Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Between the articles that lead up to the season from the staff, the multiple threads from hardnosed analytics in this forum loaded with info, the tools that FBG provides for its subscribers, one might wonder how does this all come together? Are there actual scenarios where all these tools and info come together and help an owner gain a substantial advantage over the field? Allow me to indulge and if you have similar stories I want to read them.
A few weeks back the owner of the coffee shop I frequent down in Little Havana tells me he is running a fantasy football league this year and there might be a couple openings. He knows I like to sit in there and blog/post on the message boards here but I don't think he really knew how big a fan I really am or just how deep I like to get into fantasy football. I have been trying to find a local league and although this one is still an internet league, all the owners are locals including a couple police officers, teachers, you know regular people. It wasn't a cheap league and its pretty much winner takes all but I said sure I would love to join.
Now the Commish was not very good at getting me a lot of info. Just said the scoring was on the yahoo site, etc…and that system took me a little bit to get used to as I am always an MFL or RTS guy. I looked at the scoring and the rules, one of the most important things you should always do and I see a few things that made me think of how I was going to strategize. This is not a best ball league which is what I am used to so I had to focus more on individual players over platoons filling out certain slots. Also there were only 14 roster slots and you had to field a QB/2RBs/2WRs/Flex(WR/RB)/TE/Def/PK…9 starters and only 5 more slots…like Gene Hackman says in Hoosiers it's gonna be a lonely bench. .5 PPR, and 4Pts pass TDs, rest was pretty standard 1pt/20pass/10rush/10rec, 6 pts all other TDs but for some reason PKs only get .5pt for XP and 1-2 pts on short FG, 3 for anything 40+, 4 for 50+ so in DD for example they total something like 70-75 for the year and that's the elite PKs. So I knew for sure I wasn't going to take a PK till the 14th round no matter what. Also I wanted to only have 1 QB, 1TE(can't flex them), 1 Def. 1PK, leave 10 spots for the WRs and RBs. That was my plan and also because it was only 4 pts for pass TDs I wanted to be the last owner to take a QB unless some serious value fell my way.
I don't know if any of you have ever used Yahoo but you don't get your draft position until about 30 minutes before the draft. Still because I have done 15-20 of these already I knew with the DD software at home I could have time to load everything and not stress. I ended up with the #2 pick and to be honest I usually don't draft in the top of these things. Much more comfortable going WR/WR at the end of the 1st and drafting from that point on. But I go the #2 slot and I didn't think twice about grabbing Adrian Peterson.
Now this had a variety of owners and level of expertise to it but 3 QBs went in the 1st and only AJ went at WR. About the middle of the 2nd round I honestly thought I might get Calvin or Randy Moss but they went the last 2 picks before it was my turn. Still a decent tandem at WR could be had on the 2/3 turn and I thought hard about Ryan Grant as well. Many in here have singing his praises. I could have had him at the 2.11 but I passed and the owner behind me took him and Romo on the 2/3 turn. Even though the RBs were flying off the board I could tell these guys were trying for flash over substance. I felt I could perhaps steal Joseph Addai at the 4.11 and I feel he and Grant are similar in production. The DD software was showing WR was the right place to grab value so I scooped up Reggie Wayne at the 2.11 and Miles Austin at the 3.02, I felt the two of them filled up my starting WRs nicely.
So now the waiting game begins and in these early round s every pick hurts a little but lots and lots of WRs were coming off the board which didn't bother me a bit and QBs were still going, as many as 6-7 were gone. As it got closer to the 4.11 Joseph Addai was still on the board and a QB I really like because of the schedule in Phillip Rivers. Also Gates got plucked early 4th so I knew if I wanted a top tier TE the times was very soon. At the 4.11 I mulled over Addai, Rivers, Clark and Finley. I love Finley and I had Wayne already but having a lot of Indy players is never a bad thing. I looked at my DD software and realized the guy behind me already had 2 RBs, a QB and no WRs so I figured I could still get Addai in the 5th and if I grabbed Finley now instead of Addai I could assume I wouldn't have to roll Wayne/Clark/Addai every week although as I said that is not the end of the world by any means. So I take Finley, turn takes Dallas Clark, he posted he wanted Finley and then he takes his 1st WR(Ocho) which I expected him to do. And so Addai falls to me at the 5.02 vs taking Grant at the 2.11, so far I am happy but I don't have a QB yet.
10 teams have QBs when it gets back to me at the 6.11 and while I wanted to take a QB I also saw some real value at the WR/RB positions and felt like it was a good time to start adding in flex guys for my rosters and also to give me a couple match up options for the season. I did want to grab a QB but Cutler and Kolb were both still on the board and because of ho hum preseason stats they have started to fall as they have in other drafts I was drafting in the past week to 10 days. With short rosters and the fact 10 of the 12 teams all had QBs I felt I could gamble and wait till the 8.11 pick to grab my 1st QB. It was a risk and I sort of felt like some owners might start taking their 2nd QB but if I wanted to have something close to the perfect draft I needed to wait and trust in the tools and info I had at my disposal. So at the 6.11/7.02 turn I took a couple guys I don't normally scoop up but felt like they were value and picked Michael Crabtree and then Reggie Bush. I also switched gears and allowed myself the option of now taking 2 QBs if I need to in order to play match ups.
My plan worked although a couple teams grabbed 2nd QBs, guys like Flacco which I would have loved to have grabbed to go with someone else on the 8.11/9.02 turn but unbelievably Kevin Kolb fell to me at the 8.11. I have not given up on him and have taken him in the 5th of some drafts earlier in the summer so I felt like I got good value again. I should have taken my QB2 in the 9th and I should have been more alert of Big Ben to give me a stud to work with the 2nd half of the season but I didn't. Instead I took Marion Barber at the 9.02 to give me a stable of 4 RBs that I was happy with. I think if I had taken Ben I really would have thought I had the perfect draft but I passed on him and he was scooped up a couple picks later. This was probably my biggest mistake.
Guys started taking Defenses and PKs to my amazement. With such short rosters and with at least 16 defenses likely on the WW each week and the same for PKs, I felt no need to try and grab anything to fill those spots before the 13th and 14th round. So I had the 10th, 11th, and 12th left to round out my RBs and WRs but I did manage to sneak a 2nd QB in there too. 10.11-Jabar Gaffney, 11.02-Matt Stafford, 12.11-Louis Murphy. I finally took San Diego at the 13.02 and went with Neil Rackers at the 14.11 mostly because they are playing Indy week 1 and it should be fireworks. I plan on switching these 2 positions a lot during the year but San Diego plays nobody until about week 7 or 8.
So the roster looks like this…
QB-K.Kolb, M.Stafford-being honest I am leery as neither has a lot of experience in the NFL but there are still guys on the WW I can pick up if both of these guys bomb.
RB-ADP, Addai, Bush, Barber
WR-Wayne, Austin, Crabtree, Gaffney, Murphy
TE-Finley
Def-San Diego
PK-Rackers
I feel I got solid value throughout the draft and I used the DD software a couple times in order to maximize value in the sweet spot rounds when others were trying to find players at positions I already had filled. Is it the perfect draft? Debatable to say the least, perhaps terrible to some folks but I feel confident I can compete for a playoff spot and it used a few of the things we have all discussed in here.
In shark leagues you can't always use the tools you have to their max but outside of the shark leagues you play in have you found the "perfect draft" theories and DD software tools give you enough to feel like you are going to crush everyone when you leave the draft? If you can share specific moments about either or recent drafts I would love to read them.
Thanks,
MOP
A few weeks back the owner of the coffee shop I frequent down in Little Havana tells me he is running a fantasy football league this year and there might be a couple openings. He knows I like to sit in there and blog/post on the message boards here but I don't think he really knew how big a fan I really am or just how deep I like to get into fantasy football. I have been trying to find a local league and although this one is still an internet league, all the owners are locals including a couple police officers, teachers, you know regular people. It wasn't a cheap league and its pretty much winner takes all but I said sure I would love to join.
Now the Commish was not very good at getting me a lot of info. Just said the scoring was on the yahoo site, etc…and that system took me a little bit to get used to as I am always an MFL or RTS guy. I looked at the scoring and the rules, one of the most important things you should always do and I see a few things that made me think of how I was going to strategize. This is not a best ball league which is what I am used to so I had to focus more on individual players over platoons filling out certain slots. Also there were only 14 roster slots and you had to field a QB/2RBs/2WRs/Flex(WR/RB)/TE/Def/PK…9 starters and only 5 more slots…like Gene Hackman says in Hoosiers it's gonna be a lonely bench. .5 PPR, and 4Pts pass TDs, rest was pretty standard 1pt/20pass/10rush/10rec, 6 pts all other TDs but for some reason PKs only get .5pt for XP and 1-2 pts on short FG, 3 for anything 40+, 4 for 50+ so in DD for example they total something like 70-75 for the year and that's the elite PKs. So I knew for sure I wasn't going to take a PK till the 14th round no matter what. Also I wanted to only have 1 QB, 1TE(can't flex them), 1 Def. 1PK, leave 10 spots for the WRs and RBs. That was my plan and also because it was only 4 pts for pass TDs I wanted to be the last owner to take a QB unless some serious value fell my way.
I don't know if any of you have ever used Yahoo but you don't get your draft position until about 30 minutes before the draft. Still because I have done 15-20 of these already I knew with the DD software at home I could have time to load everything and not stress. I ended up with the #2 pick and to be honest I usually don't draft in the top of these things. Much more comfortable going WR/WR at the end of the 1st and drafting from that point on. But I go the #2 slot and I didn't think twice about grabbing Adrian Peterson.
Now this had a variety of owners and level of expertise to it but 3 QBs went in the 1st and only AJ went at WR. About the middle of the 2nd round I honestly thought I might get Calvin or Randy Moss but they went the last 2 picks before it was my turn. Still a decent tandem at WR could be had on the 2/3 turn and I thought hard about Ryan Grant as well. Many in here have singing his praises. I could have had him at the 2.11 but I passed and the owner behind me took him and Romo on the 2/3 turn. Even though the RBs were flying off the board I could tell these guys were trying for flash over substance. I felt I could perhaps steal Joseph Addai at the 4.11 and I feel he and Grant are similar in production. The DD software was showing WR was the right place to grab value so I scooped up Reggie Wayne at the 2.11 and Miles Austin at the 3.02, I felt the two of them filled up my starting WRs nicely.
So now the waiting game begins and in these early round s every pick hurts a little but lots and lots of WRs were coming off the board which didn't bother me a bit and QBs were still going, as many as 6-7 were gone. As it got closer to the 4.11 Joseph Addai was still on the board and a QB I really like because of the schedule in Phillip Rivers. Also Gates got plucked early 4th so I knew if I wanted a top tier TE the times was very soon. At the 4.11 I mulled over Addai, Rivers, Clark and Finley. I love Finley and I had Wayne already but having a lot of Indy players is never a bad thing. I looked at my DD software and realized the guy behind me already had 2 RBs, a QB and no WRs so I figured I could still get Addai in the 5th and if I grabbed Finley now instead of Addai I could assume I wouldn't have to roll Wayne/Clark/Addai every week although as I said that is not the end of the world by any means. So I take Finley, turn takes Dallas Clark, he posted he wanted Finley and then he takes his 1st WR(Ocho) which I expected him to do. And so Addai falls to me at the 5.02 vs taking Grant at the 2.11, so far I am happy but I don't have a QB yet.
10 teams have QBs when it gets back to me at the 6.11 and while I wanted to take a QB I also saw some real value at the WR/RB positions and felt like it was a good time to start adding in flex guys for my rosters and also to give me a couple match up options for the season. I did want to grab a QB but Cutler and Kolb were both still on the board and because of ho hum preseason stats they have started to fall as they have in other drafts I was drafting in the past week to 10 days. With short rosters and the fact 10 of the 12 teams all had QBs I felt I could gamble and wait till the 8.11 pick to grab my 1st QB. It was a risk and I sort of felt like some owners might start taking their 2nd QB but if I wanted to have something close to the perfect draft I needed to wait and trust in the tools and info I had at my disposal. So at the 6.11/7.02 turn I took a couple guys I don't normally scoop up but felt like they were value and picked Michael Crabtree and then Reggie Bush. I also switched gears and allowed myself the option of now taking 2 QBs if I need to in order to play match ups.
My plan worked although a couple teams grabbed 2nd QBs, guys like Flacco which I would have loved to have grabbed to go with someone else on the 8.11/9.02 turn but unbelievably Kevin Kolb fell to me at the 8.11. I have not given up on him and have taken him in the 5th of some drafts earlier in the summer so I felt like I got good value again. I should have taken my QB2 in the 9th and I should have been more alert of Big Ben to give me a stud to work with the 2nd half of the season but I didn't. Instead I took Marion Barber at the 9.02 to give me a stable of 4 RBs that I was happy with. I think if I had taken Ben I really would have thought I had the perfect draft but I passed on him and he was scooped up a couple picks later. This was probably my biggest mistake.
Guys started taking Defenses and PKs to my amazement. With such short rosters and with at least 16 defenses likely on the WW each week and the same for PKs, I felt no need to try and grab anything to fill those spots before the 13th and 14th round. So I had the 10th, 11th, and 12th left to round out my RBs and WRs but I did manage to sneak a 2nd QB in there too. 10.11-Jabar Gaffney, 11.02-Matt Stafford, 12.11-Louis Murphy. I finally took San Diego at the 13.02 and went with Neil Rackers at the 14.11 mostly because they are playing Indy week 1 and it should be fireworks. I plan on switching these 2 positions a lot during the year but San Diego plays nobody until about week 7 or 8.
So the roster looks like this…
QB-K.Kolb, M.Stafford-being honest I am leery as neither has a lot of experience in the NFL but there are still guys on the WW I can pick up if both of these guys bomb.
RB-ADP, Addai, Bush, Barber
WR-Wayne, Austin, Crabtree, Gaffney, Murphy
TE-Finley
Def-San Diego
PK-Rackers
I feel I got solid value throughout the draft and I used the DD software a couple times in order to maximize value in the sweet spot rounds when others were trying to find players at positions I already had filled. Is it the perfect draft? Debatable to say the least, perhaps terrible to some folks but I feel confident I can compete for a playoff spot and it used a few of the things we have all discussed in here.
In shark leagues you can't always use the tools you have to their max but outside of the shark leagues you play in have you found the "perfect draft" theories and DD software tools give you enough to feel like you are going to crush everyone when you leave the draft? If you can share specific moments about either or recent drafts I would love to read them.
Thanks,
MOP
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