the worst slot to pick from in any draft is.... (1 Viewer)

[joey]

The worst slot to pick from in any draft is the one just below the cut-off of one of your major tiers.

(stating the obvious, I know).

It's funny. I'm posting this because in all of the "I have the X pick in a Y team draft", the opinions

vary soooo much (as they should) in regard to if slot X is a good or bad place to draft from. Of course,

it's all dependent on each person's individual rankings and ***tiers***.

My personal example, (I'm only in 12 team leagues this year)

- I like the 1,2,3 slot since I'll get one of the 3 RB studs (LT,SJax,LJ).

- I really dislike the 4 slot since I have Gore there but I'm reluctant to take him (injury and Norv gone).

- I dislike the 5 slot since I have 3 guys all ranked nearly the same in the next tier (FWP,Addai,SA)

so I'd rather have the 6th or especially the 7th slot to get better value.

- For the same reason, I love the 8 or 9 slot since I think many have Westbrook ranked higher than I do

(non-ppr leagues) so I'm confident one of FWP/Addai/SA will drop to me or I'm VERY happy taking Rudi here.

- The 10 slot is my cut off right now and I have Henry there and I think he'll do very well (I quite possibly

will have him ranked a little higher once end of August rolls around).

- For me, the 11 and 12 slots are the ones I dislike most this year. If I assume Worst Case Scenario and

all of the above mentioned RBs are taken, I'm stuck with Maroney (scared of him right now), Bush (non-ppr

so I'd rather not have him as my RB1) and I don't want to grab Manning there (sorry, I don't like how

my teams look when I take Manning anywhere before the mid of the 2nd round).

So there's my take on all of these "pick X in a Y team draft" threads. Don't get me wrong, they all start

very interesting and valuable discussions, but I think they all come down to what I said at the top of this post.

ETA: I've already written a novel, but of course a draft is more than the 1st round. I like the 6-9 slots this year

cuz I like the RB2 options that come back in the 2nd and the WRs available in the 3rd and 4th round. etc etc

 

[Penguin]

32nd, it's just brutal watching all the talent go off the board in the first 31 picks, just ask the Colts.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Obviously, everyone wants LT or S Jax or elite studs like that. But I will always have the attitude that I can win regardless of where I draft. If you are a good manager, you will have a good team from any draft positions. You can get value from 1.01 to the last pick. Obviously the higher picks have an advantage, but the owners that win are the owners who find value.

 

[FantasyTrader]

The problem with attempting to determine what position is best in advance is that a fantasy draft is a living thing. You could loath the 4th pick but if LJ slips beyond the top 3 (not unheard of) then you're loving life. Believe Alexander comes back as a top 5 back this year and he somehow slips to you at 10 where you think he's insane value? Boom...all of a sudden the 10 spot is your best friend. League prone to huge runs and Gates slips to you at 31 overall where you see him as great value? All of a sudden you're loving life at #7.

But none of this can be predetermined. Also, I see people spending SO much time choosing between 1st round names when it all has very VERY liitle to do with your teams overall success or failure. It's the equivelent of going on to a poker forum and asking how do you properly play flopped quads? You want to really gain some knowledge? Learn how to properly play top pair/weak kicker out of position. The 7th, 8th, 9th rounds of your draft are the top pair/weak kicker of fantasy football. Trying to determine who will be a 1st round bust is a futile waste of your time. Because "most" of the time, 1st round busts become busts very suddenly, violently and without warning. On Monday, they are a God and on Tuesday you're dumping them on the waiver wire. And of the 1st round names who do NOT bust - I think people seriously underestimate what fine hairs we are trying to split here. Gore/Addai? Parker/Westbrook? Henry/McGahee? We can (and have had) very intelligent discussions that go 70-100 posts deep spewing stats, offseason defections, additions all supporting one side or the other without REALLY solving anything.

We only need to look at what happens to ourselves INTERNALLY when we read a thread like "Who should I take from the 7 hole?" Speaking for myself personally - here's what happens. I read post for post and silently nod in agreement to everything I agree with or feel my time was wasted on posts that fall outside of my predetermined judgement. We seek posts and stats that further cement and engrain what we already "know" and discount the other stuff.

Want some enlightenment that will really make a difference? Open up a thread titled "Tennessee backfiled situation" or "My thoughts about the Jags passing game" with an open mind. Those are the threads that help shape the 5th-10th rounds of your draft where championships are won. Whoa - just read back over this - sorry I didn't mean this to turn into a mini-rant.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

1.08-1.10 is more difficult for me than other spots. I think the earlier spots are easier to draft. But, I would like to think I can do well from any spot.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Too me.. I landed the #3 in a redraft and couldn't move down for anything.... that was the worst; I didn't want LJ (too worried about KC's O). All I wanted was a swap in 1sts and 2nds but no; I had to click on LJ and close my eyes.

If you land 4 or 5 and are not liking those RBs... just take Manning.

 

[Warpig]

1.08-1.10 is more difficult for me than other spots. I think the earlier spots are easier to draft. But, I would like to think I can do well from any spot.

I despised picking from the 11th spot in a 16 teamer this year. Ofcourse, I know I can build a solid team from any draft slot, but it's easier to adjust when you're picking from the top 5 or bottom 2 or 3. Top 5 is obvious, bottom 2 or 3 is ok because you get two picks fairly close to each other.For example, in my modified PPR (.50 pt per rec for RB's, 1pt per for WR's, 1.5 pt per for TE's) 16 team league (roster in my sig) I was just hoping that a young stud RB would fall to me at 11. Well, I did end up getting Maroney whom I targeted there. However, right after that, the WR's started flying off the board. In this league you can start 2 - 3 WR's. So since all the WR's were going, I decided to load up on RB's instead of reach for 2nd - 3rd tier WR's. Using this strategy, I took Chester Taylor with my 2nd pick. Ofcourse this was before the draft and I figured MIN would draft a WR or QB since they just signed CT. To my horror AP/AD fell to them at #8 so there goes that strategy. In hindsight, I could have taken Henry, but this was before he was traded to DEN and he was stuck in the RBBC in TEN. I thought I got a possible steal picking up Stallworth where I did, but as luck would have it...instead of getting resigned by Philly (which I was hoping he would), he goes to NE. Which is fine...until they bring in Randy Moss too! So if you don't think picking from the 11th spot in a 16 team league is bad...just look at my roster.

 

[faux_bear]

joey.

I've spent the last few days lamenting my number 10 spot. Normally I wouldn't, except that Addai, Maroney, and Travis Henry are all keepers in our league, which will severely limit the RB options available to me at that spot. Assuming the tp 9 picks all take RB's, I'd be left looking at a McGahee, Ronnie Brown, or Portis at my spot, or else punt on RB and go with Manning or a WR. In any event, yours is an uplifting post and I agree with everything you said, particularly the points about how accurately sorting RB's within tiers (and especially these characters - Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Clinton Portis, Jones-Drew) can be a futile endeavor.

and to warpig...man, really, that's why you dont have drafts that early in the year. Try to get that changed.

 

[Neo]

The problem with attempting to determine what position is best in advance is that a fantasy draft is a living thing. You could loath the 4th pick but if LJ slips beyond the top 3 (not unheard of) then you're loving life. Believe Alexander comes back as a top 5 back this year and he somehow slips to you at 10 where you think he's insane value? Boom...all of a sudden the 10 spot is your best friend. League prone to huge runs and Gates slips to you at 31 overall where you see him as great value? All of a sudden you're loving life at #7. But none of this can be predetermined. Also, I see people spending SO much time choosing between 1st round names when it all has very VERY liitle to do with your teams overall success or failure. It's the equivelent of going on to a poker forum and asking how do you properly play flopped quads? You want to really gain some knowledge? Learn how to properly play top pair/weak kicker out of position. The 7th, 8th, 9th rounds of your draft are the top pair/weak kicker of fantasy football. Trying to determine who will be a 1st round bust is a futile waste of your time. Because "most" of the time, 1st round busts become busts very suddenly, violently and without warning. On Monday, they are a God and on Tuesday you're dumping them on the waiver wire. And of the 1st round names who do NOT bust - I think people seriously underestimate what fine hairs we are trying to split here. Gore/Addai? Parker/Westbrook? Henry/McGahee? We can (and have had) very intelligent discussions that go 70-100 posts deep spewing stats, offseason defections, additions all supporting one side or the other without REALLY solving anything. We only need to look at what happens to ourselves INTERNALLY when we read a thread like "Who should I take from the 7 hole?" Speaking for myself personally - here's what happens. I read post for post and silently nod in agreement to everything I agree with or feel my time was wasted on posts that fall outside of my predetermined judgement. We seek posts and stats that further cement and engrain what we already "know" and discount the other stuff. Want some enlightenment that will really make a difference? Open up a thread titled "Tennessee backfiled situation" or "My thoughts about the Jags passing game" with an open mind. Those are the threads that help shape the 5th-10th rounds of your draft where championships are won. Whoa - just read back over this - sorry I didn't mean this to turn into a mini-rant.

Great stuff buddy. Totally agree with everything you said.

 

[crimsonrebel]

The deeper the league, the more i hate drafting later. Funny how everone says draft position and yet those top three spots never trade down.