Team Spotlight: San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

540 pass attempts for 341 receptions, 4105 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions; 418 rushes for 1653 yards and 13 touchdowns.

QB

Philip Rivers: 321 of 506 passing for 3880 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 32 rushes for 53 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Billy Volek: 20 of 34 passing for 225 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 3 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jonathan Crompton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Ryan Mathews: 234 rushes for 957 yards and 8 touchdowns; 22 receptions for 165 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Darren Sproles: 90 rushes for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns; 41 receptions for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Jacob Hester: 19 rushes for 77 yards and 1 touchdowns; 8 receptions for 56 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Marcus Mason: 11 rushes for 46 yards and 0 touchdowns; 4 receptions for 33 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Mike Tolbert: 23 rushes for 95 yards and 1 touchdowns; 14 receptions for 122 yards and 1 touchdowns.

WR

Vincent Jackson: 58 receptions for 931 yards and 6 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Malcom Floyd: 52 receptions for 779 yards and 4 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Legedu Naanee: 34 receptions for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Craig Davis: 30 receptions for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Antonio Gates: 71 receptions for 880 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Dedrick Epps: 4 receptions for 38 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kris Wilson: 4 receptions for 30 yards and 0 touchdowns.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

hmmmmm

Mathews nor Vjax nor Gates having a 1,0000 season?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'm thinking V.Jackson will miss two games (DUI suspension). Otherwise he'd be over 1,000.

 

[Max Power]

Maurile, I know you are a chargers fan and all, but do you really see S.D. giving Vincent Jackson top 5-10 WR money and not throwing him the ball more than 60 times?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Maurile, I know you are a chargers fan and all, but do you really see S.D. giving Vincent Jackson top 5-10 WR money and not throwing him the ball more than 60 times?

He does have him missing two games for suspension. That said, VJax doesnt really catch a lot of balls. He's not an 80-90 catch type of WR.

 

[Tau837]

Craig Davis: 30 receptions for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 15 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Craig Davis's career numbers in his three years in the NFL: 30/299/1 receiving and 4/30/0 rushing. His numbers last year: 6/52/0 receiving and 1/4/0 rushing.You are showing Davis as the 4th receiver. Last year, the Chambers situation muddled things a bit, but Naanee was the 3rd WR, and he only finished with 24/242/2, even though the offense threw for 233 more yards and 2 more TDs than you are projecting.Davis has been a huge disappointment since being picked in the first round in 2007. Why do you project him to better his career numbers to date this year? Are you expecting him to be a big beneficiary for the 2 games you project Jackson to miss? Or are you simply down on Naanee and his ability to claim a bigger share this year? I'm not getting this.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Naanee was usually active on game days for the past few years while Davis wasn't, because Naanee played special teams while Davis didn't.

This year, they'll both be active on game days (assuming the roster at WR is basically set).

When they're both active, I expect them both to get about the same amount of playing time, because as WRs (as opposed to special teams players), I think they are about equally good. I think Davis is probably the better route-runner and has more consistent hands; I think they're both pretty good in their RAC ability; I think Naanee is better going after the ball in traffic, and is also better adjusting to the ball on deep patterns.

But I wouldn't count on Naanee getting more offensive snaps than Davis this season just because he has in previous years. In previous years, he got more offensive snaps because he played special teams. I don't think that will be a factor in determining this season's offensive snaps.

This is all subject to change, obviously, based on training camp, preseason, etc.

 

[Tau837]

Philip Rivers: 321 of 506 passing for 3880 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 32 rushes for 53 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Rivers' interceptions seem high here. You are projecting an interception percentage of 2.77%. His career interception percentage is only 2.35%... the past two years combined it is 2.07%... and last year it was just 1.85%.Why so high?

 

[Tau837]

Naanee was usually active on game days for the past few years while Davis wasn't, because Naanee played special teams while Davis didn't.This year, they'll both be active on game days (assuming the roster at WR is basically set).When they're both active, I expect them both to get about the same amount of playing time, because as WRs (as opposed to special teams players), I think they are about equally good. I think Davis is probably the better route-runner and has more consistent hands; I think they're both pretty good in their RAC ability; I think Naanee is better going after the ball in traffic, and is also better adjusting to the ball on deep patterns.But I wouldn't count on Naanee getting more offensive snaps than Davis this season just because he has in previous years. In previous years, he got more offensive snaps because he played special teams. I don't think that will be a factor in determining this season's offensive snaps.This is all subject to change, obviously, based on training camp, preseason, etc.

OK, last year, when Chambers was on the team, the Chargers had all of Jackson, Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Osgood active. Once Chambers was released, they just went with the other 4 other than week 17, the only game Davis was active.Is it because Osgood is gone that they will activate Davis this year when they didn't last year?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Is it because Osgood is gone that they will activate Davis this year when they didn't last year?

Yes, Osgood was always active because of his special teams prowess.I think they'll keep at least 4 WRs active each week.

 

[Tau837]

QBPhilip Rivers: 321 of 506 passing for 3880 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions; 32 rushes for 53 yards and 1 touchdowns.Billy Volek: 20 of 34 passing for 225 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 2 rushes for 3 yards and 0 touchdowns.Jonathan Crompton: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Are you projecting 34 passing attempts for Volek because you expect the Chargers to rest starters in the last week or two? Or is this just some general rule that average QBs start 14.2 games and so you project them that way, or something like that?I understand that kind of general approach (if that's what it is), but Rivers has been exceptionally durable. He didn't miss a start in 4 years of college (51 starts) and hasn't missed a start in San Diego (71 starts and counting), despite playing through some injuries. He is one guy I'd always project for 16 games, along with Favre and Peyton Manning.

 

[Tau837]

Is it because Osgood is gone that they will activate Davis this year when they didn't last year?

Yes, Osgood was always active because of his special teams prowess.I think they'll keep at least 4 WRs active each week.

Just to explore this a bit further. After Chambers was gone last year, they regularly had 4 WRs active, including Naanee and Osgood, who played special teams. But they really only used 3 of them on offense. So you are projecting two changes from last year:1. They will keep a non-starting WR active on gamedays who does not play special teams.2. They will give 4 WRs regular snaps on offense.Correct?

 

[karmarooster]

JWB.... super-fan number 17 over here. the adam schefter of FBGs for all things Pip Rivers-related.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzprRCaSpRk

just giving you a hard time, i hope you know. i'd go to bat for schaub any day just the same.

and yet, your super-fanism seems to cloud your judgement. i remember having a discussion with you last year about Rivers' TD%, when i noted that it was un-sustainably high in 2008 when he threw 34 TDs in just 312 completions, a higher percentage than Brady, Manning, or Brees for their careers. and then, what happened? he dropped back to a more reasonable yet still very good 28 TDs on 317 completions.

he's still a very good player.

i will admit that 14 INTs seems a little high, but, like his un-sustainably high TD% in 2008, which fell back to earth somewhat, his INT% figures to do the same again. it's just not that easy for a QB to throw fewer than 10 INTs on 450+ attempts.

in the end, we're really splitting hairs here. if you go with his career INT%, he gets 12 INTs... a net result of -2 or -4 fantasy points depending on your league scoring.

Rivers has decreased his INTs each of the past three years, from 15 to 11 to 9. thats a trend that can't continue. 10-14 is the ball park. maybe he'll throw an extra or two when he gets jacked up due to a missed Mathews block?

 

[karmarooster]

I'm thinking V.Jackson will miss two games (DUI suspension). Otherwise he'd be over 1,000.

projected to 16 games, your numbers equate to 66 for 1,064. right in line with what he's shown us over the past 2 seasons.

 

[Tau837]

JWB.... super-fan number 17 over here. the adam schefter of FBGs for all things Pip Rivers-related.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzprRCaSpRk

just giving you a hard time, i hope you know. i'd go to bat for schaub any day just the same.

and yet, your super-fanism seems to cloud your judgement. i remember having a discussion with you last year about Rivers' TD%, when i noted that it was un-sustainably high in 2008 when he threw 34 TDs in just 312 completions, a higher percentage than Brady, Manning, or Brees for their careers. and then, what happened? he dropped back to a more reasonable yet still very good 28 TDs on 317 completions.

I remember discussing the issue in the Rivers Spotlight, though not with you specifically. Here are some relevant posts from that thread:

Projection: 325/500 (65%), 3950 passing yards (7.9 ypa), 30 TDs, 10 interceptions

My projection of 30 TDs in 500 attempts is 6% TD percentage, which is a substantial drop from the 7.1% he posted last season.

I'm going back through my spotlight posts for this year and had to bump these.

Projection: 325/500 (65%), 3950 passing yards (7.9 ypa), 30 TDs, 10 interceptions

Actual numbers: 317/486 (65.2%), 4254 passing yards (8.8 ypa), 28 TDs, 9 interceptionsNot bad... I shorted him a bit on my ypa expectations, but otherwise pretty much nailed it. And if he didn't sit out most of the last game, he probably would have been even closer on the completions, attempts, and TDs...

So he ended up at 5.8%. Doesn't make my 6% projection seem so outlandish now.

Still think my judgment was clouded?

 

[karmarooster]

touche! props on some solid projections, and not as super-fan as i remember.

Rivers actual TD% was 5.76% (TDs/Attempt). Or, put differently, he threw a TD every 17.3 attempts.

here's the thread from last summer, specifically about Rivers having a fluky season in 2008.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=482709&hl=

in 2008, Phillip Rivers threw 34 touchdowns on only 478 attempts, giving him a TD every 14 attempts. Many people consider Rivers to be one of the next great QBs, and he's usually valued around QB5 with or just below Aaron Rodgers. But are Rivers numbers too good to duplicate? To give you some perspective, Peyton Manning has the following career totals: 5960 pass attempts, 333 touchdowns, TD every 17.9 attempts.

...

[*]Big Ben 2007 - 7.9%

[*]Rivers 2008 - 7.1%

[*]Manning career - 5.5%

[*]Brady career - 5.3%

[*]Brees career - 4.6%

.....

Just Win Baby, i know you are #1 in the Rivers fan club. But 30 TDs on 500 attempts is still 6%, an excellent number. Don't these numbers have to come down more? Something more reasonable would be 27 or 28 TDs on 500 attempts, around 5.4%-5.6%.

Does anyone else see Rivers back in that solidly vanilla 25-28 TD range instead of in the 30+ club?

I already explained why I projected 6%. You quoted part of it. So... no, I don't think they have to come down more. But you mention 28 TDs a couple times... I don't think 28 instead of 30 should change Rivers' value or rank.

or maybe it's just possible that we split the difference. =) he did throw 28 tho, didn't he? I'm beginning to think that you are, in fact, Philip Rivers. i was trying to have a little fun, but you seem to have his sense of humor.

 

[karmarooster]

in light of this discussion, tho, MT's projection for 26 TDs on 506 attempts is 5.13%. maybe a bit low, as Rivers has established his bar to be pretty high, but it could also be a result of missing Vince for a game or two.