This year's First Round Fools Gold (2 Viewers)

[Raiderfan32904]

Every year, there is guaranteed to be someone drafted in the first round that not only is a bust at his ADP, but is eventually relegated to the bench while your FF season went up in flames.

Last year, I recall Forte drafted in the top 5, LT2, and even Slaton were drafted in the first round. Without listing subscriber content or ADP, who do you think is the most likely first round pick that will make your team go down the toilet?

 

[NeverEnough]

Ray Rice

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Calvin Johnson

 

[bucksoh]

CJ

 

[Raider Nation]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

 

[SproutDaddy]

You guys really expect Calvin to be a 1st rd pick? It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up producing like one, but it would surprise me to see someone take him in the 1st. I considered myself lucky to get him in round 3 last year.

 

[Pickle Rody]

You guys really expect Calvin to be a 1st rd pick? It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up producing like one, but it would surprise me to see someone take him in the 1st. I considered myself lucky to get him in round 3 last year.

I've seen him drafted in the first round on numerous occasions this year already. 12-teams and up. I wouldn't touch him there, for various reasons, but others will.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Steven Jackson. This is the year the miles start to affect him.

 

[Raider Nation]

Steven Jackson. This is the year the miles start to affect him.

Not to mention the rookie QB and lack of blocking.

 

[slayer666]

Steven Jackson. This is the year the miles start to affect him.

S-Jacks is definitely on my DND (in the first round) list.

 

[huthut]

Steven Jackson and Mendenhall

Talent wise Jackson is a first round pick, unfortunately he is on the rams and won't get many opportunities to score and the box will be stacked. Mendenhall is just an average RB, I had him last year and he reminds me of Kevin Smith. He just plods along, without much burst or power. I have a feeling the Steelers are going to have a pretty bad year, the passing game and offensive line will not be as good, so there will be less to take the pressure off the running game.

 

[leave a whisper]

Fitz .... no way i touch him in round 1 (or 2) this year

and it has nothing to with him, its the team/situation

 

[rufan]

Ray Rice

Barring injury, Ray Rice is a lock for the top 10. In PPR he is a stud and likely top 5 back. There is absolutely no reason to think he will bust...

 

[gigantor]

Ray Rice

Barring injury, Ray Rice is a lock for the top 10. In PPR he is a stud and likely top 5 back. There is absolutely no reason to think he will bust...

thanks. now i will avoid him

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

Receptions are probably the single most difficult thing for a running back to maintain over the course of a few years, especially when they're not specifically a "receiving back" like Reggie Bush.-Steven Jackson was a 90 catch guy in his breakout season. Then 38 the next year, 40 the next year, and he's stuck around that for the majority of his career.

-Ahman Green was a 70+ catch guy. Within 2 years he was consistently catching in the low 40's every year.

-Shaun Alexander was a 60+ catch guy when he broke out. That immediately dropped to 40 the next year, then 20 the year after that. By the time they made the Super Bowl, the O/U on his number of receptions in the game was 0.5

-I think everyone remembers LT catching 100 balls in 2003, what about after that? 53, 51, and so on the next few years.

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Mendenhall, because his O-line reeks to high heaven. I see lots of nailed in the backfield in his future.

 

[Blackjacks]

I WILL NOT DRAFT JAMAAL CHARLES IN ANY DRAFT THIS YEAR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[TeamSnooki]

I'm not taking S-Jax in the first round.

I don't want my 1st rounder to have both an injury risk and a lousy offense to overcome.

 

[Raider Nation]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

Receptions are probably the single most difficult thing for a running back to maintain over the course of a few years, especially when they're not specifically a "receiving back" like Reggie Bush.-Steven Jackson was a 90 catch guy in his breakout season. Then 38 the next year, 40 the next year, and he's stuck around that for the majority of his career.

-Ahman Green was a 70+ catch guy. Within 2 years he was consistently catching in the low 40's every year.

-Shaun Alexander was a 60+ catch guy when he broke out. That immediately dropped to 40 the next year, then 20 the year after that. By the time they made the Super Bowl, the O/U on his number of receptions in the game was 0.5

-I think everyone remembers LT catching 100 balls in 2003, what about after that? 53, 51, and so on the next few years.

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

After Roger Craig had 71 receptions in 1984, he had 92, 81, 66, & 76 catches the next four years.After Marshall Faulk had 86 receptions in 1998, he had 87, 81, 83 & 80 catches the next four years.

After Brian Westbrook had 73 receptions in 2004, he had 61, 77, 90 & 54 (in 14 games) catches the next four years.

We can see who can find the most examples of each extreme if you want to.

 

[Manster]

another vote for mendenhall.

 

[bigern1000]

And another vote for SJax...

 

[bostonfred]

Miles Austin

 

[GOroute]

S-Jax. Young team, line, qb, offense. yikes. Only way he doesnt struggle is if they dump it off to him 6-8 times per game.

Mendenhall is another concern cause of the line and offseason issues for that offense. Ben, Holmes now gone, Hines not getting younger.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

Another Vote for Mendenhall

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Calvin, 1st or early 2

 

[Pictus Cat]

I guess a not vote for SJax, traded 3 1st rounders & Crabtree in a PPR for SJax/Schaub, because I

a. Beleive he will perform for the next 3 - 4 years

b. I'm masochistic

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I am voting for Reggie Wayne.

I think this year, the combined talents of Garcon, Collie, and now a healthy Gonzales will be too much to overcome. He won't find anyone's fantasy bench, but from where you draft him, he will be a major disappointment imo. I still love his talent, just a hunch.

My 2nd choice is Shonn Greene. I really like him, but the hype on him is getting crazy. He hasn't proven he can tote the rock for 300 plus carries, and yet everyone (including myself) thinks its a sure thing. He caught all of zero passes last year. He's a roll of the dice. But for now I am blinded, and will probably jump on him in the late round.

I don't get all the SJax hate in this thread. He is one of the safest (not fool's gold) picks in the first round.

 

[bonesman]

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

The difference between 78 for 700 and 45 for 400 is 90 pts?

 

[anakin]

Miles Austin

Who is taking Miles Austin in the first round? Is it a 16+ team league?

 

[Hoot&HoLLer]

Steven Jackson. This is the year the miles start to affect him.

S-Jacks is definitely on my DND (in the first round) list.

While not at all relating to the subject matter, I wonder if Mendenhall will try to curtail that oft used spin move of his this season.

 

[TBam]

Another vote for Sjax and Mendenhall

 

[zamboni]

Mendenhall is another concern cause of the line and offseason issues for that offense. Ben, Holmes now gone, Hines not getting younger.

The other thing people aren't talking about is Jonathan Dwyer. For some reason he slipped in the draft, but many pundits were projecting him to be one of the first RBs off the board.He's got some talent and while he seems to be no threat to Mendenhall for the forseaable, that could change if Dwyer shows the team brass something while Mendenhall struggles.

 

[bostonfred]

Miles Austin

Who is taking Miles Austin in the first round? Is it a 16+ team league?

Well, yes, these are 16 team leagues. But he went with the 11th, 14th, and 16th picks, so it looks like he's a borderline late first/early second rounder. I want nothing to do with him at that price. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=526779

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=529697

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=530140

 

[Couch Potato]

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

The difference between 78 for 700 and 45 for 400 is 90 pts?

Yes, in every 1.81818181818 PPR league I've ever been in.

 

[shader]

Jamaal Charles, Jamaal Charles, Jamaal Charles

 

[CB31]

Here we go again with Steven Jackson...

I'm casting my votes for Randy Moss and Mendenhall.

 

[moondog]

Ray Rice gets my vote. The addition of Boldin and TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta will also affect Rice's receiving opportunties.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Mendenhall is borderline 1st round but he gets my vote.

I agree but the Colon injury has people laying off him in the 1st now. He went in the 3rd in a recent redraft I was in...still a little high IMO.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

The difference between 78 for 700 and 45 for 400 is 90 pts?

You mean 30+33 isn't 90?Oops.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jamaal Charles, Jamaal Charles, Jamaal Charles

Hey shades, he's been value in the 3rd until now when he starts creeping up the boards. Not sure why anyone thinks he is an avoid, guy was balling last year down the stretch, infusion of talent at OC/DC to help the HC, decent WR1/WR2, OL will imrove some...he's a solid pick IMO.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Larry Fitzgerald would be my 1st vote. AZ is a mess on offense now, folks won't understand how much Warner gone is going to submarine this team, adn they lost a top10 caliber WR in Boldin.

Good Luck, i wish no ill will towards Fitz or those that take him but I would not do it. Let someone else take that risk

 

[gandalas]

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

Ok, where are you getting 90 points? I see 33 points lost from receptions (78-45), plus 30 points lost from yards ([702-400]/10). While I get your point, maybe you should check your math next time? EDIT: Just saw it referred above as well...sorry to pile on!

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

Receptions are probably the single most difficult thing for a running back to maintain over the course of a few years, especially when they're not specifically a "receiving back" like Reggie Bush.-Steven Jackson was a 90 catch guy in his breakout season. Then 38 the next year, 40 the next year, and he's stuck around that for the majority of his career.

-Ahman Green was a 70+ catch guy. Within 2 years he was consistently catching in the low 40's every year.

-Shaun Alexander was a 60+ catch guy when he broke out. That immediately dropped to 40 the next year, then 20 the year after that. By the time they made the Super Bowl, the O/U on his number of receptions in the game was 0.5

-I think everyone remembers LT catching 100 balls in 2003, what about after that? 53, 51, and so on the next few years.

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

After Roger Craig had 71 receptions in 1984, he had 92, 81, 66, & 76 catches the next four years.After Marshall Faulk had 86 receptions in 1998, he had 87, 81, 83 & 80 catches the next four years.

After Brian Westbrook had 73 receptions in 2004, he had 61, 77, 90 & 54 (in 14 games) catches the next four years.

We can see who can find the most examples of each extreme if you want to.

wow....both 's here....that's why this place rocks.........

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Mendy, Fitz, Wayne....

 

[fightingillini]

Most likely Steven Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald.

Regarding SJax, I can't see him scoring 10 TDs this year, so he is going to have to catch 60+ passes and stay healthy all year to keep pace with his ADP.

Fitz - I don't believe in Leinart. I don't see Leinart throwing for over 3300 yards and I don't see him exceeding 22 TD passes. AZ is going to be a run heavy team this year IMO.

 

[sholditch]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

Receptions are probably the single most difficult thing for a running back to maintain over the course of a few years, especially when they're not specifically a "receiving back" like Reggie Bush.-Steven Jackson was a 90 catch guy in his breakout season. Then 38 the next year, 40 the next year, and he's stuck around that for the majority of his career.

-Ahman Green was a 70+ catch guy. Within 2 years he was consistently catching in the low 40's every year.

-Shaun Alexander was a 60+ catch guy when he broke out. That immediately dropped to 40 the next year, then 20 the year after that. By the time they made the Super Bowl, the O/U on his number of receptions in the game was 0.5

-I think everyone remembers LT catching 100 balls in 2003, what about after that? 53, 51, and so on the next few years.

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

Good point, and you don't even bring up that they brought in one of the best underneath route runners in the game in Q. He could definitely steal some receptions from Rice, plus they have two new TEs both of whom should get some receptions.

 

[dagwood]

No one is "bust proof", but I really fail to see how you would classify Rice as "high risk" which is the point of this thread.

 

[Phurfur]

I don't get all the SJax hate in this thread. He is one of the safest (not fool's gold) picks in the first round.

I guess you never owed him. I got sick of checking the inactive list every Sunday Morning. Last year during week 16 he showed up on the inactive list before a 3PM game which left many owners screwed. I need more out of my #1 pick.SJax has played 16 games once in his career.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Are people really claiming that Ray Rice's 1st round value hinges on Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta?

 

[Ray_T]

Steven Jackson. This is the year the miles start to affect him.

Not to mention the rookie QB and lack of blocking.

Yeah, there are lots of factors that scare me about SJax.Love the player, but poor team, poor line, rookie QB and weak defense likely mean the team will abandon the run by the end of the first half in a lot of games.there is a lot of risk here.