BostonFred,My comments were more of a response to his overall point than a commentary on the Ravens/Pats game in particular. OP was claiming that the Pats can somehow magically eek out close victories when they don't play well and a worse team is in the game(or even winning the game) late in the 4th quarter. He was also claiming that some 1 or 2 loss teams of the past lack this "ability." I think thats complete BS. Do you disagree?I think the Pats are one of the best teams during my lifetime along with the 91 Skins, 85 Bears, and 89 49ers. I think the 96 Pack, 98 Broncos, and 04 Pats are right behind that group. So please don't take my comments as "Pats hating." I think you know by now that I'm above that. Theres a lot of stupidity imo in the sports world, starting with ESPN and trickling(sp?) on down to the average fan. I just think so many people fail to understand the role of luck and standard deviation in sports. Things like "clutchness" and "will to win" and this thread simply drive me crazy, yet so many people hold to them as absolute truths.P.S. Feels like I havn't talked to you on the board in forever man....hows it been? Coming to Vegas anytime soon?
Here's the best I can describe what I'm saying. Let's say that on a scale of 1 to 100, the Patriots are generally a 90. Let's also say that Ravens are a 70. Let's also say that the Browns are a 75. On any given Sunday, those numbers will fluctuate, like in Madden, but let's say that that's their overall rating. I think the Ravens put up one of their best games. They played lights out defense, they got pressure on Brady, they were able to not just cover Moss but also Welker, which nobody else has done, even if it did mean a little more grabbing than usual. If they're normally a 70, I'd say they played more like an 80 this week. The Pats did not put up one of their best games. They dropped some passes, they struggled on run defense. But they also passed the ball well considering how well the receivers were covered, ran the ball pretty well, and were able to get three and outs when they needed to, including some third and shorts. If they're normally a 90, I'd say they played more like an 80 this week, too. That's one kind of variance. The other part - the luck part - also plays a role in every game - when an oblong ball bounces on the ground, it might bounce right back to the player who fumbled it, it might bounce to a defender, or it might roll harmlessly out of bounds. A ball you might normally catch flutters in the wind and you don't adjust properly, so it falls harmlessly to the ground. The defender holds your receiver, and the ref doesn't see it, but when you hold theirs, the ref sees it and throws a flag. You can control some of it, but not all of it. I'd say that both teams benefitted from that latter kind of variance this week. The Ravens benefitted a lot more in the first three quarters. Some of it was out of the players' control - the wind which caused more passes to sail on Brady than normal - and some wasn't, like the Darling reception, or the missed touchdown by Watson, or some of the Pats' penalties that were called while the Ravens' weren't. If things had broken the other way on a few of those, the Pats would have been leading early. But the Pats clearly benefitted a lot more at the end of the game. The timeout call might not have been unfair to the Ravens, but it was certainly unfortunate variance for them. The holding call was terrible timing for them, but there's no question they held, and were holding on other plays. At the end of the day, is it more correct to say the two teams played a fairly evenly matched game, and the Pats came out on top due to variance? Or to say that the Pats had already been dinged up by variance all game, and only made up for it at the end? Are they a 90 who played like a 70 but benefitted from variance enough to beat a 70 who played like an 80? Or are they a 90 who played like an 80 but were hurt so much by variance that they struggled to beat a 70? We get to see about 16-20 trials per year from each team in the NFL to get a feel for what their overall ranking should be, but it's hard to look at any single game and say, this team is a 100, and that team's a zero. Look at the Bills in 2003, who beat the Pats 38-0 in week one, only to lose 38-0 to them at the end of the season. Were the Pats a bad team who couldn't beat the Bills? Or was Lawyer Milloy's intimate knowledge of the gameplan the difference? I think most people - including Milloy, who bragged about it later - would lean towards the latter. The great teams of the past had bad days, just like the Pats. And they had great days, just like the Pats. The question is, were they, overall, a 95? Or a 90? The Pats are on pace to set a lot of offensive records, and have very good overall numbers in rush offense and defense despite the perception of their recent performance. If they set all kinds of records en route to a 19-0 season and Superbowl championship - which is far from a given - then it's absurd to say that they weren't a great team. They'd have to be considered the greatest ever, because there would be very few metrics by which to argue that another team with a worse offense or defense that had lost games was better. And we'd look back and say, overall, their games against Baltimore and Philly were the result of bad variance, because this team is way better than those two. On the other hand, if they lose to the Steelers this weekend after another poor defensive performance, and Moss gets shut down again, and the offensive line struggles to protect Brady, we'd be more likely to say that the Pats lost because of a change in their play, or because teams had figured them out, and we wouldn't look at them as the greatest ever. As for Vegas, I'm not sure when I'll be there next. If I'm coming out I'll ping you, though; it'd be great to sit at a table together for a bit. Do you play in any live tournaments out there? Or just NL ring?