The Wes Welker Thread (1 Viewer)

[Anonymous Internet User]

Since Wes Welker didn't get a player spotlight, and I've got a case of man-love for the guy, I figured he should get his own thread.

I'm going to make a bold prediction and say that Welker ends up #1 in both receptions and receiving yardage on the Patriots this year. You're probably saying: "Wow, he's the No.3 WR at best - not a chance!" Well, here's the brief case for it:

1) Welker's playstyle

Welker has great hands, he's quick, and he's elusive in the open field. His yardage after the catch (a stat I don't have handy, but from watching him play it's obvious) is terrific, meaning that he's a playmaker on short to mid passes. Playing in the slot position suits his talents very well and I think that Brady will be looking to him quite often.

2) The depth chart

Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth are the likely candidates to start ahead of him on the depth charts. Two reasons I'm not terribly concerned with this. First, NE spreads the ball around. So, a number 1 WR isn't that much different from the number 2 or number 3. This is evidenced by the NE WR statistics over the last several seasons. (note: will edit to include these here)

Not only that, but both Moss and Stallworth have had very significant recent injury concerns that are still lingering. Neither will be playing at 100% the full season (that's pretty much given) - this will lead to Welker getting more looks. Both Moss and Stallworth are suited for downfield plays - something that NE is not really known for as an offense. Sure, this might change with their presence, but I don't expect too many departures from the usual 10-15 yard targets. I think that Moss especially will be a terrific red-zone threat, which is why I don't claim Welker will be leading in receiving TDs.

So, what am I predicting for him? Simply put WR 3/4 type numbers. Judging by his past performances with much lesser QBs and on lesser teams, coupled with stats from Deion Branch and Troy Brown (players who filled in the slot position in years past), I'm predicting for Welker:

60 receptions / 950 yards / 5 TDs

This puts him right around WR 36 in PPR leagues, ie. weak WR 3, strong WR 4.

As such, even though it's still a reach by ADP of a couple rounds, I like him around round 10 this year in PPR leagues over guys like Muhsin Muhammad, Joe Horn, Eddie Kennison, Greg Jennings, and Jerry Porter.

 

[Tar Heel Boy]

I picked him up very late today in a league. I think it was Round 17, but regardless I think he could be a nice bye week fill in for the league. We start 3 WRs, so he might be worth a shot. I don't think he'll be the #1 WR, but I do think he could have very similiar, if not better, numbers than Stallworth.

 

[tombonneau]

As a Pats homer, I'm not going to say you are crazy.

I think what you saw this weekend is going to be pretty much how Welker will be used all years. Other WRs will rotate in and out wide, but WW is going to be consistently working the slot on almost every pass play.

I think he'll put up very consistent #s in ppr leagues, which is what you want out of a backup WRs. Barring injury, I highly doubt you'll see any 0-3 pt games out of him.

 

[JoeSteeler]

I just traded Troy Smith for him in my PPR dynasty league

We can start up to 4 WR

 

[Gravedigger]

While I agree he is undervalued according to ADP simply due to the fact that who gets the balls is murky in NE, and you aren't claiming he's top 24 material, I disagree slightly (even though I own him in my league).

First, he can't take double's. If both Moss and Stall are gimpy, he's toast. He needs one, preferably Moss, to step up and draw coverage in order to get some yards.

Second, Watson. NE's TE is an excellent short to mid range ball grabber and while Wes is as well, they will split work in this range.

Third, Brady. I don't believe it was the WR's that made Brady look good. I think Brady makes WR's look good. He can make multiple reads to the open WR and has a strong tendency to go with the hot hand. Who gets monster points from week to week will be irritatingly unpredictable. Wes will have some awesome games. You'll play him, and he'll disappear for weeks.

What I will give you is that he'll get his share. For a WR4, he is good material in leagues that play 2. Rolling the dice with him and he might put up a great game that week.

But, Moss is the leaper, and should get the TD fades. Stall and Moss should be the bomb guys, and Watson should steal more middle work than most TE's from other teams.

I like the scrapper, but anything more than spot duty for multiple WR bye weeks and I think you're in for inconsistency.

 

[packersfan]

I like him a lot as well but much more so in PPR leagues than standard scoring ones. I posted in LHucks thread that I believe Welker will emerge as Brady's most reliable receiver and that will earn him a steady amount of targets each week. With Moss and Stallworth bringing the ability to stretch defenses downfield, the intermediate areas are going to be open in the Patriots' passing game. I believe Welker will thrive in those areas (as will Watson and Faulk potentially as well). He runs good routes, has good hands and I could see him emerging as (at worst) a Bobby Engram-type option for Brady and possibly similar to Amani Toomer's role with the Giants - the clutch, dependable receiver his quarterback goes to in order to keep the chains moving.

The beauty of Welker, in my opinion, is he can be had for a song. His ADP has been very low for months and you can get him very late in PPR leagues as a WR5 or WR6. Given his WR3 potential that's a huge bargain. And when you factor in the very real possibility that Moss and/or Stallworth miss time, Welker has a chance to be even more productive as his role expands in those weeks of the season.

I think he's one of the best bargains in PPR leagues right now. My draft is in a few days and I'm hoping to snare him late.

 

[mad sweeney]

I've got him in all 3 league so far. Is he still slated for punt returns? IMO, that's a plus enough to give him the nod over similarly ranked guys.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Welker is also arguably the best return guy in the league

 

[Bri]

Second, Watson. NE's TE is an excellent short to mid range ball grabber and while Wes is as well, they will split work in this range.

I don't think it matters so much.NE would love to send Watson deep as much as possible as most of the defenders coverring him couldn't keep up, jump high enough, and/or outmuscle him.Regardless a player only needs 4-5 catches or so to be a good FF start in PPR leagues. 80 catches 16*5 may seem high but the way Brady looks for him 5 a week doesn't seem like too much.This preseason, Welker and Jabar have been the only two guys that I've noticed Brady do a "throw it anyway" throw as they were coverred well. There's one highlight on the NFL.com gamecenter page for the Pats game. It seems Brady has ALOT of confidence in Welker.

 

[Gravedigger]

I'll back down on PPR leagues. Not in many myself and I tend to consider just yardage and TD's. While I like WW's yardage potential, I just don't see him in the endzone much with Moss, Stall, and Watson around.

But, as far as working between the 20's, you and the thread poster are likely right: He'll get his share.

Me, I never drafted a guy like B.Blades though. I'm guessing you see similar numbers/trends.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Moss and Stallworth are both great big play threats. They are going to force defenses to respect their speed and play them deep. Meanwhile, most of the front 7s they face will be concerned with slowing down Maroney and the running game. That should leave Watson and Welker available to work the middle of the field all day long. Going to be very tough for defenses to deal with a healthy Moss and Stallworth on the outside, Welker and Watson over the middle, and the pounding of Maroney and threat of Morris and Faulk coming out of the backfield.

As a result, I think Welker and Watson both have great potential this year as they will likely be far down the list of players defenses account for...and Brady is a master at taking what the defense gives him rather than throwing up jump balls and trying to force the ball to his big-play WRs.

in PPR leagues, Welker should be very reliable as a fill-in when your starters are injured or on bye weeks.

 

[Woz]

Grabbed him at 11.11 in a tough 12 team league draft tonight as my 4th WR. Was happy about it for the reasons stated above.

 

[radballs]

Moss and Stallworth are both great big play threats. They are going to force defenses to respect their speed and play them deep. Meanwhile, most of the front 7s they face will be concerned with slowing down Maroney and the running game. That should leave Watson and Welker available to work the middle of the field all day long. Going to be very tough for defenses to deal with a healthy Moss and Stallworth on the outside, Welker and Watson over the middle, and the pounding of Maroney and threat of Morris and Faulk coming out of the backfield.As a result, I think Welker and Watson both have great potential this year as they will likely be far down the list of players defenses account for...and Brady is a master at taking what the defense gives him rather than throwing up jump balls and trying to force the ball to his big-play WRs.in PPR leagues, Welker should be very reliable as a fill-in when your starters are injured or on bye weeks.

Good post Aaron and I agree to a certain extent. I just disagree with the OP's "bold prediction" that he'll end up with more receptions and yardage than either Moss or Stallworth. Will Welker produce the most value of all three NE WRs given their draft position? Possibly. Will he actually surpass Moss or Stallworth in either or both categories? Very doubtful.

 

[David Yudkin]

Given that Moss and Stallworth may miss a few games with injuries at some point during the season, I don't think it's a stretch to think that Welker could lead the Pats in receptions. I would guess that his numbers would be similar to last year in MIA (67-687-1).

 

[Toads]

Given that Moss and Stallworth may miss a few games with injuries at some point during the season, I don't think it's a stretch to think that Welker could lead the Pats in receptions. I would guess that his numbers would be similar to last year in MIA (67-687-1).

In any league that honors Returner Yardage (eg. HAFAX-HAFAX-II ), Welker is Gold.His '06 year in MIA was sterling, good enough for a WR #29 ranking in these 16 team leagues. That makes him a #2 WR, with some serioius weekly upside if he returns both punts and KO's, in these types of play.

Fewer and fewer return guys are fielding both punts and KO's. To have the prospects of the type season you're talking about for Welker on the receiving end, and combining that with serious return yardage, means that Welker is a real bargain in the leagues that combine catches, return yardage and the auction style format.

Warning though: Welker is subject to the bad news as well as the good news. Injury plays a big part in his game and causes him to be unreliable. Evidence his week #15 failure in '06: a four-pointer, in the Conference Finals. This game hurt Welker's season production (he was the #21 raked WR going into Week #15) as well as playing a major part in determining the League's Champion.

 

[nygiants56]

I couldn't believe it when he was still there at 4.11, should I be worried about Betts taking his job? is he really that hurt, all I've heard is that he'll be good to go. It's almost like a too good to be true sort of thing, and am wondering if there is some sort of inside info I am missing. I haven't kept up on the Redskins offseason.Where are some spots he has been going in drafts you are in?

He should be fine, a lot of people will tell you he is injury prone yadda yadda. His value is really more dependant on if Campbell takes his game to the next level or not.

I've been loving over Welker since he went to NE. he's a lock to catch 80 balls this season. Stallworth is always hurt, Moss is currently hurt and hasn't practiced, and Welker is just too good to ignore. He will quickly become Brady's go-to guy.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I couldn't believe it when he was still there at 4.11, should I be worried about Betts taking his job? is he really that hurt, all I've heard is that he'll be good to go. It's almost like a too good to be true sort of thing, and am wondering if there is some sort of inside info I am missing. I haven't kept up on the Redskins offseason.Where are some spots he has been going in drafts you are in?

He should be fine, a lot of people will tell you he is injury prone yadda yadda. His value is really more dependant on if Campbell takes his game to the next level or not.

I've been loving over Welker since he went to NE. he's a lock to catch 80 balls this season. Stallworth is always hurt, Moss is currently hurt and hasn't practiced, and Welker is just too good to ignore. He will quickly become Brady's go-to guy.

not sure about 80 though. not many receivers on NE have historically gotten that high.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

In a perfect season, I don't see Welker breaking 45 catches. Nice story though.

 

[Mr. Chumley]

What do you guys see from him this year. He is a FA in my league and I've thought about grabbing him but not sure about his value. Do you think he will improve his numbers from last year?

 

[shadyridr]

I think he will def lead the Pats in receptions and should put up good receiving #s. I doubt he scores more than 4 TDs. Right now I have him ranked as the 41 WR and if I can grab him as a WR5 Id be thrilled.

 

[Mr. Chumley]

Will he still be handling return duties this year?

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

please see my All Wes Welker, All the Time thread

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6&hl=welker

 

[Yogi Berra]

He's going to help a lot of people win a PPR league.

 

[Boston]

The key to Welker's fantasy value is your league's scoring. If you are in a PPR league than he'll have solid value as a #4/#5 WR with the potential to be a #3 depending on the health of Moss and Stallworth. IMO Welker will be a player along the lines of Troy Brown of about six years ago. He'll have solid reception numbers but the yardage and TDs will be nothing special. The big difference between he and Brown will be that Troy (at the time) was the Pat's first option and they didn't have a lot of weapons. Since Welker is not in that type of situation he won't have the numbers Troy had.

All signs point to BB and Brady loving the kid. He's an energizer bunny who runs tight routes and I fully expect him to become Brady's security blanket. Also, he should be going up against #3 CBs and safeties for the most part which bodes well for him getting open. The Pats gave up a #2 and a #7 as well as a decent contract to obtain Welker and I fully expect him to be a big part of their offense. I feel pretty comfortable predicting that he'll finish in the top two in receptions for the Pats. If Moss is the real deal than he may have higher reception numbers but outside of that scenario I think Welker will have the highest total.

 

[Mr. Chumley]

please see my All Wes Welker, All the Time thread

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6&hl=welker

not sure how I missed this. Thanks

 

[nygiants56]

What do you guys see from him this year. He is a FA in my league and I've thought about grabbing him but not sure about his value. Do you think he will improve his numbers from last year?

80 catches, 1000 yards, 9 tds..sneaky good WR who can't be covered...Moss won't play much in 2007 it appears, and Stallworth is a sneeze away from IR.enter Welker.

 

[parrot]

60 receptions / 950 yards / 5 TDs

You need to either bump up his receptions or bump down his yardage. There is no way he'll average 16 yds a catch. TDs might be a little high too if you look at him as the next coming of Troy Brown as many people seem to be doing. Brown only caught 5 tds one time under Brady and that was the year he was far and away Brady's primary focus and caught 100 balls. It's not out of the question that Welker might get 5 but it's a pretty rosy projection.

 

[Tom Servo]

Given that Moss and Stallworth may miss a few games with injuries at some point during the season, I don't think it's a stretch to think that Welker could lead the Pats in receptions. I would guess that his numbers would be similar to last year in MIA (67-687-1).

I got him at 10.01 in my 16-team redraft last night. If he gives me that, it'll be 140 FP (about 9 FP/G). I'll take that from WR4/5 (TO, Evans, Hackett, Porter, Demetrius Williams also on roster)!!!

 

[David Yudkin]

What do you guys see from him this year. He is a FA in my league and I've Moss won't play much in 2007 it appears.

There has been talk in these parts that the whole "Moss is injured and can't play" story is way over blown and that Belichick may be egging people on to think that but will unveil a mostly healthy Moss and new plays in Week 1 that will showcase what he can do, disproving the washed up 30-year-old theory. Clearly no one knows what his status really is and if the Pats are actually trying to set up the Jets, but I would not put it past them to try something like this.

 

[ImTheScientist]

What do you guys see from him this year. He is a FA in my league and I've thought about grabbing him but not sure about his value. Do you think he will improve his numbers from last year?

80 catches, 1000 yards, 9 tds..sneaky good WR who can't be covered...

Moss won't play much in 2007 it appears, and Stallworth is a sneeze away from IR.

enter Welker.

Portis...now Moss.....LT must be next

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

What do you guys see from him this year. He is a FA in my league and I've

Moss won't play much in 2007 it appears.

There has been talk in these parts that the whole "Moss is injured and can't play" story is way over blown and that Belichick may be egging people on to think that but will unveil a mostly healthy Moss and new plays in Week 1 that will showcase what he can do, disproving the washed up 30-year-old theory. Clearly no one knows what his status really is and if the Pats are actually trying to set up the Jets, but I would not put it past them to try something like this.

Agree.I would suspect Mangini would be extra sensitive to not falling for this.

Then again, maybe Moss really is hurt and BB wants people to think he's pretending he's not hurt to trick people into not falling for the trick that Moss isn't hurt.

 

[FFdork]

Then again, maybe Moss really is hurt and BB wants people to think he's pretending he's not hurt to trick people into not falling for the trick that Moss isn't hurt.

You just blew my mind, man

 

[David Yudkin]

Then again, maybe Moss really is hurt and BB wants people to think he's pretending he's not hurt to trick people into not falling for the trick that Moss isn't hurt.

You just blew my mind, man

This seems straight out of Get Smart with Max and the Chief in the Cone of Silence (for those old enough to remember it).

 

[Jason Wood]

Honestly, is there an ESPN or talk radio host who HASN'T said, "watch Wes Welker catch 90 balls in that offense." I can't wait to revisit the Welker love affair at season's end...if Moss and Stallworth each play at least 12 games, Welker won't catch 50 balls, much less 90.

 

[David Yudkin]

Honestly, is there an ESPN or talk radio host who HASN'T said, "watch Wes Welker catch 90 balls in that offense." I can't wait to revisit the Welker love affair at season's end...if Moss and Stallworth each play at least 12 games, Welker won't catch 50 balls, much less 90.

I'd be surprised if Welker has under 50 receptions. I suspect he will be the dump off guy. I think 90 is insanity, but it gives people something to talk abbout. If Stallworth is the deep threat, I don't see Stallworth getting much more than 40 catches, maybe 50 tops. NE will be a very interesting team to watch, that's for sure.

 

[Jason Wood]

Honestly, is there an ESPN or talk radio host who HASN'T said, "watch Wes Welker catch 90 balls in that offense." I can't wait to revisit the Welker love affair at season's end...if Moss and Stallworth each play at least 12 games, Welker won't catch 50 balls, much less 90.

I'd be surprised if Welker has under 50 receptions. I suspect he will be the dump off guy. I think 90 is insanity, but it gives people something to talk abbout. If Stallworth is the deep threat, I don't see Stallworth getting much more than 40 catches, maybe 50 tops. NE will be a very interesting team to watch, that's for sure.

I think Ben Watson + Kevin Faulk + Heath Evans + Laurence Maroney + Wes Welker will be the "dump off" guys.I've never seen so many people get worked up about a guy that averaged 10.3 yards per catch and had ONE (1) TD in 67 grabs a season ago. Baffling. People keep saying Wes Welker is in "the ideal" situation...I don't get it.The Patriots added Moss & Stallworth. They also have last year's top two pass catchers, Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, around. They also have not one, but three or four solid pass-catching RBs, and an athletic TE.The other thing I think people gloss over is that Welker's 67 catches for 687 yards last year came on a team that threw the ball 590 times last year! The Fins were 4th in the league in attempts and 6th in completions. It's not like Welker was putting up big numbers no a team that rank the ball a ton.

 

[David Yudkin]

Honestly, is there an ESPN or talk radio host who HASN'T said, "watch Wes Welker catch 90 balls in that offense." I can't wait to revisit the Welker love affair at season's end...if Moss and Stallworth each play at least 12 games, Welker won't catch 50 balls, much less 90.

I'd be surprised if Welker has under 50 receptions. I suspect he will be the dump off guy. I think 90 is insanity, but it gives people something to talk abbout. If Stallworth is the deep threat, I don't see Stallworth getting much more than 40 catches, maybe 50 tops. NE will be a very interesting team to watch, that's for sure.

I think Ben Watson + Kevin Faulk + Heath Evans + Laurence Maroney + Wes Welker will be the "dump off" guys.I've never seen so many people get worked up about a guy that averaged 10.3 yards per catch and had ONE (1) TD in 67 grabs a season ago. Baffling. People keep saying Wes Welker is in "the ideal" situation...I don't get it.The Patriots added Moss & Stallworth. They also have last year's top two pass catchers, Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, around. They also have not one, but three or four solid pass-catching RBs, and an athletic TE.The other thing I think people gloss over is that Welker's 67 catches for 687 yards last year came on a team that threw the ball 590 times last year! The Fins were 4th in the league in attempts and 6th in completions. It's not like Welker was putting up big numbers no a team that rank the ball a ton.

We could play this game all day, but it's also possible that with a bevy of receiving talent and a decrease in established RBs that NE could throw more and run less. I don't think the Pats will turn into the Parcells era Patriots, but I think they will passs more than people are giving them credit for.

 

[Jason Wood]

Honestly, is there an ESPN or talk radio host who HASN'T said, "watch Wes Welker catch 90 balls in that offense." I can't wait to revisit the Welker love affair at season's end...if Moss and Stallworth each play at least 12 games, Welker won't catch 50 balls, much less 90.

I'd be surprised if Welker has under 50 receptions. I suspect he will be the dump off guy. I think 90 is insanity, but it gives people something to talk abbout. If Stallworth is the deep threat, I don't see Stallworth getting much more than 40 catches, maybe 50 tops. NE will be a very interesting team to watch, that's for sure.

I think Ben Watson + Kevin Faulk + Heath Evans + Laurence Maroney + Wes Welker will be the "dump off" guys.I've never seen so many people get worked up about a guy that averaged 10.3 yards per catch and had ONE (1) TD in 67 grabs a season ago. Baffling. People keep saying Wes Welker is in "the ideal" situation...I don't get it.The Patriots added Moss & Stallworth. They also have last year's top two pass catchers, Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, around. They also have not one, but three or four solid pass-catching RBs, and an athletic TE.The other thing I think people gloss over is that Welker's 67 catches for 687 yards last year came on a team that threw the ball 590 times last year! The Fins were 4th in the league in attempts and 6th in completions. It's not like Welker was putting up big numbers no a team that rank the ball a ton.

We could play this game all day, but it's also possible that with a bevy of receiving talent and a decrease in established RBs that NE could throw more and run less. I don't think the Pats will turn into the Parcells era Patriots, but I think they will passs more than people are giving them credit for.

I just think it's ironic that people are projecting a big uptick in productivity from Welker because he's going to play for Belichick and catch passes from Tom Brady. Yet, I see almost no one saying that Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth are going to see big upticks in productivity because they're going to play for Belichick and catch passes from Tom Brady. Just seems like the classic case of people hyping up the underdog for the sake of it...as though somehow the world needs another Troy Brown.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Bottom line is if you draft Randy Moss, take Welker late for a bit of insurance. Welker in the 16th is not a bad pick. If he doesn't pan out after first three weeks, cut him.

 

[shakeybarn]

Welker is also arguably the best return guy in the league

Glad you threw in "arguably", as I'd argue a certain fella named Hester.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Overrated. *clap* *clap* *clap**clap**clap*

Overrated. *clap* *clap* *clap**clap**clap*

Overrated. *clap* *clap* *clap**clap**clap

 

[shakeybarn]

Bottom line is if you draft Randy Moss, take Welker late for a bit of insurance. Welker in the 16th is not a bad pick. If he doesn't pan out after first three weeks, cut him.

Why? A #2 quality WR on New England is pretty much roster fodder. He ain't Randy Moss, and even then I think a few folks have wishful thinking that he'll put up numbers like he did Minnesota on the turf with Culpepper's "Bombs Away" style of deep ball.Why hedge with a guy who would put up 60/750/5 for a full season.... I give you the below.2004:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Deion Branch		 |  9 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   35   454  13.0   4 || Troy Brown		   | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   17   184  10.8   1 || David Givens		 | 15 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   56   874  15.6   3 || Bethel Johnson	   | 13 |	2	 8   4.0   0  |   10   174  17.4   1 || David Patten		 | 16 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   44   800  18.2   7 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

2005:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Deion Branch		 | 16 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   78   998  12.8   5 || Troy Brown		   | 13 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   39   466  11.9   2 || Brandon Childress	|  1 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	3	32  10.7   0 || Andre Davis		  |  9 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	9   190  21.1   1 || Tim Dwight		   | 16 |	4	11   2.8   0  |   19   332  17.5   3 || David Givens		 | 13 |	2	13   6.5   0  |   59   738  12.5   2 || Bethel Johnson	   | 11 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	4	67  16.8   1 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

2006:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Troy Brown		   | 16 |	2	18   9.0   0  |   43   384   8.9   4 || Reche Caldwell	   | 16 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   61   760  12.5   4 || Brandon Childress	|  2 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	2	 7   3.5   0 || Doug Gabriel		 | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   25   344  13.8   3 || Jabar Gaffney		| 10 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   11   142  12.9   1 || Chad Jackson		 | 12 |	4	22   5.5   0  |   13   152  11.7   3 || Kelvin Kight		 |  4 |	1	 8   8.0   0  |	1	 9   9.0   0 || Jonathan Smith	   |  2 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	0	 0   0.0   0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

 

[sirpurr]

He was a great player in my league last year. 1 point for every 10 return yards. If he returns kicks this year and gets a few catches could be nice player to have......

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Bottom line is if you draft Randy Moss, take Welker late for a bit of insurance. Welker in the 16th is not a bad pick. If he doesn't pan out after first three weeks, cut him.

Why? A #2 quality WR on New England is pretty much roster fodder. He ain't Randy Moss, and even then I think a few folks have wishful thinking that he'll put up numbers like he did Minnesota on the turf with Culpepper's "Bombs Away" style of deep ball.Why hedge with a guy who would put up 60/750/5 for a full season.... I give you the below.2004:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Deion Branch		 |  9 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   35   454  13.0   4 || Troy Brown		   | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   17   184  10.8   1 || David Givens		 | 15 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   56   874  15.6   3 || Bethel Johnson	   | 13 |	2	 8   4.0   0  |   10   174  17.4   1 || David Patten		 | 16 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   44   800  18.2   7 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

2005:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Deion Branch		 | 16 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   78   998  12.8   5 || Troy Brown		   | 13 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   39   466  11.9   2 || Brandon Childress	|  1 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	3	32  10.7   0 || Andre Davis		  |  9 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	9   190  21.1   1 || Tim Dwight		   | 16 |	4	11   2.8   0  |   19   332  17.5   3 || David Givens		 | 13 |	2	13   6.5   0  |   59   738  12.5   2 || Bethel Johnson	   | 11 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	4	67  16.8   1 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

2006:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Troy Brown		   | 16 |	2	18   9.0   0  |   43   384   8.9   4 || Reche Caldwell	   | 16 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   61   760  12.5   4 || Brandon Childress	|  2 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	2	 7   3.5   0 || Doug Gabriel		 | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   25   344  13.8   3 || Jabar Gaffney		| 10 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   11   142  12.9   1 || Chad Jackson		 | 12 |	4	22   5.5   0  |   13   152  11.7   3 || Kelvin Kight		 |  4 |	1	 8   8.0   0  |	1	 9   9.0   0 || Jonathan Smith	   |  2 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	0	 0   0.0   0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

I understand and agree to some extent. But if I can draft a guy in the 16th or later who will catch 60/750/5, I'll do it every time.

 

[gheemony]

No one has answered the all important question: "Will he be both KR and PR this year?"

 

[shakeybarn]

Bottom line is if you draft Randy Moss, take Welker late for a bit of insurance. Welker in the 16th is not a bad pick. If he doesn't pan out after first three weeks, cut him.

Why? A #2 quality WR on New England is pretty much roster fodder. He ain't Randy Moss, and even then I think a few folks have wishful thinking that he'll put up numbers like he did Minnesota on the turf with Culpepper's "Bombs Away" style of deep ball.Why hedge with a guy who would put up 60/750/5 for a full season.... I give you the below.2004:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Deion Branch		 |  9 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   35   454  13.0   4 || Troy Brown		   | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   17   184  10.8   1 || David Givens		 | 15 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   56   874  15.6   3 || Bethel Johnson	   | 13 |	2	 8   4.0   0  |   10   174  17.4   1 || David Patten		 | 16 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   44   800  18.2   7 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

2005:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Deion Branch		 | 16 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   78   998  12.8   5 || Troy Brown		   | 13 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   39   466  11.9   2 || Brandon Childress	|  1 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	3	32  10.7   0 || Andre Davis		  |  9 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	9   190  21.1   1 || Tim Dwight		   | 16 |	4	11   2.8   0  |   19   332  17.5   3 || David Givens		 | 13 |	2	13   6.5   0  |   59   738  12.5   2 || Bethel Johnson	   | 11 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	4	67  16.8   1 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

2006:Wide Receivers

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Troy Brown		   | 16 |	2	18   9.0   0  |   43   384   8.9   4 || Reche Caldwell	   | 16 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   61   760  12.5   4 || Brandon Childress	|  2 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	2	 7   3.5   0 || Doug Gabriel		 | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   25   344  13.8   3 || Jabar Gaffney		| 10 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   11   142  12.9   1 || Chad Jackson		 | 12 |	4	22   5.5   0  |   13   152  11.7   3 || Kelvin Kight		 |  4 |	1	 8   8.0   0  |	1	 9   9.0   0 || Jonathan Smith	   |  2 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	0	 0   0.0   0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

I understand and agree to some extent. But if I can draft a guy in the 16th or later who will catch 60/750/5, I'll do it every time.

Ok to each his own. That late, I'm looking for the lotto ticket... this year's Colston/Boldin or stud backup in Leonard. I'll get depth in 9-12th rounds. And I realized after I posted, I was a bit generous.... more like 60/700/3 or 4Problem with New England WRs... in thinking of some of those stats I posted... is they oft have multiple TD games... so of the 4-8 TDs... it's tough to time, much less find a least some consistency, and by that I'm mean an "off day" being 5 for 50. We're talking 1 for 8.

 

[AnonymousBob]

No one has answered the all important question: "Will he be both KR and PR this year?"

I'm not sure. If your league gives points for return yardage then Welker has a very strong chance to finish as a top 30 wr. For a guy you can get in the last few rounds of your draft, that's amazingly good value. If you do not receive points for return yardage then Welker isn't anything other than a vaguely decent fill-in.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

No one has answered the all important question: "Will he be both KR and PR this year?"

I'm not sure. If your league gives points for return yardage then Welker has a very strong chance to finish as a top 30 wr. For a guy you can get in the last few rounds of your draft, that's amazingly good value. If you do not receive points for return yardage then Welker isn't anything other than a vaguely decent fill-in.

I'm thinking of starting him over Santonio Holmes next week.