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Since Im pretty sure you have no plans on posting your projections....any chance you can PM me your projections?I do detailed projections and I pretty much kick everybody's ###.
Creating detailed projections is an essential part of completely understanding each players factors IMHO. If one disagrees, they should jump in a league with me and see what happens.
There's like 4 or 5 people with that avatar. It's very confusing.
IN
Creating detailed projections is an essential part of completely understanding each players factors IMHO. If one disagrees, they should jump in a league with me and see what happens.
I notice that your last place finish in No Mercy Grubs isn't in your sig. I guess if you enter enough leagues, you'll have at least a few good results to post there.Hey, don't lump me in with Harrier. I actually contribute.EDIT to add: And WTF? Im worse than LHUCKS now? Are we assuming the words "Pac" and "10" haven't been mentioned?
whose, LHUCKS?OMG...was that out of his book?...#$#$ing priceless!!
kill yourself.
My point is that projections from FBG have been inaccurate, despite the time and effort put into them. Drafting completely off projections are of little use because we can't see the future. I don't see how this article is a veiled shot at FBG, and if they took it that way, then I apologize. I certainly didn't intend it to be. I like FBG. I post and lurk (mainly lurk) here year round (my only message board, btw). I've subscribed the past three years. I think they do as good a job as you can do with projections. I noted that I don't have a comparison with other sites projections and that the methodology that I may have used to determine what is accurate and inaccurate could be up for debate.The analysis and moreso its conclusions are totally flawed...it annoyed me because it's totally misleading in terms of showing people how to become better at ff. It's a veiled shot at FBG...and I just get sick of the shots, especially when they lack the necessary substance. Almost every big time ff'er I know frequents this site, there's a reason for that and it's not because projectsions in general have a low percentage of accuracy...which is something every statistician would have told you before this study, in addition to anyone who has experience with projections.MODESTY LEAGUE RANKINGS
Team 1 ................. 10-3
Team 2 ................... 8-5
Team 3 ................... 7-6
Team 4 ................... 7-6
Team 5 ................... 7-6
Team LHUCKS ....... 0-13
I think the major flaw in this article is the lack of alternatives (both in the analysis and in final direction). Proper analysis should include other projections and even other rankings (including ADP). If FBG projections are accurate at a 25% rate, that would seem very bad. However, if other projections and rankings were accurate to 15%, then the FBG projections are suddenly quite accurate in comparison.The final advice of drafting who you want and having fun seems a bit off as well. Having fun is cool, but there must be some form of ranking or projections in order to determine who you want. The article doesn't address how to obtain that ranking or projection.
This kind of feedback is one of the reasons that I place FBGs above the rest. Knowing where you can improve is invaluable
But back to the topic. It would certainly be interesting to see the percentage success using ADP. At least then we could establish whether FBGs performed above or below the level obtained by simply drafting according to ADP. If some rival sites could be studied, that would be interesting too. It would be a huge undertaking though.You are one of the only posters on here that consistently pimps yourself. I've won my league, most of which belong to this site, 5 out of 7 years now. I don't put it in my sig, and brag about how much I'll kick your ###. But of course, my league is full of fish you'll say....cuz you're the best.The analysis and moreso its conclusions are totally flawed...it annoyed me because it's totally misleading in terms of showing people how to become better at ff.MODESTY LEAGUE RANKINGS
Team 1 ................. 10-3
Team 2 ................... 8-5
Team 3 ................... 7-6
Team 4 ................... 7-6
Team 5 ................... 7-6
Team LHUCKS ....... 0-13
It gets old, but just ignore it. Lhucks does put out some nice information, but he does love himself.
I am glad you posted it. It's good to get a conversation going, especially if it leads to examining things from a slightly different perspective. My comments were certainly not an attack or anything. I had no idea that projections were so far away from the actual results. I don't live or die by them when I draft, but it shows how little weight they deserve. The important thing is to rank the positions as correctly as possible. You certainly didn't waste your time by doing this study or posting the article.
The great thing about FBG is the diversity and overall quality of product. I don't subscribe for the projections. I would subscribe for nothing more than the Draft Dominator and the e-mail updates. But throw in several thousand articles and a LOT of expert opinions and you have a no-brainer subscription service.However, I think you should be doing this kind of projections accuracy analysis yourself. Most people don't want to or don't have the time to do their own projections, and they will rely on someone else's. Doing a self-analysis would either let you promote yourself that much more because your projections rock, or it would define a weakness in your projections that you can then tighten up. There is at least one other site that does track and report on its accuracy, and this greatly raises my image of them. It makes others that do not, look as though they are afraid to do so.
