The Alex Smith /RB1 Correlation (1 Viewer)

[Brisco54]

There is another thread to discuss whether or not the Smith trade was good or bad for the two teams involved.  I am more interested in the fantasy implications, since I am not a close fan of either team.

I have never owned Alex Smith so I never paid much attention to him prior to this trade.  Now that I went back and looked at the stats a pretty interesting correlation showed up.  In the ten season where Alex Smith started the majority of games for his team (all but 2005 and 2007), the starting RB had very good or dominant ppr seasons..  Take a look:

2006 – Gore – 1695/8 + 61/485/1 = 333 PPR points #6RB

2009 – Gore – 1120/10 + 52/406/3 = 282.6 #5RB

2010 – Gore (11 games) – 853/3 + 46/452/2 = 206.2 (300.3 over 16 games) prorated #4RB

2011 – Gore - 1211/8 + 17/114/0 = 197.4 #14RB

2012 – Gore – 1214/8 + 28/234/1 = 226.8 #10RB

2013 – Charles – 1287/12 + 70/693/7 = 382 #1RB

2014 – Charles – 1033/9 + 40/291/5 = 256.4 #7RB

2015 – (Charles/Ware/West) – 1401/14 + 47/396/2 = 322.7 Starter was #1 RB if combined

2016 – Ware (14 games) – 921/3 + 33/447/2 = 199.8 (228.3) #15RB

2017 – Hunt  - 1327/8 + 53/455/3 = 297.2 #4RB

That's 8 of 10 top ten RB seasons and the other two are still 14 and 15 place finishes and 5 top five finishes... WOW

50% of the time Smith has been the start for the season, his RB has finished in the top 5 overall,

80% of the time in the top 10 overall and

100% of the time in the top 15. 

And that's with 5 different RBs over those ten seasons.

Ok.. I get that this is just correlation, not causation.

(And I get that proration of stats (2010 &2016) is not a great statistical practice; and I also get that the 2015 combined stats of the three RBs to start inflated those figures, but I am pretty sure if I data mined to extract out all stats from runs when the player was not the starter, it would still safely be in the top 5.)

But still.... WOW!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ok.. I get that this is just correlation, not causation.

It could be causation. He doesn't turn the ball over - giving RBs more opportunities - and is king of the dump off pass.

ETA: He did play with 2 borderline Hall of Fame RBs though as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

I dont think Washington has Gore or Charles on their team but Chis Thompson should still be good.

Its not like Cousins was a bad QB.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I dont think Washington has Gore or Charles on their team but Chis Thompson should still be good.

Its not like Cousins was a bad QB.

Perine and Cthompson provide a nice Lightning & thunder combo

 

[Snorkelson]

Lol, gore and Charles had great years before Alex smith came along too. Hunt is good back in his own right and Andy Reid has also correlated to fantasy dominant rbs as well. 

 

[Brisco54]

It could be causation. He doesn't turn the ball over - giving RBs more opportunities - and is king of the dump off pass.

ETA: He did play with 2 borderline Hall of Fame RBs though as well.

You bring up a good point.  Gore's reception and receiving yards were cut in half after Smith moved to KC.  From 2006 to 2010 he averaged 51 rec and 430 yards ... from 2012 to 2017 those numbers dropped to 26 and 212 (almost exactly half!)... while his rushing yards remained comparatively constant.

However, with the notable exception of 2013, Charles' receiving numbers were about the same with and without Smith.

Maybe it is just the talent and system around him or maybe his style of play does give RBs a healthy bump.  I know I now have more interest in the WASH backfield then I used to.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Perine and Cthompson provide a nice Lightning & thunder combo

No

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Perine and Cthompson provide a nice Lightning & thunder combo

Not with Gruden calling the plays.   It's not that he doesn't call running plays.  He just doesn't have good ones or coach the running game well.

Under Shanny, Alfred Morris had 1600 and 1200 yards in 2012/13.   Gruden came in.  That number dropped to 1000 yards in the one year Gruden had Morris.  SInce Morris left, the Skins leading rusher hasn't been over 706 yards.  That's 44 yards per game.

He's too delicate of a genius to design good running plays.

 

[petekrum]

Unless they draft a new guy there won’t be a top 5 RB on the Redskins this year.

 

[Brisco54]

Unless they draft a new guy there won’t be a top 5 RB on the Redskins this year.

That's a pretty safe prediction... but not really germane to the conversation.  The question is not, Does Alex Smith turn RB30 into RB5?, but rather does he turn the RB30 into an RB20.  40 extra ppr points over a season can do that.

I have found that, in experienced, competitive leagues, you make your money in the mid to late rounds when you value some piece of data that others have missed or discounted.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

No

Check thompsons ppg stats in ppr. He was rb #12 in my ppr league. Nothing to sneeze at

 

[DallasDMac]

It could be causation. He doesn't turn the ball over - giving RBs more opportunities - and is king of the dump off pass.

You mean the guy that led the NFL this season in completions where the ball was in the air more than 15 yards?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

You mean the guy that led the NFL this season in completions where the ball was in the air more than 15 yards?

Yeah i wonder if people even watches him this year. Tyreek was catching deep bombs  all year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

You mean the guy that led the NFL this season in completions where the ball was in the air more than 15 yards?

Yeah because we were only talking about THIS season. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Yeah i wonder if people even watches him this year. Tyreek was catching deep bombs  all year.

He was great this season but he was way more aggressive than he ever was and that was constantly brought up and commented on. Its as if people reply to a topic without reading the context of that topic.

 

[zftcg]

Could be something there, but I'd attribute it more to a) playing with a future HOFer in his prime in SF and b) playing under an Andy Reid offense, which perennially produces RB1s. As for Gore's receiving totals going down after Smith left, that's fairly common as RBs get older.

 

[Brisco54]

Could be something there, but I'd attribute it more to a) playing with a future HOFer in his prime in SF and b) playing under an Andy Reid offense, which perennially produces RB1s. As for Gore's receiving totals going down after Smith left, that's fairly common as RBs get older.

Legitimate counter-points, both.  On the Gore issue however, I do not think history agrees with your assertion.  Age in RBs normally follows one of two general patterns... the fall off a cliff to immediate irrelevance or the gradual decline.  Gore's receiving stats reflect two different (and relatively consistent) plateaus bordered by losing Smith as his QB. 

The post Smith range is 2012-2017.  If age was the culprit, his receiving scores at the end of the range should be less than at the beginning.   That didn't happen. 

In 2012 Gore had 28/234.  Very similar to the 29/245 he had in 2017.. and both numbers are very close to the average of 26/212 he had for the entire range set.   

Don't get me wrong.. I am not saying this proves the loss of Smith was the catalyst to the change in plateau... only that it probably eliminates age as the answer.