The RB "Dead Zone" - Myth or Method? (1 Viewer)

[-jb-]

I've been hearing this phrase used quite a bit lately. Certainly not a new concept, but a nice term. Specifically, it's referring to rounds 3-6, though the window fluctuates by who you ask. The talking points:

• RBs drafted in these rounds have been historically volatile, leading to a less than 50% chance that they meet or exceed expectations
  
• RBs drafted in these rounds have limited upside
  
• Avoid this dead zone by either:
  
  drafting RB/RB (I don't think this works particularly well from an early draft slot, unless someone falls)
  
• drafting RB, then loading up at other positions during these rounds with a plan to stockpile less expensive RBs in the later rounds to heighten your chances of hitting
  

Yes, of course, be water. Watch your league mates behavior. Let the draft come to you. Focus on value. Yet, these catch phrases are often based in historic trends that can provide insight as to where that value is. Additionally, pre-draft/season value is PERCEIVED. No one really knows what will happen.

For the purpose of this discussion, here are the RBs that fall in the "dead zone," based on current 12 team 1/2ppr ADP:

Round 3

• Dobbins
  
• CEH
  
• Jacobs
  
• Sanders
  
• Swift
  
• Montgomery
  
• Carson
  

Round 4

• Gaskin
  

Round 5

• Hunt
  

Round 6

• Edmonds
  
• Davis
  
• Mostert
  
• Javonte
  
• Rojo
  
• Gordon
  

Note: I think we can expect to see Henderson in this range, once ADP normalizes

My thoughts:

• I've done some mocks (which I acknowledge have inherent faults) and do feel/look better when I draft some combination of RB+WR/TE in the first two rounds, then stocking up on WRs during rounds 3-4.
  
• Where I differ from the standard theory is on the window size. At least for this year, I think round 6 offers some upside in Javonte and Mostert.
  
• Carson is perennially undervalued to me.
  
• I think Davis can be an RB2 almost by accident.
  

What say you?

Resources (a number of these refer to best ball, but I don't think it matters):

https://establishtherun.com/miller-the-running-back-dead-zone/

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/07/running-back-dead-zone-players-to-avoid-2021-fantasy-football/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/rb-dead-zone-game-theory/

https://www.yahoo.com/now/handle-running-back-dead-zone-134838617.html

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-draft-prep-the-running-back-dead-zone/

 

[Gally]

I actually like a lot of the RB's listed in the 3rd (Sanders, Swift, Carson, Montgomery particularly).  I think all of them have the potential to be top 10 RB's and outproduce their draft spot.  

 

[menobrown]

I've heard it, know what it means, not sure how they arrived at their data but put me down as saying it's a myth.

If their data is historical or just based on last year the flaw in the approach from were I'm sitting is we just wrapped up a great RB class and that puts in an era with two all time RB classes still in their prime. 2017 and 2020 and that's creating some solid RB depth as of right now pushing some good RB's back.  So to me those options, particularly through at least round 4 but often through round 5 are league winning options IMO. Round 6 depending on draft might get a little dicier.

 

[-jb-]

I've heard it, know what it means, not sure how they arrived at their data but put me down as saying it's a myth.

If their data is historical or just based on last year the flaw in the approach from were I'm sitting is we just wrapped up a great RB class and that puts in an era with two all time RB classes still in their prime. 2017 and 2020 and that's creating some solid RB depth as of right now pushing some good RB's back.  So to me those options, particularly through at least round 4 but often through round 5 are league winning options IMO. Round 6 depending on draft might get a little dicier.

Have a look at the first resource. Data from the last six years. To your point, two strong draft classes can certainly impact that. One thing to note is that the average amount of RBs drafted in rounds 1 & 2 has gone up significantly this year compared to years past.

 

[menobrown]

Have a look at the first resource. Data from the last six years. To your point, two strong draft classes can certainly impact that. One thing to note is that the average amount of RBs drafted in rounds 1 & 2 has gone up significantly this year compared to years past.

Don't agree with the theory, even with more RB's going in first two rounds. Similar to the zero RB theory which got super popluar a few years ago and took a slight fade the last year or so I've found going against these theories has been a boon to me.  Saying that I hope everyone loves this theory and tries to follow it.

 

[TripItUp]

I'm considering/drafting all of the bolded players, staying away from the players that are crossed out.  In general, players should be evaluated on a case by case basis and believing in "dead zones" is bad for your ff health.

Round 3

Dobbins

CEH

Jacobs

Sanders

Swift

Montgomery

Carson

Round 4

Gaskin

Round 5

Hunt

Round 6

Edmonds

Davis

Mostert

Javonte

Rojo

Gordon

 

[Payne]

Am I the only one who thinks Dobbins and CEH could be league winners? 

 

[TripItUp]

Am I the only one who thinks Dobbins and CEH could be league winners? 

Nope, Dobbins moreso for me though.

 

[-jb-]

@TripItUp I agree with your bolded players, with the exception of Dobbins. He's super talented but in a ####ty situation. They don't pass to their RBs, and Lamar takes a bunch of rushes. 

 

[TripItUp]

@TripItUp I agree with your bolded players, with the exception of Dobbins. He's super talented but in a ####ty situation. They don't pass to their RBs, and Lamar takes a bunch of rushes. 

He gets at least some of Ingram's TDs now and is one of the most explosive runners in the game.  I love me some Dobbins.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s not about where you take them, it’s about who you take. 

i’m gonna say it’s a myth.

 

[-jb-]

It’s not about where you take them, it’s about who you take. 

i’m gonna say it’s a myth.

So who are your guys on that list?

 

[menobrown]

Am I the only one who thinks Dobbins and CEH could be league winners? 

I'll put it this way, you can win a lot of leagues with one of these two as your RB1 which would mean you probably paired with them two elite WR's or an elite WR/TE.

 

[-jb-]

He gets at least some of Ingram's TDs now and is one of the most explosive runners in the game.  I love me some Dobbins.

He might even get both of them. 

 

[greenmountaingoat]

With Dobbins, you're really chasing efficiency and hoping that TD regression is a myth and doesn't happen. I'm in a PPR league.

Gus just got PAID. Everybody loves Dobbin's talent. But is your theory that his pass pro was such a work in progress that they limited him more than they will this coming year?

Dobbins- carries per week last 5 weeks of the season- 11,13,14,11,13 with ONE reception during his final 3 games. And yet his ppr avg was 16.64 ppg.

TDs per week last 5 weeks of the season- 6.

If you think he's going to average 12 carries and less than one catch per game, which is how he was used last year. You better be getting those TD's brother. 

 

[greenmountaingoat]

On top of that, I think that they want Lamar to pass more. I'm a little high on Bateman. 

 

[TripItUp]

If you think he's going to average 12 carries and less than one catch per game, which is how he was used last year. You better be getting those TD's brother. 

he was a rookie last year with Ingram on the roster.  Increased touches are a foregone conclusion.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He gets at least some of Ingram's TDs now and is one of the most explosive runners in the game.  I love me some Dobbins.

They could go to Edwards - I think Dobbins is pretty talented but the staff seems to love using multiple backs (and Gus is a pretty tough runner) - on top of Jackson getting significant carries as well.

 

[tangfoot]

he was a rookie last year with Ingram on the roster.  Increased touches are a foregone conclusion.

While Ingram was on the roster, he was not really on the field. He only had 72 carries on the season, and 22 total in the final 10 weeks of the season, 9 of which game in Week 17.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

he was a rookie last year with Ingram on the roster.  Increased touches are a foregone conclusion.

Same 5 last games:

Edwards carries- 9,7,7,9,15,12 with 6 catches

Ingram carries- 6,0,0,0,9 with 1 catch. 

So you think that those additional 3 touches per game will go to Dobbins or maybe 2/1 Dobbins so projecting 14 rushes, less than one catch and 5.1 ypc  = 75y/gm with maybe a catch and .75 TD. That's a 13-14 point ppr average. Which seems great for your mid to late 4th rounder but he's going at the end of the third.

 

[LawFitz]

As I look at the ADP board this year, I'm leaning toward grabbing an RB1 name early that I feel I can trust, and then either swinging for one of these mid-range RBs for my RB2 slot, or ignoring my RB2 position altogether until much later and loading up on a bunch of upside names I like late to try to unearth a startable RB2 as the season unfolds. I've found over the years there's always enough RB attrition to find a startable RB2 down the line. But if that slot is going to be a sinkhole for some period, you better have a rock solid RB1.

I would be nervous heading into the season with any of these mid-round names as my RB1 - if caught between runs and forced to do that, I'd lean CEH, Jacobs or Sanders.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

At a certain point there will be a definite drop off, that's when you start drafting all your other main positions.  Later in the draft you can stab at a few bench RBs and hope one of them rises up through the year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So who are your guys on that list?

My guys that I like or my players to avoid? 

It’s hard to say - depends on what value slips to me in a snake format, and what my expectations for that player are. 

For example, I like Montgomery, but not at his current ADP. If he fell 1/2 a round late to me & I went WR-heavy I’d absolutely take him. But I’d do so with the expectation that he’s more of an RB2-3, whereas I’ve seen a lot of talk that he’s a bargain & potential RB1-level player. IMO there’s more competition for carries this year & he had an easy schedule to finish the season.  that doesn’t make him a DND, just a guy I’m fading a bit. 

Sanders is a guy who’s flashed talent enough that everyone thought he’d be the new Brian Westbrook. But IMO the volume won’t be there & Philly will be a RBBC. Plus Hurts is no lock to play at an elevated level. Add in Sanders inability to stay healthy & he’s a hard pass for me in just about any round. 

I like Dobbins - I think he’s being devalued because of his QB & the ravens inclination to go RBBC, but I see that as a 65-35 split with Gus, and Dobbins should be a fine RB2, or RB1 for a team going WR-heavy.

Carson is another guy getting undervalued a bit. They could have let him walk, but had so little faith in the players behind him they brought him back. And they have so little confidence in Penny/Homer that they brought in Alex Collins who hadn’t played in a couple seasons. He’s likely to have legit low-end RB1 numbers across the board & he’s a bargain at his current ADP.

CEH could finish top 5 RB with that  improved OL & with his usage as a receiver. he’s going end of 2nd, mid-3rd? And his handcuff is cheap. 

Jacobs is yet another back that I think has taken too much of a hit with the signing of Drake. IMO Jacobs shouldn’t do any worse than last year - unless the revamped OL stinks. Granted, it’s a possibility, but he’s another early to mid 3rd round guy who should at least pay off as a fair value there. 

I love Swift, but I hate the Lions. Their mediocre offense & likely negative game scripts keep me off the Swift boat. (See what I did there?) love the player, hate the game sorta thing.

Gaslin is a likely bust IMO. He may lose the job at some point. I haven’t seen enough for me to think, “wow, this kid is special” - granted, there’s a possibility he sticks at it, but I give that a ~35% chance. that and same concerns about MIA offense. They didn’t bring in Fuller & draft a WR high to run the ball a ton. And Tua might just be a bust as well. time will tell, but it can do so on someone else’s roster. 

Hunt is tricky - he’s the 1B in that offense & the only RB signed beyond this year. And he’s going to be a tremendous receiver out of the backfield. I think he’s fair value where he’s being drafted & should pay off at that price with a chance for more if Chubb misses any time. 

Chase Edmonds is a tougher call.  I traded for him as I needed another RB/O-Flex, but I give him a 60-40 chance of success. He certainly won’t be worse than what we’ve seen, and Conner isn’t  lock to play more than 5-6 games, so the volume could be there. It sounds like AZ wants to lean on him. I think he’s got a chance to be about as valuable as Hunt, but like, if Hunt only had 4 TDs.

I like Henderson slight more than Edmonds, because he’s in a slightly more predictable role. He’s going to be featured in LAR & injury risk is the only big concern. He should also be a relative bargain at his ADP.

Mostert & Javonte are guys I’ll only draft if I’m absolutely certain I’ll be able to get Sermon & Gordon, respectively. I hate spending 2 picks for 1 roster spot, but worst case scenario all 4 are flex-worthy (though I expect one back to win the starter job in both scenarios). I’d say Mostert has the biggest bust potential of the 4. He’s older & has an extensive injury history. I could see Denver go RBBC all season, too. So theoretically the biggest upside of the 4 is Sermon who can be had 2-3 rounds after Mostert (and Gordon/Williams) 

I’m avoiding Davis. He has bust written all over him. That said, he’ll likely be RB3/flex worthy all year, but I think he played out over his skis in CAR. He’s still not a special RB, just one with opportunity. And I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons siphoned carries to Ollison, who’s reportedly looked really good this offseason. 

RoJo is a guy l’d want if I had Fournette too (who should be listed above), like the scenarios above. If they all stay healthy,, all 3 of RoJo, Fournette & Bernard should have a decent enough weekly floor, but it’s a RBBC from hell. Whoever gets the TD that week is your weekly winner. Hard to trust. 

So as stand-alone players, Gordon/Williams/Mostert & RoJo are more likely to bust, IMO.  But if the value is there when I’m picking, I won’t hesitate to grab one or several of these guys because there’s a chance at a jackpot if their PT increases due to injury or ineffectiveness. 

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

Give me a combination of 2 from Carson/Montgomery/Sanders/Gaskin/Davis after going Kelce/Mahommes and I will be more than happy. Plenty of wr to be had after round 4 but you need 2 RB in the first 4 rounds. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As I look at the ADP board this year, I'm leaning toward grabbing an RB1 name early that I feel I can trust, and then either swinging for one of these mid-range RBs for my RB2 slot, or ignoring my RB2 position altogether until much later and loading up on a bunch of upside names I like late to try to unearth a startable RB2 as the season unfolds. I've found over the years there's always enough RB attrition to find a startable RB2 down the line. But if that slot is going to be a sinkhole for some period, you better have a rock solid RB1.

I would be nervous heading into the season with any of these mid-round names as my RB1 - if caught between runs and forced to do that, I'd lean CEH, Jacobs or Sanders.

In mocking, this has been the strategy that’s paid off the best so far. At 12 a duo of Ridley/AJones, or AJB/Taylor.

At the 11-12 spot I’ve also had nice drafts going WR-WR-CEH-TE & then collected whichever of the guys listed above slide to the 5-6 rounds. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

At a certain point there will be a definite drop off, that's when you start drafting all your other main positions.  Later in the draft you can stab at a few bench RBs and hope one of them rises up through the year.

every draft is different, you have to let it come to you, but in general I like to pivot and start taking WRs rounds 4-7 (we start 3 WR + FL.) I like a lot of the WRs in those rounds, and not so much the RBs.

grab 3-4 more RBs in the middle rounds, mostly timeshares, satellite pass catchers, or handcuffs, and hope one of them hits. quite often that strategy does yield 1-2 decent RB2s.

I actually feel like the RB 33-45 guys have just about an equal shot of hitting as most of the RBs going 20-32. full PPR so don't need many rush attempts or GL carries to be relevant.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

every draft is different, you have to let it come to you, but in general I like to pivot and start taking WRs rounds 4-7 (we start 3 WR + FL.) I like a lot of the WRs in those rounds, and not so much the RBs.

grab 3-4 more RBs in the middle rounds, mostly timeshares, satellite pass catchers, or handcuffs, and hope one of them hits. quite often that strategy does yield 1-2 decent RB2s.

I actually feel like the RB 33-45 guys have just about an equal shot of hitting as most of the RBs going 20-32. full PPR so don't need many rush attempts or GL carries to be relevant.

in theory I’m like you - there are several WRs I like in those rounds. But over the years in my long-standing redraft league, I find that my league mates also like those same players, so I have a higher miss-rate.

Which is why I try to land at least 1 elite WR, if not 2 in the early rounds.

Then I can load up everywhere else, and hope I can snag at least one of the guys I want as a WR3.

 

[woodstock]

"Myth," because player age has played such a large role in the analysis and we're seeing guys under 25 or so slipping into these rounds. The "Dead Zone" isn't really applicable to running backs that are the ages that are seeing the Dead Zone rounds this year. I won't credit myself with coming up with that. Josh Larky of Rotounderworld studied the Dead Zone backs and found that most years prior, these weren't young backs, but were older and already declining. 

Give me CEH, Swift, Montgomery, and some of the others in those rounds all day. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Am I the only one who thinks Dobbins and CEH could be league winners? 

with ya. 

 

[wgoldsph]

Am I the only one who thinks Dobbins and CEH could be league winners? 

I'm banking on it pretty much.   Traded away a year of Mixon (plus picks) for four years of Dobbins and drafted CEH no 1 last year.  I'm not sure about CEH (although he's got every advange an rb can hope for) but I'm banking on Dobbins continuing to play up to the level he did at the end of last season.

All that said I'm rounding out my rbs with Hunt as well so I better hope it's a myth.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

All that said I'm rounding out my rbs with Hunt as well so I better hope it's a myth.

of all the players from Hunt down on that list (and even a couple above him) Hunt seems like the guy with the safest floor. ~200 carries / 40+ receptions? Yeah. You’ll be fine. 

 

[Tanner9919]

thanks for this list, OP. You mention that Henderson is probably a 6th round guy? wow if you can get DH in the 6th, that's a STEAL! I'd take him in the third the latest. bell cow , 3-down RB in a run first offense with no competition, no vet recently signed to replace Cam, terrific O-line, top notch QB who is considerably better than the driftwood QB they had last year. I don't get why people are somewhat down on DH as a starter in 2021. Henderson's ADP is not going to normalize, he's going to shoot up draft boards. His is the best situation of almost any RB from let's say RB 8-14.

CEH stumbled his way through 2020, I'm not a believer , don't like him in the 3rd. Did the bucs lay the blueprint to beat KC , or at least stifle their offense? isn't it about time when Reed's shine starts to wear off like what happened in Philly, where the offense became stagnant, play calling was off, and the team was spiraling down to mediocrity and .500 sesasons? 3rd round seems very high for a guy who looked like an average-joe out there.

Would you rather take top WRs/TEs/QBs in the 3rd, or take a bum off the list you have ( Sanders, Jacobs, etc)? Are we really considering Monty as a legit RB , 3rd round pick?! based on games against high school defense at the end of last season, why do  we dismiss his ineptitude the first half of 2020? rosey colored glasses, anyone?! Swift?! seriously?  If I'm looking at these guys as the best available RBs in round 3, I'm picking another position, none of these guys are stand outs, I'd rather grab Tannehill or J Herbert, or Waller if available. 

You're about 4 rounds too late on Javonte Williams - in no way would he still be available in round 6 ( at least he shouldn't be anyways). this guy is another league winner type selection. sometimes you have to reach for a player. I don't necessarily like denver but watching film of this guy, you can see how good he really is. excellent footwork, tackle breaking hammer - with excellent hands.

Your list is missing another potential league winner guy - AJ Dillon. 

 

[-jb-]

thanks for this list, OP. You mention that Henderson is probably a 6th round guy? wow if you can get DH in the 6th, that's a STEAL! I'd take him in the third the latest. bell cow , 3-down RB in a run first offense with no competition, no vet recently signed to replace Cam, terrific O-line, top notch QB who is considerably better than the driftwood QB they had last year. I don't get why people are somewhat down on DH as a starter in 2021. Henderson's ADP is not going to normalize, he's going to shoot up draft boards. His is the best situation of almost any RB from let's say RB 8-14.

CEH stumbled his way through 2020, I'm not a believer , don't like him in the 3rd. Did the bucs lay the blueprint to beat KC , or at least stifle their offense? isn't it about time when Reed's shine starts to wear off like what happened in Philly, where the offense became stagnant, play calling was off, and the team was spiraling down to mediocrity and .500 sesasons? 3rd round seems very high for a guy who looked like an average-joe out there.

Would you rather take top WRs/TEs/QBs in the 3rd, or take a bum off the list you have ( Sanders, Jacobs, etc)? Are we really considering Monty as a legit RB , 3rd round pick?! based on games against high school defense at the end of last season, why do  we dismiss his ineptitude the first half of 2020? rosey colored glasses, anyone?! Swift?! seriously?  If I'm looking at these guys as the best available RBs in round 3, I'm picking another position, none of these guys are stand outs, I'd rather grab Tannehill or J Herbert, or Waller if available. 

You're about 4 rounds too late on Javonte Williams - in no way would he still be available in round 6 ( at least he shouldn't be anyways). this guy is another league winner type selection. sometimes you have to reach for a player. I don't necessarily like denver but watching film of this guy, you can see how good he really is. excellent footwork, tackle breaking hammer - with excellent hands.

Your list is missing another potential league winner guy - AJ Dillon. 

You're welcome.

• Regarding Henderson, no. I meant that he will likely be moving into this zone. My assumption is round 3, and that's where I'd place him (late third).
  
• Regarding Javonte, his current ADP is 66 in 1/2ppr. If he flashes in preseason/camp, it would likely move up - but I doubt higher than fourth round.
  
• AJD's ADP is 91 (RB37), so way far out of this zone.
  

 

[-jb-]

"Myth," because player age has played such a large role in the analysis and we're seeing guys under 25 or so slipping into these rounds. The "Dead Zone" isn't really applicable to running backs that are the ages that are seeing the Dead Zone rounds this year. I won't credit myself with coming up with that. Josh Larky of Rotounderworld studied the Dead Zone backs and found that most years prior, these weren't young backs, but were older and already declining. 

Give me CEH, Swift, Montgomery, and some of the others in those rounds all day. 

Yup. Third link in the resource section goes through this, albeit poorly formatted. Here is the Josh Larky soundcloud for those interested. Go to 6:55. He spends the first 7ish minutes rosterbating about something he did in a best ball draft.