Teams out west are 9-1 at home in the playoffs since 2007 (1 Viewer)

[Fensalk]

Does travelling out west hurt teams in the playoffs? I use geography, not divisional alignment here, so the Chiefs don't count because they are a midwest team, even though they play in the AFC west.

2011:

Broncos 29, Steelers 23

49ers 36, Saints 32

2010:

Seahawks 41, Saints 36

2009:

Cardinals 51, Packers 45

Jets 17, Chargers 14

2008:

Cardinals 30, Falcons 24

Chargers 23, Colts 17

Cardinals 32, Eagles 25

2007:

Seahawks 35, Redskins 14

Chargers 17, Titans 6

red denotes teams out west that lost at home in the playoffs.

By comparison, teams playing at home that aren't out west are a combined 17-18 since 2007. That's right, they are under .500! This was written before the conclusion of the Broncos @ Patriots playoff game on January 14th, 2012.

 

[Fensalk]

Here's an even more shocking fact:

From 2007 to 2010, home playoff teams that didn't play out west were a combined 14-18. They had to go 4-0 this season just to crawl back to .500!

 

[ivnabru]

I don't think I'd count Denver as west, more midwest. But otherwise an interesting post.

I wonder how west teams do on the east coast.

 

[Fensalk]

I don't think I'd count Denver as west, more midwest. But otherwise an interesting post.I wonder how west teams do on the east coast.

I make the cutoff as Denver or further west.

 

[Fensalk]

I wonder how west teams do on the east coast.

2-6 since 2007 when on the road. 0-2 specifically on the east coast, as the only two games were @Patriots.2011: @Patriots 45, Broncos 10

2010: @Bears 35, Seahawks 24

2009: @Saints 45, Cardinals 14

2008: Cardinals 33, @Panthers 13

2008: @Steelers 35, Chargers 24

2007: @Packers 42, Seahawks 20

2007: Chargers 28, @Colts 24

2007: @Patriots 21, Chargers 12

 

[beef]

I've made a lot of money betting western teams at home in the playoffs.

I consider Denver as west when gambling. The elevation makes up the hour difference.

 

[Fensalk]

With today's home teams splitting, home playoff teams that are not out west are 19-19 since 2007. The 49ers will look to run the home playoff record of western teams to 10-1 next weekend.

 

[beef]

good stuff man

 

[beef]

Do people really think the Giants can travel across the country and win against a great team like San Francisco? No. No they cannot. San Francisco will win and win big.

and only at -2.5 makes it an easier bet.

 

[NBusiness]

Do people really think the Giants can travel across the country and win against a great team like San Francisco? No. No they cannot. San Francisco will win and win big.

and only at -2.5 makes it an easier bet.

2 stupid posts back 2 back. Giants defense in all 3 Phases is superior to the saints . Niners extra week to prepare is gone. Giants have stronger run game than saints, as well as 2 big time wrs. No Ted ginn negates special teams/ slot wr/ gimmick play explosion. Vernon Davis huge game gives giants 100% incentive to stop him fully. Giants d line is 25x times better than saints. And the niners biggest asset right now us their confidence/momentum which is completely negated by giants who are NFLs hottest team. Giants by10.

 

[goldenchild]

Do people really think the Giants can travel across the country and win against a great team like San Francisco? No. No they cannot. San Francisco will win and win big.

and only at -2.5 makes it an easier bet.

2 stupid posts back 2 back. Giants defense in all 3 Phases is superior to the saints . Niners extra week to prepare is gone. Giants have stronger run game than saints, as well as 2 big time wrs. No Ted ginn negates special teams/ slot wr/ gimmick play explosion. Vernon Davis huge game gives giants 100% incentive to stop him fully. Giants d line is 25x times better than saints. And the niners biggest asset right now us their confidence/momentum which is completely negated by giants who are NFLs hottest team. Giants by10.

How about the other side of the coin? *Saints O >> NYG O... NYG has 2 big time WRs, but still not nearly an offense as potent as NO's, IMO of course.*SF Run D... nuff said.*Biggest asset for SF is not their confidence... which by the way is the most laughable argument to use in predicting a win.I'm not nearly as confident to predict a domination for either team. I think this game will be decided by one score.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

West coast bias.

 

[NBusiness]

Do people really think the Giants can travel across the country and win against a great team like San Francisco? No. No they cannot. San Francisco will win and win big.

and only at -2.5 makes it an easier bet.

2 stupid posts back 2 back. Giants defense in all 3 Phases is superior to the saints . Niners extra week to prepare is gone. Giants have stronger run game than saints, as well as 2 big time wrs. No Ted ginn negates special teams/ slot wr/ gimmick play explosion. Vernon Davis huge game gives giants 100% incentive to stop him fully. Giants d line is 25x times better than saints. And the niners biggest asset right now us their confidence/momentum which is completely negated by giants who are NFLs hottest team. Giants by10.

Football Outsiders give the Niners a 64% chance to win (and Football Outsiders are never wrong)http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffoddsRead and weep, sucka!

And What % were the packers to win last week?

 

[Dragon1952]

Do people really think the Giants can travel across the country and win against a great team like San Francisco? No. No they cannot. San Francisco will win and win big.

and only at -2.5 makes it an easier bet.

2 stupid posts back 2 back. Giants defense in all 3 Phases is superior to the saints . Niners extra week to prepare is gone. Giants have stronger run game than saints, as well as 2 big time wrs. No Ted ginn negates special teams/ slot wr/ gimmick play explosion. Vernon Davis huge game gives giants 100% incentive to stop him fully. Giants d line is 25x times better than saints. And the niners biggest asset right now us their confidence/momentum which is completely negated by giants who are NFLs hottest team. Giants by10.

I agree. In the first meeting the Giants took a 13-12 lead into the 4th Q holding the 49ers to just 4 FG's up till then, but then gave SF 2 very short fields in the 4th Q, one at the 17 which resulted in 7 pts. on the very next play. Behind by 7 they had the ball at the SF 10 yd line with a 4th and 2 with 37 secs left, so they were 10 yds from tying even though they basically gave up a free 7 pts. The Giants were without RB Ahmad Bradshaw in that game. In addition, it was Hakeem Nicks first game back after sitting out the previous week with a hamstring injury and he was not at 100%. The Giants held the edge in most categories except in TO's where Manning had 2 picks and Alex Smith just 1. The Giants held the edge in FD's 21-16, offensive yds 395-305, rushing 93-77, passing 311-242, plays 70-52, 3rd down efficiency 50% (7 of 14) -27% (3 of 11) and TOP 34:37-25:23. The 49ers lost Gore for the 2nd H due to injury but he was held to 6 carries for 0 yds in the 1st H. The Giants are playing better right now, and will have Bradshaw and a healthy Nicks. In two playoff games the NY Giants have held 2 very good offenses to a total of 22 pts. I think it will be tough to beat a very good Giant team twice in the same season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Interesting stat.

 

[Short Corner]

Do people really think the Giants can travel across the country and win against a great team like San Francisco? No. No they cannot. San Francisco will win and win big.

and only at -2.5 makes it an easier bet.

2 stupid posts back 2 back. Giants defense in all 3 Phases is superior to the saints . Niners extra week to prepare is gone. Giants have stronger run game than saints, as well as 2 big time wrs. No Ted ginn negates special teams/ slot wr/ gimmick play explosion. Vernon Davis huge game gives giants 100% incentive to stop him fully. Giants d line is 25x times better than saints. And the niners biggest asset right now us their confidence/momentum which is completely negated by giants who are NFLs hottest team. Giants by10.

SF still dominates NY in special teams with or without Ginn.

 

[Fensalk]

Of course this is too small of a sample size. Its interesting though.

 

[Short Corner]

Of course this is too small of a sample size. Its interesting though.

Too small for what?

 

[NBusiness]

One more comment to add here- it's raining in SF hard and it's been widely speculated that the sloppy field actually is an advantage for SF, but the speed of the niner defense is what had made them so dominant this year . One more advantage giants . The niners only real

advantage this weekend Is in the kicking and punting games.

 

[Modog814]

Of course this is too small of a sample size. Its interesting though.

Too small for what?

To be meaningful (not just random fluctuation). Although I think it's getting close to meaningful. If we assume that 2 teams have a 50-50 chance, then the odds of this happening are 200-1. If we say the home team is naturally a 55:45 favorite, then the odds of htis happening are only 80-1.

 

[Short Corner]

Of course this is too small of a sample size. Its interesting though.

Too small for what?

To be meaningful (not just random fluctuation). Although I think it's getting close to meaningful. If we assume that 2 teams have a 50-50 chance, then the odds of this happening are 200-1. If we say the home team is naturally a 55:45 favorite, then the odds of htis happening are only 80-1.

I think from what you just said, it is plenty meaningful. The true mean will have a pretty broad range but to say it isn't meaningful is either ignorant or disingenuous.

 

[Modog814]

Of course this is too small of a sample size. Its interesting though.

Too small for what?

To be meaningful (not just random fluctuation). Although I think it's getting close to meaningful. If we assume that 2 teams have a 50-50 chance, then the odds of this happening are 200-1. If we say the home team is naturally a 55:45 favorite, then the odds of htis happening are only 80-1.

I think from what you just said, it is plenty meaningful. The true mean will have a pretty broad range but to say it isn't meaningful is either ignorant or disingenuous.

No it's neither ignorant or disingenuous. It's unlikely. Think of it in terms of flipping a coin, it's not likely to get Heads 10 out 11 times, but it's certainly possible. And getting such doesn't mean that the chances of getting a heads in more likely than a tail. While 200-1 sounds pretty high, consider if in the next game the road team wins, bringing the record to 10-2. Now the odds of getting that record (assuming 50-50) drops from 200-1 to 62-1. If they win the next 2 it drops again to 28.6-1. So it's not meaninful in the sense that the outcome a single game can dramitically change the odds of the situation happening.

 

[davidwb]

One more comment to add here- it's raining in SF hard and it's been widely speculated that the sloppy field actually is an advantage for SF, but the speed talent, heart, desire of the niner defense is what had made them so dominant this year . One more advantage giants . The niners only real

advantage this weekend Is in the kicking and punting games.

Fixed.

Thank you, Buster. Good dog!

 

[Short Corner]

Of course this is too small of a sample size. Its interesting though.

Too small for what?

To be meaningful (not just random fluctuation). Although I think it's getting close to meaningful. If we assume that 2 teams have a 50-50 chance, then the odds of this happening are 200-1. If we say the home team is naturally a 55:45 favorite, then the odds of htis happening are only 80-1.

I think from what you just said, it is plenty meaningful. The true mean will have a pretty broad range but to say it isn't meaningful is either ignorant or disingenuous.

No it's neither ignorant or disingenuous. It's unlikely. Think of it in terms of flipping a coin, it's not likely to get Heads 10 out 11 times, but it's certainly possible. And getting such doesn't mean that the chances of getting a heads in more likely than a tail. While 200-1 sounds pretty high, consider if in the next game the road team wins, bringing the record to 10-2. Now the odds of getting that record (assuming 50-50) drops from 200-1 to 62-1. If they win the next 2 it drops again to 28.6-1. So it's not meaninful in the sense that the outcome a single game can dramitically change the odds of the situation happening.

The outcome doesn't change the odds, it gives us another data point for putting the true mean in a tighter range. At 6-5 or 7-4 you won't be able to make much of an argument that it is substantially more than a coin flip, but 10-1, in a Bernoulli distribution, is a pretty good indicator that your p-value is significantly higher than said coin flip situation.

 

[harryhood]

In the history of the NFL playoffs. Teams coming off a playoff win vs. Defending super bowl champions are 0-14 straight up the following week.

BUCK THE TREND BIG BLUE

 

[Dragon1952]

In the history of the NFL playoffs. Teams coming off a playoff win vs. Defending super bowl champions are 0-14 straight up the following week. BUCK THE TREND BIG BLUE

I don't get it

 

[bostonfred]

Teams that host a playoff game are seeded higher than the team they host, and that usually means they have a better record, especially in the first and second rounds. Home field advantage also adds to the outcome. You should expect any home team to have a big advantage in the playoffs, and you should expect that to be lessened in the conference championships because the two teams would theoretically be more evenly matched

 

[Perfect Tommy]

2006 1-1

2005 3-1

2004 0-2

2003 0-0

2002 3-0

2001 1-1

2000 1-1

1999 0-1

If we go back to 1999, then the west coast teams are a total of 19-8 at home. Pretty good, but not really impressive. If we figure that, as the home team and a higher seeded and therefore better team, they should win around 60% on the average, that would be 18-12 in 30 games. And from 1999 to 2006 they were only 9-7. Not so good. It is far more likely that the recent 10-1 hot streak is just a random fluctuation. There are so many different things we can look at that we fully expect some of the things we look at to have 10-1 runs, especially if we choose the starting point after the fact to make the run look impressive. It just stands to reason that if the extra travel made a difference, it would make only a small difference. The 10-1 run has to be lucky for the WC teams even if there really is something to it.

Edit to add that I chose the 1999 starting time to bolster my point. 1998 was a good year for the WC teams.

 

[Fensalk]

2006 1-12005 3-12004 0-22003 0-02002 3-02001 1-12000 1-11999 0-1If we go back to 1999, then the west coast teams are a total of 19-8 at home. Pretty good, but not really impressive. If we figure that, as the home team and a higher seeded and therefore better team, they should win around 60% on the average, that would be 18-12 in 30 games. And from 1999 to 2006 they were only 9-7. Not so good. It is far more likely that the recent 10-1 hot streak is just a random fluctuation. There are so many different things we can look at that we fully expect some of the things we look at to have 10-1 runs, especially if we choose the starting point after the fact to make the run look impressive. It just stands to reason that if the extra travel made a difference, it would make only a small difference. The 10-1 run has to be lucky for the WC teams even if there really is something to it.Edit to add that I chose the 1999 starting time to bolster my point. 1998 was a good year for the WC teams.

What's even more bizzare though is how the rest of the home playoff teams fare so poorly.

 

[NBusiness]

Giants getting their butts kicked. Just like we thought they would.

10 play drive bump

 

[NBusiness]

One more comment to add here- it's raining in SF hard and it's been widely speculated that the sloppy field actually is an advantage for SF, but the speed talent, heart, desire of the niner defense is what had made them so dominant this year . One more advantage giants . The niners only real

advantage this weekend Is in the kicking and punting games.

Fixed.

?

 

[NBusiness]

Good game see you next year.

 

[harryhood]

In the history of the NFL playoffs. Teams coming off a playoff win vs. Defending super bowl champions are 1-14 straight up the following week.

BUCK THE TREND BIG BLUE

Gladly Fixed!TREND BUCK'D!!!