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The fight for TE3 and later (1 Viewer)

Zyphros

Footballguy
I think it's pretty clear who the top 2 are so no need to go into that. But after that I think any one of roughly 7 others could be fighting for that #3 spot. Julius Thomas, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert, Charles Clay, Eric Ebron, ASJ, Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green. I could see an argument to be made for just about every one of them. So how do you see the top10 or so shaking out?

Julius Thomas - Jacksonville is a new destination and there is no arguing that Peyton inflated his value. I'm guessing here but does Gus Bradley use his TE that much? Not sure but if he doesn't and with the plenty of WR's he has I could see Julius being the odd man out.

Travis Kelce - Him and Julius are likely the 2 safest options of choosing a couple more top10 TE's but Alex Smith doesn't throw many deep passes and Kelce isn't exactly the "make you miss" type of dude. More of a run you over type, but the offense should be good enough to keep him productive.

Zach Ertz - Will Chip unleash him is the question. If they don't add a WR this year then his opportunity goes up and I think he's pretty safely in that top10 range.

Martellus Bennett - Again if they don't add a WR then his opportunity goes up and he's proven to be very productive when he has the chance. Injuries are the question but he's done very well with his past opportunities.

Greg Olsen - Another safe option to crack the top10. Probably as safe as you can get other than the top2.

Jordan Cameron - New offense in Miami but they used Clay pretty well in the past. Should have good opportunity with Wallace gone as well. Only has Landry taking targets away right now and if that doesn't change I'd be buying. Injuries are a concern though.

Kyle Rudolph - Is he always a "what-if" player? It seems he's on the outside looking in but he has the talent to be a top TE.

Tyler Eifert - A guy everyone seems to always be waiting for a break out. Will it ever come? Lot's of target hogs in that offense with AJ Green, Gio, even Hill and a RB oriented coach so who knows.

Charles Clay - New offense in Buffalo and QB questions, but he's a great underneath target. Don't think anyone can question that. The question is if he fits in the offense and who the QB is. EJ might be better at check downs so his owners might want to hope for that.

Eric Ebron - Lots of people have him as "the next best TE prospect" so here's to hoping 1 year in he starts showing more signs of that.

Austin Seferian-Jenks - Big target for Winston/Mariota along with Evans/Vjax on the outside, TD's could come by the plenty if he takes another step forward too.

Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green - People who have been waiting for Green to break out might finally get their wish. Gates is another year older and beat up and if Rivers is gone from SD there isn't that connection holding Green back (just the coaching staff possibly). Between the 2 of them I think they will outscore every TE not name Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham but it could end up being a 50/50. Green owners might be waiting even longer.

It's an interesting take that all of these TE's could be fighting for that #3 spot, and even though there are safe options their ceiling may not be as high as some of the younger guys who are up and coming. It's anyone's race. What's your take?

ETA: These are in no particular order, just got the list from a ranking online, but they don't reflect my rankings or their likelihood to become the top/bottom of the TE group

 
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Gronk

Graham

Olsen

Kelce (dynasty TE3)

Bennett

Cameron (dynasty TE5)

Gates/Green

Ertz

Thomas

Chandler/Wright - Broncos TE

Darkhorse being if the Broncos draft a TE. I don't think Daniels will be TE8 or better, but if they take a TE, who knows.

 
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I think Kelce is the safest TE3 option...both this year and for dynasty.

I LOVE (love, love, love) ASJ long term but think he has another year of learning to go (like the whole TB offense will).

 
Darkhorse being if the Broncos draft a TE. I don't think Daniels will be TE8 or better, but if they take a TE, who knows.
They have Virgil Green re-signed for like $3 million a year. He's a terrific blocker with good hands. His route-running had to improve but he's super athletic. I was hoping he'd hit the open market somehow.

 
Darkhorse being if the Broncos draft a TE. I don't think Daniels will be TE8 or better, but if they take a TE, who knows.
They have Virgil Green re-signed for like $3 million a year. He's a terrific blocker with good hands. His route-running had to improve but he's super athletic. I was hoping he'd hit the open market somehow.
Thats part of the reason I don't think Daniels can be better than TE8, I think Green will be involved. If they take a TE however (if they do I think they'll be reaching for Williams, Funchess or Walford.) - to me that seems like they are going a whole other direction.

 
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Tyler Eifert - A guy everyone seems to always be waiting for a break out. Will it ever come? Lot's of target hogs in that offense with AJ Green, Gio, even Hill and a RB oriented coach so who knows.
"Always" meaning the one season (his rookie year) when he was actually healthy? I feel like you have to scrub Eifert's 2014 from the record books. It didn't tell us anything about him. I remain high on his skill set and think he's an excellent TE to target right now.

Like Cameron if he can stay healthy. Optimistic that Ebron can develop and make an impact. Kelce was impressive last year.

Not expecting anyone to reach that elite Graham/Gronk level of production though.

 
what makes you think graham is locked in at 2?

and plz don't say things like Graham/Gronk level

 
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I clearly forgot some but the point I was trying to convey was that the door is pretty wide open for 10+ guys to be near the top. There's plenty of room for all of them and I tried to point out the ones that are pretty safe options, but there's so many question marks around the lot of them.

 
I don't think the battle for TE2 has been won yet. Graham in Sea won't be the same as Graham in NO.

 
I don't think the battle for TE2 has been won yet. Graham in Sea won't be the same as Graham in NO.
Granted there's risk with Graham but he's still more likely to finish #2 than anyone else but he is now part of the conversation while before it was him and Gronk, then the rest.

I categorize the next tier as risk/reward vs safety net.

We can be reasonably sure that barring injury, Olsen and Bennett will be near the top 5. None of the rest really have that safety.

Kelce, ertz, Eifert, Ebron, JT, Cameron, Clay, Rudolph, and ASJ could be top 5 but are more likely to disappoint than Olsen/Bennett. Some seem to have more risk of not doing well without injury but it's debatable.

Gates, witten, and Daniels could also be top 5 but due to age seem more likely to fall off.

imo it's just a question of whether you take the safe play or upside. For the two dynasty leagues I'm a strong contender in, I'll take Olsen. Others I'll take more risk with the others.

 
What do you expect to happen to Graham's numbers? What about his targets?

The last 4 years he has played on a team that has never thrown less than 650 passes. He's now going to a team that has never thrown for more than 509 in that same span, 4 years ago. The last 3 years Sea has not thrown more than 454 times.

Graham has had at least 85 targets in each of his last 4 seasons as well. I have a hard time envisioning him matching that amount in Sea, where they pass significantly less.

 
Tyler Eifert - A guy everyone seems to always be waiting for a break out. Will it ever come? Lot's of target hogs in that offense with AJ Green, Gio, even Hill and a RB oriented coach so who knows.
"Always" meaning the one season (his rookie year) when he was actually healthy? I feel like you have to scrub Eifert's 2014 from the record books. It didn't tell us anything about him. I remain high on his skill set and think he's an excellent TE to target right now.
I also like Eifert this year, but as someone mentioned above, I'm not sure he'll corral enough volume in a very run-oriented system and with Green hogging targets, along with a Bernard, Hill and a returning Jones getting theirs.

I'm looking closely at what the Eagles do at WR for the draft, because if they don't add an impact player, Ertz could really take off this year.

 
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Unless you want to take Gronk in the 1st, I see no reason to jump on TEs until the later rounds this year in redraft. In my main league last season, the difference between TE2 (Graham) and TE 12 (Donnell) was 4.5ppg. The difference between TE3 (Gates) and TE 12 was 3.9ppg. You can easily make up those points through your WR/RB/QB earlier in the draft.

 
I don't think the battle for TE2 has been won yet. Graham in Sea won't be the same as Graham in NO.
Granted there's risk with Graham but he's still more likely to finish #2 than anyone else but he is now part of the conversation while before it was him and Gronk, then the rest.

I categorize the next tier as risk/reward vs safety net.

We can be reasonably sure that barring injury, Olsen and Bennett will be near the top 5. None of the rest really have that safety.
orly

 
What do you expect to happen to Graham's numbers? What about his targets?

The last 4 years he has played on a team that has never thrown less than 650 passes. He's now going to a team that has never thrown for more than 509 in that same span, 4 years ago. The last 3 years Sea has not thrown more than 454 times.

Graham has had at least 85 targets in each of his last 4 seasons as well. I have a hard time envisioning him matching that amount in Sea, where they pass significantly less.
They pass signficantly less than New Orleans for a few reasons, one of which is they didn't have a receiving threat remotely close to Graham's talent. Doug freakin' Baldwin had 98 targets last year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I bet Russell would rather throw to Graham than Baldwin. I have little doubt of Graham getting more than 85 targets. Probably not 125 but enough that he'll be right up there with the top TEs.

I don't think the battle for TE2 has been won yet. Graham in Sea won't be the same as Graham in NO.
Granted there's risk with Graham but he's still more likely to finish #2 than anyone else but he is now part of the conversation while before it was him and Gronk, then the rest.

I categorize the next tier as risk/reward vs safety net.

We can be reasonably sure that barring injury, Olsen and Bennett will be near the top 5. None of the rest really have that safety.
orly
Why wouldn't he be? Granted, he might not score as many TDs as others but he had more receptions than any other TE last year, only Olsen and Gronk had more yardage, and his volume will probably increase with Marshall gone. Bear in mind, "near top 5" doesn't mean in the top 5, just that the difference between him and #5 won't be significant.

 
Eifert will be draft-eligible in my dynasty league this year. I think he is better than Maxx Williams, but where would you take him in a rookie draft?

 
I watched Eric Ebron every game last season. I have a hard time believing he will put up decent numbers this season for a couple of reasons. First and foremost he has bad hands and Stofford would not even look his way towards the end of last season. Second with Calvin and Golden Tate the slice of the pie is going to be smaller. Third Ebron does not seem mentally ready for the NFL..numerous times last year he lined up in the wrong spot and had to be moved. This was in December and he was still struggling. Having a healthy 6-7 Joe Fauria will not help Ebrons Red-Zone targets as well.

 
What do you expect to happen to Graham's numbers? What about his targets?

The last 4 years he has played on a team that has never thrown less than 650 passes. He's now going to a team that has never thrown for more than 509 in that same span, 4 years ago. The last 3 years Sea has not thrown more than 454 times.

Graham has had at least 85 targets in each of his last 4 seasons as well. I have a hard time envisioning him matching that amount in Sea, where they pass significantly less.
They pass signficantly less than New Orleans for a few reasons, one of which is they didn't have a receiving threat remotely close to Graham's talent. Doug freakin' Baldwin had 98 targets last year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I bet Russell would rather throw to Graham than Baldwin. I have little doubt of Graham getting more than 85 targets. Probably not 125 but enough that he'll be right up there with the top TEs.

I don't think the battle for TE2 has been won yet. Graham in Sea won't be the same as Graham in NO.
Granted there's risk with Graham but he's still more likely to finish #2 than anyone else but he is now part of the conversation while before it was him and Gronk, then the rest.

I categorize the next tier as risk/reward vs safety net.

We can be reasonably sure that barring injury, Olsen and Bennett will be near the top 5. None of the rest really have that safety.
orly
Why wouldn't he be? Granted, he might not score as many TDs as others but he had more receptions than any other TE last year, only Olsen and Gronk had more yardage, and his volume will probably increase with Marshall gone. Bear in mind, "near top 5" doesn't mean in the top 5, just that the difference between him and #5 won't be significant.
:rolleyes:

oh, I don't know..........maybe because they just turned over the entire coaching staff?

I've read this board for years, and every year it's still amazing to me that people posting regularly on a fantasy football board are so oblivious to scheme and how the sport of football works.

one guy has graham locked in at 2 because he was #2 last year, and we all know these things can't change, and that gets followed up with bennett being the safest guy on the list.

if the case we're making is that bennett will be somewhere in the vicinity of top 5, then as that above poster just mentioned, you can make that case about 12 guys, but to say bennett is the safest of those is pretty ridiculous.

are you guys really so completely out of touch with the impact coordinators have on the sport, or do you simply think these guys are all just portable talents and take their stats with them wherever they go?

now, all that said, bennett and graham could end up 1-2 this year, but to stick your head in the sand and pretend there's no risk is really terrible from people who supposedly follow the sport and aren't just married to a guy following the sport.

 
What do you expect to happen to Graham's numbers? What about his targets?

The last 4 years he has played on a team that has never thrown less than 650 passes. He's now going to a team that has never thrown for more than 509 in that same span, 4 years ago. The last 3 years Sea has not thrown more than 454 times.

Graham has had at least 85 targets in each of his last 4 seasons as well. I have a hard time envisioning him matching that amount in Sea, where they pass significantly less.
They pass signficantly less than New Orleans for a few reasons, one of which is they didn't have a receiving threat remotely close to Graham's talent. Doug freakin' Baldwin had 98 targets last year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I bet Russell would rather throw to Graham than Baldwin. I have little doubt of Graham getting more than 85 targets. Probably not 125 but enough that he'll be right up there with the top TEs.

I don't think the battle for TE2 has been won yet. Graham in Sea won't be the same as Graham in NO.
Granted there's risk with Graham but he's still more likely to finish #2 than anyone else but he is now part of the conversation while before it was him and Gronk, then the rest.

I categorize the next tier as risk/reward vs safety net.

We can be reasonably sure that barring injury, Olsen and Bennett will be near the top 5. None of the rest really have that safety.
orly
Why wouldn't he be? Granted, he might not score as many TDs as others but he had more receptions than any other TE last year, only Olsen and Gronk had more yardage, and his volume will probably increase with Marshall gone. Bear in mind, "near top 5" doesn't mean in the top 5, just that the difference between him and #5 won't be significant.
:rolleyes:

oh, I don't know..........maybe because they just turned over the entire coaching staff?

I've read this board for years, and every year it's still amazing to me that people posting regularly on a fantasy football board are so oblivious to scheme and how the sport of football works.

one guy has graham locked in at 2 because he was #2 last year, and we all know these things can't change, and that gets followed up with bennett being the safest guy on the list.

if the case we're making is that bennett will be somewhere in the vicinity of top 5, then as that above poster just mentioned, you can make that case about 12 guys, but to say bennett is the safest of those is pretty ridiculous.

are you guys really so completely out of touch with the impact coordinators have on the sport, or do you simply think these guys are all just portable talents and take their stats with them wherever they go?

now, all that said, bennett and graham could end up 1-2 this year, but to stick your head in the sand and pretend there's no risk is really terrible from people who supposedly follow the sport and aren't just married to a guy following the sport.
:lol: someone spiked your kool-aid, Larry. But thanks for the insults, I needed a laugh this morning.

On the off-chance that you're not trolling and have put thought into this, please educate me/us on how their new OC is going to hurt Bennett's production to the point where he's nowhere near TE5.

 
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Rivera in Oakland could could be a deep sleeper if that offense improves.
who's over there now --- musgrave?

I'd be very leery about rivera --- think he probably got fat on olson's offense.

I was immediately negative on julius when I heard he went to jax, and it will undoubtedly kill his td production, but he might be top 5 targets with olson over there.

don't know if this is nonsense, but ffcalc has him as the 5th or 6th guy off the board, pretty much neck and neck with bennett at the 5/6 turn.

of course, it also has gates as the next guy a round later.

 
Unless you want to take Gronk in the 1st, I see no reason to jump on TEs until the later rounds this year in redraft. In my main league last season, the difference between TE2 (Graham) and TE 12 (Donnell) was 4.5ppg. The difference between TE3 (Gates) and TE 12 was 3.9ppg. You can easily make up those points through your WR/RB/QB earlier in the draft.
This.

And Gates' TE3 was inflated by 12 TDs which is very unlikely to happen. I would expect the gap between TE3 and TE12 to be smaller than 3.9 pts.

And I agree with others that Graham isn't a slam dunk TE2.

 
Unless you want to take Gronk in the 1st, I see no reason to jump on TEs until the later rounds this year in redraft. In my main league last season, the difference between TE2 (Graham) and TE 12 (Donnell) was 4.5ppg. The difference between TE3 (Gates) and TE 12 was 3.9ppg. You can easily make up those points through your WR/RB/QB earlier in the draft.
This.

And Gates' TE3 was inflated by 12 TDs which is very unlikely to happen. I would expect the gap between TE3 and TE12 to be smaller than 3.9 pts.

And I agree with others that Graham isn't a slam dunk TE2.
I don't see Gates having a repeat performance.

I mean last year you had guys like Rudolph, Reed, ASJ, Amaro, Ebron, Eifert, Ertz and Cameron all outside of the top 12. Would it shock anyone if those guys were in the mix this year?

Gronk is clearly the class of the position, but after that, it's a total crapshoot. If you're not taking Gronk, I don't see a reason to take a TE probably until the 7th round at the earliest. Plenty of guys will be available late.

 
I've probably seen 20 names thrown out there in this thread, but not a single mention of vernon davis

I haven't really looked at anything yet this offseason, but people might be sleeping on a guy if he's there at the bottom of the draft and could do just as well as bennett.

 
If Davis was traded to a team with a qb he would be in my top 10 for sure. But he is still a niner, and offseason QB daycare aside, Kaep is awful.

 
What do you expect to happen to Graham's numbers? What about his targets?

The last 4 years he has played on a team that has never thrown less than 650 passes. He's now going to a team that has never thrown for more than 509 in that same span, 4 years ago. The last 3 years Sea has not thrown more than 454 times.

Graham has had at least 85 targets in each of his last 4 seasons as well. I have a hard time envisioning him matching that amount in Sea, where they pass significantly less.
They pass signficantly less than New Orleans for a few reasons, one of which is they didn't have a receiving threat remotely close to Graham's talent. Doug freakin' Baldwin had 98 targets last year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I bet Russell would rather throw to Graham than Baldwin. I have little doubt of Graham getting more than 85 targets. Probably not 125 but enough that he'll be right up there with the top TEs.
He meant at least 85 receptions- he's averaged 138 targets per season over that period, so it seems very likely that those numbers will take a hit in Seattle. I'd still put him at #2 since his floor is high, but I don't think he ends up finishing 2nd.

 
If Davis was traded to a team with a qb he would be in my top 10 for sure. But he is still a niner, and offseason QB daycare aside, Kaep is awful.
He's probably a risk worth taking as he's going somewhere around TE25. But yeah, not thinking he has a good chance to be starting caliber, let alone top 5.

 
What do you expect to happen to Graham's numbers? What about his targets?

The last 4 years he has played on a team that has never thrown less than 650 passes. He's now going to a team that has never thrown for more than 509 in that same span, 4 years ago. The last 3 years Sea has not thrown more than 454 times.

Graham has had at least 85 targets in each of his last 4 seasons as well. I have a hard time envisioning him matching that amount in Sea, where they pass significantly less.
They pass signficantly less than New Orleans for a few reasons, one of which is they didn't have a receiving threat remotely close to Graham's talent. Doug freakin' Baldwin had 98 targets last year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I bet Russell would rather throw to Graham than Baldwin. I have little doubt of Graham getting more than 85 targets. Probably not 125 but enough that he'll be right up there with the top TEs.
He meant at least 85 receptions- he's averaged 138 targets per season over that period, so it seems very likely that those numbers will take a hit in Seattle. I'd still put him at #2 since his floor is high, but I don't think he ends up finishing 2nd.
gotcha, that stat did seem "a bit" low.

Spitballling here but I'd still expect well over 100 targets for Graham.

Agree with your logic, some of these guys - Graham, Olsen and yes even Bennett, hold much of their value simply for their floor.

 
Rivera in Oakland could could be a deep sleeper if that offense improves.
who's over there now --- musgrave?

I'd be very leery about rivera --- think he probably got fat on olson's offense.

I was immediately negative on julius when I heard he went to jax, and it will undoubtedly kill his td production, but he might be top 5 targets with olson over there.

don't know if this is nonsense, but ffcalc has him as the 5th or 6th guy off the board, pretty much neck and neck with bennett at the 5/6 turn.

of course, it also has gates as the next guy a round later.
Very good point. Forgot about the coordinator change in Oakland.

 
Unless you want to take Gronk in the 1st, I see no reason to jump on TEs until the later rounds this year in redraft. In my main league last season, the difference between TE2 (Graham) and TE 12 (Donnell) was 4.5ppg. The difference between TE3 (Gates) and TE 12 was 3.9ppg. You can easily make up those points through your WR/RB/QB earlier in the draft.
This.

And Gates' TE3 was inflated by 12 TDs which is very unlikely to happen. I would expect the gap between TE3 and TE12 to be smaller than 3.9 pts.

And I agree with others that Graham isn't a slam dunk TE2.
I don't see Gates having a repeat performance.

I mean last year you had guys like Rudolph, Reed, ASJ, Amaro, Ebron, Eifert, Ertz and Cameron all outside of the top 12. Would it shock anyone if those guys were in the mix this year?

Gronk is clearly the class of the position, but after that, it's a total crapshoot. If you're not taking Gronk, I don't see a reason to take a TE probably until the 7th round at the earliest. Plenty of guys will be available late.
whoever you take in the 7th is no certainty to give you top 12 points, re the bolded

 
I've probably seen 20 names thrown out there in this thread, but not a single mention of vernon davis

I haven't really looked at anything yet this offseason, but people might be sleeping on a guy if he's there at the bottom of the draft and could do just as well as bennett.
him and Dwayne Allen
 
I've probably seen 20 names thrown out there in this thread, but not a single mention of vernon davis

I haven't really looked at anything yet this offseason, but people might be sleeping on a guy if he's there at the bottom of the draft and could do just as well as bennett.
It is interesting. His numbers were usually better without Crabtree in the lineup. Crabtree is gone, but in comes Torry Smith. He may be worth a late flier, but I wouldn't expect anything big from him.

 
Fleener, a healthy Reed, and maybe Witten should be added to this group....
fleener definitely.

reed would be a worthy option. he was a top 5 dynasty option by some heading into last year, he gets banged up and now he isnt in people top 10 or even 15. is his upside any less then eifert, allen ertz rudolph or cameron? cameron has concussion issues just like reed.

what about hill does he deserve to be on this list?

 
I've probably seen 20 names thrown out there in this thread, but not a single mention of vernon davis

I haven't really looked at anything yet this offseason, but people might be sleeping on a guy if he's there at the bottom of the draft and could do just as well as bennett.
It is interesting. His numbers were usually better without Crabtree in the lineup. Crabtree is gone, but in comes Torry Smith. He may be worth a late flier, but I wouldn't expect anything big from him.
geep chryst, or wtf his name is, spent a good chunk of his coaching career as a te coach and the 2 sorry years he was oc in sd were pretty friendly to the te.

incidentally, and I had absolutely no recollection of this, harbaugh wound up his qb career those same 2 years in sd.

baalke has said he wants to run the ball, but everybody says stuff like that, and chryst's dismal sd offense was 5th in pass attempts with harbaugh at the helm, and 6th the following year when ryan leaf immortalized himself on that infamous 1 win team --- their te, freddie jones, led the team in targets that year with 132, catching 5 of the 19 td they threw.

as mentioned, davis typically got more looks without crabs, and crabs is gone now, along with stevie --- that's 150 targets, and I don't see torrey being such a target hog.

he got 90 targets on a team throwing 550x, while crabs soaked up 100 on a team 4th from the bottom in pass attempts.

even if they're dismal, the niners should have room to grow the pie from the romanesque numbers of the past few years.

as an aside. this is probably a nonsense fluff piece, but I thought it was kind of an interesting read, anyway

http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/3/28/8305073/colin-kaepernick-throwing-mechanics-dennis-gile-quarterback-coach

 
Rivera in Oakland could could be a deep sleeper if that offense improves.
who's over there now --- musgrave?

I'd be very leery about rivera --- think he probably got fat on olson's offense.

I was immediately negative on julius when I heard he went to jax, and it will undoubtedly kill his td production, but he might be top 5 targets with olson over there.

don't know if this is nonsense, but ffcalc has him as the 5th or 6th guy off the board, pretty much neck and neck with bennett at the 5/6 turn.

of course, it also has gates as the next guy a round later.
Very good point. Forgot about the coordinator change in Oakland.
I had pretty much ignored rivera, but since we were talking about it, I googled up this article on musgrave which I thought was kind of interesting.

http://www.silverandblackpride.com/2015/1/19/7855295/what-bill-musgraves-history-could-mean-for-oakland-raiders-offense

 
Guys i would gamble on and try to buy low right now who could be in this discussion;

ASJ, Eifert, Allen, Housler

 

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