The killer B's.....Brady vs Brees vs Bulger (1 Viewer)

[clinton_c]

All three of these guys have similar ADP's:

Brady 3.06

Brees 3.08

Bulgar 3.12

Lets break down their top 3 weapons:

Brady-Moss, Stallworth, Maroney

Brees-Colston, Henderson, Bush

Bulgar-Holt, Bennett, Jackson

Last year points my league:

Brees-297

Bulgar-286

Brady-252

What has changed from last year?

Brady-2 more weapons at WR...one a major weapon in the redzone.

Brees-another year to gel with team

Bulgar-added Bennett

Playoff schedule:

Brady: Pitt, NYJ, Miami

Brees: @Atl, Ariz, Philly

Bulgar: @Cin, GB, Pit

It seems pretty even. It appears Brees playoff schedule may be a bit easier.

anyone have any insight on who will be the top dog of these 3?

 

[Phlash]

You can't go wrong with any of them. Draft whichever one falls to you first. I'm surprised to see Brady's ADP above Brees's, and I think Brees is a better value at this point in that case, as Brees had the better 2006 and has better chemistry with his WRs. In my opinion, Bulger may be the best value of all. I'm a Patriots homer and I will admit that the lack of game time Brady's getting with Moss and Stallworth is discouraging. I will admit that Brady is just a natural and gels very quickly with his WRs, but I think that Bulger can will prove to be the better overall value. You just KNOW that if Bulger plays the whole season his floor is 4000/26. Brady's ceiling may be a bit higher than that (around the 4300/33 range) but I think Bulger has an even higher ceiling than Brady's (about 4400/35). Pick your poison - take whoever falls farthest.

 

[Kub]

In 2005, Brady finished ahead of Brees by ~ 38 points and Bulger by ~142 points.

Simply put, Brady has not had the injury history that Brees and Bulger have had, which is why I would draft him ahead them.

 

[coachjim]

All three of these guys have similar ADP's:

Brady 3.06

Brees 3.08

Bulgar 3.12

Lets break down their top 3 weapons:

Brady-Moss, Stallworth, Maroney

Brees-Colston, Henderson, Bush

Bulgar-Holt, Bennett, Jackson

Last year points my league:

Brees-297

Bulgar-286

Brady-252

What has changed from last year?

Brady-2 more weapons at WR...one a major weapon in the redzone.

Brees-another year to gel with team

Bulgar-added Bennett

Playoff schedule:

Brady: Pitt, NYJ, Miami

Brees: @Atl, Ariz, Philly

Bulgar: @Cin, GB, Pit

It seems pretty even. It appears Brees playoff schedule may be a bit easier.

anyone have any insight on who will be the top dog of these 3?

Bulger also added McMichael. I would like any of the three. If you put a gun to my head I would probably go:Brady

Bulger

Brees

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Bulger

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

In 2005, Brady finished ahead of Brees by ~ 38 points and Bulger by ~142 points. Simply put, Brady has not had the injury history that Brees and Bulger have had, which is why I would draft him ahead them.

I see people cherry pick stats all the time in a ridiculous fashion and generally just ignore it, but cmon. You took Bulger's worst year and compared it to Brady's best year (which happened to coincide) to make your point.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Whichever one I can draft in the 4th round or later (which probably means Bulger). 3rd round is too early for any of them.

 

[Kub]

In 2005, Brady finished ahead of Brees by ~ 38 points and Bulger by ~142 points. Simply put, Brady has not had the injury history that Brees and Bulger have had, which is why I would draft him ahead them.

I see people cherry pick stats all the time in a ridiculous fashion and generally just ignore it, but cmon. You took Bulger's worst year and compared it to Brady's best year (which happened to coincide) to make your point.

I did not use those stats as the factual basis of my claim. All I did was quote 2005's numbers the same way he used 2006's, showing you can't put too much emphasis on the previous year's stats in making your conclusions.The overall point was that Brady has not missed a game since becoming the Patriots' starting QB in 2001. Meanwhile, Bulger had never been able to play every game until last year(played only 8 games in 2005) and Brees had a serious throwing arm injury at the end of the 2005 season.If I am taking a QB that early in a draft and the projected point totals are close, I am going to take the guy with the least amount of risk. For me, that is Brady.

 

[Britney Spears]

The type of wheat or the Asians?

 

[kevthegrad]

I hated Brian Blair. He is no good. I make him humble.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Brees

Bulger

Brady

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think Marc Bulger has a good chance of finishing as the #1 overall QB this year.

Do you know who the offensive coordinator was when Daunte Culpepper had a near-MVP year in 2004? You guessed it, Mike Linehan.

And I believe Bulger >>> Culpepper even if you're comparing the healthy Culpepper instead of the wreck he is now.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

All three of these guys have similar ADP's:

Brady 3.06

Brees 3.08

Bulgar 3.12

Lets break down their top 3 weapons:

Brady-Moss, Stallworth, Maroney

Brees-Colston, Henderson, Bush

Bulgar-Holt, Bennett, Jackson

Last year points my league:

Brees-297

Bulgar-286

Brady-252

What has changed from last year?

Brady-2 more weapons at WR...one a major weapon in the redzone.

Brees-another year to gel with team

Bulgar-added Bennett

Playoff schedule:

Brady: Pitt, NYJ, Miami

Brees: @Atl, Ariz, Philly

Bulgar: @Cin, GB, Pit

It seems pretty even. It appears Brees playoff schedule may be a bit easier.

anyone have any insight on who will be the top dog of these 3?

Bulger also added McMichael. I would like any of the three. If you put a gun to my head I would probably go:Brady

Bulger

Brees

I think Brady is the slight favorite and my first instinct is that Bulger could have the highest upside of the 3....but Brees is palying indoors during the playoff stretch. Hell, I will be thrilled to land any one of these 3. Heck, after these 3 (and considering Manning and Palmer are slightly better than them) there is not a lot of difference in the next 10. You have to get a top 5 QB this year in a QB heavy league.

 

[shadyridr]

Mike Linehan is a great coordinator for Marc Bulgar.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Mike Linehan is a great coordinator for Marc Bulgar.

I think I had a stroke this weekend. I've been for three days now.

Scott Linehan, of course.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Bulger

Brees

Brady

 

[zamboni]

They're all pretty even, but at the end of the day, I'd side with the QB whose offensive scheme will probably have the greatest propensity to chuck the ball most frequently. To me, that's the Saints and Brees.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

They're all pretty even, but at the end of the day, I'd side with the QB whose offensive scheme will probably have the greatest propensity to chuck the ball most frequently. To me, that's the Saints and Brees.

The Saints are going to pass more to Bush, Colston and ??? than the Rams are to Jackson, Holt and Bruce?

 

[zamboni]

They're all pretty even, but at the end of the day, I'd side with the QB whose offensive scheme will probably have the greatest propensity to chuck the ball most frequently. To me, that's the Saints and Brees.

The Saints are going to pass more to Bush, Colston and ??? than the Rams are to Jackson, Holt and Bruce?

It will probably be close, and will likely depends on how the defenses play. I just think the Rams will choose to lean on the running game with Jackson a bit more than the Saints will with Deuce/Bush. Bush will likely get a lot of "pseudo" carries via screen passes.

 

[shadyridr]

They're all pretty even, but at the end of the day, I'd side with the QB whose offensive scheme will probably have the greatest propensity to chuck the ball most frequently. To me, that's the Saints and Brees.

To me thats the Rams, with the Saints throwing the least out of these 3 teams IMO. I got them rankedBulgerBradyBrees

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

You can't go wrong with any of them. Draft whichever one falls to you first. I'm surprised to see Brady's ADP above Brees's, and I think Brees is a better value at this point in that case, as Brees had the better 2006 and has better chemistry with his WRs. In my opinion, Bulger may be the best value of all. I'm a Patriots homer and I will admit that the lack of game time Brady's getting with Moss and Stallworth is discouraging. I will admit that Brady is just a natural and gels very quickly with his WRs, but I think that Bulger can will prove to be the better overall value. You just KNOW that if Bulger plays the whole season his floor is 4000/26. Brady's ceiling may be a bit higher than that (around the 4300/33 range) but I think Bulger has an even higher ceiling than Brady's (about 4400/35). Pick your poison - take whoever falls farthest.

Bulger played 16g for the first time last year and had a career-high 24 TDs. I'm not comfortable saying that he's a mortal lock to set his career high in TDs yet again if he plays a full season-and since he's only done that once he's no lock to do so again.I have it

Brees

Brady

Bulger

I like Brees particularly because my league gives huge bonuses for long TDs. Brady's TDs tend to be shorter than Brees'. Brady's durability should not be discounted though.

 

[shadyridr]

You can't go wrong with any of them. Draft whichever one falls to you first. I'm surprised to see Brady's ADP above Brees's, and I think Brees is a better value at this point in that case, as Brees had the better 2006 and has better chemistry with his WRs. In my opinion, Bulger may be the best value of all. I'm a Patriots homer and I will admit that the lack of game time Brady's getting with Moss and Stallworth is discouraging. I will admit that Brady is just a natural and gels very quickly with his WRs, but I think that Bulger can will prove to be the better overall value. You just KNOW that if Bulger plays the whole season his floor is 4000/26. Brady's ceiling may be a bit higher than that (around the 4300/33 range) but I think Bulger has an even higher ceiling than Brady's (about 4400/35). Pick your poison - take whoever falls farthest.

Bulger played 16g for the first time last year and had a career-high 24 TDs. I'm not comfortable saying that he's a mortal lock to set his career high in TDs yet again if he plays a full season-and since he's only done that once he's no lock to do so again.I have it

Brees

Brady

Bulger

I like Brees particularly because my league gives huge bonuses for long TDs. Brady's TDs tend to be shorter than Brees'. Brady's durability should not be discounted though.

Thats because Mike Martz never passed near the goalline. I know, ironic right? Meanwhile Scott Linehan is the #1 OC when it comes to passing on the goalline.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Bulger played 16g for the first time last year and had a career-high 24 TDs.

Because he finally had a coach that took an interest in having his offensive line actually block someone.

 

[Jayrod]

Popular theory among Rams fans here in Missouri is that they will be involved in a lot of shootouts. Their defense is suspect and their offense is the clear strength of the team. With Holt, Bruce, Bennett, McMichael, Jackson & even Leonard, they will throw early and often. Especially when at home in the dome.

I think Bulger (if he plays every game) will put up better numbers than Brees and be slightly behind Brady. With their ADP's, you probably won't have the option to draft either and will have to choose based on your draft spot. I'd be happy with Brady anytime in the mid 3rd and Bulger anytime at or after the 3-4 turn. I think Brees falls back a bit from last year. I'm thinking solid and top 10, but not so great as to warrant a middle 3rd round draft pick.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Thats because Mike Martz never passed near the goalline. I know, ironic right? Meanwhile Scott Linehan is the #1 OC when it comes to passing on the goalline.

Yep, that's a good pair of underused facts. This is all the more reason for me-with my specific rules-to rank Bulger below Brees & Brady. Long TDs carry the load in my main 2 leagues. Of course that doesn't matter for everyone else.I had Bulger clearly behind Brees & Brady. You guys are making good points and changing my mind a bit. I still think that he's #3 but maybe it is closer than I thought. I thought he tailed off at the end of the year but I looked it up and he didn't.

 

[simey]

bulger

brees

brady

 

[zamboni]

Meanwhile Scott Linehan is the #1 OC when it comes to passing on the goalline.

I'm curious as to how you came up with that. While it would probably take an in-depth statistical exercise, Jackson did have 13 rushing TDs (3 receiving) last year.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

All three of these guys have similar ADP's:

Brady 3.06

Brees 3.08

Bulgar 3.12

Lets break down their top 3 weapons:

Brady-Moss, Stallworth, Maroney

Brees-Colston, Henderson, Bush

Bulgar-Holt, Bennett, Jackson

Last year points my league:

Brees-297

Bulgar-286

Brady-252

What has changed from last year?

Brady-2 more weapons at WR...one a major weapon in the redzone.

Brees-another year to gel with team

Bulgar-added Bennett

Playoff schedule:

Brady: Pitt, NYJ, Miami

Brees: @Atl, Ariz, Philly

Bulgar: @Cin, GB, Pit

It seems pretty even. It appears Brees playoff schedule may be a bit easier.

anyone have any insight on who will be the top dog of these 3?

How aren't the running backs added in here as weapons? Having a quality running game or a running back that can catch and make a defender miss and keep a drive going or better yet take a simple screen play and turn it into a 55 yard TD pass is huge on a Sunday afternoon.Stephen Jackson is the best running back when talking about these 3 QB's. So, you have to give the advantage to Bulger. However, Brees does have Reggie Bush to throw the ball to on short passing plays and has Deuce and Reggie to hand off to to slow down pass rushes....so you don't lose much ground there.

I think Brady does lose ground in this department. If there's one question mark in NE, I think it's their running game. If Maroney doesn't workout for whatever reason, most likely injury then I could see some problems there.

Another thing not mentioned is their team's defenses. I see the Rams and Saints giving up a lot more points than I do New England. Those Qb's will be throwing more this year IMO than Brady will because of the amount of point they're going to need to be in football games.

On the flip side......to bring Brady closer back to the pack in terms of fantasy is durability. Although any QB is just a play away from being knocked out, I think most people would agree that Brady has a higher percentage of playing in more games than Bulger who always seems to get dinged up at some point during the season and Brees.

So, with all this said what this means for me is I really don't worry about taking anyone of the 3. I don't want to reach for anyone of them because I have them so closely ranked for different reasons. I'd let others take the first or 2nd one and then grab who's left after I took someone the previous round who will help my team.

I'd throw Mcnabb in this same group even though his name doesn't begin with a B.

 

[shadyridr]

Meanwhile Scott Linehan is the #1 OC when it comes to passing on the goalline.

I'm curious as to how you came up with that. While it would probably take an in-depth statistical exercise, Jackson did have 13 rushing TDs (3 receiving) last year.

took it from FFI

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Thats because Mike Martz never passed near the goalline. I know, ironic right? Meanwhile Scott Linehan is the #1 OC when it comes to passing on the goalline.

Yep, that's a good pair of underused facts. This is all the more reason for me-with my specific rules-to rank Bulger below Brees & Brady. Long TDs carry the load in my main 2 leagues. Of course that doesn't matter for everyone else.

I don't see how that matters.

 

[RedZone]

I would also add that the depth of the Rams is better, as many people fail to recognize Bruce's contribution. In a league that rewards yardage heavily (per 20 - 25 yards as opposed to 50 yards), Bruce will add to Bulger's numbers greatly over the season. He (Bruce) looked great during camp, running the crispest routes of all the receivers and did not drop a single pass in the 100 degree F heat index practice/scrimmage.

I reluctantly released Bulger to hold onto S Jax, Holt and Wayne as most years the $3-5 qbs do not go until rounds 4-6 but this year, there is a lot of buzz about qbs with the free agent pickups.

I would put McNabb back in the second tier group as it sounds as though he is near fully recovered and the addition of Curtis will replace the loss of Stallworth. Obviously, the Eagles could use the likes of TO (talent-wise) to take best advantage of McNabb and the question marks around the Eagles TE position with LJ's camp injury are suspect but Westbrook is a much better receiving RB than all but two or three backs and McNabb looks to him often.

I would rank them

Bulger

Brees

Brady

McNabb

The ranking is based upon the defense unit strength as much as the qb ability and wr talent. I think the Saints and Rams will continue to need a potent offense, though the Rams should be stronger on the D side this year. Henderson's hamstring injury worries me a bit, but the Saints have some depth and the addition of a good receiving TE bumps Brees over Brady.

The Pats D is just too strong to need games over 28+ points from the O. Also, the injury history of Stallworth and Moss makes it difficult to project a full season production from both and Watson has just returned to practice. Further, if Mauroney's injury recurs, the ground game could stall which would make defending against the pass easier for Pats opponents.

All said, hard to go wrong with this grouping. I wish I had kept Bulger over Holt and would have grabbed him in the third. Brees, Brady and McNabb are rounds 4-5 value easily.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Reading these threads make me even more mad at Mike Vick.....if only the idiot could have kept clean. Every year you could count on getting him at least 3 rounds after these so called killer Bs and he would still kick their asses. And all the while, you could get better WR2/3 and RB2/3 and TE1.....Grrr......

Last year's QB production in my FF League (and this is very std scoring)

Manning 364

Brees 302

Bulger 293

Vick 289

Palmer 284

Brady 256

Kitna 248

Rivers 243

McNabb 230

Eli Manning 226

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Thats because Mike Martz never passed near the goalline. I know, ironic right? Meanwhile Scott Linehan is the #1 OC when it comes to passing on the goalline.

Yep, that's a good pair of underused facts. This is all the more reason for me-with my specific rules-to rank Bulger below Brees & Brady. Long TDs carry the load in my main 2 leagues. Of course that doesn't matter for everyone else.

I don't see how that matters.

Linehan throws a ton inside the 10. That probably gives Bulger more opportunities for TDs < 10 yards than just about any QB-though Brady throws a lot there too. Therefore if Bulger, Brees & Bulger throw a similar # of TDs as they did last year Brady & Brees will have a higher ratio of long TDs. Long TDs are worth a lot more points in my leagues than short ones, therefore they will have more points than Bulger.Last year the points broke down thusly:

Brees 182

Bulger 131

Brady 125

Brady had a lot of short TDs last year (only 3 > 35 yards). That's below average for him and I attribute that to the WRs.

Bulger only had 3 TDs > 20 yards

I don't have Brees' breakdown but his WRs averaged 17.5 y/c which was 2nd in the league to Philly's.

I rank Brady ahead of Bulger because I expect Brady to

1. have more TDs than last year's 24 and

2. to have more long TDs to Moss/Stallworth/Welker. I'm salivating at the thought of Brady throwing bombs to that group.

3. Have to throw a bit more than people may think because I'm not confident in NE's running game. I don't know if Maroney can carry the rock 275 times and if he can't I don't think that Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans will be able to do the job.

I expect Bulger to post similar numbers though you can certainly make an argument that they will improve.

 

[kensat30]

Least risk = Brady

Biggest upside = Brees

Best bet to finish top5 QB = Bulger

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I'm amazed at how many people rank Brady last on this list.

Dude had zero WRs last year, now he's got 2 sweet weapons.

Brady

Brees

Bulger.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

1. Brady - Almost never misses a game. Most receiving talent he's ever had by far. Loss of Dillon = more passing as they don't want to wear down Maroney. They will protect the lead with short passes as much as runs in the 4th qtr.

2. Bulger - The addition of Bennett and McMichael is huge in terms of red zone TD passes. I think he's a lock for 4,000 yards and a good bet to surpass his career high 24 TDs.

3. Brees - Very close to Bulger. Great to have Bush as a target, but pretty iffy weapons at WR after Colston who may be in line for a sophomore slump. Didn't he fade a bit in the 2nd half of the season?

Overall, Brady appears to be the best and safest pick. Bulger could have a nice upside. Brees looks hard pressed to match last year's #s.

 

[Jayrod]

I'm amazed at how many people rank Brady last on this list.Dude had zero WRs last year, now he's got 2 sweet weapons.BradyBreesBulger.

Brady is listed last because:#1 - he has the highest ADP = highest cost#2 - the Pats' offensive players are very inconsistant from week to week#3 - Brady has a tougher schedule in weeks 14-16#4 - the Pats should be ahead throughout most of their games and will lean more on the run than the other two teams#5 - the Pats have the potential to have wrapped up their postseason spot by week 16, which means there is a slight possibility Brady doesn't even play that week.Bulger is pretty much the opposite in all 5 cases and is a much better value pick than Brady, IMO.

 

[inca911]

I agree that Brady got some weapons this year, but I prefer Bulgers week 14-16 schedule to Brady's and definitely to Brees'. Here are the team defense passing stats from 2006 for NO, NE, and StL for the critical playoff weeks. Overall, Bulger's schedule is also easier.

NO weeks 14-17: @Atl (20TDs, 3900 yds), Ari (21TDs, 3900yds), Phi (17TDs, 3300 yds), @Chi (18TDs, 3300yds)

NE weeks 14-17: Pit (21TDs, 3600yds), NYJ (19 TDs, 3400yds), Mia (22TDs, 3200yds), @NYG (21TDs, 3800yds)

StL weeks 14-17: @Cin(24TDs, 4000yds), GB (25TDs, 3600yds), Pit (21TDs, 3600yds), @Ari (21TDs, 3900yds)

StL also had the fewest INTs of any team last year (5 fewer than NO and 4 fewer than NE). If your league penalizes a lot for INTs (one league I know gives INTs -4, and TDs are +4), that's also a consideration.

 

[zamboni]

I agree that Brady got some weapons this year, but I prefer Bulgers week 14-16 schedule to Brady's and definitely to Brees'. Here are the team defense passing stats from 2006 for NO, NE, and StL for the critical playoff weeks. Overall, Bulger's schedule is also easier.NO weeks 14-17: @Atl (20TDs, 3900 yds), Ari (21TDs, 3900yds), Phi (17TDs, 3300 yds), @Chi (18TDs, 3300yds)NE weeks 14-17: Pit (21TDs, 3600yds), NYJ (19 TDs, 3400yds), Mia (22TDs, 3200yds), @NYG (21TDs, 3800yds)StL weeks 14-17: @Cin(24TDs, 4000yds), GB (25TDs, 3600yds), Pit (21TDs, 3600yds), @Ari (21TDs, 3900yds)

Not to single you out, but that's backwards-looking thinking. It's virtually impossible to extrapolate team defenses in weeks 14-17 when the season is still a month away.Long story short - I'm just not a SOS believer.

 

[inca911]

I agree that Brady got some weapons this year, but I prefer Bulgers week 14-16 schedule to Brady's and definitely to Brees'. Here are the team defense passing stats from 2006 for NO, NE, and StL for the critical playoff weeks. Overall, Bulger's schedule is also easier.NO weeks 14-17: @Atl (20TDs, 3900 yds), Ari (21TDs, 3900yds), Phi (17TDs, 3300 yds), @Chi (18TDs, 3300yds)NE weeks 14-17: Pit (21TDs, 3600yds), NYJ (19 TDs, 3400yds), Mia (22TDs, 3200yds), @NYG (21TDs, 3800yds)StL weeks 14-17: @Cin(24TDs, 4000yds), GB (25TDs, 3600yds), Pit (21TDs, 3600yds), @Ari (21TDs, 3900yds)

Not to single you out, but that's backwards-looking thinking. It's virtually impossible to extrapolate team defenses in weeks 14-17 when the season is still a month away.Long story short - I'm just not a SOS believer.

I don't mind. I like Bulger against Cincy and GB to get me to my league's superbowl. SOS isn't definitive, but defensive performance does trend in a macro sense. I doubt you are stating that defenses are impossible to predict from year to year. Do you really want to play your QB against the Bears or Eagles in your superbowl instead of against the Titans or 49ers? When I see similar performance between players, the league playoff schedule is one consideration. I agree 100% that some teams do so well improving against the run in the next year that their passing TDs increase, or vice versa. The Pats allowed 10 passing TDs in 2006 (best), but 25 passing TDs in 2005 (5th worst), so I'm absolutely not arguing that teams can't change in a year.

 

[clinton_c]

wow...after reading this thread I can see why I am torn on who to pick between these 3....its wide open.

I actually will probably wait till 4.5 (the guys at the 3rd/4th rd turn have Palmer and Manning as keepers) so my best bet is just to grab who falls to me there.

Still if deciding between two, it will be a coin flip.

 

[Righetti]

Brees

Bulger

Brady

for fantasy purposes

Brady

Brees

Bulger

for NFL purposes

Bulger

Brees

Brady

for looking like a schmuck purposes

 

[Kub]

I am surprised how many people are referrencing these guys ADP in terms of their value. I think that is putting too much weight on their ADP, since all three range from 3.06 to 3.12.

Prior to and during the draft, I look at ADP to give me an idea how long I can wait before I need to address a position. For example, say I had Bulger, Brady, and Brees in my second tier of QBs and I wanted to assure that I would get one of them because I think there is a substantial drop off at the QB position after the top X QBs. If that is the case, I had better plan on using my 3rd round pick or better for a QB otherwise I risk losing out on a top QB. Conversely, I shouldn't feel I have to use my 1st or 2nd rounder to get one because Brady, Brees, and Bulger have been available in the mid to late 3rd in most drafts.

Beyond that, I think you're looking too far into ADP.