BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
One for the dogs
There's plenty of upset potential in Week One
By Mike Wilkening
Sept. 6, 2006
Last season, favorites reigned. You may have even won some money because of this trend by playing the pointspreads. Hopefully you bought your significant other something nice.
But I’m not here to talk about your money, or Vegas’ money. Let’s talk about upsets for a few minutes.
If 2005 was a season for the favorites, perhaps Week One will kick off a campaign marked by the underdogs scoring surprises at every turn. The stage seems set for a shocker or two — or maybe more.
Let’s look at some of the prime candidates:
1) Indianapolis (-3½) at N.Y. Giants — The consensus is that the Colts will roll to yet another AFC South title, and that they will romp at the Meadowlands in the season opener. There’s no doubt the Colts can deal a devastating blow to a team’s psyche. Remember how they pushed around the Ravens last September? We knew then and there the Ravens were a non-starter. But are the Colts capable of pushing around the Giants, who were 7-1 at home last season? I don’t get that sense. The Colts look a little wobbly entering this one. The running game is a question mark, as is the health of PK Adam Vinatieri. Colts QB Peyton Manning will get his yards — I’m not worried about a playoff hangover — but will he get enough help?
2) Denver (-3½) at St. Louis — Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan hasn’t publicly named a starting running back for the season opener. Mike Bell or Tatum Bell? Does it matter, considering this looks like a share-carries situation? In any event, the starter will face a Rams defense that’s undoubtedly spent the offseason being schooled on anchoring vs. the run by new defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. For a second straight year, Scott Linehan opens his season vs. Denver. In 2005, his Dolphins offense racked up 426 yards and 34 points against the Broncos. He has better offensive personnel as St. Louis’ head coach. This promises to be a shootout, and the Rams have the stuff to end up on the winning end.
3) Philadelphia (-4½) at Houston — There’s an easy case to be made for the Texans being up against it vs. the Eagles. Philadelphia DEs Darren Howard and Jevon Kearse could give OTs Charles Spencer (a rookie making his first NFL start) and Zach Wiegert major problems. Making matters worse, Houston’s weak LB corps has to contend with RB Brian Westbrook circling out of the backfield. So why do I believe the Texans have a reasonable chance at scoring an upset? For one, I expect the Texans to be able to run the ball successfully. For two, Houston’s improved defensive line will give Philadelphia’s offensive line a tougher matchup than expected. I know there’s a lot of sentiment about the Eagles bouncing back after their lost ’05 campaign; while they very well could capture the NFC East, I’m not ready to predict a Week One rout vs. what will be a game Houston squad. The Texans will hang tough, and I won’t be stunned if they score a big upset.
4) Seattle (-6) at Detroit — The Seahawks are formidable, but the Lions should be one of the NFL’s most improved teams from a season ago. Detroit promises to be a more focused team that will be less apt to wilt defensively. The offense will also be better, if for no other reason than starting QB Jon Kitna will make good decisions with the ball and provide strong leadership. Could the Seahawks run away with this one? Sure. But I suspect the Lions will put up a strong fight on both sides of the ball. Rod Marinelli’s club will take a chunk out of some contender this season, perhaps sooner than later.
There's plenty of upset potential in Week One
By Mike Wilkening
Sept. 6, 2006
Last season, favorites reigned. You may have even won some money because of this trend by playing the pointspreads. Hopefully you bought your significant other something nice.
But I’m not here to talk about your money, or Vegas’ money. Let’s talk about upsets for a few minutes.
If 2005 was a season for the favorites, perhaps Week One will kick off a campaign marked by the underdogs scoring surprises at every turn. The stage seems set for a shocker or two — or maybe more.
Let’s look at some of the prime candidates:
1) Indianapolis (-3½) at N.Y. Giants — The consensus is that the Colts will roll to yet another AFC South title, and that they will romp at the Meadowlands in the season opener. There’s no doubt the Colts can deal a devastating blow to a team’s psyche. Remember how they pushed around the Ravens last September? We knew then and there the Ravens were a non-starter. But are the Colts capable of pushing around the Giants, who were 7-1 at home last season? I don’t get that sense. The Colts look a little wobbly entering this one. The running game is a question mark, as is the health of PK Adam Vinatieri. Colts QB Peyton Manning will get his yards — I’m not worried about a playoff hangover — but will he get enough help?
2) Denver (-3½) at St. Louis — Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan hasn’t publicly named a starting running back for the season opener. Mike Bell or Tatum Bell? Does it matter, considering this looks like a share-carries situation? In any event, the starter will face a Rams defense that’s undoubtedly spent the offseason being schooled on anchoring vs. the run by new defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. For a second straight year, Scott Linehan opens his season vs. Denver. In 2005, his Dolphins offense racked up 426 yards and 34 points against the Broncos. He has better offensive personnel as St. Louis’ head coach. This promises to be a shootout, and the Rams have the stuff to end up on the winning end.
3) Philadelphia (-4½) at Houston — There’s an easy case to be made for the Texans being up against it vs. the Eagles. Philadelphia DEs Darren Howard and Jevon Kearse could give OTs Charles Spencer (a rookie making his first NFL start) and Zach Wiegert major problems. Making matters worse, Houston’s weak LB corps has to contend with RB Brian Westbrook circling out of the backfield. So why do I believe the Texans have a reasonable chance at scoring an upset? For one, I expect the Texans to be able to run the ball successfully. For two, Houston’s improved defensive line will give Philadelphia’s offensive line a tougher matchup than expected. I know there’s a lot of sentiment about the Eagles bouncing back after their lost ’05 campaign; while they very well could capture the NFC East, I’m not ready to predict a Week One rout vs. what will be a game Houston squad. The Texans will hang tough, and I won’t be stunned if they score a big upset.
4) Seattle (-6) at Detroit — The Seahawks are formidable, but the Lions should be one of the NFL’s most improved teams from a season ago. Detroit promises to be a more focused team that will be less apt to wilt defensively. The offense will also be better, if for no other reason than starting QB Jon Kitna will make good decisions with the ball and provide strong leadership. Could the Seahawks run away with this one? Sure. But I suspect the Lions will put up a strong fight on both sides of the ball. Rod Marinelli’s club will take a chunk out of some contender this season, perhaps sooner than later.
