timschochet
Footballguy
OK since my sarcastic and angry posts regarding the Patriots have all been removed, I thought it was time for a more serious look about whether this team will truly achieve the goals that the media seems to be setting for them. There are four goals that are talked about on a regular basis in the past few weeks:
1. Winning the Superbowl
2. Going 16-0
3. Tom Brady breaking the single season TD record.
4. The 2007 Patriots being considered the greatest NFL football team of all time.
WINNING THE SUPERBOWL
It's reasonable to assume that the Pats will have home field advantage. Indy also has a decent chance at this, maybe 35-40%, if they continue to play on a high level. Pittsburgh with 2 losses already might have a 10% chance, and Jacksonville we'll know more about tonight, but give them a 10% chance as well. No other AFC team has even a remote chance at home field.
So, two possibilities:
1. NE Gets home field (60%). The way things stack up now (and I don't see it changing very much), The Pats would probably host San Diego. If so, this would be a much better Charger team than the one that faced them in September, and I anticipate a closer struggle. However, I give NEa 75% chance to win this game. Then the Pats would face the winner of Indy vs. Pitt, which is most likely Indy (60-40%). At home, the Pats should win this game. (65%). Then, in the Superbowl, NE would face the Cowboys, Giants, or Redskins (who else?) and this would not be much of a contest, IMO. If they get there, I give 80% chance to win.
2. Indy gets home field. Then the Pats would most likely have to face Pittsburgh in round 1- give them a 70% chance to win, much as I wish it were not so. NE would then travel to RCA, and I eould still favor them over the Colts, but barely (55-45%).
So, in conclusion, it seems more than likely the Pats WILL win the Superbowl this year, but if they don't win home field, its more problematic.
GOING 16-0
A lot of this depends on the home field advantage issue. So long as Indy continues to win, the pressure is on NE to do so as well. Three years ago, the Steelers finished 15-1 and the Pats 14-2 aqnd neither team could rest players until the very last game of the season. That might happen again this year with Indy and NE. If Indy falls off (loses a couple of games) but NE keeps winning and clenches early, then the question becomes how much does 16-0 mean to Belichick? I'm guessing it means a lot, but this is only surmise on my part.
Soes this schedule prevent 16-0? Very hard to predict. If history is any lesson when it comes to studying great teams, the Pats will blow out their toughest remaining opponents (Indy and Pitt) but will struggle against some easier percieved opponents. Yet, this formula suggests they should have struggled against Miami, and they were dominant. This suggests they are motivated beyond belief. Will this motivation last the rest of the way?
Given the sheer talent of players in the NFL, it seems more unlikely than likely that the Pats will go undefeated, at least on paper. Yet when I watch them, I believe it will happen. I give it 50-50.
TOM BRADY BREAKING THE SINGLE SEASON TD RECORD
There are only two things that will stop this: injury (unlikely) or cold weather. The last 6 game of the year for NE are all potentially cold weather games. Still, if Brady is close to this record by then (and it's likely that he will be, ) you have to like his chances. I give it 70%
ONE OF THE GREATEST TEAMS OF ALL TIME?
There are two ways to achieve this goal. First, if the Pats go 16-0 AND win the SB, they will be considered this no matter how close the scores are. However, if NE loses even ONE game in the regular season, then they have to blow out their playoff opponents ala the 85 Bears and the 89 49ers. If they do this, they will still be considered perhaps the greatest team of all time. If, however, they go 15-1 or 14-2 and have at least one close game in the playoffs, they will be thought of as a great team, but not the greatest team.
Given I hate the Pats and want them to lose every game, this has been a difficult post for me to write.
1. Winning the Superbowl
2. Going 16-0
3. Tom Brady breaking the single season TD record.
4. The 2007 Patriots being considered the greatest NFL football team of all time.
WINNING THE SUPERBOWL
It's reasonable to assume that the Pats will have home field advantage. Indy also has a decent chance at this, maybe 35-40%, if they continue to play on a high level. Pittsburgh with 2 losses already might have a 10% chance, and Jacksonville we'll know more about tonight, but give them a 10% chance as well. No other AFC team has even a remote chance at home field.
So, two possibilities:
1. NE Gets home field (60%). The way things stack up now (and I don't see it changing very much), The Pats would probably host San Diego. If so, this would be a much better Charger team than the one that faced them in September, and I anticipate a closer struggle. However, I give NEa 75% chance to win this game. Then the Pats would face the winner of Indy vs. Pitt, which is most likely Indy (60-40%). At home, the Pats should win this game. (65%). Then, in the Superbowl, NE would face the Cowboys, Giants, or Redskins (who else?) and this would not be much of a contest, IMO. If they get there, I give 80% chance to win.
2. Indy gets home field. Then the Pats would most likely have to face Pittsburgh in round 1- give them a 70% chance to win, much as I wish it were not so. NE would then travel to RCA, and I eould still favor them over the Colts, but barely (55-45%).
So, in conclusion, it seems more than likely the Pats WILL win the Superbowl this year, but if they don't win home field, its more problematic.
GOING 16-0
A lot of this depends on the home field advantage issue. So long as Indy continues to win, the pressure is on NE to do so as well. Three years ago, the Steelers finished 15-1 and the Pats 14-2 aqnd neither team could rest players until the very last game of the season. That might happen again this year with Indy and NE. If Indy falls off (loses a couple of games) but NE keeps winning and clenches early, then the question becomes how much does 16-0 mean to Belichick? I'm guessing it means a lot, but this is only surmise on my part.
Soes this schedule prevent 16-0? Very hard to predict. If history is any lesson when it comes to studying great teams, the Pats will blow out their toughest remaining opponents (Indy and Pitt) but will struggle against some easier percieved opponents. Yet, this formula suggests they should have struggled against Miami, and they were dominant. This suggests they are motivated beyond belief. Will this motivation last the rest of the way?
Given the sheer talent of players in the NFL, it seems more unlikely than likely that the Pats will go undefeated, at least on paper. Yet when I watch them, I believe it will happen. I give it 50-50.
TOM BRADY BREAKING THE SINGLE SEASON TD RECORD
There are only two things that will stop this: injury (unlikely) or cold weather. The last 6 game of the year for NE are all potentially cold weather games. Still, if Brady is close to this record by then (and it's likely that he will be, ) you have to like his chances. I give it 70%
ONE OF THE GREATEST TEAMS OF ALL TIME?
There are two ways to achieve this goal. First, if the Pats go 16-0 AND win the SB, they will be considered this no matter how close the scores are. However, if NE loses even ONE game in the regular season, then they have to blow out their playoff opponents ala the 85 Bears and the 89 49ers. If they do this, they will still be considered perhaps the greatest team of all time. If, however, they go 15-1 or 14-2 and have at least one close game in the playoffs, they will be thought of as a great team, but not the greatest team.
Given I hate the Pats and want them to lose every game, this has been a difficult post for me to write.