Thinking out loud about the Jimmy Johnson Chart (1 Viewer)

[noneother]

Of course, there are more probowlers drafted in the first round. BUT, whats the ratio of probowlers to each of the (now 6?) rounds?

Wouldn't that be a better chart ? Not 100% but closer?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Of course, there are more probowlers drafted in the first round. BUT, whats the ratio of probowlers to each of the (now 6?) rounds?Wouldn't that be a better chart ? Not 100% but closer?

With a rookie salary cap now in place the valuations on those draft picks have completely changed.I'd dare say that the picks are now more disparate, with 1.01 worth more than it used to be on that chart (i.e. if it was worth 1.03, 2.03 and 3.03, which it is about equal on the original chart, it is worth more now).

 

[noneother]

I completely disregarded the new agreement. Should hold well for the previous and now meaningless compare of previous years Oh well..more valuable tho seems pretty cool... And more affordable in cap $$ so more desirable?

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527

 

[noneother]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527

Thanks! Exactly where my mind was wandering!

 

[cstu]

Here's another analysis.

 

[stbugs]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527

Chase, that was pretty cool, but I am not sure I understand your value of players. You said Peyton was worth 133 and Keyshawn was 77. I am not sure how that is rated, because I can't see how Keyshawn has 60% of the value of Peyton. While Keyshawn was a solid WR, I can't imagine how Keyshawn contributed 60% of Manning to his team's overall success. Maybe I am wrong and you have stats that dispute it, but I am just not sure I would ever value a WR anywhere close to a QB some have called one of the best ever. Maybe I am a bit biased because I have always thought a franchise QB was way more important than any other position, especially as a Panthers fan where Cam came in and took the worst offense in the NFL and made it a top 5 offense. Steve Smith has had as good a career as Keyshawn and he's never had close to the impact that Cam did last year and I would bet 100% of Panther fans would start a team with a young Cam over a young Steve Smith. Same with Manning and Keyshawn and I think if Keyshawn was 60% as valuable as Manning, it wouldn't be that cut and dry.

 

[cstu]

Counter to the Harvard chart by Bloom.

 

[stbugs]

Of course, there are more probowlers drafted in the first round. BUT, whats the ratio of probowlers to each of the (now 6?) rounds?Wouldn't that be a better chart ? Not 100% but closer?

With a rookie salary cap now in place the valuations on those draft picks have completely changed.I'd dare say that the picks are now more disparate, with 1.01 worth more than it used to be on that chart (i.e. if it was worth 1.03, 2.03 and 3.03, which it is about equal on the original chart, it is worth more now).

So glad as a Carolina fan that we got the 1.01 with Cam after the new agreement. Before the new agreement, the top picks were almost negative in value regardless of performance. If you are paying Bradford and Sanchez similar $$$ to Brady, Manning and Rodgers, you really aren't getting good value for the team salary cap wise and if they aren't as good, then you are already behind the 8-ball salary cap wise. Its kind of like paying the top pick what they would get if they were a pro-bowl vet, but they could still be a bust.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=527

Chase, that was pretty cool, but I am not sure I understand your value of players. You said Peyton was worth 133 and Keyshawn was 77. I am not sure how that is rated, because I can't see how Keyshawn has 60% of the value of Peyton. While Keyshawn was a solid WR, I can't imagine how Keyshawn contributed 60% of Manning to his team's overall success. Maybe I am wrong and you have stats that dispute it, but I am just not sure I would ever value a WR anywhere close to a QB some have called one of the best ever. Maybe I am a bit biased because I have always thought a franchise QB was way more important than any other position, especially as a Panthers fan where Cam came in and took the worst offense in the NFL and made it a top 5 offense. Steve Smith has had as good a career as Keyshawn and he's never had close to the impact that Cam did last year and I would bet 100% of Panther fans would start a team with a young Cam over a young Steve Smith. Same with Manning and Keyshawn and I think if Keyshawn was 60% as valuable as Manning, it wouldn't be that cut and dry.

For starters, keep in mind that this was 4 years ago, so it was before three more elite Peyton Manning seasons.That said, it's called approximate value for a reason. It's great for a study like this where you want to study thousands of players. Will it miss on some? Sure. But generally speaking, a player with an AV of 100 will be better than a player with an AV of 85, who will be better than someone with an AV of 70, etc. The goal was never to decide that Johnson was worth 60% of Manning or anything like that, but rather to assign a value to each player that would be more helpful than say, games played or seasons starting or pro bowls.Through 2007, you could note that Manning had started for 10 seasons and Johnson had started for 11. Does that mean looking at seasons starting is a bad way to measure players?Through 2007, Manning had started 160 games and Johnson 162. Does that make games started a bad way to measure players?Through 2007, Manning had been to 8 pro bowls and Johnson 3. Does that make Pro Bowls great? Maybe that works in this example, but there are countless ones when it won't.I don't even know how I would go about deciding what ratio of Manning Keyshawn was worth; suffice it to say, I think you mostly want to focus on groups of players with AV. For what it's worth, Manning's AV is now 159.