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Footballguy
Looks like the Sox and Yanks are the tops in the mix
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Johan Santana has drawn much of the attention this week, but he is not the only left-handed pitcher in whom the Red Sox [team stats] have expressed significant interest.
In some ways, Erik Bedard makes more sense.
According to industry sources, the Red Sox and New York Yankees thus far have made the best offers for Bedard, a 28-year-old who is realizing his potential with the Baltimore Orioles. The primary obstacle in any deal involving the Sox or Yankees is the reluctance of Baltimore owner Peter Angelos to trade within the division, even though the Orioles seem intent on embarking on a full youth movement.
So why, then, would the Orioles trade Bedard, who was arguably the best left-hander in the American League last season? Excellent question. But with the O’s seeking to trade Miguel Tejada, among others, Bedard could bring a package of good young players comparable to what the Twins might be able to secure for Santana.
In such a scenario, the rebuilding O’s could truly start from the ground up while lowering payroll considerably.
Pitching for an abysmal Baltimore team in a hitters’ ballpark last season, Bedard had a better ERA (3.16) than either AL Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia (3.21) or Santana (3.33). Bedard also averaged an AL-leading 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, blowing away both Santana (9.66) and Sabathia (7.80), while finishing with a 13-5 record and 182 innings pitched.
Also, unlike Santana, Bedard is not eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season. And because Bedard does not have nearly the resume that Santana does, he could be signed to a far more reasonable contract than the estimated six-year, $150 million deal Santana seeks.
Still, Angelos’ reluctance to deal in the AL East is not the only potential obstacle in the deal. Talent is another. According to one major league source, the Orioles recently discussed Bedard with the Los Angeles Dodgers and asked for a package of prospects that included 23-year-old outfielder Matt Kemp, third baseman Andy LaRoche and 19-year-old left-hander Clayton Kershaw, the last of whom was the Dodgers’ first-round pick in 2006 and reached Double A at the end of last season.
Reportedly, the Dodgers rejected Baltimore’s proposal out of hand.
While it is unclear what particular prospects the Sox have discussed with Baltimore, the Orioles have some of the same wants and needs as the Minnesota Twins, to whom the Sox were willing to deal, in an array of scenarios, Jon Lester [stats], Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury. From the start, however, the Sox made it clear to Minnesota that they would deal only one of those three top-level prospects.
In addition to a starting pitcher and center fielder, the O’s also are believed to be in the market for a first baseman, shortstop and closer. The Sox could address some of those needs with players like minor league infielder Jed Lowrie and reliever Manny Delcarmen, among others.
Bedard’s health is somewhat of a concern, too. He has never pitched as many as 200 innings in a season and finished 2007 on the disabled list with an oblique injury. Bedard also had tendon-transplant (or Tommy John) surgery early in his career, though he has clearly bounced back from that problem.
By all indications, Bedard’s salary for 2008 would be somewhere in the range of $6 million-$7 million. The pitcher avoided arbitration last offseason by agreeing to a one-year, $3.4 million contract with the Orioles. Because any team would have until the end of 2009 to sign Bedard to an extension, it could be argued that he comes with less long-term risk than Santana, who would require a contract extension from any team trading for him.