The Initial Bloom 100 (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

but for me ranking players and drafting players are different. The 18th ranked player does not mean that he should be the 18th drafted player, largely because of the type issues that you suggest. When I read rankings of players, I really only want to know who is the next best player, not who I should draft 18.

I agree, with qualifiers. The approach should probably be stated up front. I looked at the Rookie 100 last year as a draft guide, and I think Sig's focus, to his credit, has always been on fantasy. The low ranking of solid DEs designates this list as a fantasy draft guide. I'm sure we can all agree Adams and Anderson belong in the top 20 if this is based on talent alone. I get myself confused because my being an NFL fan first makes your preference, ranked by talent, generally where my head is and why I appreciate Bloom having his head permanently in fantasy land. IF that makes sense, then I would not rank a TE in this draft higher than most of this top 50, and I base that on talent and as a draft guide. I think I would slip a couple into the top 50, and another couple into the next 50 and just not bother with the rest.

The Bloom 100, from Post 1:

The dust has finally settled in my head and I have watched a good cross section of the draft class in person over the last three weeks. I really debated a lot of these rankings and as you all know, the combine and pro days factor in, and most importantly, the draft. The rankings on May 1 will be very different than these, keep that in mind. If I rebuilt these rankings from scratch right now, they would probably be different. Im sure once this is posted I'll read the rankings and start re-debating them from a different point of view, and some of you will bring some persuasive arguments as to why I am wrong about someone. I reserve the right to change these at any moment. This is all still very fluid in my mind, but this is a snapshot of where I am at right now, and meant to only be a very very general guide at this early stage. I did not have a chance to thoroughly proofread this, so forgive any spelling, position, team errors. I'll be working on the commentary for these during the rest of the week. Remember that this reflects both my player evaluation and general comparative evaluation of position value in full IDP leagues. These do not reflect a particular scoring system, they are more generic, but the commentary will address some values in specific systems.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

On the TEs:

Greg Olsen - He's ahead of Miller because his value is mainly as a receiver, which we fantasy types have to love. He's not a supremely talented receiver, but he will be drafted for his receiving skills. That means that the team that takes him will envision using him in the passing game. If he was more talented, he might crack that group of semi-interesting RBs ahead of him, but the fact that his upside is likely TE10-12 keeps him below them for now.

Zach Miller - The better NFL TE because he's more of a two-way guy. The Heath Miller comparison is nice, but remember that Heath hasnt really blossomed a fantasy TE, and may never with all this talk of 4 WR sets (and the Steelers have the waterbugs to do it well). Miller's team will make more of a difference on his post draft ranking than Olsen's.

Maybe I have them a bit high because all the dynasty leagues I play in are TE premium and that has slightly brainwashed me. Adjust accordingly if your leagues are not TE premium.

 

[Warpig]

Bloom,

Can I get some more info from you on this Jared Zabransky kid? When I've watched what little of him I have, he seemed to have a strong arm and played like a good competitor. What is the bones on this guy? Is he maybe a little immature? Sporadic arm?

 

[NDMatt]

Since you guys have compared rookies vs. current players at some positions...

How would the top few RBs of this class rank in comparison to guys like Ronnie Brown and/or Maroney?

(echoing everyone else....great work Bloom)

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Since you guys have compared rookies vs. current players at some positions...How would the top few RBs of this class rank in comparison to guys like Ronnie Brown and/or Maroney?(echoing everyone else....great work Bloom)

Comparing them at the same point in their careers:AD above both. Lynch below Brown, above Maroney.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Great stuff per usual. Intrigued by the Rice ranking. As I think you have mentioned, this is a dynasty ranking so there is some longer term component to your thoughts. My question is about how much is year 1-2 and how much is year 3-5 for you? I ask because it seems to me that Rice is the least "ready" of the top 6 WRs as the youngest. I'm a big fan of trying to get some value out of looking at a player's ranking out of high school to see where they have grown (or not) in college and Rice has by far the lowest ranking coming into college of those 6 at a 3 star and 55th ranked WR in 2004 (Bowe was a 4 star, 21st rank in 2003, which is the next lowest).

I know that Rice has a ton of upside, but a younger WR who wasn't highly ranked coming into college sounds like a recipe for waiting several years for that upside to emerge. Do you agree and how do you balance the NFL-ready versus the Upside?

Thanks man!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Great stuff per usual. Intrigued by the Rice ranking. As I think you have mentioned, this is a dynasty ranking so there is some longer term component to your thoughts. My question is about how much is year 1-2 and how much is year 3-5 for you? I ask because it seems to me that Rice is the least "ready" of the top 6 WRs as the youngest. I'm a big fan of trying to get some value out of looking at a player's ranking out of high school to see where they have grown (or not) in college and Rice has by far the lowest ranking coming into college of those 6 at a 3 star and 55th ranked WR in 2004 (Bowe was a 4 star, 21st rank in 2003, which is the next lowest). I know that Rice has a ton of upside, but a younger WR who wasn't highly ranked coming into college sounds like a recipe for waiting several years for that upside to emerge. Do you agree and how do you balance the NFL-ready versus the Upside?Thanks man!

Rice is an exception. Yes, he's probably the farthest from NFL ready of the top 6 WRs. Still, I feel his upside is 2nd only to Calvin, and that's why he ranks so high. For just about any WR, I chalk up years 1 and 2 while ranking them pre-draft. it's impossible to project what their opportunity will be at this point. Expect to wait until at least year 2 to see good consistent production from any of these guys. Dynasty also requires patience. I would rather be certain a guy is going to hit and wait a few years (*cough* Michael Turner *cough* ) than take a guy with immediate opportunity who I feel less sure about. Of course, the immediate opportunity guy is way more tradeable, so maybe thats an argument to take them and cash them in, but when it comes down it, I draft the guys that I feel most certain will hit, regardless of the immediate returns.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Great stuff per usual. Intrigued by the Rice ranking. As I think you have mentioned, this is a dynasty ranking so there is some longer term component to your thoughts. My question is about how much is year 1-2 and how much is year 3-5 for you? I ask because it seems to me that Rice is the least "ready" of the top 6 WRs as the youngest. I'm a big fan of trying to get some value out of looking at a player's ranking out of high school to see where they have grown (or not) in college and Rice has by far the lowest ranking coming into college of those 6 at a 3 star and 55th ranked WR in 2004 (Bowe was a 4 star, 21st rank in 2003, which is the next lowest). I know that Rice has a ton of upside, but a younger WR who wasn't highly ranked coming into college sounds like a recipe for waiting several years for that upside to emerge. Do you agree and how do you balance the NFL-ready versus the Upside?Thanks man!

Rice is an exception. Yes, he's probably the farthest from NFL ready of the top 6 WRs. Still, I feel his upside is 2nd only to Calvin, and that's why he ranks so high. For just about any WR, I chalk up years 1 and 2 while ranking them pre-draft. it's impossible to project what their opportunity will be at this point. Expect to wait until at least year 2 to see good consistent production from any of these guys. Dynasty also requires patience. I would rather be certain a guy is going to hit and wait a few years (*cough* Michael Turner *cough* ) than take a guy with immediate opportunity who I feel less sure about. Of course, the immediate opportunity guy is way more tradeable, so maybe thats an argument to take them and cash them in, but when it comes down it, I draft the guys that I feel most certain will hit, regardless of the immediate returns.

Thanks Bloom! Great points.

 

[lord_helmet]

Great stuff per usual. Intrigued by the Rice ranking. As I think you have mentioned, this is a dynasty ranking so there is some longer term component to your thoughts. My question is about how much is year 1-2 and how much is year 3-5 for you? I ask because it seems to me that Rice is the least "ready" of the top 6 WRs as the youngest. I'm a big fan of trying to get some value out of looking at a player's ranking out of high school to see where they have grown (or not) in college and Rice has by far the lowest ranking coming into college of those 6 at a 3 star and 55th ranked WR in 2004 (Bowe was a 4 star, 21st rank in 2003, which is the next lowest). I know that Rice has a ton of upside, but a younger WR who wasn't highly ranked coming into college sounds like a recipe for waiting several years for that upside to emerge. Do you agree and how do you balance the NFL-ready versus the Upside?Thanks man!

Rice is an exception. Yes, he's probably the farthest from NFL ready of the top 6 WRs. Still, I feel his upside is 2nd only to Calvin, and that's why he ranks so high. For just about any WR, I chalk up years 1 and 2 while ranking them pre-draft. it's impossible to project what their opportunity will be at this point. Expect to wait until at least year 2 to see good consistent production from any of these guys. Dynasty also requires patience. I would rather be certain a guy is going to hit and wait a few years (*cough* Michael Turner *cough* ) than take a guy with immediate opportunity who I feel less sure about. Of course, the immediate opportunity guy is way more tradeable, so maybe thats an argument to take them and cash them in, but when it comes down it, I draft the guys that I feel most certain will hit, regardless of the immediate returns.

But a lot depends on the setup of the league, in contract leagues being patient and score a hit down the line is not a very desirable way to go. If I assign, say rice, to a 4-5 year contract and he doesn't break out untill year 3 that 1 or 2 years of production is not worth the agony of having to let him go after he finally hits.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Great stuff per usual. Intrigued by the Rice ranking. As I think you have mentioned, this is a dynasty ranking so there is some longer term component to your thoughts. My question is about how much is year 1-2 and how much is year 3-5 for you? I ask because it seems to me that Rice is the least "ready" of the top 6 WRs as the youngest. I'm a big fan of trying to get some value out of looking at a player's ranking out of high school to see where they have grown (or not) in college and Rice has by far the lowest ranking coming into college of those 6 at a 3 star and 55th ranked WR in 2004 (Bowe was a 4 star, 21st rank in 2003, which is the next lowest). I know that Rice has a ton of upside, but a younger WR who wasn't highly ranked coming into college sounds like a recipe for waiting several years for that upside to emerge. Do you agree and how do you balance the NFL-ready versus the Upside?Thanks man!

Rice is an exception. Yes, he's probably the farthest from NFL ready of the top 6 WRs. Still, I feel his upside is 2nd only to Calvin, and that's why he ranks so high. For just about any WR, I chalk up years 1 and 2 while ranking them pre-draft. it's impossible to project what their opportunity will be at this point. Expect to wait until at least year 2 to see good consistent production from any of these guys. Dynasty also requires patience. I would rather be certain a guy is going to hit and wait a few years (*cough* Michael Turner *cough* ) than take a guy with immediate opportunity who I feel less sure about. Of course, the immediate opportunity guy is way more tradeable, so maybe thats an argument to take them and cash them in, but when it comes down it, I draft the guys that I feel most certain will hit, regardless of the immediate returns.

But a lot depends on the setup of the league, in contract leagues being patient and score a hit down the line is not a very desirable way to go. If I assign, say rice, to a 4-5 year contract and he doesn't break out untill year 3 that 1 or 2 years of production is not worth the agony of having to let him go after he finally hits.

this is true. all of my work assumes dynasty format, where you own the player for perpetuity.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

bump for new commentary

 

[LHUCKS]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

Start a poll why don't you?

 

[EBF]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I don't think many people are singing his praises. I think he's only ranked high because the rest of the crop is so weak. He probably wouldn't have sniffed my top 5-6 RBs last year. I'll wait to see how he does at the combine and where he's picked before I close the book on him.

 

[Biabreakable]

JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU - He's ahead of the WRs because I'm not sure there's a future top 15 WR in the bunch. Russell has the strength, size, mobility, and arm to be a game breaker in the mold of Culpepper or Roethlisberger, but better.

I can see comparing Russell's mobility to Ben but not Culpepper. He does have a similar size advantage that allows him to hang on to the ball and be somewhat oblivious to pass rushers bringing him down but I don't think he has the speed and agility that Daunte has shown.As a passer a lot has been said about his arm strength but honestly from the little I have seen of him I am not impressed with his mechanics and delivery. Both Ben and Cpep are very accurate passers. Maybe I need to see more film on him but from what I have seen I did not come away from it thinking he was at thier level.So what makes him comparable or even better than these 2 Qbs?Hopefully he has bigger hands than CPep and doesen't like riding motorcycles.

 

[Biabreakable]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

 

[LHUCKS]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

Would you draft him in the first round?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

So what makes him comparable or even better than these 2 Qbs?Hopefully he has bigger hands than CPep and doesen't like riding motorcycles.

Comparable- ability to keep the play alive and hit someone anywhere on the field. You can play perfect defense against them, and they still find a way to beat you.He CAN be better (not saying he will be) because his arm strength is almost unmatched.

 

[Domination]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

Would you draft him in the first round?

Not a chance, and don't know about the 2nd either. I think he benefited from the team he played on, and how good Troy Smith played. I can see him being a total bust.

 

[billyjoe]

Which RBs do you see sneaking into the top 5?

Lets say Bush goes to the Browns, and Kenny Irons to the jets.

Gotta think they'd be on a fast track to start. Like you said you don't see many of those WRs being in the top 15 mold. Seems to be I'd rather gamble on a late 1st, early 2nd round RB landing in a good situation.

(not that the browns/jets are, just using two teams who are looking for RBs)

 

[Biabreakable]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

Would you draft him in the first round?

Bloom has him ranked at 12 so that would be the end of the 1st round in a 12 team league.If he were drafted into a good situation after showing good numbers in the agility drills at the combine then I would consider drafting him at the end of the 1st or early second round.There are other RBs besides the top 2 that I like more than Pittman.I just don't think he is overrated at this point even though I would not have him ranked as high as Bloom does.Bloom has a RB bunch that he places from picks 12-16. I see that as them being second round RB prospects which always carry high value due to the position scarcity and the opportunity to touch the ball so often. That Bloom has the majority of intruiging WR prospects ranked higher than this RB bunch tells me that he doesen't have any of them as clearly better prospects than the others. And also that he doesent consider any of them to be can't miss RB prospects either or else they would be ranked ahead of most of that group of WRs.So by that criteria I don't consider them as being overrated either.It is pre NFL draft rankings focused on Dynasty performance/value. If they were not RBs they probobly wouldn't be ranked as high as they are. The RBs from this bunch or the ones after that go to a good team situation will move up higher in the 1st round I am sure.There are several teams that could make Pittman an interesting enough prospect that I would consider drafting him in the 1st round of a rookie draft.

 

[Biabreakable]

So what makes him comparable or even better than these 2 Qbs?Hopefully he has bigger hands than CPep and doesen't like riding motorcycles.

Comparable- ability to keep the play alive and hit someone anywhere on the field. You can play perfect defense against them, and they still find a way to beat you.He CAN be better (not saying he will be) because his arm strength is almost unmatched.

In regards to his arm strength.I have heard many say that he has an exceptionaly strong arm. The majority is probobly right about that.I just have not seen the evidence. I have not seen him throwing lasers on deep outs or across the field when he rolls out. What I have seen are rainbow arcs that go a long distance but still take awhile to arrive.A lot of Qbs can throw passes like that.Guess I am just looking for more evidence on Russell's uber arm strength. I have not seen anything proving that yet.

 

[LHUCKS]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

Would you draft him in the first round?

Not a chance, and don't know about the 2nd either. I think he benefited from the team he played on, and how good Troy Smith played. I can see him being a total bust.

I agree completely.I see him as a solid third rounder.

 

[Biabreakable]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.

To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.

He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

Would you draft him in the first round?

Not a chance, and don't know about the 2nd either. I think he benefited from the team he played on, and how good Troy Smith played. I can see him being a total bust.

I agree completely.I see him as a solid third rounder.

Are you guys talking NFL draft or Dynasty league draft?I can assure you no matter how much of a bust Pittman might be that he will not last to the 3rd round of a dynasty league that has 10 or more teams.

 

[LHUCKS]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.

To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.

He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

Would you draft him in the first round?

Not a chance, and don't know about the 2nd either. I think he benefited from the team he played on, and how good Troy Smith played. I can see him being a total bust.

I agree completely.I see him as a solid third rounder.

Are you guys talking NFL draft or Dynasty league draft?I can assure you no matter how much of a bust Pittman might be that he will not last to the 3rd round of a dynasty league that has 10 or more teams.

NFL draft.

 

[Biabreakable]

Am I the only one that thinks Pittman is vastly overrated?

I must have missed where people were comparing him to Barry Sanders.Pittman definitly has some good speed to get outside. I am not that impressed with him as I did not see him run hard between the tackles or show exceptional agility. But you cannot teach speed and that is a quality he has that other RBs may not. Many of the other skills can be taught. So that does give Pittman some upside to make it as a starter at the next level.

To be overrated people would have to be talking him up as a great prospect. I have not been reading anything like that about him at all. So no I don't think of him as overrated at least not yet.

He is a RB worthy of consideration because he could be successful at the next level.

Would you draft him in the first round?

Not a chance, and don't know about the 2nd either. I think he benefited from the team he played on, and how good Troy Smith played. I can see him being a total bust.

I agree completely.I see him as a solid third rounder.

Are you guys talking NFL draft or Dynasty league draft?I can assure you no matter how much of a bust Pittman might be that he will not last to the 3rd round of a dynasty league that has 10 or more teams.

NFL draft.

Ahhh okay I totaly agree that could happen. Pittman might be a 3rd down/special teams type prospect. Hard to know yet at this point.ETA- I do not think that is what Bloom is ranking these players for however. The rankings are based more on player talent that will translate into FF value. If Bloom were ranking for the NFL draft the DEs would be much higher.

 

[LHUCKS]

Pittman might be a 3rd down/special teams type prospect. Hard to know yet at this point.

That's exactly what I see him doing in the NFL.Any player can work hard and make improvements at the next level, but based on what I saw from him on the field this year I'm not overly impressed with his abilities.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

<_<

 

[DAG]

So what makes him comparable or even better than these 2 Qbs?Hopefully he has bigger hands than CPep and doesen't like riding motorcycles.

Comparable- ability to keep the play alive and hit someone anywhere on the field. You can play perfect defense against them, and they still find a way to beat you.He CAN be better (not saying he will be) because his arm strength is almost unmatched.

In regards to his arm strength.I have heard many say that he has an exceptionaly strong arm. The majority is probobly right about that.I just have not seen the evidence. I have not seen him throwing lasers on deep outs or across the field when he rolls out. What I have seen are rainbow arcs that go a long distance but still take awhile to arrive.A lot of Qbs can throw passes like that.Guess I am just looking for more evidence on Russell's uber arm strength. I have not seen anything proving that yet.

I watched Russell play his whole career at LSU, and until this season I had mixed feelings on his prospects as a pro. I can tell you that very few LSU fans (as far as I could tell) saw him being this highly regarded by the NFL until the middle of this season. In fact, after Matt Flynn played so well against Miami in the Peach Bowl, there was a QB controversy among the fan base going into this season; there was never one among the coaching staff however, as Russell was always the guy.I can tell you that everything you've heard about the arm strength is true. Russell could make good on Uncle Rico's claim to throw a football over a mountain. While his mechanics are less than ideal, he doesn't need a long windup to throw lasers, so I think his release will end up being pretty compact (though his size may make it look a little longer than it actually is). But the arm strength is there; I've read scouts say as early as last season that as soon as he enters the NFL he'll have arguably the strongest, or at least one of the strongest, arms in the league. I don't think that's hyperbole. As for the arcing passes, that's something I read a lot as a criticism, but that may be part of the way Jimbo Fisher (our outgoing OC) designed his passing game. This is speculation on my part, but when Rohan Davie was at LSU Fisher had him working one offseason to put more arc into his passes, to act like he was trying to drop the ball into a basket. You could see it work its way into our passing attack, and Davie had a pretty strong arm. I don't know for sure, but that may be why several of Russell's passes were rainbows. I think the other reason is mechanics, but he could throw a pass level to the ground for about 40 yards off his back foot. In other words, he's demonstrated the ability to sling it from any position, no matter his footwork. That makes me think the rainbows were by design.Russell really came into his own as an all-around player this season. Before this past year, he was thought by fans to be a questionable decision-maker. That said, Fisher always said Russell was the best QB making reads and calls at the line of scrimmage that he's ever had. Everyone is going to talk about his physical freakishness, but his mental capacity for the game has been underappreciated throughout his career. That said, he *has* struggled with decision-making in the past, and got a lot better this seaon. Part of this is trusting his athletic ability too much, and part of it was probably just maturity.Russell also developed more of a rushing game this season (e.g. 70+ rushing yards against TN) but nobody is going to mistake him for the pre-knee-injury Culpepper. He does slide around pretty well in the pocket, and it seems to me he started to sense the rush a little better throughout his career.To me the big thing he'll need to work on is timing, and I think this will affect his performance early on in his career. When you watch Russell live you really recognize how late he throws the ball, particularly on deeper routes. Instead of timing his throws with his receivers' breaks, or right before they pass the DB, Russell waits until he clearly sees them open to get rid of the ball. Often, as a result, the safety is able to come over forcing a catch in traffic. I think this issue will come out more in the pros with faster DBs and Russell will have to imrpove his timing. I never know how to feel about QBs who rocket up the boards because of a great final season. But I think the timing and mechanics are specifically what may hold Russell back initially. His progression this year was outstanding, though. His decision-making and even his timing got better, and I'm confident they'll improve. As far as the stuff you can't teach, he has a ridiculous arm, he's a good kid/leader, and he may have that "it" factor (like Vince Young) based on several last-minute winning drives he was able to pull off against top competition in the SEC.

 

[Biabreakable]

Very good posting DAG. I apprechiate you sharing your perspective on Russell. I know more about him now and have a better understanding of what to expect from him at the next level because of that.

 

[Spike]

A request, if possible, for future iterations.

Tiering.

For example:

1. AD

2. CJ

3. ML

4. JR

etc.

I think it can help answer some questions people pose as to your opinion of the separation between some players.

Great work, btw!

 

[trader jake]

Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina - I see the makings of a WR1 in Rice, a lot of the same qualities as Calvin Johnson - particularly superhuman body control. He's inferior to Johnson in every category, but they are the same kind of WR. I tend to put a higher value on upside than most dynasty owners, so that could explain my disagreement with the majority of people on this ranking.

I also liked what I saw of Sidney Rice but I've got a question for you Bloom...Any worry that Sidney Rice will flop in the NFL like many of Steve Spurrier's Florida wideouts? Were there any changes in the Fun-N-Gun at South Carolina that lead you to believe Rice's college game translates better to the pros than many Gator wideouts of the past?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Commentary to 100 finished, final initial version soon to come.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina - I see the makings of a WR1 in Rice, a lot of the same qualities as Calvin Johnson - particularly superhuman body control. He's inferior to Johnson in every category, but they are the same kind of WR. I tend to put a higher value on upside than most dynasty owners, so that could explain my disagreement with the majority of people on this ranking.

I also liked what I saw of Sidney Rice but I've got a question for you Bloom...Any worry that Sidney Rice will flop in the NFL like many of Steve Spurrier's Florida wideouts? Were there any changes in the Fun-N-Gun at South Carolina that lead you to believe Rice's college game translates better to the pros than many Gator wideouts of the past?

Unlike the long line of WRs who flopped coming out of the fun n gun, Rice's production was based on more individual talent than just being open because the offense worked. If anything, his upside was masked by having Syvelle Newton as a QB for part of the year (although Id take Newton over Reggie Ball )

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

A request, if possible, for future iterations.Tiering.For example:1. AD2. CJ3. ML4. JRetc.I think it can help answer some questions people pose as to your opinion of the separation between some players.Great work, btw!

Expect tiering to come once the NFL draft has happened. The commentary also addresses tiers. Also fantasy upside and downside comparisons will come in a future version.thanks for the tip and kind words.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Very good posting DAG. I apprechiate you sharing your perspective on Russell. I know more about him now and have a better understanding of what to expect from him at the next level because of that.

I second that.

 

[walkmac]

Bloom,

Thanks for your once again fantastic commentary.

I have an inquiry Ted Ginn. I'm going to assume that part of your reduction in his ranking goes to Ginn's size. There are some dominant "big" WR's in the NFL today - TO, CJ, Boldin, AJ (I don't want to get into the David Carr debate here, but I think we can acknowledge that the guy is big and that he has talent). However, if there is one thing that we have seen in the last couple of seasons it the ability of "little" WR's to make an impact. Here are some of the WR's who are listed under 6'0 who I think most of us would gladly take on our fantasy team or are favorite team: Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Lavarneus Coles, Lee Evans, Deion Branch, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton. Marvin Harrison is listed at 6'0 but I'm not sure he is that big, and I'm pretty sure no one would cut him for that reason alone

I really believe that NFL GM's place to much emphasis on pure size when scouting WR (I'd point to BMW as the classic example), and there is a corresponding increased emphasis in fantasy football, particularly at the dynasty level. Many of the little, non-prototypical WR's have had major impacts recently. Do you think Ginn is suffering somewhat in pre-draft rankings due to this?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Bloom,Thanks for your once again fantastic commentary. I have an inquiry Ted Ginn. I'm going to assume that part of your reduction in his ranking goes to Ginn's size. There are some dominant "big" WR's in the NFL today - TO, CJ, Boldin, AJ (I don't want to get into the David Carr debate here, but I think we can acknowledge that the guy is big and that he has talent). However, if there is one thing that we have seen in the last couple of seasons it the ability of "little" WR's to make an impact. Here are some of the WR's who are listed under 6'0 who I think most of us would gladly take on our fantasy team or are favorite team: Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Lavarneus Coles, Lee Evans, Deion Branch, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton. Marvin Harrison is listed at 6'0 but I'm not sure he is that big, and I'm pretty sure no one would cut him for that reason alone I really believe that NFL GM's place to much emphasis on pure size when scouting WR (I'd point to BMW as the classic example), and there is a corresponding increased emphasis in fantasy football, particularly at the dynasty level. Many of the little, non-prototypical WR's have had major impacts recently. Do you think Ginn is suffering somewhat in pre-draft rankings due to this?

Its not just size, it's size (bulk, not height) + the willingness to play physical + lack of polish at the WR position. I'll think you'll find almost all of the WRs you named are either better at the bread and butter WR skills or play very tough. Im not saying Ginn will never do either, but I haven't seen it yet, so I remain skeptical.

 

[spec1alk]

 

[BigTex]

The dust has finally settled in my head and I have watched a good cross section of the draft class in person over the last three weeks. I really debated a lot of these rankings and as you all know, the combine and pro days factor in, and most importantly, the draft. The rankings on May 1 will be very different than these, keep that in mind. If I rebuilt these rankings from scratch right now, they would probably be different. Im sure once this is posted I'll read the rankings and start re-debating them from a different point of view, and some of you will bring some persuasive arguments as to why I am wrong about someone. I reserve the right to change these at any moment. This is all still very fluid in my mind, but this is a snapshot of where I am at right now, and meant to only be a very very general guide at this early stage. I did not have a chance to thoroughly proofread this, so forgive any spelling, position, team errors. I'll be working on the commentary for these during the rest of the week. Remember that this reflects both my player evaluation and general comparative evaluation of position value in full IDP leagues. These do not reflect a particular scoring system, they are more generic, but the commentary will address some values in specific systems.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - AD has the goods to be a top 10 RB, and that's gold, even in leagues that highly value WRs with options like PPR and start 3. I have been captivated by him from day one and I'm convinced he'll be a special player. Injuries are the only real drawback on his resume.
Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech - The Can't Miss player of the draft. Larry Fitzgerald v2.0. His initial dynasty value may actually exceed AD's, it's just that AD's ceiling is a lot higher.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, California - A notch below the top 2 both in terms of upside and talent. That's not a knock on Lynch - Calvin and AD would be premier prospects in any draft. The gap between Lynch and AD is closed some in PPR leagues. I love that Lynch had one of his best games last year on two bum ankles (Washington).
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU - He's ahead of the WRs because I'm not sure there's a future top 15 WR in the bunch. Russell has the strength, size, mobility, and arm to be a game breaker in the mold of Culpepper or Roethlisberger, but better.
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC - I really like Jarrett's chances of hitting, and I'm this close to seeing him possibly have the career path of another USC WR, Keyshawn Johnson. He could well establish himself as the #4 before the draft. Whether I would take Russell or Jarrett at 4 would depend on my roster at this point, they're that close.
Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina - I see the makings of a WR1 in Rice, a lot of the same qualities as Calvin Johnson - particularly superhuman body control. He's inferior to Johnson in every category, but they are the same kind of WR. I tend to put a higher value on upside than most dynasty owners, so that could explain my disagreement with the majority of people on this ranking.
Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee - I really dont have anything bad to say about Meachem. He could rise in the right situation. He just does not quite have the one outstanding attribute to separate himself the way Jarrett and Rice do. I am probably missing the forest for the trees in that analysis, because Meachem seems to have a better overall package of skills than Rice, but I am somewhat swayed by transcendental play.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU - I almost put Bowe 6th, but I felt I was becoming too influenced by the Senior Bowl practices. Bowe was dazzling in practice, and just moved with a quickness and swiftness that a guy with his thick build should not be able to move. I reserve the right to re-shuffle this entire group of four WRs.
Ted Ginn Jr, WR, tOSU - Ginn falls to 9th because he's the only WR in this group that I can find a reason to be truly skeptical about. He hasn't demonstrated that he can handle the physical side of being an NFL WR. CBs played 10 yards off the line of scrimmage against him out of respect, but me thinks he'll face a lot more press coverage in the pros. Im not saying he cant bang, I'm just saying I haven't seen enough of it to believe yet. If he can, he'll be a steal at 9.
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - I just see too much of Eli in Quinn. He should put up nice numbers (Eli does), but are you happy if Eli is the starting QB on your dynasty team right now? Can you trade him for much? Probably not. Quinn has shown the ability to be a prolific passer, but he also does not rise to the occasion against tough defenses, and they only get tougher from here. Still, not a bad first round value pick if you are looking to rebuild at QB.
Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR, UTEP
Antonio Pittman, RB, tOSU
Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
Lorenzo Booker, RB, Florida St
Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
Greg Olsen, TE, Miami-FL
Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
Tony Hunt, RB, PSU
Zach Miller, TE, Arizona St
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, tOSU
Dwayne Wright, RB, Fresno St
Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska
Troy Smith, QB, tOSU
Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan St
Brandon Siler, LB, Florida
Paul Posluszny, LB, PSU
Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina
Jacoby Jones, WR, Lane College
Steve Smith, WR, USC
Craig Davis, WR, LSU
Brian Leonard, RB, Rutgers
H.B. Blades, LB, Pitt
Buster Davis, LB, Florida St
Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston
Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware
Jason Hill, WR, Washington St
Rhema McKnight, WR, Notre Dame
Thomas Clayton, RB, Kansas St
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Marshall
Jon Beason, LB, Miami-FL
Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St
LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Steve Breaston, WR, Michigan
Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami-FL
Maurice Price, WR, Charleston Southern
Paul Williams, WR, Fresno St
Joe Newton, TE, Oregon St
Darius Walker, RB, Notre Dame
DeShawn Wynn, RB, Florida
Isaiah Stanback, QB, Washington
Ryan Moore, WR, Miami-FL
Gary Russell, RB, Minnesota (former)
Michael Griffin, S, Texas
John Beck, QB, BYU
Dallas Baker, WR, Florida
Brandon Myles, WR, WVU
Ramonce Taylor, RB, Texas College
Courtney Taylor, WR, Auburn
Rufus Alexander, LB, Oklahoma
David Harris, LB, Michigan
Tyrone Moss, RB, Miami-FL
Josh Swogger, QB, Montana
Jeff Rowe, QB, Nevada
David Ball, WR, UNH
Kolby Smith, RB, Louisville
Selvin Young, RB, Texas
Kenneth Darby, RB, Alabam
James Jones, WR, SJSU
Laurent Robinson, WR, Illinois St
Jon Abbate, LB, Wake Forest
Anthony Waters, LB, Clemson
Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
Ronnie McGill, RB, UNC
Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue
Jeff Samardzija, WR, Notre Dame
Scott Chandler, TE, Iowa
Martrez Milner, TE, Georgia
Jordan Palmer, QB, UTEP
Matt Gutierrez, QB, Idaho State
Jeff Smith, QB, Georgetown (KY)
Arkee Whitlock, RB, SIU
Justise Hairston, RB, CCSU
Stewart Bradley, LB, Nebraska
Aaron Rouse, S, Virginia Tech
Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Sabby Piscitelli, S, Oregon St
Justin Durant, LB, Hampton
Eric Weddle, DB, Utah
Earl Everett, LB, Florida
Prescott Burgess, LB, Michigan
Justin Vincent, RB, LSU
Danny Ware, RB, Georgia
Chris Henry, RB, Arizona
Chansi Stuckey, WR, Clemson
Matt Trannon, WR, Michigan St

Any changes since th combine?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Any changes since th combine?

Oh the 100 is entirely different now, and it will continue to be in flux. Im working up the latest update, but Im also swamped with the launch of nfldraftguys. There will be a fully updated 100 with commentary by next friday.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Hey, not sure if this is the right topic but I can't remember who a certain rookie DE is. There was a report that the coach of this DE had to take him off the field just so the offense could get plays off in practice. Can anyone help me out with who they were talking about. TIA

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Hey, not sure if this is the right topic but I can't remember who a certain rookie DE is. There was a report that the coach of this DE had to take him off the field just so the offense could get plays off in practice. Can anyone help me out with who they were talking about. TIA

I remember hearing this about Georgia's Charles "Big Bully" Johnson.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Hey, not sure if this is the right topic but I can't remember who a certain rookie DE is. There was a report that the coach of this DE had to take him off the field just so the offense could get plays off in practice. Can anyone help me out with who they were talking about. TIA

I remember hearing this about Georgia's Charles "Big Bully" Johnson.

Thank you. If this is true it has to say something about the type of player this guy is.

 

[kevthegrad]

bump

 

[Da Good Da Bad an Da Ugly]

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Ill knock the last three installments in quick succession and post one last 100 w/o commentary before the draft. Ill try to release the post draft 100 w/o commentary as soon as I can when we get back from NYC - I hope to have it up by Tuesday at the latest.

 

[spec1alk]