The Weekly Gut Check No. 188 (1 Viewer)

[Matt Waldman]

FF Dumpster Diving/Yardsailing

The article contains player/situations to monitor for your late-round decisions today and likely the rest of this summer.

The RB table later in the article is a bit of data that is precursor to next week's article: My top 24 fantasy RBs for the last 20 years. I will be linking this top 24 to things we can learn about RBs as fantasy owners. It's a pretty interesting list and the placement of players will probably spawn more decent debate about concepts like longevity, peak productivity, consistency, etc. It should also be revealing when it comes to things like physical dimensions, college background, round drafted, etc.

 

[Ultima Thule]

Consistently delivering some of the finest fantasy analysis in the land...Mr. Matt Waldman. Nicely done.

 

[Truman]

Matt, love the column, but why it LDT missing from the list of runners?

 

[Matt Waldman]

Matt, love the column, but why it LDT missing from the list of runners?

(Big-time) Error on my part that will be corrected next week when I profile the top 24 fantasy backs from 1990-2010. This is an article I have really enjoyed writing this week. So much, that I have another piece already written that I have put on the back burner so I submit this one next week, instead.

 

[TheHosers]

Matt, have loved most of your articles & opinions (no such thing as 100% but pretty darn close) since you joined FBG but any chance you're looking at doing actual projections to be implemented in the Projections Dominator&Draft Dominator? Dodds/Henry/Trembley/Wood/Waldman would have so much more flair than the other 4 without you. No offense to the other 4 but I use your personal rankings heavily in my decisions as I believe many FBG folllowers do as well.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Matt, have loved most of your articles & opinions (no such thing as 100% but pretty darn close) since you joined FBG but any chance you're looking at doing actual projections to be implemented in the Projections Dominator&Draft Dominator? Dodds/Henry/Trembley/Wood/Waldman would have so much more flair than the other 4 without you. No offense to the other 4 but I use your personal rankings heavily in my decisions as I believe many FBG folllowers do as well.

Thank you. Those guys do an excellent job of projecting performance and I might be willing to consider doing projections in the future if Footballguys decides as a team that it makes sense. That said, I believe projections are models using tried and true methods. Models are safe ways to check your work and make sure you didn't miss anything that causes you to make foolish errors in your preparation. A lot of the work I do purposely veers away from the tried and true. A good example is my Maximizing RB Sleeper/Upside-Down Draft Strategy where I recommend picking stud receivers/QBs/Te before you select a single RB. Now my reasoning is based on retention data for the RB position, but it veers away from model of using a lot of last year's performances + new factors to base projections for the current year. Since this is a strategy I am trying in many of my own leagues, I would feel compelled to advocate projections for players with ADPs in rounds 5-10 that were much higher and it would really throw things off. My angle on fantasy football is more risk-based or experimental on a consistent basis, which I think is entertaining and (I believe) often helpful. The analogy I'm about to use is probably has more hubris than I mean it to, but I think the fact that FBGs gives me my own lab to experiment with stuff is great. If I come up with a fantasy football equivalent of something Q would be able to provide to 007 that helps him on his mission, all the better.

 

[az_prof]

Good article. On the reclamation projects, I would be willing to give Jones a shot off the FA waiver wire, but wouldn't give up much for him. It isn't just that he has under performed, but he is going to have trouble getting consistent looks with Ocho and Bryant ahead of him and now Cinn has a good, young rookie TE too. So, even if Jones has changed his character, I don't see the opportunity to shine.

In terms of the "just needs a little paint," I like Earl Bennett alot. You make a lot of good points. People forget that he averaged more yards per catch than his speedier teammates. He also had a better catch percentage (number of catches per looks). They also forget that he is younger than all of them except Iglesias--yes, he is younger than Knox and Aromashodu. I think you have to factor that in when considering his learning curve and whether he has potential to improve. You are dead on that the reason the other two guys are getting lots of love has to do with how the media covered these players. Knox and Aromashodu had some big plays that made the weekly highlight films, while Bennett, week in and week out, was catching three or four 10 to 15 yard passes.

Troy Williamson? I am a Viking fan, so I am biased, but I just find it hard to believe he will ever be a success. He drops too many darn passes.

Mike Williams? Would he even be in the league if his old college coach hadn't picked him up for peanuts? You are right that he has a chance because there isn't much above him but I never was a big believer. Also, I can't think of one player in the history of the NFL who was so highly regarded, then fell into such obscurity after doing absolutely nothing, who six years into his career suddenly became good. I don't think I am buying.

Schilens: There is a lot to like. He can easily be a top 20 WR in 2010 if he can stay healthy. But that seems to have been a big "if" for him. I would compare him to MSW before last season. Someone besides Zach Miller is going to go for over 1000 yards in that receiving corp with Campbell tossing the rock; it isn't likely to be DHB; it could be Murphy but I doubt he is there yet; it won't be anyone else. It will certainly be Schilens if he is healthy.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Good article. On the reclamation projects, I would be willing to give Jones a shot off the FA waiver wire, but wouldn't give up much for him. It isn't just that he has under performed, but he is going to have trouble getting consistent looks with Ocho and Bryant ahead of him and now Cinn has a good, young rookie TE too. So, even if Jones has changed his character, I don't see the opportunity to shine.In terms of the "just needs a little paint," I like Earl Bennett alot. You make a lot of good points. People forget that he averaged more yards per catch than his speedier teammates. He also had a better catch percentage (number of catches per looks). They also forget that he is younger than all of them except Iglesias--yes, he is younger than Knox and Aromashodu. I think you have to factor that in when considering his learning curve and whether he has potential to improve. You are dead on that the reason the other two guys are getting lots of love has to do with how the media covered these players. Knox and Aromashodu had some big plays that made the weekly highlight films, while Bennett, week in and week out, was catching three or four 10 to 15 yard passes.Troy Williamson? I am a Viking fan, so I am biased, but I just find it hard to believe he will ever be a success. He drops too many darn passes.Mike Williams? Would he even be in the league if his old college coach hadn't picked him up for peanuts? You are right that he has a chance because there isn't much above him but I never was a big believer. Also, I can't think of one player in the history of the NFL who was so highly regarded, then fell into such obscurity after doing absolutely nothing, who six years into his career suddenly became good. I don't think I am buying.Schilens: There is a lot to like. He can easily be a top 20 WR in 2010 if he can stay healthy. But that seems to have been a big "if" for him. I would compare him to MSW before last season. Someone besides Zach Miller is going to go for over 1000 yards in that receiving corp with Campbell tossing the rock; it isn't likely to be DHB; it could be Murphy but I doubt he is there yet; it won't be anyone else. It will certainly be Schilens if he is healthy.

I'm much more inclined to shoot for Jones, Bennett, and Schilens. However, if I'm in a deep draft (like I am right now 53-round dynasty league with 16 teams), I'll give Williamson and Williams a look for sure.

 

[King of the Jungle]

At least Mike Williams "looks" like he is in shape....

Pic

....maybe he has pulled his head out of his rear end.

 

[karmarooster]

A good example is my Maximizing RB Sleeper/Upside-Down Draft Strategy where I recommend picking stud receivers/QBs/Te before you select a single RB. Now my reasoning is based on retention data for the RB position, but it veers away from model of using a lot of last year's performances + new factors to base projections for the current year. Since this is a strategy I am trying in many of my own leagues, I would feel compelled to advocate projections for players with ADPs in rounds 5-10 that were much higher and it would really throw things off. My angle on fantasy football is more risk-based or experimental on a consistent basis, which I think is entertaining and (I believe) often helpful. The analogy I'm about to use is probably has more hubris than I mean it to, but I think the fact that FBGs gives me my own lab to experiment with stuff is great. If I come up with a fantasy football equivalent of something Q would be able to provide to 007 that helps him on his mission, all the better.

A bit off topic, but I remember your Sleeper RB Risk article last year very well. I'm curious to know how it worked for you in the leagues that you followed it, because if I recall you had Rice and Benson pegged as later RBs, along with a few duds (Lendale?).... although the article was before Rice's ADP started blowing up. Are you planning a similar article for this year? While I didn't copy the strategy to the T, i found it very informative and probably your best article from last summer.Regarding Dumpster RBs, in addition to the handcuffs/backups mentioned in the article, I think Larry Johnson is an excellent candidate at his current ADP of 13.12. If he excels in Shanny's offense, he could be a difference maker. A few others to add... if Chris Johnson holds out into the season, Javon Ringer and LaGarrette Blount could fit the description. And Toby Gerhart - Peterson has carried the ball 748 times the last two years including playoffs.

 

[Matt Waldman]

A good example is my Maximizing RB Sleeper/Upside-Down Draft Strategy where I recommend picking stud receivers/QBs/Te before you select a single RB. Now my reasoning is based on retention data for the RB position, but it veers away from model of using a lot of last year's performances + new factors to base projections for the current year. Since this is a strategy I am trying in many of my own leagues, I would feel compelled to advocate projections for players with ADPs in rounds 5-10 that were much higher and it would really throw things off. My angle on fantasy football is more risk-based or experimental on a consistent basis, which I think is entertaining and (I believe) often helpful. The analogy I'm about to use is probably has more hubris than I mean it to, but I think the fact that FBGs gives me my own lab to experiment with stuff is great. If I come up with a fantasy football equivalent of something Q would be able to provide to 007 that helps him on his mission, all the better.

A bit off topic, but I remember your Sleeper RB Risk article last year very well. I'm curious to know how it worked for you in the leagues that you followed it, because if I recall you had Rice and Benson pegged as later RBs, along with a few duds (Lendale?).... although the article was before Rice's ADP started blowing up. Are you planning a similar article for this year? While I didn't copy the strategy to the T, i found it very informative and probably your best article from last summer.Regarding Dumpster RBs, in addition to the handcuffs/backups mentioned in the article, I think Larry Johnson is an excellent candidate at his current ADP of 13.12. If he excels in Shanny's offense, he could be a difference maker. A few others to add... if Chris Johnson holds out into the season, Javon Ringer and LaGarrette Blount could fit the description. And Toby Gerhart - Peterson has carried the ball 748 times the last two years including playoffs.

I will be writing a Sleeper RB piece again. I already have the RBs picked out and I have written a version for Fantasy Sports Publications and I also have a Footballguys version that is goes into more detail, but want to wait at least 4-6 weeks before I get it posted. I want to update it based on ADP and some early training camp developments. I'm still looking for a couple of teams I had where the strategy was in clear effect, but here are two that were somewhat adjusted version that worked out for me. The first is a league where I lost in the semis the eventual champ who was first in points. My team was second in points. If I were more patient with RBs I think would have won the whole thing even with a so-so QB. I felt compelled to cheat up for Rice. 1.04 4. The Wrecking Crew Moss, Randy NEP WR Sat Aug 22 3:52:09 p.m. ET 2009 227.602.07 17. The Wrecking Crew Jennings, Greg GBP WR Sat Aug 22 4:03:44 p.m. ET 2009 146.403.04 24. The Wrecking Crew Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR Sat Aug 22 4:12:56 p.m. ET 2009 167.904.07 37. The Wrecking Crew Rice, Ray BAL RB Sat Aug 22 4:28:09 p.m. ET 2009 265.605.04 44. The Wrecking Crew Barber, Marion DAL RB Sat Aug 22 4:37:36 p.m. ET 2009 159.906.07 57. The Wrecking Crew Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB Sat Aug 22 4:56:15 p.m. ET 2009 74.907.04 64. The Wrecking Crew Jackson, DeSean PHI WR Sat Aug 22 5:08:14 p.m. ET 2009 208.208.07 77. The Wrecking Crew Bush, Michael OAK RB Sat Aug 22 5:25:32 p.m. ET 2009 92.609.04 84. The Wrecking Crew Palmer, Carson CIN QB Sat Aug 22 5:36:03 p.m. ET 2009 270.9010.07 97. The Wrecking Crew Jones, Felix DAL RB Sat Aug 22 5:53:21 p.m. ET 2009 98.4011.04 104. The Wrecking Crew Davis, Vernon SFO TE Sat Aug 22 6:45:57 p.m. ET 2009 176.6012.07 117. The Wrecking Crew Smith, Steve NYG WR Sat Aug 22 7:04:20 p.m. ET 2009 171.8013.04 124. The Wrecking Crew Edwards, Trent BUF QB Sat Aug 22 7:15:47 p.m. ET 2009 93.1014.07 137. The Wrecking Crew McGahee, Willis BAL RB Sat Aug 22 7:30:25 p.m. ET 2009 154.3015.04 144. The Wrecking Crew Bennett, Earl CHI WR Sat Aug 22 7:41:15 p.m. ET 2009 85.7016.07 157. The Wrecking Crew Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def Sat Aug 22 7:54:13 p.m. ET 2009 87.0017.04 164. The Wrecking Crew Chargers, San Diego SDC Def Sat Aug 22 7:59:29 p.m. ET 2009 71.0018.07 177. The Wrecking Crew Longwell, Ryan MIN PK Sat Aug 22 8:14:33 p.m. ET 2009 134.0019.04 184. The Wrecking Crew Brown, Chris HOU RB Sat Aug 22 8:22:32 p.m. ET 2009 52.1020.07 197. The Wrecking Crew Williamson, Troy JAC WR Sat Aug 22 8:34:46 p.m. ET 2009 3.40This is the FGBs IDP league where I was drafting from the 2-spot, so I felt compelled to take Peterson when I had any choice of RB not named MJD. This team went undefeated in the regular season, but lost to eventual champ Aaron Rudnicki after my first-round bye. Again, I cheated up on Rice because Bramel knew I liked him and we were battling for him in most every league we were in. Otherwise, I went after LB, QB, and WR. 1.02 2. The Wrecking Crew Peterson, Adrian MIN RB Fri Jul 24 12:22:29 p.m. ET 2009 321.50 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List2.13 27. The Wrecking Crew Brady, Tom NEP QB Sat Jul 25 5:22:57 p.m. ET 2009 282.94 Might as well throw deep on 2nd down....3.02 30. The Wrecking Crew Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR Sat Jul 25 5:35:57 p.m. ET 2009 230.10 Thanks Clayton 4.13 55. The Wrecking Crew Willis, Patrick SFO LB Mon Jul 27 3:39:02 p.m. ET 2009 261.205.02 58. The Wrecking Crew Rice, Ray BAL RB Mon Jul 27 4:18:14 p.m. ET 2009 325.606.13 83. The Wrecking Crew Vilma, Jonathan NOS LB Wed Jul 29 10:25:19 a.m. ET 2009 185.35 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List7.02 86. The Wrecking Crew Holt, Torry JAC WR Wed Jul 29 11:42:48 a.m. ET 2009 121.208.13 111. The Wrecking Crew Harrison, James PIT LB Wed Jul 29 11:55:06 p.m. ET 2009 174.459.02 114. The Wrecking Crew Driver, Donald GBP WR Thu Jul 30 12:21:03 a.m. ET 2009 211.4010.13 139. The Wrecking Crew Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB Thu Jul 30 4:40:49 p.m. ET 2009 204.0011.02 142. The Wrecking Crew Taylor, Fred NEP RB Thu Jul 30 5:12:06 p.m. ET 2009 52.6012.13 167. The Wrecking Crew Harvin, Percy MIN WR Fri Jul 31 1:22:46 a.m. ET 2009 201.30 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List13.02 170. The Wrecking Crew Henry, Chris CIN WR Fri Jul 31 2:00:15 a.m. ET 2009 47.60 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List14.13 195. The Wrecking Crew Davis, Vernon SFO TE Fri Jul 31 5:59:27 p.m. ET 2009 252.50 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List15.02 198. The Wrecking Crew Finnegan, Cortland TEN CB Fri Jul 31 6:44:18 p.m. ET 2009 141.75 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List16.13 223. The Wrecking Crew Dawkins, Brian DEN S Sat Aug 1 8:38:19 p.m. ET 2009 198.75 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List17.02 226. The Wrecking Crew Taylor, Chester MIN RB Sat Aug 1 9:45:09 p.m. ET 2009 128.10 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List18.13 251. The Wrecking Crew Avril, Cliff DET DE Sun Aug 2 4:46:42 p.m. ET 2009 88.70 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List19.02 254. The Wrecking Crew Griffin, Michael TEN S Sun Aug 2 8:31:06 p.m. ET 2009 126.50 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List20.13 279. The Wrecking Crew Hayes, William TEN DE Mon Aug 3 10:51:00 a.m. ET 2009 86.10 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List21.02 282. The Wrecking Crew Jennings, Rashad JAC RB Mon Aug 3 12:57:39 p.m. ET 2009 52.80 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List22.13 307. The Wrecking Crew Heap, Todd BAL TE Mon Aug 3 10:58:51 p.m. ET 2009 148.50 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List23.02 310. The Wrecking Crew Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Tue Aug 4 12:59:29 a.m. ET 2009 150.10 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List24.13 335. The Wrecking Crew Williams, Demetrius BAL WR Tue Aug 4 10:25:12 p.m. ET 2009 28.2025.02 338. The Wrecking Crew Thomas, Adalius NEP LB Tue Aug 4 11:02:53 p.m. ET 2009 62.5026.13 363. The Wrecking Crew Cook, Jared TEN TE Wed Aug 5 3:44:50 p.m. ET 2009 16.40 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List27.02 366. The Wrecking Crew Revis, Darrelle NYJ CB Wed Aug 5 4:01:54 p.m. ET 2009 164.25 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List28.13 391. The Wrecking Crew Russell, JaMarcus OAK QB Wed Aug 5 11:32:49 p.m. ET 2009 27.4129.02 394. The Wrecking Crew Orakpo, Brian WAS LB Thu Aug 6 11:08:21 a.m. ET 2009 125.0530.13 419. The Wrecking Crew Hargrove, Tony NOS DT Thu Aug 6 4:43:42 p.m. ET 2009 120.00 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List31.02 422. The Wrecking Crew Crosby, Mason GBP PK Thu Aug 6 5:06:49 p.m. ET 2009 127.00 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List32.13 447. The Wrecking Crew Williams, Jamal SDC DT Fri Aug 7 12:36:23 p.m. ET 2009 6.0033.02 450. The Wrecking Crew Adibi, Xavier HOU LB Fri Aug 7 2:08:46 p.m. ET 2009 6.75 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List34.13 475. The Wrecking Crew Landry, LaRon WAS S Fri Aug 7 4:35:42 p.m. ET 2009 150.60