Assani Fisher
Footballguy
I wrote this before the season started. Obviously a few of the points are outdated now that we've seen 2 games, but most of the argument still stands imo. Thoughts?
Every year there is a team that comes completely out of nowhere to make the playoffs. And I'm not talking about teams like Miami or Arizona this year- those are trendy "surprise" picks that a ton of people are saying will do well. I'm talking COMPLETELY out of nowhere. Consider last year. The Bears were coming off of a 5-11 season in which they finished dead last in their division. Then they lost Rex Grossman in the preseason, and decided to go with a rookie 4th round QB to start for them! Everyone thought they would be horrible again. And somehow they manage to dominate their division and make the playoffs.Or two years ago....the SD Chargers were coming off of a 4-12 season, tied for worst in the entire NFL. Remember how Eli Manning refused to even play for them? They were considered a laughingstock of the NFL. Gates comes out of nowhere, Brees becomes a pro bowler, and they flip that record to 12-4!If I were to have made a thread about either of those teams before the NFL season started, everyone would've laughed. And I expect the same to happen here. I'm not picking an obvious surprise team here. I'm sticking my neck out there and picking a team that nobody is giving a chance, and I very well could look terrible when they lose tomorrow and/or when they go on to have another horrible year. But before you blindly critisize, make a pick of your own.Ok, so lets look at some qualities that a good surprise pick should have. I wouldn't say that its a necessity for a team to have all of these, but at least a few of them should be seen...1. Average or bad division- clearly its going to be tough for a team like New Orleans, Oakland, or Cleveland to be surprise teams simply because of their tough divisions.2. An easy out-of-division schedule- pretty self explanatory here.3. A team that is unfairly undervalued because they were affected negatively by injuries last year- One of my favorite things to do is to take a look at a team that has reamined in tact their key pieces the past few years and has been good for most years but had everything fall apart last year. Usually those teams are undervalued for the current year because all anyone remembers is the most recent year.4. Positive offseason moves that have been pretty quiet and unnoticed. Things like improving offensive or defensive line play, hiring a new coordinator, adding a few high character guys, gettng an emotional leader back from injury, and so on. These things don't always grab the headlines like the Cowboys' signing of T.O., but they can be just as important.5. Winnable early season games to give the team confidence- I believe that confidence is huge in the NFL, and teams with easy early schedules, especially young teams, are very fortunate.So without further ado, my 2006 surprise pick: the NY Jets.Lets take a look at how they stack up in these areas:1. Everyone expects the Bills to be horrible, so no need to waste any time there. The Dolphins are a bit of an enigma- yes, they finished last year with 6 wins, so things are pointing up. But those 6 wins only included one quality opponent that wasn't sitting their starters. And they didn't look like a playoff team in week 1, although thats obviously a tough opening matchup. Then comes NE. Everyone expects NE to dominate, and rightfully so. But the Branch holdout really is one of the worst things that could've happened to them imo. I'm a huge Brady supporter, but you've got to be kidding me with those WRs. Is there anyone to draw double teams at all on this roster? Add in to the fact that Dillon has never been a great pass catching back, and I simply don't see why teams won't put 8 in the box. And that NE defense is getting old and much worse. Their D is still living off their reputation from the past few years, but they finished 26th in yards allowed and 17th in points allowed last year....clearly their D isn't going to carry them anymore. 2. The Jets have a mixed bag here. They have a few really tough games for sure, but they also do play quite a few of the bottomfeeders of the NFL. Take a lookTennesseeIndianapolis@JacksonvilleDetroit@ClevelandChicagoHouston@Green Bay@MinnesotaOakland3. In 2004, the Jets went 10-6 and won a playoff game. In 2005, they lost their starting QB for pretty much the whole year, and they lost their stud RB for a good portion of the year. They also had quite a few injuries on defense, although the names are escaping me right now. I think this Jets team clearly fits the bill here.4. Maybe the biggest reason that I'm picking them here is this. I absolutely love their draft. They skipped on the sexy pick in Leinart, and took a guy who could be one of the most dominating lineman in the league immediately in Ferguson, then they followed that up with a steal in getting Mangold late in the first. Those two picks and Trey Teague coming in should immediately make their o-line a very above average unit, and we all know that football is won in the trenches. Everyone loves to write off Pennington due to his lack of arm strength, but I think that guys like Brady and Montana have proven that smart and accurate QBs can succeed in this league. Remember this is the same guy who lead the league with a 104 QB rating in his first year as a starter. Hell, even in his last year(2004) he had a very good 91 rating. This guy isn't a bad QB at all. And then you have the addition of Barlow. Clearly this guy isn't a complete stud, but its one of those quiet upgrades that go unnoticed but could be huge.And then of course theres the coaching change. Now I don't know a ton about Mangini, but I do know that he has great credentials and has experience with working under other fabulous coaches. I think that a new attitude was needed in NY, and I see this as an upgrade over Herm, who always seemed like a great guy who I rooted for, but who frustrated the hell ouf of me with his conservatism.Last year the Jets finished with the 12th ranked defense in yardage allowed....not horrible at all, and in Vilma they have a star to build around. Also they brought in Kimo von Oelhoffen who from everything I"ve heard is known for his leadership- that should greatly help the younger players on this squad. Offense was the clear problem with this team, and I believe that these moves I've discussed above give them a chance to drastically change things.5. I wouldn't call the Jets early schedule "easy" as they'll most likely be underdogs in every game. But the games are clearly winnable. Its not like they're opening up on the road against Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Denver here. They open up on the road in Tennesee, then face New England at home, then travel to Buffalo. Now, as I said, they're going to be slight underdogs in all 3 of these games. But would it shocked anyone that much if they went 3-0 here? I don't think its that much of a reach.So there you have it....bash away. Obviously I understand that this is a huge reach, but it happens every year, and I think that everyone could be underestimating this team.
the jets will be competitive, but not playoff caliber. The good news is, the amount of holes seems far less than before the year starts. Top needs for the jets(not in any specific order)1) A playmaking RB that can carry an offense the way curtis did. Id pretty much sell my future first born child to get adrian peterson in Green next summer.2) nose tackle- the 3-4 just doesnt work without a big space eater3) road grating guard or Right tackle- our run blocking is awful right now.fill these, and give the guys we have a year to gell and learn, and i think the jets could make a run at the playoffs next year.
A lot of people looking a little foolish now after NY won in Buffalo today rather easily(up 15 before a late TD).
