20-80-0WR 10-60-1460-1895-17ReceivingMoss 80-1300-16Welker 75-860-3Hernandez 50-640-3Tate 45-570-2Edelman 35-375-1Faulk 35-260-2Gronkowski 35-380-7Maroney 10-90-0Crumpler 10-90-0Morris 5-55-0Taylor 5-45-0Price 5-70-0390-4735-34

I find it interesting that you project Hernandez for so many more catches and Yards than Gronkowski yet so many less Td's. Knowing that you have ties to the team can you elaborate on that disparity? Is it just because you see Gronkowski being used mostly in the red zone and Hernandez not being used there? I also see Crumpler listed as the starting te. I am assuming at his size he is pretty much a glorified lineman/blocker. Which one of the 2 rookies sees the majority of the time on the field as a pass catching te. They BOTH looked good in the pre season.

From what I have seen/read/heard, the plan seems to be to use Hernandez more as a WR masquerading as a TE. He should be on the field in pass catching situations and moved around a lot. Could line up as a TE, in the slot, on the outside, in multi receiver sets, as an H-back, in motion, etc. Basically, he's an oversized receiver with speed and decent hands.The 50 catch number is what I have heard for Hernandez, as a number of people think he will be the #3 option behind Moss and Welker.Gronkowski would be used much more as a blocker and only sometimes in patterns (but used a ton in the red zone). Being 6'6", 265, no one will be able to cover him, so Brady will want to throw him the ball in the end zone where he won't need to do much except catch the ball.Mike Reiss projects Gronkowski to have 10+ TDs this year, so in some ways I am on the conservative side. Bear in mind that other than Moss and Welker, the pass distribution is a total guess for anyone. Everyone else is new or realtively inexperienced. I still think Edelman and Welker run the same routes, so I am not so sure Edelman can be added into the mix WITH Welker very often. They tried that last year and Edelman didn't do much playing on the outside. He's quick and maybe a little faster than Welker is, but I don't see him blowing by people in the secondary. Add in the tight ends, and they have a lot of guys that run underneath routes or in the middle. You can only play so many of those types at once.Overall, I think the Pats will tend to spread the ball around more than in recent seasons. They have better options, they don't really want to over extended Welker, and they fared better when Brady just hit the open man instead of forcing passes to Moss and Welker.As for RB questions, I think Taylor is the main ball carrier in the early going but will get nicked up and Maroney will take over in mid season at some point.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

David, any indication either way on whether Kevin is winding down or not? He's getting pretty long in the tooth...

 

[TWP]

As for RB questions, I think Taylor is the main ball carrier in the early going but will get nicked up and Maroney will take over in mid season at some point.

OK, cool. Looking at the numbers, this is what I figured. Seems reasonable including this line of thinking.

 

[David Yudkin]

David, any indication either way on whether Kevin is winding down or not? He's getting pretty long in the tooth...

I have heard from several people that Faulk worked out hard in the off season and is in the best shape he's been in years. Some feel he has a little more burst/quickness than in the last couple of seasons.I'm not sure if I'm buying it, but he still is the king of getting 9 yards on 3rd and 8. GREAT NFL player. So so fantasy option at this point. I don't see his numbers changing any. He probably sees the ball a little less given the number of options they have on offense this year.I think they will have a much different backfield next season. Not sure where the bodies will be coming from, however.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

next question: odds that moss and mankins each get re-signed anytime soon? assume the yet to be confirmed brady deal happens...

 

[TWP]

next question: odds that moss and mankins each get re-signed anytime soon? assume the yet to be confirmed brady deal happens...

I'm not David, but FWIW I'd guess Moss at 50:50 and Mankins at 20:80. Reiss thinks Mankins will play in Week 10, but I'm not so sure. If they decide to keep Moss, he'll probably get re-signed before the year is out, but who knows on the timing. I doubt we see Mankins re-sign anytime soon.

 

[David Yudkin]

next question: odds that moss and mankins each get re-signed anytime soon? assume the yet to be confirmed brady deal happens...

I see no hope for Mankins at this point. He's burned his bridges. You don't make points by calling the owner a liar and expect to still make demands and get them. I suspect a trade similar to the Branch trade to the Seahawks a few years ago. Probably a couple weeks into the season. Maybe a high second round pick for next year's draft.I know it's not like Moss to keep his mouth shut, but clearly there are plenty of guys in NE that are having contract issues. The labor situation isn't helping.I don't think that Moss leaving is a sure thing. IMO, if Moss does anywhere from ok to very good there is a decent chance he will be back. If does not so great or phenomenal then I think they have a problem. He's going to want a lot of money either way, and if they feel his performance isn't that great they won't pay him. If he goes off for 100/1700/18, then they won't be able to afford to pay him.If there is no football next year, that would reduce the likelihood they would re-sign Moss. If there still is a franchise tag, they could franchise him and in essence force him to play another year. I'm not sure that would go over well, but they could still keep him around (again if they leave the franchise tag in play).I have generally been a supporter of the defense the past few years, but even I have to wonder if they are going to have to get things done with smoke and mirrors. No pass rush and a youthful secondary to me spells a lot of big plays allowed.But that would only force the offense to put up big numbers to stay in games. I think we will see a number of games in the 30s for both teams.

 

[David Yudkin]

next question: odds that moss and mankins each get re-signed anytime soon? assume the yet to be confirmed brady deal happens...

I'm not David, but FWIW I'd guess Moss at 50:50 and Mankins at 20:80. Reiss thinks Mankins will play in Week 10, but I'm not so sure. If they decide to keep Moss, he'll probably get re-signed before the year is out, but who knows on the timing. I doubt we see Mankins re-sign anytime soon.

I'm not sure we will see Mankins this year in NE if he's not traded. From what I can tell, he's already accrued 5 seasons of NFL experience. With the lack of a salary cap or a new CBA, the benchmark for becoming a free agent switched from 4 years to 6 years.There won't be football without another CBA, so I would guess that the milestone for becoming a UFA would go back to 4 years. The union wants to reduce that to 3 years, so as I see it the 6 year thing is going to go away.So Mankins really doesn't need to play this year to qualify for free agency. It would help him down the road for minimum salaries and other post playing days benefits/pension, but I doubt that would be much of an incentive to get him to play for NE this year (but that's just my guess).Like with Moss, the Pats could franchise him and try to force him to play next year, but I doubt that would work.

 

[TWP]

next question: odds that moss and mankins each get re-signed anytime soon? assume the yet to be confirmed brady deal happens...

I'm not David, but FWIW I'd guess Moss at 50:50 and Mankins at 20:80. Reiss thinks Mankins will play in Week 10, but I'm not so sure. If they decide to keep Moss, he'll probably get re-signed before the year is out, but who knows on the timing. I doubt we see Mankins re-sign anytime soon.

I'm not sure we will see Mankins this year in NE if he's not traded. From what I can tell, he's already accrued 5 seasons of NFL experience. With the lack of a salary cap or a new CBA, the benchmark for becoming a free agent switched from 4 years to 6 years.There won't be football without another CBA, so I would guess that the milestone for becoming a UFA would go back to 4 years. The union wants to reduce that to 3 years, so as I see it the 6 year thing is going to go away.So Mankins really doesn't need to play this year to qualify for free agency. It would help him down the road for minimum salaries and other post playing days benefits/pension, but I doubt that would be much of an incentive to get him to play for NE this year (but that's just my guess).Like with Moss, the Pats could franchise him and try to force him to play next year, but I doubt that would work.

Yes, this was my take as well but Mike Reiss continues to say that he thinks Mankins plays at least at the end of the year. I just don't see it. As you said, I see Moss as two step: do they want to keep him? I see that as 75/25 for keeping him, but maybe I'm too optimistic. If they keep him, I see it as 67/33 for re-signing him 'sometime soon' which I mean as by mid-season-ish. More important than either of these things are the guys we placed on IR, though. What the heck...ETA: I dont think anyone will be franchising anyone ever again...

 

[David Yudkin]

ETA: I dont think anyone will be franchising anyone ever again...

Funny thing about the franchise tag. That was a union thing when it first came up when they created the salary cap era. And they wanted two of them allowed per team but the owners talked them out of it. Or it would have been even worse.

 

[TWP]

ETA: I dont think anyone will be franchising anyone ever again...

Funny thing about the franchise tag. That was a union thing when it first came up when they created the salary cap era. And they wanted two of them allowed per team but the owners talked them out of it. Or it would have been even worse.

I know. That's why I think it will go away.

 

[steelwind]

David is NE defense playable this year? Most sites have them ranked in the top 10. Average is 9 or 10. How is this possible with the young defensive players they have? Is it because the NE offense will put pressure on the other team's offense?