The Asomugha Factor increases.. (1 Viewer)

[Jayrod]

Link

After being tethered almost exclusively to the right side of Oakland's secondary, the two-time Pro Bowl defensive back is getting his freedom and will roam the field covering opponents' top receiver no matter where he lines up.

It's a change in strategy and philosophy for the Raiders and the man-to-man coverages favored by owner Al Davis, a change the 29-year-old Asomugha fully embraces.

"Every year there are times when it happens but this year I just think it will happen more because we're doing it [in practice] more and they're allowing it to happen more," Asomugha said this week. "Me being able to play in the slot on third down ... I've wanted that for a while."

Asomugha was widely recognized as the top defensive back in the league when he grabbed a career-high eight interceptions in 2006 and garnered his first Pro Bowl selection. Opponents became so frustrated they nearly quit throwing to Asomugha's side of the field entirely.

In 2009, quarterbacks attempted only 28 passes in Asomugha's direction compared to 111 for Revis. The lack of action cemented Asomugha's reputation in the eyes of some but created doubt among others.

That's why the eight-year veteran is welcoming his new role after flirting with it periodically throughout his career.

"There are so many times when I feel like I'm having the game of my life and no one knows it," Asomugha said. "That's rough. No one sees it. The offenses see it, the people that watch film see it but the fans don't see it."

Basically, if your WR is facing Asomugha that week, bench him. Luckily no top fantasy WR's have to face him twice except for maybe Vincent Jackson (Bowe has him in week 17). However, beware of Reggie Wayne in the week 16. You may also want to be wary of your QB that week since he'll be playing with 1/2 a field.Here's Oakland's schedule and relevant WR:

1 @TEN - ??

2 STL - ??

3 @ARI - L. Fitzgerald

4 HOU - A. Johnson

5 SD - V. Jackson ?

6 @SF - M. Crabtree

7 @DEN - ??

8 SEA - ??

9 KC - Bowe

10 BYE - whew, rest easy

11 @PIT - Ward?

12 MIA - Marshall

13 @SD - V. Jackson ?

14 @JAC - M. Sims-Walker

15 DEN - ??

16 IND - Wayne

17 @KC - Bowe

Honestly, I'll be considering these games almost like a second bye week. Only guys you'd probably be unable to sit are Fitz, AJ & Marshall, but I'd look hard for other options that week.

 

[Mmen of Steel]

Always....ALWAYS start your studs.

 

[zoobird]

Good post. Asomugha following the top WR more is huge. Are there any CBs besides him and Revis that are generally worth avoiding?

 

[Jayrod]

Always....ALWAYS start your studs.

Not in this case. Like I said, AJ, Fitz & Marshall will be tough for any team to replace, but I'd think long and hard about it that week.Nnamadi IS the stud.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Good post. Asomugha following the top WR more is huge. Are there any CBs besides him and Revis that are generally worth avoiding?

not yet, but I think Mia will have one, maybe 2 shutdown CBs in the future depending on how Smith and Davis develop

 

[Tau837]

No way I would bench someone like AJ because he was playing the Raiders. He is a great defensive back, but he really didn't perform well at all last year when targeted.

 

[Jayrod]

No way I would bench someone like AJ because he was playing the Raiders. He is a great defensive back, but he really didn't perform well at all last year when targeted.

You mean all 28 times? I guess if you are comfortable with you WR getting all of 2 targets one game, than by all means ignore away. (Again, I'm really not saying you should bench AJ, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him around 4 catches for 50 yards that week)

 

[Sweet Love]

I am going to throw "it" out there. Is there a way to look at his performance over the past couple of years versus the #1s? I am curious for many reasons, one is whether teams moved their #1 to the other side of the field to avoid him in the past when he played a "side" versus a player.

 

[LBH]

i wonder how much this impacts his value from an IDP perspective

 

[Jayrod]

i wonder how much this impacts his value from an IDP perspective

Same as always.He's basically worthless in IDP.

 

[Tau837]

No way I would bench someone like AJ because he was playing the Raiders. He is a great defensive back, but he really didn't perform well at all last year when targeted.

You mean all 28 times? I guess if you are comfortable with you WR getting all of 2 targets one game, than by all means ignore away. (Again, I'm really not saying you should bench AJ, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him around 4 catches for 50 yards that week)

1. He got targeted 28 times and QBs had a 98.1 rating on those attempts. They should have targeted him a lot more. Laugh if you will. 2. He was only covering opposing #1 WRs for 15 of their targets against the Raiders, while other Raiders DBs were covering opposing #1 WRs for 98 targets. If he is going to now be covering #1 WRs most of the time, he will obviously be targeted much more often. Old post on this that was comparing Revis and Asomugha:

Against the Raiders, #1 WRs were targeted 113 times by my count, and Asomugha was only covering them 15 times (13.2%). Against the Jets, #1 WRs were targeted 109 times by my count, and Revis was covering them 78 times (71.6%).

I think the main point of this data is that Asomugha is not covering the #1 WRs nearly as often as Revis. I think this data fits FreeBagel's posted explanation very well... Revis most often covers #1 WRs, and often without help, while Asomugha most often covers lesser WRs with #1 WRs being covered by others... which makes it much more attractive to avoid Asomugha than to avoid Revis. (Even though the numbers show they were mistaken - they should have targeted Asomugha more often and Revis less often.)

On a side note, I just made a discouraging discovery in responding to this... ProFootballFocus is now a pay site.

 

[Tau837]

I am going to throw "it" out there. Is there a way to look at his performance over the past couple of years versus the #1s? I am curious for many reasons, one is whether teams moved their #1 to the other side of the field to avoid him in the past when he played a "side" versus a player.

My previous post addresses this for 2009 only. If you go to that thread, I actually listed game by game target info for 2009.

 

[karmarooster]

i wonder how much this impacts his value from an IDP perspective

Same as always.He's basically worthless in IDP.

Exhibit A why IDP is dumb.

 

[Jayrod]

i wonder how much this impacts his value from an IDP perspective

Same as always.He's basically worthless in IDP.

Exhibit A why IDP is dumb.

I believe the word you were looking for is "different". Do not mock what you do not understand, grasshopper.

 

[LBH]

i wonder how much this impacts his value from an IDP perspective

Same as always.He's basically worthless in IDP.

Exhibit A why IDP is dumb.

IDP leagues = more difficult than cookie cutter leagues = more fun for me

 

[LittlePhatty]

Exhibit A why IDP is dumb.

IDP is the only way to play this game.Asomugha will be tested more this season. If they move him around I don't see how anyone could expect another 28-target season.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

No way I would bench someone like AJ because he was playing the Raiders. He is a great defensive back, but he really didn't perform well at all last year when targeted.

You mean all 28 times? I guess if you are comfortable with you WR getting all of 2 targets one game, than by all means ignore away. (Again, I'm really not saying you should bench AJ, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him around 4 catches for 50 yards that week)

1. He got targeted 28 times and QBs had a 98.1 rating on those attempts. They should have targeted him a lot more. Laugh if you will. 2. He was only covering opposing #1 WRs for 15 of their targets against the Raiders, while other Raiders DBs were covering opposing #1 WRs for 98 targets. If he is going to now be covering #1 WRs most of the time, he will obviously be targeted much more often. Old post on this that was comparing Revis and Asomugha:

Against the Raiders, #1 WRs were targeted 113 times by my count, and Asomugha was only covering them 15 times (13.2%). Against the Jets, #1 WRs were targeted 109 times by my count, and Revis was covering them 78 times (71.6%).

I think the main point of this data is that Asomugha is not covering the #1 WRs nearly as often as Revis. I think this data fits FreeBagel's posted explanation very well... Revis most often covers #1 WRs, and often without help, while Asomugha most often covers lesser WRs with #1 WRs being covered by others... which makes it much more attractive to avoid Asomugha than to avoid Revis. (Even though the numbers show they were mistaken - they should have targeted Asomugha more often and Revis less often.)

On a side note, I just made a discouraging discovery in responding to this... ProFootballFocus is now a pay site.

I don't know that the numbers show that. Targets means a throw was made. So if a CB is doing a real lock down, there are many throws that are not made. And it stands to reason that if a throw is made, the QB saw NA give enough of a window to feel confident to make that throw. Now, Revis had passes completed on him as well. And if he is always following the #1, it stands to reason the throws get forced to him by a QB just trying to let his #1 make a play in one-on-one.

So given the small sample size and given that NA typically plays a side instead of a player, the argument could be made that NA only gets thrown to when he is out of position while Revis gets thrown to both when he is locking someone down and when he is out of position. They both could be giving up as many receptions due to poor execution but Revis's scheme will funnel bad throws to him as well which then dillutes his poor plays so his % looks better.

I'm not arguing that this is what the numbers mean, I'm simply arguing that we don't know what they mean. It will take this season's numbers to make any meaningful comparison as to which CB you're better off throwing to.

 

[two_dollars]

Vincent Jackson ate this guy up, didn't he?

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Agree with JWB.

There was no real reason for teams to force it toward NA, since they could easily create favorable matchups on the other side of the field using whatever weapons they preferred.

But they're not going to forget who their horses are just because NA's on them. They'll go at him a lot more, and he'll give up some plays. I haven't seen anything from him in a year or more that suggests he's a bona fide Deion style shutdown corner these days. Teams just haven't been tempting fate, because there really hasn't been much need to.

 

[OU#1]

So when OAK plays SD does that mean he is on Gates?

 

[The Jacket]

No way I would bench someone like AJ because he was playing the Raiders. He is a great defensive back, but he really didn't perform well at all last year when targeted.

You mean all 28 times? I guess if you are comfortable with you WR getting all of 2 targets one game, than by all means ignore away. (Again, I'm really not saying you should bench AJ, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him around 4 catches for 50 yards that week)

So take the 9 points and move on. AJ will be back to 25-30 the next week. Assuming of course that AJ doesn't go VJax on Aso - which he has more chance of doing than any other WR on Aso's schedule, and Aso won't go the whole year without giving up a good/great fantasy game. Your point is noted but benching a stud (legit stud, that is, not a high-end WR2) isn't sensible.

 

[karmarooster]

some useful info from FOA:

There is Nnamdi Asomugha and there is everyone else. There’s not much to say about Asomugha at this point that you don’t already know; yes, he is that good, and yes, he deserves better than his fate. What makes Aso- mugha different from Darrelle Revis is that Revis was preventing passes last year with great coverage, while Asomugha was preventing passes simply by virtue of his existence. Every other cornerback with at least 12 starts had more than twice as many targets as Asomugha. Even better, Asomugha brings a strong all-around game; his numbers on run tackles are consistently excellent, and they’re backed up by watching him play. When the Broncos threw a throwback pass to Ryan Clady this year, Clady was one-in-one in the open field against Asomugha. Most corners would be intimidated by a guy that outweighs them by 100-plus pounds; Asomugha just sprinted towards him and cut out his legs. The problem is that opponents can easily scheme around Asomugha. Like many defenses, the Raiders gener- ally leave their cornerbacks on specific sides, with Asomugha on the offensive left and Chris Johnson on the offensive right. So, of course, Oakland opponents threw only 27 percent of passes to the left, the lowest figure in the league. A full 50 percent of passes thrown to opposing number-one receivers had either Chris Johnson or Stanford Routt in coverage. Only 12 percent had Asomugha in coverage. To give one example, last year Kyle Orton threw 67 passes to Brandon Marshall on the left side of the field. Not a single one of those came in the two games against Oakland. This is why the 2009 Raiders were dominated by opposing number-one receivers, and why Chris Johnson is targeted more than any cornerback in football.

ETA - Chris Johnson, best player in real fantasy football, and best IDP corner now, too!

 

[massraider]

I'll believe it when I see it.

There has been talk of this before, and it hasn't really panned out. And this is just talk, there is nothing concrete from Cable saying that Aso is going to shadow the other teams' top receiver. I wouldn't worry about starting a stud WR vs. Oakland, unless they were in an offense that had them constantly on the left side of the offense. It's nice to read, and I hope it does happen, but I think I'd wait and see how it plays out in the first few actual games, before making plans to bench players.

Quick little IDP note on Chris Johnson: He didn't get as many tackles as one would expect playing across form Aso, and is involved in a battle for his job with Stanford Routt.

 

[Jed]

If true, this is huge news. I would bench anyone vs Asomugha, stud or not.

 

[Jed]

I wouldn't call IDP dumb (because that's one of my leagues ) but what do IDP players think about someone like Asomugha being useless in this format?

I remember Cromarte being huge in IDP a couple years ago, because everyone in the world would throw at him.

 

[massraider]

I wouldn't call IDP dumb (because that's one of my leagues ) but what do IDP players think about someone like Asomugha being useless in this format? I remember Cromarte being huge in IDP a couple years ago, because everyone in the world would throw at him.

Not really very different than a Troy Aikman being pretty useless when he used to play. Or a stud blocking TE being useless. IDP leagues aren't trying to recreate the NFL, so that the best players are the best fantasy players, it's just another way to have fun. Think about it, should it be the responsibility of a league commissioner to make sure that Nnamdi Asomougha is a productive fantasy player? Is anyone involved in the league not having fun because Aso isn't worth rostering? This whole "It doesn't correctly mirror the NFL, so it is a stupid format" is one of the dumbest arguments someone can make. Who cares? Casey Hampton and Vince Wilfork are great players, but not great fantasy players. Thus far, on Sundays, it hasn't affected the enjoyment of my IDP leagues. Somehow, I suspect it will continue that way.