The Running Back Position (1 Viewer)

[Spiderman]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....

If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.

***

- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.

- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.

- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?

- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.

- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?

- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...

- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?

- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.

- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?

- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?

- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??

- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???

- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?

- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....

- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.

***

Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

 

[ceo3west]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.***- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.***Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

Not sure what the true definition of "breakout" is, but to me, it will be guys not listed in the preseason top 10 that end up there. History shows that 4-5 RB's not expected to be in the top 10 will end up there. Here are a few I like as possibilities:C. Benson - solid O-line, feature back in a ball-control offense. Only question is if he stays healthy, I think he does.R. Bush - if you're telling me that McAllister stays healthy and puts together the kind of season he did last year, Im a monkey's uncle. Bush's role will increase and his second half of 07 is a big sign of things to come.T. Henry - Denver didn't give this guy $12M guaranteed to be splitting with Mike Bell. He is talented and will be back in the top 10.W. McGahee - I know, 3.7 ypc, lousy year last year, blah blah blah. Call it a feeling, but I think he puts it together this year on this very talented team.C. Portis - He's healthy again, and is a top 5 RB when he is. The only thing hurting him is Betts, but he's another guy I can't see with the same or better stats than last year. I think Portis gets back to respectability and possibly a reappearance int he top 10.

 

[Restricted]

I'll be heavily watching Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber III and Jerious Norwood this preseason.

 

[g5jamz]

I'm going to be looking at Lynch in the later rounds for value...and hopefully a diamond in the rough. Norwood as well.

 

[Cenobite]

Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

You don't consider taking "a" Peyton Manning - your only QB consideration is taking Peyton Manning. However, the 6-10 hole is too early for me to consider taking Manning. Depending on your leagues rules (PPR v. non, TD heavy, performance bonuses, etc.) there are still plenty of RBs who can jump into the top 5. As to which RB will step it up? Addai, Benson, T. Henry, T. Jones, Maroney, Portis, D. Williams, Norwood, B. Jacobs, should all perform better than last year barring injury.

 

[gianmarco]

I don't think Alexander is a consensus top 5 by any stretch.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I don't think Alexander is a consensus top 5 by any stretch.

I agree, the consensus should probably end at #4.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I don't think Alexander is a consensus top 5 by any stretch.

I agree; I think more people have Addai or Westbrook in there than Alexander. Consesus is closer to a top three: Tomlinson/Jackson/Johnson...maybe Gore in a top 4. (Sorry for the rhyme )

 

[ceo3west]

I don't think Alexander is a consensus top 5 by any stretch.

I agree, the consensus should probably end at #4.

Alexander won't be on my squad this year, and I think anyone who takes him top 5 is out of their mind. He's at the age where RB's start to decline, and I'll take the guy on the upswing anyday. I'd feel much better with a guy like Addai or Parker.

 

[Ilov80s]

Rudi, Addai, Henry, Parker and Westbrook make up the next tier IMO.

 

[gianmarco]

Rudi, Addai, Henry, Parker and Westbrook make up the next tier IMO.

I love me some Henry this year. Lowest guy ranked with the most potential to break the top 5, IMO.

 

[Jayrod]

I don't think Alexander is a consensus top 5 by any stretch.

He is sometimes around 8-9 and he even made it into the 2nd round in one of my 10 team mock drafts. Also, Addai, Westbrook & Parker are pretty much considered top 10 backs right now.As far as who I like to move up to the top 10:Travis Henry - THE Denver running back. Doesn't everyone remember what this means? He might even end up top 5.Maurice Jones-Drew - I've seen all of the nay-sayers on him, but the potential is definitely there. Heck he did it last year in the exact same situation without even getting much action the first few games. He will be a key part of Jacksonville's O all year, so to exclude him from the list of possibles is ridiculous.Reggie Bush - depending on the scoring rules in your league. PPR, he WILL be top 10. Non-ppr, he might be, but definitely needs to be more effective as a rusher.Brandon Jacobs - This man is simply a beast. If he can manage a healthy season and stay the #1 back in NY, he will get the GL chances to be top 10. A better year by Eli and the passing game could also do wonders for Jacobs.DeAngelo Williams - He has the potential to be MJD-lite this year. If Foster goes down with an injury early, I think he moves into the realm of probable top 10.

 

[purestrength]

Twice I've seen Addai picked at No. 3 in WCOFF PPR satellite leagues.

And one of those times wasn't even by me.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Say what you will but whenever Chris Brown plays he's been productive. If he can get those wide open lanes that Travis Henry got while playing with Vince Young I think he could have a pretty good season. All he has to do is stay healthy.

 

[sholditch]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP

1. Addai: Everyone is in love with the Colts offense but this guy is consistently going in the top five in redraft mocks. He's never carried a full load. I think finishing in the top 10 will be a stretch but apparently just about everyone disagrees. I would take the following ahead of him in a heartbeat: LT, LJ, SJ, SA, Westy, Rudi, FWP, Portis, and would readily consider Benson. He basically has to have a perfect season to justify his ADP, so there is very little value in this pick.

2. McGahee: ADP around 10th overall and two seasons removed from a truly consistent, productive one. The Ravens didn't do much to help Lewis last year and I would be surprised if McGahee does much better. I consider him as risky if not more than the following backs: Edge, Benson, Bush, and Maroney

Potential bargains:

1. Cadillac Williams: Everyone is scared to death of this guy and with good reason. After a solid rookie campaign, he basically disappeared along with the rest of the TB offense. I hope that the addition of Pettigout and Garcia will help, and I could easily see Caddy sailing past his draft slot to the tune of 1300 yards and 10+ TDs. The potential is there, and last year's stinker will guarantee you can take him with ease in the fourth, or possibly early fifth.

2. Deuce McAllister: ADP in rounds 4-6, and should remain the primary red zone threat through the middle, and I think the NO offense is good enough to field two productive backs. I like Deuce for another 1100+ yard season with anywhere from 7-13 TDs. Great for a backup or even a RB2 in big leagues, and allows you to snag stud WRs rounds 2-4.

3. Fred Taylor: This guy is dropping off the face of the earth in drafts, often available in rounds 7 or later. he was incredibly productive yardage-wise last year. He averaged 5.0 ypc and had four 100+ yard games. HE won't get many TDs but I fully expect another 1000k + season out of him, which is great value in the seventh for a RB3.

4. D-Will: He's last on the list because I have the least confidence in his floor, which could be as low as 650 yards ru and about 350 rec, and the TDs are a total mystery. But, I absolutely beleive that this kid is a phenomenal talent who will emerge over Foster, like heads and shoulders above, but when it will be I don't know. This year or the next for sure. Problem is DWill's ADP has been creeping up, and if things go as I think they will in Panthers camp then he might even climb into the third-round range. If available in the late-fourth/early fifth he's great value, but I haven't seen him around then since mid-June.

5. Lamont Jordan: I don't like him much, but he does have the role to himself for the first four games at least with Rhodes suspended, so if he has any talent at all he should be able to entrench himself as the starter. He faces two easy Ds at home and two tough ones on the road, so it could go either way, but when you can get a starting back in rounds 9 or later, that's almost always valuable.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Rudi, Addai, Henry, Parker and Westbrook make up the next tier IMO.

The next four.....AddaiWestbrookMaroneyParker

 

[nygiants56]

tier 1:

LJ, LT, S. Jackson, Trav Henry

tier 2:

Rudi

SA

Parker

Addai

tier 3:

Ronnie Brown

Edge

nearly 1/2 of all rb's in the top 10 one season,will not be back there the following season.

some of last years top 10 RB's in rushing , are mentioned above.

I'm removing Gore, Chester Taylor, Westbrook, Barber ( obviously) from the list. Bush doesn't make it, because he's nothing more than a glorified WR, imo..defenses will figure him out..he doesn't run the ball very much, thats why they have Deuece there..

Henry is going to be a top 3 RB by the time its all said and done. Gore has seen his upside , nowhere to go but down, injuries and a new coaching staff are cause for concern. Westbrook's first season rushing over 1,000 yards, might be his last for a while. Not sure McNabb can hold up ,if he can't, Kolb will not carry this team.

Edgerrin James should see a big spike in offensive production,and the coaching staff will lean on him, big time. They play one of the easiest SOS's against the run in 2007, and have MANY offensive weapons to keep defenses on their heels. The final eight games of 2006 is where James really began to get things going, and I think he carries that momentum into 2007 with this new coaching staff that is hell bent on improving the ground game of the Cards. Last season, Henry rushed for 1211 yards, finishing 10th. Edge should get those numbers this year, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Ronnie Brown is a one man show in Miami, the team is WR-challenged, the TE is a bust ( Dave Martin), Ginn has foot problems and is only a rookie, Chambers has one good season to his name.the coaches love to use one RB, and one RB only. Brown, while not as good as advertised when he entered the NFL, has still managing a respectable 4.3 per carry avg. He has great hands, and with a coaching staff that loves to throw to the RB,Brown should easily catch 60-70 balls.

He's one of a small handful of RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, and that alone makes him a top 10 contender..

Fred Taylor is on the wrong side of 31..MJD would easily make the top 10, if Taylor wasn't hanging around,hawking carries..

 

[djcolts]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP

1. Addai: Everyone is in love with the Colts offense but this guy is consistently going in the top five in redraft mocks. He's never carried a full load. I think finishing in the top 10 will be a stretch but apparently just about everyone disagrees. I would take the following ahead of him in a heartbeat: LT, LJ, SJ, SA, Westy, Rudi, FWP, Portis, and would readily consider Benson. He basically has to have a perfect season to justify his ADP, so there is very little value in this pick.

He may be overvauled, but if he finished as the #11 back last season as a part-time player, then why would top 10 be a stretch?

 

[ImTheScientist]

tier 1:

LJ, LT, S. Jackson, Trav Henry

tier 2:

Rudi

SA

Parker

Addai

tier 3:

Ronnie Brown

Edge

nearly 1/2 of all rb's in the top 10 one season,will not be back there the following season.

some of last years top 10 RB's in rushing , are mentioned above.

I'm removing Gore, Chester Taylor, Westbrook, Barber ( obviously) from the list. Bush doesn't make it, because he's nothing more than a glorified WR, imo..defenses will figure him out..he doesn't run the ball very much, thats why they have Deuece there..

Henry is going to be a top 3 RB by the time its all said and done. Gore has seen his upside , nowhere to go but down, injuries and a new coaching staff are cause for concern. Westbrook's first season rushing over 1,000 yards, might be his last for a while. Not sure McNabb can hold up ,if he can't, Kolb will not carry this team.

Edgerrin James should see a big spike in offensive production,and the coaching staff will lean on him, big time. They play one of the easiest SOS's against the run in 2007, and have MANY offensive weapons to keep defenses on their heels. The final eight games of 2006 is where James really began to get things going, and I think he carries that momentum into 2007 with this new coaching staff that is hell bent on improving the ground game of the Cards. Last season, Henry rushed for 1211 yards, finishing 10th. Edge should get those numbers this year, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Ronnie Brown is a one man show in Miami, the team is WR-challenged, the TE is a bust ( Dave Martin), Ginn has foot problems and is only a rookie, Chambers has one good season to his name.the coaches love to use one RB, and one RB only. Brown, while not as good as advertised when he entered the NFL, has still managing a respectable 4.3 per carry avg. He has great hands, and with a coaching staff that loves to throw to the RB,Brown should easily catch 60-70 balls.

He's one of a small handful of RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, and that alone makes him a top 10 contender..

Fred Taylor is on the wrong side of 31..MJD would easily make the top 10, if Taylor wasn't hanging around,hawking carries..

I don't know why people say this....You don't think he can at least repeat his last year numbers and score more TDs??

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago

 

[Pickle Rody]

Not because I own him, but.......Edge has a breakout season. My gut says he will have one helluva year with Zona. Top 5? Maybe, but I doubt it. Top 10? Easily.

Oh, and Alexander will easily be top 10. I would not consider him having a breakout season though. He will just return to normal. 15-16 TD's, 1300 yards are not a stretch.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Cedric Benson = Top 5 running back for the next 3 years.

 

[Colin Dowling]

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago shocking.gif

Henry's lack of a 16 game season has as much to do with suspension and being inactive for Jeff Fisher then injury, so let's toss that out the window. SImilarly, he is in a system that has produced some extraordinary fantasy seasons out of the backfield.

 

[Banger]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP2. McGahee: ADP around 10th overall and two seasons removed from a truly consistent, productive one. The Ravens didn't do much to help Lewis last year and I would be surprised if McGahee does much better. I consider him as risky if not more than the following backs: Edge, Benson, Bush, and Maroney

I posted this previously in the McGahee thread....I've read McGahee's name in a number of threads over the past few weeks in player to avoid/overvalued/ranking threads and a number of people are down on him and I'm having a hard time understanding why. Right now his ADP is RB13 and last year Jamal finished RB16 while averaging 3.6 ypc with 9 td's. I think most people agree that McGahee is an upgrade over Lewis at this point, the Ravens spent 2 1st day draft picks to improve their line (Ogden is back), there's talk of getting McGahee involved in the passing game (which Lewis never was) and he's a lock to get at least 300+ carries if healthy (there's no threat to take carries on the roster). Take the lowball #'s of 300-1170 (3.9 his career avg on Bills) - 8 tds - 200 rcv yards = 185 points which was good for 14th last year (and 7 points away from 10th). If he gets more carries (which is likely), and/or more receiving yards (possible), and/or more TD's (likely) and/or improves on the 3.9 ypc (likely IMO with a better line) he will finish higher. In my opinion he's being drafted at his downside and there are several reasons that he may outperform it making him a very safe value play. I know he's not a popular player for his past work ethic/learning plays/trashing Buffalo/etc but I think people are letting that cloud the very good situation he's in.ETA..McGahee also has the 2nd easiest strength of schedule (accdg to Dodds article) with 6 "easy" opponents and projected to be 15% easier than last year.

 

[Banger]

tier 1:

LJ, LT, S. Jackson, Trav Henry

tier 2:

Rudi

SA

Parker

Addai

tier 3:

Ronnie Brown

Edge

nearly 1/2 of all rb's in the top 10 one season,will not be back there the following season.

some of last years top 10 RB's in rushing , are mentioned above.

I'm removing Gore, Chester Taylor, Westbrook, Barber ( obviously) from the list. Bush doesn't make it, because he's nothing more than a glorified WR, imo..defenses will figure him out..he doesn't run the ball very much, thats why they have Deuece there..

Henry is going to be a top 3 RB by the time its all said and done. Gore has seen his upside , nowhere to go but down, injuries and a new coaching staff are cause for concern. Westbrook's first season rushing over 1,000 yards, might be his last for a while. Not sure McNabb can hold up ,if he can't, Kolb will not carry this team.

Edgerrin James should see a big spike in offensive production,and the coaching staff will lean on him, big time. They play one of the easiest SOS's against the run in 2007, and have MANY offensive weapons to keep defenses on their heels. The final eight games of 2006 is where James really began to get things going, and I think he carries that momentum into 2007 with this new coaching staff that is hell bent on improving the ground game of the Cards. Last season, Henry rushed for 1211 yards, finishing 10th. Edge should get those numbers this year, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Ronnie Brown is a one man show in Miami, the team is WR-challenged, the TE is a bust ( Dave Martin), Ginn has foot problems and is only a rookie, Chambers has one good season to his name.the coaches love to use one RB, and one RB only. Brown, while not as good as advertised when he entered the NFL, has still managing a respectable 4.3 per carry avg. He has great hands, and with a coaching staff that loves to throw to the RB,Brown should easily catch 60-70 balls.

He's one of a small handful of RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, and that alone makes him a top 10 contender..

Fred Taylor is on the wrong side of 31..MJD would easily make the top 10, if Taylor wasn't hanging around,hawking carries..

I don't know why people say this....You don't think he can at least repeat his last year numbers and score more TDs??

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago

When was the last time that Henry played for arguably the best rushing offense in the league? Despite having absolute garbage at the RB position last year (banged up T. Bell and below avg M. Bell) the Bronc's still finished 8th in rushing with 2152-12. In '05 they finished 2nd with 2539-25 and in '04 they were 4th with 2333-13. Henry is better than any back they've had on their roster over the past few years and he's going to be the guy there. Top 10 is a lock IMO if he stays healthy.

 

[ceo3west]

Cedric Benson = Top 5 running back for the next 3 years.

I'd like to beleive this, but top 5 is a stretch. Assuming he can carry the load for a full 16 games, I think top 10 is a real possibility. I just don't see him being this year's Frank Gore though.

 

[Banger]

Cedric Benson = Top 5 running back for the next 3 years.

I'd like to beleive this, but top 5 is a stretch. Assuming he can carry the load for a full 16 games, I think top 10 is a real possibility. I just don't see him being this year's Frank Gore though.

I agree. The ability and opportunity is there for Benson to succeed but my main issue is his running style/lack of vision/injury history. He got dinged/lit up (in the superbowl) on limited carries with his running style, so what's going to happen when he's given the ball 20+ times/game week after week. Will he have to change his bruising style to stay healthy and if so will he be less effective? I would not be surprised at all if he finished top 10 but I would also not be surprised if he finished outside the top 20 due to missing games and battling injuries. He's a classic risk/reward player.

 

[sholditch]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP

1. Addai: Everyone is in love with the Colts offense but this guy is consistently going in the top five in redraft mocks. He's never carried a full load. I think finishing in the top 10 will be a stretch but apparently just about everyone disagrees. I would take the following ahead of him in a heartbeat: LT, LJ, SJ, SA, Westy, Rudi, FWP, Portis, and would readily consider Benson. He basically has to have a perfect season to justify his ADP, so there is very little value in this pick.

He may be overvauled, but if he finished as the #11 back last season as a part-time player, then why would top 10 be a stretch?

Because I think that last year was a rather weak year for running backs. You now have two backs from last year that won't be sharing carries that IMO have potential to finish in the top ten, in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, and Portis should be back to full health, and when healthy he always finishes in the top 10, and the same goes for SA. I mean, if someone who barely cracks 1k rushing and only has 8 total Tds almost cracks the top ten, that says a lot about the competition. I mean, Chester Taylor finished as RB12.No, I think we are in the middle of a major changing of the guard at the RB position. And I think this year the top ten will shake up a lot. I think you can pencil in LT, LJ, SJ, SA and Gore for top ten, but how the rest will shake out could really be interesting. I think the 5-10 spots could include any of the following:

Portis, Maroney, Westy, FWP, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Travis Henry, Addai, Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and some less likely candidates—Adrian Peterson (if wins job), D-Will (ditto), Edge. Last year, Portis was out of the discussion, SA got hurt, Maroney was in a time share, as was Benson, Bush, Thomas Jones, and Henry, and McGahee was with a different team. That's some seriously increased competition with some grizzled vets and guys with tons of potential. I could easily see a resurgence in running back production this year. I mean, last year Betts, a career backup, finished as RB 10. I think it's going to be much harder to crack the top ten with the emergence of last year's class of RBs, and the freeing up of a lot of good backs from injury, RBBC, or bad situations. Addai has a shot, but I don't think you get back into the top ten this year with 1k yards and 8 Tds. I expect his numbers to come up, but I expect the competition to increase even more.

fixed

 

[NOONAN]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP

1. Addai: Everyone is in love with the Colts offense but this guy is consistently going in the top five in redraft mocks. He's never carried a full load. I think finishing in the top 10 will be a stretch but apparently just about everyone disagrees. I would take the following ahead of him in a heartbeat: LT, LJ, SJ, SA, Westy, Rudi, FWP, Portis, and would readily consider Benson. He basically has to have a perfect season to justify his ADP, so there is very little value in this pick.

He may be overvauled, but if he finished as the #11 back last season as a part-time player, then why would top 10 be a stretch?

Because I think that last year was a rather weak year for running backs. You now have two backs from last year that won't be sharing carries that IMO have potential to finish in the top ten, in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, and Portis should be back to full health, and when healthy he always finishes in the top 10, and the same goes for SA. I mean, if someone who barely cracks 1k rushing and only has 8 total Tds almost cracks the top ten, that says a lot about the competition. I mean, Chester Taylor finished as RB12.No, I think we are in the middle of a major changing of the guard at the RB position. And I think this year the top ten will shake up a lot. I think you can pencil in LT, LJ, SJ, SA and Gore for top ten, but how the rest will shake out could really be interesting. I think the 5-10 spots could include any of the following:

Portis, Maroney, Westy, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Travis Henry, Addai, Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and some less likely candidates—Adrian Peterson (if wins job), D-Will (ditto), Edge. Last year, Portis was out of the discussion, SA got hurt, Maroney was in a time share, as was Benson, Bush, Thomas Jones, and Henry, and McGahee was with a different team. That's some seriously increased competition with some grizzled vets and guys with tons of potential. I could easily see a resurgence in running back production this year. I mean, last year Betts, a career backup, finished as RB 10. I think it's going to be much harder to crack the top ten with the emergence of last year's class of RBs, and the freeing up of a lot of good backs from injury, RBBC, or bad situations. Addai has a shot, but I don't think you get back into the top ten this year with 1k yards and 8 Tds. I expect his numbers to come up, but I expect the competition to increase even more.

No FWP or MJD takes away any credibility from your post. Westy and FWP will challenge for top 5. The top 6-15 could be a tight bunch.

 

[sholditch]

Jeez I forget one #######g name...

doesn't change the overall meaning of the post. And I don't consider MJD a threat to finish top ten. I could see it, but I think his TD numbers come way down. Why not consider the overall meaning of the post and, I don't know, CONTRIBUTE to the discussion rather than snipe other people's posts?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Cedric Benson = Top 5 running back for the next 3 years.

While I can see Benson putting up good numbers rushing, I think his lack of receiving/blocking ability will keep him off of the field on 3rd and long, in all likelihood. Wolfe/Hester/Peterson will all be more likely to play on passing downs, which will limit Benson's upside and ability to post top five fantasy numbers.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Cedric Benson = Top 5 running back for the next 3 years.

I'd like to beleive this, but top 5 is a stretch. Assuming he can carry the load for a full 16 games, I think top 10 is a real possibility. I just don't see him being this year's Frank Gore though.

I agree. The ability and opportunity is there for Benson to succeed but my main issue is his running style/lack of vision/injury history. He got dinged/lit up (in the superbowl) on limited carries with his running style, so what's going to happen when he's given the ball 20+ times/game week after week. Will he have to change his bruising style to stay healthy and if so will he be less effective? I would not be surprised at all if he finished top 10 but I would also not be surprised if he finished outside the top 20 due to missing games and battling injuries. He's a classic risk/reward player.

1. Benson has excellent vision and his "running style" leads to more yards after contact then most anyone in recent memory.

2. 20 times a week, week after week is nothing. That's all the guy did at Texas. (Insert incorrect "but that's college!" protestations here)

 

[sholditch]

Colin I hope you're right about Benson, both for the Bears sake and the sake of my dynasty team and redraft hopes. I personally agree.

 

[Tau837]

I think that last year was a rather weak year for running backs. You now have two backs from last year that won't be sharing carries that IMO have potential to finish in the top ten, in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, and Portis should be back to full health, and when healthy he always finishes in the top 10, and the same goes for SA. I mean, if someone who barely cracks 1k rushing and only has 8 total Tds almost cracks the top ten, that says a lot about the competition. I mean, Chester Taylor finished as RB12.

Last year's top 10 (FBG scoring):TomlinsonLarry JohnsonJacksonGoreParkerWestbrookBarberJones-DrewRudi JohnsonBettsI expect Portis to replace Betts. Chances are good that LT, LJ, Jackson, and Gore may each regress somewhat, but they could do that and still easily remain top 10 - Gore had 272 fantasy points last season and RB10 (Betts) had 190. It is hard for me to see compelling reasons for the others to slip. So whatever turnover there will be I would project to happen because of improved performances from other players. Travis Henry is a great candidate, as is Addai. I'm not on the Benson bandwagon, but I can see a case for him. No idea why Thomas Jones is mentioned here, as I think he has zero chance.

 

[Banger]

Cedric Benson = Top 5 running back for the next 3 years.

I'd like to beleive this, but top 5 is a stretch. Assuming he can carry the load for a full 16 games, I think top 10 is a real possibility. I just don't see him being this year's Frank Gore though.

I agree. The ability and opportunity is there for Benson to succeed but my main issue is his running style/lack of vision/injury history. He got dinged/lit up (in the superbowl) on limited carries with his running style, so what's going to happen when he's given the ball 20+ times/game week after week. Will he have to change his bruising style to stay healthy and if so will he be less effective? I would not be surprised at all if he finished top 10 but I would also not be surprised if he finished outside the top 20 due to missing games and battling injuries. He's a classic risk/reward player.

1. Benson has excellent vision and his "running style" leads to more yards after contact then most anyone in recent memory.

2. 20 times a week, week after week is nothing. That's all the guy did at Texas. (Insert incorrect "but that's college!" protestations here)

Spoken like the true Benson Faceoff Upside guy It's easy to say 20 carries is nothing from behind our keyboards but the fact is he's carried the ball 20 in a game ONCE in his pro career. He's also he's had multiple injuries while playing the backup/change of pace role. I guess we'll see.

 

[Traders2001]

I dont buy ths addai hype , he was nt even the best RB on the Colts last season that says a lot .

 

[faux_bear]

In response to the original post, what does one do if they pick late in round 1 (let's say 10th - 12th), and all of the no-brainer RB's have gone before you? It seems to me that we're at the point here where everyone is sort of just arguing over their gut-feelings about who they think will have the better years...Ronnie Brown? Travis Henry? Reggie Bush? Everyone has an opinion but no one really knows for sure.

Right now I'm in a 12 man league where I have the 10th pick, but unfortunately Joseph Addai, Travis Henry, and Laurence Maroney will be kept, so those guys aren't options, and my choices at RB are further limited.

Right now I'm thinking of potentially adopting a strategy that I think might be helpful not just for me, but for a lot of guys picking late in their serpentine drafts and who may be having difficulty sorting out all those RB's in tiers 2 or 3 (or whatever):

Go WR.

not just in round 1 either, but potentially also in round 2.

I'm really thinking that rather than trying to predict which RB to draft late in round 1, just avoid that mess all together and snag 3 to 4 backs in rounds 3 - 7 that may reward you just as nicely as that guy you take late in round 1. Guys like Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Deangelo Williams, Deuce Mac, Fred Taylor, Lamont Jordan, etc. Two of those guys, combined with two of Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and Marvin Harrison, I think can have just as much success as a team that adopts a conventional RB/RB draft approach.

Last year, if you drafted in the second half of round 1, chances are you drafted one of the following guys: Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams, Edgerrin James, or Lamont Jordan...and your team stunk. Personally, I'm going to try to avoid the predictable route of taking whoever the 10th through 12th best RB on my board is, and instead, grab the draft by the horns and go with Steve Smith or Chad Johnson. I will feel much safer with the pick, knowing that these guys WILL produce unless they get hurt, and knowing that there is definite value at RB in the 3rd through 7th rounds of the draft this season. Last year, guys like Addai, Maroney, Fred Taylor, and Deuce Mac proved to be great value at their draft slots, and this year again, we will see the same with similar types of guys.

Anyway, all I'm saying is that I think many of us think it's completely nuts to draft anything but RB in round one, but I do think that deviating from this strategy may be the wise move this year if you're picking in late position and aren't sure how to sort out those question-filled RB's in the second and third tiers.

 

[Phurfur]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP

1. Addai: Everyone is in love with the Colts offense but this guy is consistently going in the top five in redraft mocks. He's never carried a full load. I think finishing in the top 10 will be a stretch but apparently just about everyone disagrees. I would take the following ahead of him in a heartbeat: LT, LJ, SJ, SA, Westy, Rudi, FWP, Portis, and would readily consider Benson. He basically has to have a perfect season to justify his ADP, so there is very little value in this pick.

He may be overvauled, but if he finished as the #11 back last season as a part-time player, then why would top 10 be a stretch?

Because I think that last year was a rather weak year for running backs. You now have two backs from last year that won't be sharing carries that IMO have potential to finish in the top ten, in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, and Portis should be back to full health, and when healthy he always finishes in the top 10, and the same goes for SA. I mean, if someone who barely cracks 1k rushing and only has 8 total Tds almost cracks the top ten, that says a lot about the competition. I mean, Chester Taylor finished as RB12.No, I think we are in the middle of a major changing of the guard at the RB position. And I think this year the top ten will shake up a lot. I think you can pencil in LT, LJ, SJ, SA and Gore for top ten, but how the rest will shake out could really be interesting. I think the 5-10 spots could include any of the following:

Portis, Maroney, Westy, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Travis Henry, Addai, Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and some less likely candidates—Adrian Peterson (if wins job), D-Will (ditto), Edge. Last year, Portis was out of the discussion, SA got hurt, Maroney was in a time share, as was Benson, Bush, Thomas Jones, and Henry, and McGahee was with a different team. That's some seriously increased competition with some grizzled vets and guys with tons of potential. I could easily see a resurgence in running back production this year. I mean, last year Betts, a career backup, finished as RB 10. I think it's going to be much harder to crack the top ten with the emergence of last year's class of RBs, and the freeing up of a lot of good backs from injury, RBBC, or bad situations. Addai has a shot, but I don't think you get back into the top ten this year with 1k yards and 8 Tds. I expect his numbers to come up, but I expect the competition to increase even more.

Great analysis! This is the type of thinking that can help win SBs. Too many times we start down a path early in the year and as we gain momentum we cannot change our preset notions. Many times we miss the big picture. This is a good 'let's reconsider our approach now that we are close to training camp' post.

 

[faux_bear]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP

1. Addai: Everyone is in love with the Colts offense but this guy is consistently going in the top five in redraft mocks. He's never carried a full load. I think finishing in the top 10 will be a stretch but apparently just about everyone disagrees. I would take the following ahead of him in a heartbeat: LT, LJ, SJ, SA, Westy, Rudi, FWP, Portis, and would readily consider Benson. He basically has to have a perfect season to justify his ADP, so there is very little value in this pick.

He may be overvauled, but if he finished as the #11 back last season as a part-time player, then why would top 10 be a stretch?

Because I think that last year was a rather weak year for running backs. You now have two backs from last year that won't be sharing carries that IMO have potential to finish in the top ten, in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, and Portis should be back to full health, and when healthy he always finishes in the top 10, and the same goes for SA. I mean, if someone who barely cracks 1k rushing and only has 8 total Tds almost cracks the top ten, that says a lot about the competition. I mean, Chester Taylor finished as RB12.No, I think we are in the middle of a major changing of the guard at the RB position. And I think this year the top ten will shake up a lot. I think you can pencil in LT, LJ, SJ, SA and Gore for top ten, but how the rest will shake out could really be interesting. I think the 5-10 spots could include any of the following:

Portis, Maroney, Westy, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Travis Henry, Addai, Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and some less likely candidates—Adrian Peterson (if wins job), D-Will (ditto), Edge. Last year, Portis was out of the discussion, SA got hurt, Maroney was in a time share, as was Benson, Bush, Thomas Jones, and Henry, and McGahee was with a different team. That's some seriously increased competition with some grizzled vets and guys with tons of potential. I could easily see a resurgence in running back production this year. I mean, last year Betts, a career backup, finished as RB 10. I think it's going to be much harder to crack the top ten with the emergence of last year's class of RBs, and the freeing up of a lot of good backs from injury, RBBC, or bad situations. Addai has a shot, but I don't think you get back into the top ten this year with 1k yards and 8 Tds. I expect his numbers to come up, but I expect the competition to increase even more.

Great analysis! This is the type of thinking that can help win SBs. Too many times we start down a path early in the year and as we gain momentum we cannot change our preset notions. Many times we miss the big picture. This is a good 'let's reconsider our approach now that we are close to training camp' post.

The problem is, sorting out the meat from the fat is particularly difficult this year because of how many different RB's have "potential, with question marks". Just look at at the FBG's rankings and you'll see so much variability there is with how some of the RB's are ranked. One guy has McGahee ranked as the 9th best RB, while another has him at 24th (ridiculous if you ask me). Travis Henry is ranked anywhere between 7th and 18th. Jones-Drew anywhere from 10th - 18th. Portis 7th - 22nd. The variability is nuts, and there is clearly nothing close to consensus rankings amongst this tier of RB's. Which is again, why I think I'm going to avoid this mess and go with one of the top 2 WR's in the bottom of the 1st round, rather than pretending that I know which one of those RB's will be the best of the group.

 

[Banger]

The problem is, sorting out the meat from the fat is particularly difficult this year because of how many different RB's have "potential, with question marks". Just look at at the FBG's rankings and you'll see so much variability there is with how some of the RB's are ranked. One guy has McGahee ranked as the 9th best RB, while another has him at 24th (ridiculous if you ask me). Travis Henry is ranked anywhere between 7th and 18th. Jones-Drew anywhere from 10th - 18th. Portis 7th - 22nd. The variability is nuts, and there is clearly nothing close to consensus rankings amongst this tier of RB's. Which is again, why I think I'm going to avoid this mess and go with one of the top 2 WR's in the bottom of the 1st round, rather than pretending that I know which one of those RB's will be the best of the group.

I like that there is variability and I would rather not have consensus rankings because then any dope with a cheatsheet can blindly pick through the 1st few rounds. This year there will be some good backs to target and hope they drop.

 

[TDavi118]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP2. McGahee: ADP around 10th overall and two seasons removed from a truly consistent, productive one. The Ravens didn't do much to help Lewis last year and I would be surprised if McGahee does much better. I consider him as risky if not more than the following backs: Edge, Benson, Bush, and Maroney

I posted this previously in the McGahee thread....I've read McGahee's name in a number of threads over the past few weeks in player to avoid/overvalued/ranking threads and a number of people are down on him and I'm having a hard time understanding why. Right now his ADP is RB13 and last year Jamal finished RB16 while averaging 3.6 ypc with 9 td's. I think most people agree that McGahee is an upgrade over Lewis at this point, the Ravens spent 2 1st day draft picks to improve their line (Ogden is back), there's talk of getting McGahee involved in the passing game (which Lewis never was) and he's a lock to get at least 300+ carries if healthy (there's no threat to take carries on the roster). Take the lowball #'s of 300-1170 (3.9 his career avg on Bills) - 8 tds - 200 rcv yards = 185 points which was good for 14th last year (and 7 points away from 10th). If he gets more carries (which is likely), and/or more receiving yards (possible), and/or more TD's (likely) and/or improves on the 3.9 ypc (likely IMO with a better line) he will finish higher. In my opinion he's being drafted at his downside and there are several reasons that he may outperform it making him a very safe value play. I know he's not a popular player for his past work ethic/learning plays/trashing Buffalo/etc but I think people are letting that cloud the very good situation he's in.ETA..McGahee also has the 2nd easiest strength of schedule (accdg to Dodds article) with 6 "easy" opponents and projected to be 15% easier than last year.

Boy I'm lovin' this post. McGahee will dominate this year in my opinion. I've got a serious gut-feeling about him really "breaking out".

 

[Banger]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP2. McGahee: ADP around 10th overall and two seasons removed from a truly consistent, productive one. The Ravens didn't do much to help Lewis last year and I would be surprised if McGahee does much better. I consider him as risky if not more than the following backs: Edge, Benson, Bush, and Maroney

I posted this previously in the McGahee thread....I've read McGahee's name in a number of threads over the past few weeks in player to avoid/overvalued/ranking threads and a number of people are down on him and I'm having a hard time understanding why. Right now his ADP is RB13 and last year Jamal finished RB16 while averaging 3.6 ypc with 9 td's. I think most people agree that McGahee is an upgrade over Lewis at this point, the Ravens spent 2 1st day draft picks to improve their line (Ogden is back), there's talk of getting McGahee involved in the passing game (which Lewis never was) and he's a lock to get at least 300+ carries if healthy (there's no threat to take carries on the roster). Take the lowball #'s of 300-1170 (3.9 his career avg on Bills) - 8 tds - 200 rcv yards = 185 points which was good for 14th last year (and 7 points away from 10th). If he gets more carries (which is likely), and/or more receiving yards (possible), and/or more TD's (likely) and/or improves on the 3.9 ypc (likely IMO with a better line) he will finish higher. In my opinion he's being drafted at his downside and there are several reasons that he may outperform it making him a very safe value play. I know he's not a popular player for his past work ethic/learning plays/trashing Buffalo/etc but I think people are letting that cloud the very good situation he's in.ETA..McGahee also has the 2nd easiest strength of schedule (accdg to Dodds article) with 6 "easy" opponents and projected to be 15% easier than last year.

Boy I'm lovin' this post. McGahee will dominate this year in my opinion. I've got a serious gut-feeling about him really "breaking out".

It appears that the stars are aligned and not many are taking notice...

 

[smackdaddies]

I dont buy ths addai hype , he was nt even the best RB on the Colts last season that says a lot .

Not the best RB for the Colts last year?Put down the crack pipe

 

[Obie Wan]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP2. McGahee: ADP around 10th overall and two seasons removed from a truly consistent, productive one. The Ravens didn't do much to help Lewis last year and I would be surprised if McGahee does much better. I consider him as risky if not more than the following backs: Edge, Benson, Bush, and Maroney

I posted this previously in the McGahee thread....I've read McGahee's name in a number of threads over the past few weeks in player to avoid/overvalued/ranking threads and a number of people are down on him and I'm having a hard time understanding why. Right now his ADP is RB13 and last year Jamal finished RB16 while averaging 3.6 ypc with 9 td's. I think most people agree that McGahee is an upgrade over Lewis at this point, the Ravens spent 2 1st day draft picks to improve their line (Ogden is back), there's talk of getting McGahee involved in the passing game (which Lewis never was) and he's a lock to get at least 300+ carries if healthy (there's no threat to take carries on the roster). Take the lowball #'s of 300-1170 (3.9 his career avg on Bills) - 8 tds - 200 rcv yards = 185 points which was good for 14th last year (and 7 points away from 10th). If he gets more carries (which is likely), and/or more receiving yards (possible), and/or more TD's (likely) and/or improves on the 3.9 ypc (likely IMO with a better line) he will finish higher. In my opinion he's being drafted at his downside and there are several reasons that he may outperform it making him a very safe value play. I know he's not a popular player for his past work ethic/learning plays/trashing Buffalo/etc but I think people are letting that cloud the very good situation he's in.ETA..McGahee also has the 2nd easiest strength of schedule (accdg to Dodds article) with 6 "easy" opponents and projected to be 15% easier than last year.

Boy I'm lovin' this post. McGahee will dominate this year in my opinion. I've got a serious gut-feeling about him really "breaking out".

good luck with McGahee in the pass game.He may be an improvement over Lewis but he is a huge liability. They won't be throwing much with Willis in the game if they want McNair to not get killed by a blitzer.

 

[Liquid Tension]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.***- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.***Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

The clear choice from 6 on (and maybe sooner) is Manning. I started the thread last year that Manning was the pick from 5 on and got berated (except for the smart people). Same thing again this year taking a flyer on a RB is just not smart in the 1st round if you can get Manning. I had plenty of ammo sent my way as to why I am dumb, but you would be wrong again. Ask all those people who took Caddy, RBrown, McGahee, Portis, etc... who could have taken Manning how happy they were. Look at the projections from last year (and the previous years) and look at who how many people took mediocre RB's before taking Manning. Ouch. It really surprises me that some very smart people just don't get it???I edited to say 6 on as some may like LT2, SJ, LJ, SA and Gore

 

[ceo3west]

We all know the top 5 RB's (in no particular order: Tomlinson, S.Jackson, L.Johnson, F.Gore, S.Alexander), but which RB's after that are you excited about ? There seems to be a huge drop-off after the first 5 and some of these guys you just don't know what you are going to get. A lot of these guys are becoming feature backs, some are dependable but not spectacular....

If you are picking in the 2nd part of the Round 1 in a 12 person draft, which RB's stand out to you ???? Do you consider taking a Peyton Manning or a best WR on the board given that the RB position, while filled with promise, looks to be a guessing game as to which guys will step up.

***

- Brian Westbrook: Very good RB, but you have to deal with him being questionable every week. Not a load back, but his past production makes that a non-issue. Probably the safest of the 'other' choices along with Rudi Johnson.

- Rudi Johnson: Consistent, but not spectacular. He'll usually get close to 100 or score a TD. Very safe choice.

- Willie Parker: Broke out last season...Does he stay at that level or fall back some ?

- Joseph Addai: He may be the most likely of all the RB's to in the next tier or two to break out with him being the clear #1 guy in Indy now with Rhodes gone.

- Clinton Portis: How much does LaDell Betts around hurt him ?

- Laurence Maroney: Becomes the feature back with Dillon gone...

- Cedric Benson: Becomes the feature back with Thomas Jones gone...Can he stay healthy ?

- Reggie Bush: Needs to break more of his touches as Deuce will handle most of the load.

- Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he repeat last year's performance ? How does Fragile Fred factor in here ?

- Travis Henry: Denver RB's usually step it up....Will he be any different ?

- Willis McGahee: Will he ever get above 4 yards per carry for any length of time ??

- Ronnie Brown: Breakout or bust ???

- Cadillac Williams: Rookie standout or sophmore jinx ?

- Thomas Jones/Ahman Green: Steady, but hardly specatcular....

- Deuce McCallister: Similar to Rudi Johnson, but comes with Bush and some past injuries.

***

Thoughts on the 2nd/3rd tier RB's ? Who breaks out, who doesn't ?

The clear choice from 5 on (and maybe sooner) is Manning. I started the thread last year that Manning was the pick from 5 on and got berated (except for the smart people). Same thing again this year taking a flyer on a RB is just not smart in the 1st round if you can get Manning. I had plenty of ammo sent my way as to why I am dumb, but you would be wrong again. Ask all those people who took Caddy, RBrown, McGahee, Portis, etc... who could have taken Manning how happy they were. Look at the projections from last year (and the previous years) and look at who how many people took mediocre RB's before taking Manning. Ouch. It really surprises me that some very smart people just don't get it???

You can say this about ANY player that busted or didn't meet projections. If those RB's you had mentioned lived up to their draft position, they would have had more value than Manning. To state the above is nothing but Monday-morning quarterbacking. This year, Willie Parker is slotted for #6. There's no way Im passing on him for Manning.

 

[sholditch]

I don't think it's a bad idea at all. After all, for consistent production every game all season well above the worst starter, Manning is the safest VBD pick. IN a league with fairly standard scoring he was 60 FP better than the QB2 (Brees) and 170 FP better than 12th QB and 175 better than the 14th QB. Last year FWP offered only 120 FP better than the worst starter in a 12-teamer (julius Jones, RB24), and 140 better than worst starter for a 14-teamer (Mike Bell, RB28).

By last year's numbers, Manning is the best VBD pick at 6.

 

[ImTheScientist]

IMO Henry won't be in the top 10 and won't come close to top 3. At least Gore has seen #4. Henry saw #8 in buffalo, but that was 5 years ago. When was the last time Henry played a full 16 game season? 5 years ago shocking.gif

Henry's lack of a 16 game season has as much to do with suspension and being inactive for Jeff Fisher then injury, so let's toss that out the window. SImilarly, he is in a system that has produced some extraordinary fantasy seasons out of the backfield.

Not playing a full season is not playing a full season. Suspension is just as likely or more likely to happen than injury IMO. That system has produced in the past, yes....but those past offensive teams were better than this years offensive team. If Cutler struggles the offense will also.

 

[ceo3west]

I don't think it's a bad idea at all. After all, for consistent production every game all season well above the worst starter, Manning is the safest VBD pick. IN a league with fairly standard scoring he was 60 FP better than the QB2 (Brees) and 170 FP better than 12th QB and 175 better than the 14th QB. Last year FWP offered only 120 FP better than the worst starter in a 12-teamer (julius Jones, RB24), and 140 better than worst starter for a 14-teamer (Mike Bell, RB28).By last year's numbers, Manning is the best VBD pick at 6.

The probelm I have with taking Manning at #6 is that if one of your top 2 RB's busts, you're team will most definitely struggle, as you're most likely stuck with an RB2 or RB3 as your #1 RB. I'd prefer to go with a pretty safe RB at pick 6 (FWP or Rudi, for example) and build around that. It's much easier to find QB's late that end up in the top 10. Last year, these guys ended up in the top 10 QB's (in my league), and they were had for a bag of rocks on draft day (i.e. round 7 or later):#2 Brees#6 Kitna#8 Favre#9 Rivers#10 RothlisbergerOn the other hand, only one RB in last year's top 10 could have been had after round 7:#7 MJ DrewConclusion - if you take Manning in round 1, your RB projections for the guys you take need to be almost perfect. One the other hand, if you wait on a QB and take 2 later in the draft, chances are one will pan out as a legit QB1 on your team, if not a stud.

 

[sholditch]

I wouldn't do it either because I have no doubts about FWP being in the top ten or very close to it this year, and I've never liked a team I drafted when I took QB no. 1 overall. Now if Brady or Carson are there in round 3, I would consider taking either of them, or maybe even Brees. But I also like to wait and piece together a QB later.

 

[TDavi118]

Biggest disappointments relative to ADP2. McGahee: ADP around 10th overall and two seasons removed from a truly consistent, productive one. The Ravens didn't do much to help Lewis last year and I would be surprised if McGahee does much better. I consider him as risky if not more than the following backs: Edge, Benson, Bush, and Maroney

I posted this previously in the McGahee thread....I've read McGahee's name in a number of threads over the past few weeks in player to avoid/overvalued/ranking threads and a number of people are down on him and I'm having a hard time understanding why. Right now his ADP is RB13 and last year Jamal finished RB16 while averaging 3.6 ypc with 9 td's. I think most people agree that McGahee is an upgrade over Lewis at this point, the Ravens spent 2 1st day draft picks to improve their line (Ogden is back), there's talk of getting McGahee involved in the passing game (which Lewis never was) and he's a lock to get at least 300+ carries if healthy (there's no threat to take carries on the roster). Take the lowball #'s of 300-1170 (3.9 his career avg on Bills) - 8 tds - 200 rcv yards = 185 points which was good for 14th last year (and 7 points away from 10th). If he gets more carries (which is likely), and/or more receiving yards (possible), and/or more TD's (likely) and/or improves on the 3.9 ypc (likely IMO with a better line) he will finish higher. In my opinion he's being drafted at his downside and there are several reasons that he may outperform it making him a very safe value play. I know he's not a popular player for his past work ethic/learning plays/trashing Buffalo/etc but I think people are letting that cloud the very good situation he's in.ETA..McGahee also has the 2nd easiest strength of schedule (accdg to Dodds article) with 6 "easy" opponents and projected to be 15% easier than last year.

Boy I'm lovin' this post. McGahee will dominate this year in my opinion. I've got a serious gut-feeling about him really "breaking out".

It appears that the stars are aligned and not many are taking notice...

You're taking words right out of my mouth. I agree 110%. McGahee hated playing in Buffalo and then he gets traded to a team with fellow UM alumni. He goes from a frown on his face to a huge smile and weight of his shoulders. Huge boost of confidence. Look good, Feel good,....PLAY GOOD. Rush the football, Rush the football. Baltimore Ravens is going to be unreal. Jamal Lewis looked like he had concrete for feet last year. This is going to be something. I'm just a little excited,... sorry.