Third year breakout WR myth (1 Viewer)

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Here are some third year TE for 2010

Dustin Keller

John Carlson

Fred Davis

 

[akaoni]

Here are some third year TE for 2010Dustin KellerJohn CarlsonFred Davis

Yes, I believe it is also a myth that 3rd year TEs are more likely to break out.

 

[az_prof]

It isn't a "myth" about WRs. The third year is the year where the most WRs do break out. Only, it isn't the ONLY year. Some rookies have great years, though not many. Some second year WRs, though less than third year. Years two and three together account for the lion's share of WR break out years. Year four still have a reasonable amount, but significantly less. And by year five, the odds are pretty high. Is that a myth? I don't think so. But it isn't a "law" either. There is a range and third year is the peak of that range.

TEs? I have never seen the statistical analysis, but I doubt if it would be true of them. First of all, there are fewer fantasy relevent TEs and even fewer of them ever become consistent studs. TEs tend to develop pretty late in general.

 

[ZWK]

TE is different because there's usually only one on the field at a time. Fred Davis broke out last year after Cooley got hurt, but this year he's breaking back in.

 

[oukurt]

I actually read somewhere that the 3rd year WR breakout is more of a myth. There was more evedince for the 2nd year breakout.

 

[SSOG]

It isn't a "myth" about WRs. The third year is the year where the most WRs do break out. Only, it isn't the ONLY year. Some rookies have great years, though not many. Some second year WRs, though less than third year. Years two and three together account for the lion's share of WR break out years. Year four still have a reasonable amount, but significantly less. And by year five, the odds are pretty high. Is that a myth? I don't think so. But it isn't a "law" either. There is a range and third year is the peak of that range.TEs? I have never seen the statistical analysis, but I doubt if it would be true of them. First of all, there are fewer fantasy relevent TEs and even fewer of them ever become consistent studs. TEs tend to develop pretty late in general.

I don't know if it's that "TEs develop late", I think it's more that "TEs struggle the most as rookies". Gates broke out in year 2. Sharpe broke out in years 3/4. Gonzo broke out in years 2/3. Witten broke out in year 2. Coates broke out in year 3. Winslow Sr. broke out in year 2. Ozzie Newsome broke out in year 2. Anecdotally, It seems like most of the all-time great TEs broke out very early (usually year 2).

 

[Modog814]

I actually read somewhere that the 3rd year WR breakout is more of a myth. There was more evedince for the 2nd year breakout.

I think it's more of a guideline than a rule and many may start seeing it as a myth since more and more 1st and 2nd year players are breaking out. One theory: Offenses that are run in college often didn't adequately prepare WR's for the pro offenses they'd be playing in. So it took them a year or two to develop and learn the offense (think gimicky offenses in college, wish-bone, options, super spread out offenses, things that just don't translate well to the pros for one reason or another). Recently however, college's have been running much more pro-friendly offenses, which give WR's an opportunity to learn the style of offense before stepping onto a professional field, resulting in earlier "breakouts".

 

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