Depending on how you rate them, there could be anywhere from 8-12 guys in the top tier of WRs, all of which could have a legitimate reasonable shot at finishing at, or very close to, the top fantasy scorer in that position. However, barring injury, I think it is highly unlikely that any TE out-performs Gates at the TE position. Last season was a down year for Gates (very likely the biproduct of transitioning to a new and somewhat inexperienced QB combined with LT's monster season) yet he still finished as the top TE in football. It seems strange to say this about a player who was the best at his position last year, but I see him as really having some upside in 2007- not so much in terms of his career numbers, but compared to last season. So why would you roll the dice on a top WR who could be beaten by 7-11 other players when you could grab a player who is as safe as it gets in fantasy football (at least in TE-required leagues, of course)? I fully understand why you might wait if you know the drafting patterns of others in your league and feel reasonably sure Gates will still be sitting there in the next round of your draft, but if you think you might miss out on drafting him, shouldn't you take him before any wide-out?
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Tell me why it doesn't make sense to draft Gates (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KCC
- Start date
I see your point, Oz. I'm just being a bit risk-adversive and assuming the WR (Marvin or whomever) I might take before Gates could possibly end up in the 10-12 (top third of starting wide-outs) range in terms of season ending stats, where I find it improbable that Gates finishes as low as the #3 or #4 TE (top third of starting TEs.)
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GregR_2
Footballguy
Let's use last season's results as a test, and say that you're guaranteed Gates will be the #1 TE. Last year he scored 147. The 12 best TE scored 82, so he was 65 points better on a last-starter scale. The 36th best WR scored 113, so to do as much better as Gates did, a WR would have to score 178. There were 8 WRs who scored higher than that, and a 9th who was close enough as to be a wash.But Gates had a down year so let's go back another year. He scored 174, the 12th best TE scored 79, so he was 95 points better. That year, 2 WRs had that much value over the 36th WR, and 2 others close enough to be a wash.So if you see Gates scoring somewhere between his 2005 and 2006 results, you'd expect from 2-8 WRs to outright outscore him, and for another 1-2 on top of those to be of pretty much equal value.So I guess the question would have to be, do you think that a given WR is a sure enough lock to place that highly? Top 5 to have a good chance at outright beating him, and top 10 to have a chance to be of ballpark equal value. If not, then yes draft Gates.
Gates is in for a huge year.....having Antonio is a huge advantage...Especially since he's gonne be used in a lot more WR sets this year....dont hesitate on taking him early....dude is in for a huge year
I agree with OP. I find it amazing that more fantasy owners don't realize the true value that Antonio Gates provides. He gives you big points each week (for the most part) when other owners have little to show for the position each week. Sure, you may get a Shockey or Cooley to match him sometimes, but usually your opponent will have 0-4 points at the TE spot and you have much more.
Then again, it's all about your confidence in being able to grab WRs after Gates who will put up respectable numbers. If you don't feel that you can get a WR or another RB after Gates, you may not feel comfortable with the team you are drafting after picking him and it may affect how you complete the rest of your draft. Kind of like being "on tilt" in poker, I suppose.
Then again, it's all about your confidence in being able to grab WRs after Gates who will put up respectable numbers. If you don't feel that you can get a WR or another RB after Gates, you may not feel comfortable with the team you are drafting after picking him and it may affect how you complete the rest of your draft. Kind of like being "on tilt" in poker, I suppose.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Coming from a comprensive risk management approach it makes less sense to spend early picks on players that fill positions that only require one starter for that position...QB/TE/PK/DF.
This is why you may see Gates going lower in "expert" drafts even though VBD may indicate he should go earlier.(depending on your projections)
Another reason is that not everybody isn't using the same VBD methodology/baselines
This is why you may see Gates going lower in "expert" drafts even though VBD may indicate he should go earlier.(depending on your projections)
Another reason is that not everybody isn't using the same VBD methodology/baselines
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That's interesting since I think Gates is more valuable because he is a less risky pick than the top tier WRs. Does it really make sense to lump the TE position in with those others? I understand that QB's are selected later, but isn't that because their stats are usually subjected to a fantasy scoring system that minimizes their value relative to the scoring used for RB and WR stats (and TE stats as well)? PK's can be a risky pick, but that is because they tend to be a lot less predictable in terms of their point production. Depending on the league system used, DEFs can be similar to PKs, particularly in scoring systems where DEF TDs determine the majority of points for the position.
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joffer
Footballguy
just some more data. going back to 2000 (the beginning of Gonzo's dominance), the value of TE1 using a static TE12 baseline is:1135660931059365Average - 85for PPR:175908912017412986Average - 130
The Kansas Comet
Footballguy
I think the main reason it doesn't make sense to draft Gates before any WR is in most leagues you can get him after you've drafted a top WR. In a 12 team redraft last year, I got him at 3.10 after I had drafted Holt in the second round. So while I agree with your point about how Gates can provide a significant advantage over your opponents' teams, that doesn't mean you have to draft him ahead of a top flight WR. Of course, if you don't pick a receiver in the first two rounds, then you might consider drafting Gates before a WR. But aside from that, it seems as most top WR's go a round earlier than Gates.
chris1969
Footballguy
Back in the old days when leagues didn't require you to fill an entire roster in the draft, I could and often did go without drafting a TE,PK, or DEF. I would have to be really active on the waiver wire, but I could always put together good production by either playing match-ups or getting that waiver wire steal. I'm pretty sure I might even be able to get away with the same thing at QB, but have never had the guts to try. I would not ever, EVER, EVER! really on the waiver wire for a RB or WR, they just aren't out there enough. I'll troll the wire if I have to, and snag a guy on the wire that's better then what I have, but it's simply not something you can really count on. I am a lot more comfortable finding that TE #13-32 though that can put up comparable numbers to Gates in week 15.
CalBear
Footballguy
Based on what? A crappy offense, crappy QB, and inability to catch the ball?
SSOG
Moderator
This thread has pretty much everything you might ever want to know on this subject.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Frankly, that's a lot like saying "Id rather take Gates, and target Mark Clayton later because I think hes got similar upside to Marvin Harrison."
CalBear
Footballguy
I think Troy Williamson would be a better comparison. (Reach of a draft pick, taken for physical attributes rather than skills, and having proved nothing so far in the pros). Mark Clayton had a decent season in 2006.
I actually did recently take Gates in the 2nd in a league...but the reasoning behind this was that it was a PPR league, and RB's get 1/2 PPR, WR's get 1 pt, and TE's get 2 PPR. Never seen the rules set up that way, but it did make me bite a LOT earlier than usual. We'll see if it's worth it.
joffer
Footballguy
that is quite a thread
In a league like that Gates is worth a pick in the first round.
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