The guy in first place in my league... (1 Viewer)

[Steve Dallas]

His roster:

PLAYER POS NFL OPP BYE INJ STATUS TIE

Jon Kitna QB DET vs BUF 8 - Starter

LaMont Jordan RB OAK @ DEN 3 - Starter

Willie Parker RB PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter

Bryant Johnson WR ARI vs CHI 9 - Starter

Cedrick Wilson WR PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter

Chris Chambers WR MIA @ NYJ 8 - Starter

L.J. Smith TE PHI @ NOR 9 P Starter

Desmond Clark TE CHI @ ARI 7 Q Starter

Nate Kaeding K SDG @ SFO 3 - Starter

Buffalo Bills Def/ST BUF @ DET 8 - Starter

Kurt Warner QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve

Matt Leinart QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve

Wali Lundy RB HOU @ DAL 5 - Reserve

Najeh Davenport RB PIT vs KAN 4 P Reserve

Fred Taylor RB JAC <bye> 6 - Reserve

Noah Herron RB GNB <bye> 6 - Reserve

Reggie Wayne WR IND <bye> 6 - Reserve

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Def/ST TAM vs CIN 4 - Reserve

Roy Williams WR DET vs BUF 8 T IR

Donte' Stallworth WR PHI @ NOR 9 D IR

Jon Kitna is the only player he has in the Top 40. He's 4-1, and beat me by 0.1 pt this past week. He's also my little bro, so that hurts extra bad.

FWIW, it's a 12-owner, 20-man roster, Keep 2 PPR league using WCOFF rules.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Awesome....tell me more!!

 

[Steve Dallas]

Awesome....tell me more!!

Why did you take the time to post in here then? Way to waste your own time, guy!

 

[Ned]

extra bad

 

[Steve Dallas]

extra bad

Admittedly.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Awesome....tell me more!!

Why did you take the time to post in here then? Way to waste your own time, guy!

You are wasting bandwidth cause people don't care about your league.

 

[Steve Dallas]

Awesome....tell me more!!

Why did you take the time to post in here then? Way to waste your own time, guy!

You are wasting bandwidth cause people don't care about your league.

You obviously care enough to post twice.

 

[Magnus_CA]

Of course he's in 1st place. He's got Lundy!

 

[Steve Dallas]

Of course he's in 1st place. He's got Lundy!

I just thought it was interesting and shows just how powerful the element of luck is in fantasy football.

 

[Raiders Fan]

Of course he's in 1st place. He's got Lundy!

I just thought it was interesting and shows just how powerful the element of luck is in fantasy football.

Most of the people who play fantasy football already realize it's mostly luck.. Any given week you can take the worst team and match them up against you I bet you have a winning record..

 

[fsufan]

His rosterLAYER POS NFL OPP BYE INJ STATUS TIEJon Kitna QB DET vs BUF 8 - Starter LaMont Jordan RB OAK @ DEN 3 - Starter Willie Parker RB PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter Bryant Johnson WR ARI vs CHI 9 - Starter Cedrick Wilson WR PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter Chris Chambers WR MIA @ NYJ 8 - Starter L.J. Smith TE PHI @ NOR 9 P Starter Desmond Clark TE CHI @ ARI 7 Q Starter Nate Kaeding K SDG @ SFO 3 - Starter Buffalo Bills Def/ST BUF @ DET 8 - Starter Kurt Warner QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve Matt Leinart QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve Wali Lundy RB HOU @ DAL 5 - Reserve Najeh Davenport RB PIT vs KAN 4 P Reserve Fred Taylor RB JAC <bye> 6 - Reserve Noah Herron RB GNB <bye> 6 - Reserve Reggie Wayne WR IND <bye> 6 - Reserve Tampa Bay Buccaneers Def/ST TAM vs CIN 4 - Reserve Roy Williams WR DET vs BUF 8 T IR Donte' Stallworth WR PHI @ NOR 9 D IR Jon Kitna is the only player he has in the Top 40. He's 4-1, and beat me by 0.1 pt this past week. He's also my little bro, so that hurts extra bad.FWIW, it's a 12-owner, 20-man roster, Keep 2 PPR league using WCOFF rules.

more proof of how much luck FF is

 

[ooofffaaa]

Just proves you're only as good as the worst player on your team.

 

[Team Legacy]

His rosterLAYER POS NFL OPP BYE INJ STATUS TIEJon Kitna QB DET vs BUF 8 - Starter LaMont Jordan RB OAK @ DEN 3 - Starter Willie Parker RB PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter Bryant Johnson WR ARI vs CHI 9 - Starter Cedrick Wilson WR PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter Chris Chambers WR MIA @ NYJ 8 - Starter L.J. Smith TE PHI @ NOR 9 P Starter Desmond Clark TE CHI @ ARI 7 Q Starter Nate Kaeding K SDG @ SFO 3 - Starter Buffalo Bills Def/ST BUF @ DET 8 - Starter Kurt Warner QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve Matt Leinart QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve Wali Lundy RB HOU @ DAL 5 - Reserve Najeh Davenport RB PIT vs KAN 4 P Reserve Fred Taylor RB JAC <bye> 6 - Reserve Noah Herron RB GNB <bye> 6 - Reserve Reggie Wayne WR IND <bye> 6 - Reserve Tampa Bay Buccaneers Def/ST TAM vs CIN 4 - Reserve Roy Williams WR DET vs BUF 8 T IR Donte' Stallworth WR PHI @ NOR 9 D IR Jon Kitna is the only player he has in the Top 40. He's 4-1, and beat me by 0.1 pt this past week. He's also my little bro, so that hurts extra bad.FWIW, it's a 12-owner, 20-man roster, Keep 2 PPR league using WCOFF rules.

LUCK has nothing to do with this squad. 1st round - Lamont Jordan2nd round - Willie Parker3rd round - Chris Chambers4th round - Reggie Wayne 5th round - Roy Williams6th round - Fred Taylor While several of these guys haven't paid off yet, he had a draft FULL of value.You got beat, get over it, don't try to blame it on luck.

 

[CalBear]

Luck is a factor in fantasy football, sure. Right now in my main league, the top 3 teams in scoring have a combined record of 6-9. But as with any game of chance, the random factors even out over time; some will even out of the course of a season, and others will only even out over the course of many seasons, due to the small sample sizes involved.

In the same league, over the past five years, me and the one other guy I would consider a top-notch player have the two best records and 3 Super Bowl wins between us. It's all about having a slightly higher Expected Value; in the long run you win by consistently making good decisions, not by drawing the card you need on the river.

 

[EdwardCat]

Awesome....tell me more!!

Why did you take the time to post in here then? Way to waste your own time, guy!

You are wasting bandwidth cause people don't care about your league.

I think it is interesting stuff. I'm sorry you don't care about anyone else.

 

[Byron_nyc]

You know, in my most competitive league, we are seeing the same thing. The guy with the biggest point total is 1-4. There's been a lot of discussion about it and what we've come to is that this year there is just more parity than ever. There has definitely been more turnover in the top players, especially in the WRs. (Greg Jennings? Furrey?) I just think this year has had more volatility in projecting players than other years. Nobody knows anything. And I think that reflects the league. More players are emerging this year than ever before, in my memory.

 

[Steve Dallas]

You know, in my most competitive league, we are seeing the same thing. The guy with the biggest point total is 1-4. There's been a lot of discussion about it and what we've come to is that this year there is just more parity than ever. There has definitely been more turnover in the top players, especially in the WRs. (Greg Jennings? Furrey?) I just think this year has had more volatility in projecting players than other years. Nobody knows anything. And I think that reflects the league. More players are emerging this year than ever before, in my memory.

Yeah, pretty much spot on.

 

[shuke]

THANKS FOR THE UPDATE!

 

[Slinger]

THANKS FOR THE UPDATE!

 

[sinatravolta]

His rosterLAYER POS NFL OPP BYE INJ STATUS TIEJon Kitna QB DET vs BUF 8 - Starter LaMont Jordan RB OAK @ DEN 3 - Starter Willie Parker RB PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter Bryant Johnson WR ARI vs CHI 9 - Starter Cedrick Wilson WR PIT vs KAN 4 - Starter Chris Chambers WR MIA @ NYJ 8 - Starter L.J. Smith TE PHI @ NOR 9 P Starter Desmond Clark TE CHI @ ARI 7 Q Starter Nate Kaeding K SDG @ SFO 3 - Starter Buffalo Bills Def/ST BUF @ DET 8 - Starter Kurt Warner QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve Matt Leinart QB ARI vs CHI 9 - Reserve Wali Lundy RB HOU @ DAL 5 - Reserve Najeh Davenport RB PIT vs KAN 4 P Reserve Fred Taylor RB JAC <bye> 6 - Reserve Noah Herron RB GNB <bye> 6 - Reserve Reggie Wayne WR IND <bye> 6 - Reserve Tampa Bay Buccaneers Def/ST TAM vs CIN 4 - Reserve Roy Williams WR DET vs BUF 8 T IR Donte' Stallworth WR PHI @ NOR 9 D IR Jon Kitna is the only player he has in the Top 40. He's 4-1, and beat me by 0.1 pt this past week. He's also my little bro, so that hurts extra bad.FWIW, it's a 12-owner, 20-man roster, Keep 2 PPR league using WCOFF rules.

LUCK has nothing to do with this squad. 1st round - Lamont Jordan2nd round - Willie Parker3rd round - Chris Chambers4th round - Reggie Wayne 5th round - Roy Williams6th round - Fred Taylor While several of these guys haven't paid off yet, he had a draft FULL of value.You got beat, get over it, don't try to blame it on luck.

I agree. Don't blame it on parity or luck. This guy drafted pretty well, and although his first round pick didn't pan out - he's still doing well. Yes - the game has a solid amount of luck - but this isn't a particularly bad team or a bad draft. With 12 teams - he did extremely well to get those guys with his first 6 picks (or he traded for some of them somewhere along the way - either way - job well done). Besides - any FGB knows looking at the top 40 in points scored is not the way to determine who's going to win. You only start one QB. I thought you were talking about the top 40 in the Top 250 Forward - and that would be more surprising if it were true. But this guy has 4 in last weeks' top 40 (Parker, Wayne, Chambers, Taylor) and Roy Williams is 41 and Jordan is 49 and Stallworth is 55 and LJ Smith is 60. So unless your point is you can win without having a top 10 player (which is kind of obvious) - you have no real point.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Luck is a factor in fantasy football, sure. Right now in my main league, the top 3 teams in scoring have a combined record of 6-9. But as with any game of chance, the random factors even out over time; some will even out of the course of a season, and others will only even out over the course of many seasons, due to the small sample sizes involved.In the same league, over the past five years, me and the one other guy I would consider a top-notch player have the two best records and 3 Super Bowl wins between us. It's all about having a slightly higher Expected Value; in the long run you win by consistently making good decisions, not by drawing the card you need on the river.

Thread hijack (not that it was much of a thread):The random factor cannot out over time if it's a season-long item-- namely, the schedule. Taken as a whole, it's the biggest piece of luck in the game. You can take the #1 team in the league, play with the schedule, and keep them out of the playoffs. You can also take a team with a losing record, play with the schedule, and make them a post-season team. That's a huge element of luck that cannot be altered. H2H leagues are very fun, but total points gives you the most accurate picture of who had the best team in a fantasy football league. In that kind of league, you are right about random factors evening out over the course of a season. For the most part, anyway.Another reason why some teams do well every year is because some other teams do poorly every year. In the NFL, bad GMs and coaches lose their jobs. In a fantasy league, they play as long as they have the cash and a few buddies in the league. Some guys in our league very rarely make the playoffs, but they have a great time and enjoy the camaraderie. They normally have the lowest points and only the schedule can rescue them or make them look respectable. Their existence and decisions give other teams a better chance to succeed.

 

[CalBear]

The random factor cannot out over time if it's a season-long item-- namely, the schedule. Taken as a whole, it's the biggest piece of luck in the game. You can take the #1 team in the league, play with the schedule, and keep them out of the playoffs. You can also take a team with a losing record, play with the schedule, and make them a post-season team. That's a huge element of luck that cannot be altered. H2H leagues are very fun, but total points gives you the most accurate picture of who had the best team in a fantasy football league. In that kind of league, you are right about random factors evening out over the course of a season. For the most part, anyway.

It just comes down to your expected return. Having a positive expected return (as an above-average fantasy player should) doesn't mean that you'll win your league this year; it means that, over time, you'll win more often than the average, and make money. It is entirely possible to have the best team and not win, just like it's possible to have the best hand and not win at hold 'em. That doesn't mean that luck is the dominant factor.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

The random factor cannot out over time if it's a season-long item-- namely, the schedule. Taken as a whole, it's the biggest piece of luck in the game. You can take the #1 team in the league, play with the schedule, and keep them out of the playoffs. You can also take a team with a losing record, play with the schedule, and make them a post-season team. That's a huge element of luck that cannot be altered. H2H leagues are very fun, but total points gives you the most accurate picture of who had the best team in a fantasy football league. In that kind of league, you are right about random factors evening out over the course of a season. For the most part, anyway.

It just comes down to your expected return. Having a positive expected return (as an above-average fantasy player should) doesn't mean that you'll win your league this year; it means that, over time, you'll win more often than the average, and make money. It is entirely possible to have the best team and not win, just like it's possible to have the best hand and not win at hold 'em. That doesn't mean that luck is the dominant factor.

I see what you're saying about making money and finishing higher over time. But to be honest, I couldn't care less about that. You either win it all or you don't. I don't feel good about making the playoffs, making money but seeing someone else take the title. So while you might be right about the winning more than average, you're still held back by the luck factor of the schedule. You have to overcome it. And I think that the schedule has everything to do with winning or losing, and the schedule is nothing but luck. It's created before the season starts. And in poker, if you have the best hand but take a bad beat...the other guy got lucky. Luck absolutely was the dominant factor. You also have more control in poker regarding minimizing your losses. You can't "muck" the fantasy schedule and hope for a better matchup in a new shuffle. If poker players got just one hand (the schedule) and had to play it to the best of their ability...luck would pretty much detemrine how well they fared. They could exert some control by bluffing or muscling some players out, but in the end they get one hand and they play it. Maybe I'm not explaining it right, but I see the schedule as the number one element of luck in detemrining a team's success.