Bob Magaw
Footballguy
(cross-posted from cotch thread... it seemed to broach a question and address a subject sufficiently different from the cotch thread that prompted it, to warrant a thread of its own, to explore the broader implications of the trade for the future of the WR corp as a whole...)
edwards and holmes have to be the starters in two WR sets, and cotchery in slot in three WR sets (this year - of course, cotchery would start during a four game holmes suspension)...
as far as the future of cotchery, it is important to discuss what is the future role of edwards and holmes...
do we know they can't all co-exist?
that would be highly unlikely under salary constraints, but what if 2011 and beyond is in the context of a post-cap landscape...
holmes has had a better career than edwards, but arguably no season as good edwards career year with 16 TDs...
holmes was across from ward, edwards hasn't had somebody as good as ward (or holmes, for that matter) across from him... cotchery is solid, but not a star...
if edwards can be more consistent, he does have the pedigree and physical ability to be outstanding...
edwards did cost more than holmes (3rd AND 5th - 3rd was conditional and could have been a 2nd, i think?)... we shouldn't necessarily infer based on that, though, that it reflects some sense of how jets view their relative intrinsic value... it instead could speak to holmes being more troubled, and 5th all the market could bear...
if edwards doesn't look good next year and holmes looks great, i could easily see jets jettisoning edwards and going with holmes & cotchery going forward...
what if edwards and holmes both look very good? sanchez was a rookie and they kind of reigned him in last year... with edwards, holmes, cotchery and keller - maybe leon washington (if he isn't in holmes trade?)...
if edwards fulfills his potential, he could be dominant (he has a lot of drops, but so has TO)... WITH holmes (and cotchery), that would seem to give them one of the best WR trios in the league (obviously not if edwards doesn't)...
one reason i'm not certain it is automatic the jets will want to bank on holmes as lead in 2011, and will be so quick to part with edwards... is related to a reason that might give pause to the jets (or any team) in counting on holmes... can he be counted on (PIT seemed to have grave doubts, though admittedly it might have been PR move to distance themselves from his embarassing off-field behavior, and maybe they wanted to get what they could now, if he wasn't in their plans going forward - but that latter, could have been at least in part related to said grave doubts whether he could be counted on stay out of trouble)? that is a BIG question mark. he is one puff of wacky tobacky away from a year-long vacation, courtesy of the substance program...
how did other teams view him, THIS year... he could only command a 5th, when his actual value would have been far higher absent his massive character and off-field concerns (edwards has had issues, but to my knowledge he isn't in the program?)... supposedly the jets were burning up the phone, and approached a lot of teams except for, presumably, the AFC north rivals, yet a 5th was the best they could secure...
will all the doubts evaporate in one year? i doubt it... he could always be a ticking time bomb... they could write into contract financial protection if he gets into trouble, but they can't protect against not having him for a year... so again, i'm not certain holmes is clearly the WR1 of the future, and edwards is destined to be with another team in 2011...
acquiring holmes could reflect more on wanting to upgrade cotchery (he certainly is that, viewed from that lens), not edwards...
a lot is still to unfold, play out and be determined THIS season... unless holmes has a problem gaining chemistry and rapport with sanchez, he is capable of a good season... but a lot is riding on edwards doing better ON the field, which is possible (remember, he didn't have an off-season to learn playbook, sanchez was a rookie on a team that had best running attack in the NFL - would holmes have has 1,200+ yards LAST year, with sanchez instead of roethlisberger... and if he had been traded IN-SEASON?)... also, on the jets impressions of the risk holmes poses OFF the field.
IF edwards or holmes are destined to be moved by 2011, cotchery could easily be back to WR2...
* it is a contract year for edwards, but holmes as well...
edwards and holmes have to be the starters in two WR sets, and cotchery in slot in three WR sets (this year - of course, cotchery would start during a four game holmes suspension)...
as far as the future of cotchery, it is important to discuss what is the future role of edwards and holmes...
do we know they can't all co-exist?
that would be highly unlikely under salary constraints, but what if 2011 and beyond is in the context of a post-cap landscape...
holmes has had a better career than edwards, but arguably no season as good edwards career year with 16 TDs...
holmes was across from ward, edwards hasn't had somebody as good as ward (or holmes, for that matter) across from him... cotchery is solid, but not a star...
if edwards can be more consistent, he does have the pedigree and physical ability to be outstanding...
edwards did cost more than holmes (3rd AND 5th - 3rd was conditional and could have been a 2nd, i think?)... we shouldn't necessarily infer based on that, though, that it reflects some sense of how jets view their relative intrinsic value... it instead could speak to holmes being more troubled, and 5th all the market could bear...
if edwards doesn't look good next year and holmes looks great, i could easily see jets jettisoning edwards and going with holmes & cotchery going forward...
what if edwards and holmes both look very good? sanchez was a rookie and they kind of reigned him in last year... with edwards, holmes, cotchery and keller - maybe leon washington (if he isn't in holmes trade?)...
if edwards fulfills his potential, he could be dominant (he has a lot of drops, but so has TO)... WITH holmes (and cotchery), that would seem to give them one of the best WR trios in the league (obviously not if edwards doesn't)...
one reason i'm not certain it is automatic the jets will want to bank on holmes as lead in 2011, and will be so quick to part with edwards... is related to a reason that might give pause to the jets (or any team) in counting on holmes... can he be counted on (PIT seemed to have grave doubts, though admittedly it might have been PR move to distance themselves from his embarassing off-field behavior, and maybe they wanted to get what they could now, if he wasn't in their plans going forward - but that latter, could have been at least in part related to said grave doubts whether he could be counted on stay out of trouble)? that is a BIG question mark. he is one puff of wacky tobacky away from a year-long vacation, courtesy of the substance program...
how did other teams view him, THIS year... he could only command a 5th, when his actual value would have been far higher absent his massive character and off-field concerns (edwards has had issues, but to my knowledge he isn't in the program?)... supposedly the jets were burning up the phone, and approached a lot of teams except for, presumably, the AFC north rivals, yet a 5th was the best they could secure...
will all the doubts evaporate in one year? i doubt it... he could always be a ticking time bomb... they could write into contract financial protection if he gets into trouble, but they can't protect against not having him for a year... so again, i'm not certain holmes is clearly the WR1 of the future, and edwards is destined to be with another team in 2011...
acquiring holmes could reflect more on wanting to upgrade cotchery (he certainly is that, viewed from that lens), not edwards...
a lot is still to unfold, play out and be determined THIS season... unless holmes has a problem gaining chemistry and rapport with sanchez, he is capable of a good season... but a lot is riding on edwards doing better ON the field, which is possible (remember, he didn't have an off-season to learn playbook, sanchez was a rookie on a team that had best running attack in the NFL - would holmes have has 1,200+ yards LAST year, with sanchez instead of roethlisberger... and if he had been traded IN-SEASON?)... also, on the jets impressions of the risk holmes poses OFF the field.
IF edwards or holmes are destined to be moved by 2011, cotchery could easily be back to WR2...
* it is a contract year for edwards, but holmes as well...
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It would have been even funnier if Holmes was number 87.
