This year's First Round Fools Gold (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

Ray Rice gets my vote. The addition of Boldin and TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta will also affect Rice's receiving opportunties.

Cam Cameron is still the OC in Baltimore, right?Rice will be a Top 10 RB. I bet he finishes at #2 (behind Peterson).

My Fool's Gold vote is for Reggie Wayne.

Another great point, he's another Norv Turner. Fantasy football rule #1: Draft Cam's running backs.

 

[C-Bound]

Mendenhall is borderline 1st round but he gets my vote.

Colon injury

Ouch.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I absolutely LOVE the huge run on SJax votes.The primary reasoning is that the team is really bad. I've got a news flash - the team (offense in particular) was HISTORICALLY bad LAST year, and he was still a top 10 RB. So is the team going to get worse? I seriously doubt it. If anything, the team should be a little better, which would indicate an improvement in his 2010 season. The O-line was brutal last year, but they should get some guys healthy and improve there (again, hard to be worse). The other thing folks point to is the QB situation. Not to be a broken record, but do folks really expect the situation to be considerably worse? Bulger is absolutely shell-socked at this point (and who could blame him), so while I don't expect GREAT things out of the rookie, I don't think it's going to be a lot worse than last year either.The logic just isn't there on this general school of thought.I'm starting to think SJax might be the most underrated fantasy RB out there. Based on all of the people refusing to draft him in the 1st, it may very well be possible to get him in the top/mid 2nd which would be a ridiculous steal.

I would agree that he is the most underrated rb if it wasn't for Ryan Grant.I just got SJAX at 2.3, which I was extremely happy about. The guy has already shown he is a monster even with every possible #### situation possible. If anything breaks right, he will put up top 3 numbers.

 

[fightingillini]

3,300 yards is only 206 a game. That's pretty paltry for anyone with weapons like Fitzgerald, Breaston, Doucet, and Hightower/Wells. The Cardinals' TEs don't factor much in the passing game.If Leinart is average and starts all season he should be closer to 225 a game, which is 3,600 yards. If he's awful he's going to get himself replaced by Derek Anderson in a hurry.Larry Fitzgerald is simply a 90/1,300/10 + WR. He just is. I definitely think his overall percentage of the passing pie will increase with Boldin gone and Leinart at QB. The overall passing pie may be smaller, but Fitzgerald will get a bigger slice. 1,400 yards in a 3,600 yard season is 38%. Fitzgerald-1,400Breaston-850Doucet-500Hightower/Wells-600TEs-250Even in your 3,300 yard scenario I could see Fitzgerald going for 1,300 yards with relative ease. Fitzgerald-1,300Breaston-800Doucet-450Hightower/Wells-550TEs-200Couple all of that with the fact that you can basically set your watch to a 10 TD season and he's a first round pick with pretty low risk.

It's very simple. I think Leinart blows. I think AZ will miss Anquan Boldin....he is a heck of a receiver....either Breaston and Doucet are a downgrade at that postion. So you can guarantee that AZ's opponents will double team Fitz all the time. I think Leinart's going to throw a lot of picks this year. I think AZ is going to bring a healthy dose of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. And I think AZ will score less points than in recent years.We are not going to agree.....that's OK. I am certainly willing to eat some crow if Leinart turns out to be a decent NFL QB.I am not saying there's no chance that Fitz gets 1300/10 while Leinart gets 3300/20. It's certainly possible given Fitz is an elite talent. But I am not going to bet a 1st round pick on it, especially at his ADP of 1.8. 2nd round? Absolutely. But if you're not taking a RB in round 1, you need an elite talent that is going to outscore the next tier by a wide margin. 90/1300/10 won't do it IMO. As I said in previous posts......I can see 8 other WRs getting stats close to this and you can get some in the 3rd round.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

Receptions are probably the single most difficult thing for a running back to maintain over the course of a few years, especially when they're not specifically a "receiving back" like Reggie Bush.-Steven Jackson was a 90 catch guy in his breakout season. Then 38 the next year, 40 the next year, and he's stuck around that for the majority of his career.

-Ahman Green was a 70+ catch guy. Within 2 years he was consistently catching in the low 40's every year.

-Shaun Alexander was a 60+ catch guy when he broke out. That immediately dropped to 40 the next year, then 20 the year after that. By the time they made the Super Bowl, the O/U on his number of receptions in the game was 0.5

-I think everyone remembers LT catching 100 balls in 2003, what about after that? 53, 51, and so on the next few years.

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

After Roger Craig had 71 receptions in 1984, he had 92, 81, 66, & 76 catches the next four years.After Marshall Faulk had 86 receptions in 1998, he had 87, 81, 83 & 80 catches the next four years.

After Brian Westbrook had 73 receptions in 2004, he had 61, 77, 90 & 54 (in 14 games) catches the next four years.

We can see who can find the most examples of each extreme if you want to.

That's why I mentioned that this held most true when guys who weren't thought of as primarily receiving backs.Guys like Faulk and Westbrook were receiving backs who also happened to be pretty darn good (or in Faulk's case, elite) at running the football. Both would have had a place in the draft as a 3rd down back even if they were horrible runners.

Ray Rice did not fit this bill at all. Rice had a whopping 37 receptions in his entire college career, in spite of having 910 carries. You can't even say it was the offense that he played in because his predecessor had 207 receptions on the same team. Rice was even often pulled in passing situations. Unlike guys like Faulk and Westbrook, were it not for Rice's success rushing the ball, he likely would have never made an NFL team.

Does anyone know of a site that has college stats dating back more than a few years (ESPN seems to only go back a few years). I would wager that Rice's college receiving statistics are a lot more similar to guys like Alexander and SJax.

Roger Craig I will give you. Of course, that was 1984, and I don't think saying that one guy did it 26 years ago refutes my point that it is difficult to do and doesn't happen very often

What Rice does have going for him is that Cam Cameron is still aboard, and while running backs may not have a good history of repeating these types of seasons, Cam Cameron sure does.

There's also the possiblity that Rice gets a bigger share of the pie next year, though I'm not sure we really saw any indications of that at the end of last season with Mcgahee getting 38 carries (to Rice's 49) in the last three games of the year including the playoffs, which were the most important games of all.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

This thread would have been a lot better as a poll.

I completely disagree. Polls lead to "groupthink", and responses aren't required. It makes the whole debate very antiseptic and does not force you to accept ill-conceived notions of a favorite or non-favorite player. To get these demons out in the open forces us to view this round like beauty contestants without the makeup. A good tire-kicking before we take the plunge.I think all it takes is to avoid the landmines, get a fairly safe and solid producer in the first round. If you end up with a bust, you are done before you know it.

 

[Go deep]

I won't say fool's gold or outright busts, but I predict a lot of people will be very disappointed by Chris Johnson and Ray Rice this year because their expectations are set way too high.

I'm expecting a flood of threads on here complaining the first week that one of these guys doesn't rush for 100 yards or score double digit points.

Anyone expecting 2500 yards again is going to be disappointed, but a guy drafting in the top 3 really has no choice but to take him.

Oh I agree, but that won't stop the complaining even if he rushes for 1,500 yards. I'm reminded of the drafts after Peyton or Brady's 50 TD years, everyone was "reasonably downgrading" their expectations to only 40 TD's the following season.

Difference between CJ and the QB's is with CJ, there really isnt many better options. For those who took Brady or Manning in the first were dong so expecting another 40+ TD season. Not to mention taking a Qb in the first round over a plethora of better options at RB. You are right however, that some people will still complain if CJ doesnt go for over 2000 total yards.

 

[joey]

I assume all this talk of "Fitz isn't a first round pick" is for re-draft league and not a dynasty start up draft.

Honest question for the Fitz voters...

 

[ty247]

I assume all this talk of "Fitz isn't a first round pick" is for re-draft league and not a dynasty start up draft.Honest question for the Fitz voters...

Yeah they are talking redraft

 

[Go deep]

I assume all this talk of "Fitz isn't a first round pick" is for re-draft league and not a dynasty start up draft.Honest question for the Fitz voters...

Yes, although i wouldnt take him in the first of a dynasty, unless it was a PPR, and was at the end of the first.

 

[Manster]

I'm really starting to think Mathews is overvalued quite a bit.

Yea its a good offense, but he's proven nothing. Sproles and Vincent Jackson are the value on this offense.

Personally, i dont see him living up to his ADP this year.

On the flipside, i think Rice is gonna be solid again. I'd gladly pull the trigger on him in the 1st.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'll vote for Chris Johnson

Titans plan to spell him more - they have some 57 other RB's on their roster..

no way he comes close to 2k yards again this season, more like a huge drop to about 1300-1400 rush yards, at best.

I'll bet a case of beer that Michael Turner finishes with more yards and Td's, and finishes the season ranked higher than Chris Johnson. there's also the case about VY - can he really continue his decent play or have opposing defensive coordinators figured him yet? my guess is that they have...

ADP has been a top dog since he came in the league years ago no reason to think he should/would slide....

I dont' get the Ray Rice hatred - Boldin means defenses fear the pass more, meaning less men at the LOS to stop the run.

perhaps fewer recs for Rice, but probably more rushing yards/tds. the loss of recs is probably neglible.

 

[SoopaCee]

i say Wayne

i dont think he will be a complete bust...but he isnt gonna put up 1st rd numbers this year imo

and everyone saying sjax, thank you....i will gladly draft him in the 2nd round while everyone avoids him.....i love me some value

 

[SoopaCee]

I'll vote for Chris Johnson

Titans plan to spell him more - they have some 57 other RB's on their roster..

no way he comes close to 2k yards again this season, more like a huge drop to about 1300-1400 rush yards, at best.

I'll bet a case of beer that Michael Turner finishes with more yards and Td's, and finishes the season ranked higher than Chris Johnson. there's also the case about VY - can he really continue his decent play or have opposing defensive coordinators figured him yet? my guess is that they have...

ADP has been a top dog since he came in the league years ago no reason to think he should/would slide....

I dont' get the Ray Rice hatred - Boldin means defenses fear the pass more, meaning less men at the LOS to stop the run.

perhaps fewer recs for Rice, but probably more rushing yards/tds. the loss of recs is probably neglible.

umm the titans have javon ringer, legarrette blount, stafon johnson and alvin pearman......i dont think ppl have to worry about Cj takin tooo many breaks

also with this huge drop you say.......i dont think ppl will mind him putting up adrian peterson numbers, considering he is also a top 3 pick

 

[Go deep]

I'm really starting to think Mathews is overvalued quite a bit.Yea its a good offense, but he's proven nothing. Sproles and Vincent Jackson are the value on this offense. Personally, i dont see him living up to his ADP this year.

His ADP isnt in the first round.

 

[Grahamburn]

3,300 yards is only 206 a game. That's pretty paltry for anyone with weapons like Fitzgerald, Breaston, Doucet, and Hightower/Wells. The Cardinals' TEs don't factor much in the passing game.

If Leinart is average and starts all season he should be closer to 225 a game, which is 3,600 yards. If he's awful he's going to get himself replaced by Derek Anderson in a hurry.

Larry Fitzgerald is simply a 90/1,300/10 + WR. He just is. I definitely think his overall percentage of the passing pie will increase with Boldin gone and Leinart at QB. The overall passing pie may be smaller, but Fitzgerald will get a bigger slice. 1,400 yards in a 3,600 yard season is 38%.

Fitzgerald-1,400

Breaston-850

Doucet-500

Hightower/Wells-600

TEs-250

Even in your 3,300 yard scenario I could see Fitzgerald going for 1,300 yards with relative ease.

Fitzgerald-1,300

Breaston-800

Doucet-450

Hightower/Wells-550

TEs-200

Couple all of that with the fact that you can basically set your watch to a 10 TD season and he's a first round pick with pretty low risk.

It's very simple. I think Leinart blows. I think AZ will miss Anquan Boldin....he is a heck of a receiver....either Breaston and Doucet are a downgrade at that postion. So you can guarantee that AZ's opponents will double team Fitz all the time. I think Leinart's going to throw a lot of picks this year. I think AZ is going to bring a healthy dose of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. And I think AZ will score less points than in recent years.We are not going to agree.....that's OK. I am certainly willing to eat some crow if Leinart turns out to be a decent NFL QB.

I am not saying there's no chance that Fitz gets 1300/10 while Leinart gets 3300/20. It's certainly possible given Fitz is an elite talent. But I am not going to bet a 1st round pick on it, especially at his ADP of 1.8. 2nd round? Absolutely. But if you're not taking a RB in round 1, you need an elite talent that is going to outscore the next tier by a wide margin. 90/1300/10 won't do it IMO. As I said in previous posts......I can see 8 other WRs getting stats close to this and you can get some in the 3rd round.

We're basically saying the same thing, "Arizona's offense will become more balanced and lose some of it's potency." I completely agree with you there. Boldin's loss for the offense as a whole is a significant one, but I don't think it effects Larry Fitzgerald. As I said before, the pie may get smaller, but Fitz will get a much bigger piece.

You mentioned an increase in double teams because of Boldin's loss. I doubt Fitz has seen single coverage save a handful of snaps since his rookie season. He torches double teams every single week. That shouldn't be anything new.

Larry Fitzgerald's innate ability to catch touchdowns also mitigates some of his risk. He has 68 TDs in 98 career games, including the playoffs. That's around .69 TDs per game. Even if that drops a little he's still right at double figures for touchdowns. Only Fitz and Randy Moss can give you that kind of guaranteed TD production from the WR position.

You say 90/1,300/10 doesn't make Larry Fitzgerald a first round pick, but when it's practically guaranteed, it should.

In the latter half of the first round I don't see any sure things unless you're planning on taking a QB. SJAX, Mendenhall, Moss, DeAngelo, Turner, Wayne... They all have question marks. The RBs all carry an increased injury risk, Wayne is solid yet un-spectacular, Moss disappears at times.

SJAX, Turner(non-ppr) and DeAngelo are the only players I would consider over Fitzgerald if you're picking 7-12.

I'm sure we can "see" a scenario where 8 other WRs put up stats similar to Larry Fitzgerald's, but I don't think you can be as certain of it. That's why he's worthy of a first round pick.

Obviously some people don't think Larry is going to be a fantasy stud this season because of Leinart, but his talent and work ethic make him as much of a sure thing for elite production as anybody else.

 

[fightingillini]

I'll vote for Chris Johnson

Titans plan to spell him more - they have some 57 other RB's on their roster..

no way he comes close to 2k yards again this season, more like a huge drop to about 1300-1400 rush yards, at best.

I'll bet a case of beer that Michael Turner finishes with more yards and Td's, and finishes the season ranked higher than Chris Johnson. there's also the case about VY - can he really continue his decent play or have opposing defensive coordinators figured him yet? my guess is that they have...

ADP has been a top dog since he came in the league years ago no reason to think he should/would slide....

I dont' get the Ray Rice hatred - Boldin means defenses fear the pass more, meaning less men at the LOS to stop the run.

perhaps fewer recs for Rice, but probably more rushing yards/tds. the loss of recs is probably neglible.

Disagree with CJ. Sure TEN will spell him more....he touched the ball 400 times last year. Say he gets 300 carries and 50 receptions. Averaging 4.8 YPC (conservative) and 8 YPR, you get 1840 yards. Put in 12-15 TDs.....you don't think that's worth a top 4 selection? He had a season for the ages....he's going to come down. But he's a good bet for 2000 total yards again.

Agree with Rice - 70 receptions will be hard to match, but he's an integral part of BAL passing game. The addition of Boldin won't change that. I see Rice getting 55-60 rec but more rushing yards and probably a few more rushing TDs. Clearly worth a top 5 pick IMO.

 

[Go deep]

3,300 yards is only 206 a game. That's pretty paltry for anyone with weapons like Fitzgerald, Breaston, Doucet, and Hightower/Wells. The Cardinals' TEs don't factor much in the passing game.

If Leinart is average and starts all season he should be closer to 225 a game, which is 3,600 yards. If he's awful he's going to get himself replaced by Derek Anderson in a hurry.

Larry Fitzgerald is simply a 90/1,300/10 + WR. He just is. I definitely think his overall percentage of the passing pie will increase with Boldin gone and Leinart at QB. The overall passing pie may be smaller, but Fitzgerald will get a bigger slice. 1,400 yards in a 3,600 yard season is 38%.

Fitzgerald-1,400

Breaston-850

Doucet-500

Hightower/Wells-600

TEs-250

Even in your 3,300 yard scenario I could see Fitzgerald going for 1,300 yards with relative ease.

Fitzgerald-1,300

Breaston-800

Doucet-450

Hightower/Wells-550

TEs-200

Couple all of that with the fact that you can basically set your watch to a 10 TD season and he's a first round pick with pretty low risk.

It's very simple. I think Leinart blows. I think AZ will miss Anquan Boldin....he is a heck of a receiver....either Breaston and Doucet are a downgrade at that postion. So you can guarantee that AZ's opponents will double team Fitz all the time. I think Leinart's going to throw a lot of picks this year. I think AZ is going to bring a healthy dose of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. And I think AZ will score less points than in recent years.We are not going to agree.....that's OK. I am certainly willing to eat some crow if Leinart turns out to be a decent NFL QB.

I am not saying there's no chance that Fitz gets 1300/10 while Leinart gets 3300/20. It's certainly possible given Fitz is an elite talent. But I am not going to bet a 1st round pick on it, especially at his ADP of 1.8. 2nd round? Absolutely. But if you're not taking a RB in round 1, you need an elite talent that is going to outscore the next tier by a wide margin. 90/1300/10 won't do it IMO. As I said in previous posts......I can see 8 other WRs getting stats close to this and you can get some in the 3rd round.

We're basically saying the same thing, "Arizona's offense will become more balanced and lose some of it's potency." I completely agree with you there. Boldin's loss for the offense as a whole is a significant one, but I don't think it effects Larry Fitzgerald. As I said before, the pie may get smaller, but Fitz will get a much bigger piece.

You mentioned an increase in double teams because of Boldin's loss. I doubt Fitz has seen single coverage save a handful of snaps since his rookie season. He torches double teams every single week. That shouldn't be anything new.

Larry Fitzgerald's innate ability to catch touchdowns also mitigates some of his risk. He has 68 TDs in 98 career games, including the playoffs. That's around .69 TDs per game. Even if that drops a little he's still right at double figures for touchdowns. Only Fitz and Randy Moss can give you that kind of guaranteed TD production from the WR position.

You say 90/1,300/10 doesn't make Larry Fitzgerald a first round pick, but when it's practically guaranteed, it should.

In the latter half of the first round I don't see any sure things unless you're planning on taking a QB. SJAX, Mendenhall, Moss, DeAngelo, Turner, Wayne... They all have question marks. The RBs all carry an increased injury risk, Wayne is solid yet un-spectacular, Moss disappears at times.

SJAX, Turner(non-ppr) and DeAngelo are the only players I would consider over Fitzgerald if you're picking 7-12.

I'm sure we can "see" a scenario where 8 other WRs put up stats similar to Larry Fitzgerald's, but I don't think you can be as certain of it. That's why he's worthy of a first round pick.

Obviously some people don't think Larry is going to be a fantasy stud this season because of Leinart, but his talent and work ethic make him as much of a sure thing for elite production as anybody else.

So you think its a guarantee that he has 200+ more yards than last year now that Leinart is the QB? Also, i would be willing to bet Fitz does not hit double digit TD's this year.

 

[ATC1]

I wouldn't take Fitz before AJ, Moss or Wayne.

I'll take a combo of SJax and JC at the turn. Instead of spending mid picks on handcuffs, I'll take high reward guys.

Breaston in the mid 7th maybe a steal with the double teams on Fitz. I also will have Knox or Hester on a lot of my teams. Also plenty of good Wr choices like Gaffney, Bryant, Holmes and Floyd later. That means in the 3rd and 4th I will probably get my stud QB and TE.

 

[Grahamburn]

So you think its a guarantee that he has 200+ more yards than last year now that Leinart is the QB? Also, i would be willing to bet Fitz does not hit double digit TD's this year.

I do. Fitzgerald's yards per catch in 2009 was a full 3 yards lower than his career ypc. That's a huge drop! Do you think Larry lost a step at the ripe old age of 26?!

Warner's arm was shot last year and he just didn't throw the ball down the field to Fitz anymore. Leinart may not have a huge arm, but I'm willing to bet 2010 Leinart can throw the ball deeper than 2009 Warner.

Mix in a balanced running game, some play action, Fitzgerald's ability to go up to get the ball deep in coverage, and I'd expect several more big plays for Larry this season than there were in 2009.

 

[Go deep]

So you think its a guarantee that he has 200+ more yards than last year now that Leinart is the QB? Also, i would be willing to bet Fitz does not hit double digit TD's this year.

I do. Fitzgerald's yards per catch in 2009 was a full 3 yards lower than his career ypc. That's a huge drop! Do you think Larry lost a stop at the ripe old age of 26?!

Warner's arm was shot last year and he just didn't throw the ball down the field to Fitz anymore. Leinart may not have a huge arm, but I'm willing to bet 2010 Leinart can throw the ball deeper than 2009 Warner.

Mix in a balanced running game, some play action, Fitzgerald's ability to go up to get the ball deep in coverage, and I'd expect several more big plays for Larry this season than there were in 2009.

You are expecting alot from Leinart, good luck.

 

[fightingillini]

3,300 yards is only 206 a game. That's pretty paltry for anyone with weapons like Fitzgerald, Breaston, Doucet, and Hightower/Wells. The Cardinals' TEs don't factor much in the passing game.

If Leinart is average and starts all season he should be closer to 225 a game, which is 3,600 yards. If he's awful he's going to get himself replaced by Derek Anderson in a hurry.

Larry Fitzgerald is simply a 90/1,300/10 + WR. He just is. I definitely think his overall percentage of the passing pie will increase with Boldin gone and Leinart at QB. The overall passing pie may be smaller, but Fitzgerald will get a bigger slice. 1,400 yards in a 3,600 yard season is 38%.

Fitzgerald-1,400

Breaston-850

Doucet-500

Hightower/Wells-600

TEs-250

Even in your 3,300 yard scenario I could see Fitzgerald going for 1,300 yards with relative ease.

Fitzgerald-1,300

Breaston-800

Doucet-450

Hightower/Wells-550

TEs-200

Couple all of that with the fact that you can basically set your watch to a 10 TD season and he's a first round pick with pretty low risk.

It's very simple. I think Leinart blows. I think AZ will miss Anquan Boldin....he is a heck of a receiver....either Breaston and Doucet are a downgrade at that postion. So you can guarantee that AZ's opponents will double team Fitz all the time. I think Leinart's going to throw a lot of picks this year. I think AZ is going to bring a healthy dose of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. And I think AZ will score less points than in recent years.We are not going to agree.....that's OK. I am certainly willing to eat some crow if Leinart turns out to be a decent NFL QB.

I am not saying there's no chance that Fitz gets 1300/10 while Leinart gets 3300/20. It's certainly possible given Fitz is an elite talent. But I am not going to bet a 1st round pick on it, especially at his ADP of 1.8. 2nd round? Absolutely. But if you're not taking a RB in round 1, you need an elite talent that is going to outscore the next tier by a wide margin. 90/1300/10 won't do it IMO. As I said in previous posts......I can see 8 other WRs getting stats close to this and you can get some in the 3rd round.

We're basically saying the same thing, "Arizona's offense will become more balanced and lose some of it's potency." I completely agree with you there. Boldin's loss for the offense as a whole is a significant one, but I don't think it effects Larry Fitzgerald. As I said before, the pie may get smaller, but Fitz will get a much bigger piece.

You mentioned an increase in double teams because of Boldin's loss. I doubt Fitz has seen single coverage save a handful of snaps since his rookie season. He torches double teams every single week. That shouldn't be anything new.

Larry Fitzgerald's innate ability to catch touchdowns also mitigates some of his risk. He has 68 TDs in 98 career games, including the playoffs. That's around .69 TDs per game. Even if that drops a little he's still right at double figures for touchdowns. Only Fitz and Randy Moss can give you that kind of guaranteed TD production from the WR position.

You say 90/1,300/10 doesn't make Larry Fitzgerald a first round pick, but when it's practically guaranteed, it should.

In the latter half of the first round I don't see any sure things unless you're planning on taking a QB. SJAX, Mendenhall, Moss, DeAngelo, Turner, Wayne... They all have question marks. The RBs all carry an increased injury risk, Wayne is solid yet un-spectacular, Moss disappears at times.

SJAX, Turner(non-ppr) and DeAngelo are the only players I would consider over Fitzgerald if you're picking 7-12.

I'm sure we can "see" a scenario where 8 other WRs put up stats similar to Larry Fitzgerald's, but I don't think you can be as certain of it. That's why he's worthy of a first round pick.

Obviously some people don't think Larry is going to be a fantasy stud this season because of Leinart, but his talent and work ethic make him as much of a sure thing for elite production as anybody else.

Where we don't agree is AZ's production as a team will drop but Fitzgerald's production will remain unchanged.Look, I know Fitz can beat a double team. But did opponents REALLY double team him that hard? You had a Pro Bowl receiver in Boldin on the other side. Truly double Fitz, and Boldin would explode for one of his 12 catch, 170 yard 2TD type games. But do you think NFL Defensive Coordinators are going to be truly scared of Breaston and Doucet? Are you truly scared of AZ's running game? If I am a DC, I am going to do my best at taking Fitzgerald out of the game, and make AZ beat me elsewhere. Now it won't happen all the time, since Fitzgerald is an elite talent.

While Fitzgerald is clearly capable of putting up monster numbers, he needs a decent QB to make that happen. I haven't seen a WR taken in Round 1 without a very good if not stud QB throwing the ball to him. Out of the top WRs.....AJ, R Moss, Wayne and Austin all have elite QBs throwing them the ball. Roddy White has a solid upcoming QB in Matt Ryan. Ryan is miles ahead of Leinart in development

You're putting a lot of stock into Leinart......which is fine if you believe in him....I don't. Another poster showed what his stats are like with Leinart at QB....they aren't very good. So I am not buying your "guaranteed" stats. Fitz comes with risk.

As much as I am not thrilled about it, I would rather take SJax or Turner or DAngelo in the 1st round and come back in the second with a R Moss or Wayne. I like that combo better than Fitz in the 1st and what 2nd round RB....probably around RB14.

Picks 7-9 are going to be hardest spots to draft from this year by a mile.

 

[Insein]

Ryan Matthews. Anyone taking him in the 1st or early 2nd round is a fool. Risk is way higher than the reward.

 

[Ray_T]

Ray Rice gets my vote. The addition of Boldin and TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta will also affect Rice's receiving opportunties.

Cam Cameron is still the OC in Baltimore, right?Rice will be a Top 10 RB. I bet he finishes at #2 (behind Peterson).My Fool's Gold vote is for Reggie Wayne.

Next to Rice I'd say Cam Cameron is the key guy in that offense and I agree with you. I took rice for my keeper league last year and he cost me 6 bucks in the auction. best 6 bucks I ever spent.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Look, I know Fitz can beat a double team. But did opponents REALLY double team him that hard? You had a Pro Bowl receiver in Boldin on the other side. Truly double Fitz, and Boldin would explode for one of his 12 catch, 170 yard 2TD type games. But do you think NFL Defensive Coordinators are going to be truly scared of Breaston and Doucet? Are you truly scared of AZ's running game? If I am a DC, I am going to do my best at taking Fitzgerald out of the game, and make AZ beat me elsewhere. Now it won't happen all the time, since Fitzgerald is an elite talent.

What about the countless games over the last few years that Boldin missed to injury, or was playing hobbled and barely garnered any attention?

 

[dagwood]

This is one of my favorite threads.

My vote is Fitzgerald for the highest risk of underperforming his slot.

New QB

No Boldin which increases the liklihood of double coverage

The guy has a ton of talent but the risk is a little higher this year than in the past.

 

[Manster]

I'm really starting to think Mathews is overvalued quite a bit.Yea its a good offense, but he's proven nothing. Sproles and Vincent Jackson are the value on this offense. Personally, i dont see him living up to his ADP this year.

His ADP isnt in the first round.

yea, but it's climbing. and i'm seeing a lot of folks projecting him way up there stat wise. we'll see what the hype does.

 

[Proud Communist]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

Receptions are probably the single most difficult thing for a running back to maintain over the course of a few years, especially when they're not specifically a "receiving back" like Reggie Bush.-Steven Jackson was a 90 catch guy in his breakout season. Then 38 the next year, 40 the next year, and he's stuck around that for the majority of his career.

-Ahman Green was a 70+ catch guy. Within 2 years he was consistently catching in the low 40's every year.

-Shaun Alexander was a 60+ catch guy when he broke out. That immediately dropped to 40 the next year, then 20 the year after that. By the time they made the Super Bowl, the O/U on his number of receptions in the game was 0.5

-I think everyone remembers LT catching 100 balls in 2003, what about after that? 53, 51, and so on the next few years.

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

I can see how Boldin might affect his production. Flacco is in his third year as starter, and it is difficult to know whether or not the coach wants him to throw downfield more.

 

[Proud Communist]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

Receptions are probably the single most difficult thing for a running back to maintain over the course of a few years, especially when they're not specifically a "receiving back" like Reggie Bush.-Steven Jackson was a 90 catch guy in his breakout season. Then 38 the next year, 40 the next year, and he's stuck around that for the majority of his career.

-Ahman Green was a 70+ catch guy. Within 2 years he was consistently catching in the low 40's every year.

-Shaun Alexander was a 60+ catch guy when he broke out. That immediately dropped to 40 the next year, then 20 the year after that. By the time they made the Super Bowl, the O/U on his number of receptions in the game was 0.5

-I think everyone remembers LT catching 100 balls in 2003, what about after that? 53, 51, and so on the next few years.

Ray Rice's 78 catches for 700 yards last year are a HUGE part of his top 5 ranking. That actually makes him MORE risky, not less, because you're paying for something that's difficult to repeat. Historically, those type of receiving numbers are almost impossible for a running back to maintain, or even to repeatedly come close to.

It's a bit silly to say that Rice is bust proof because last year he did something that almost has been able to repeat after doing it themselves. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if Rice catches ~45 passes for ~400 yards next year. That's 90 fantasy points (the equivalent of 15 touchdowns) lost right off the bat.

After Roger Craig had 71 receptions in 1984, he had 92, 81, 66, & 76 catches the next four years.After Marshall Faulk had 86 receptions in 1998, he had 87, 81, 83 & 80 catches the next four years.

After Brian Westbrook had 73 receptions in 2004, he had 61, 77, 90 & 54 (in 14 games) catches the next four years.

We can see who can find the most examples of each extreme if you want to.

True, but those three were in pass happy offenses. Two WCOs plus a Mike Martz offense. Will Baltimore throw as much as those teams did this year?

 

[Instinctive]

LaDainian Tomlinson never had less than 50 receptions from his rookie year on to last season. That's almost a decade.

His first two years under CC, he had 79 and 100 receptions...I think that there may be some room for Rice to gain recs under that premise.

In 2007, Ronnie Brown was on pace for over 80 receptions, CC's only year in Miami. Then you have Ray Rice last year. I think there's definitely reason to believe he won't dip below 50/500 or so, and he could even become a 1000/1000 guy at the best. I would look for 50-60 and 450-600 with room for way more.

 

[One]

I'll vote for Chris Johnson

Titans plan to spell him more - they have some 57 other RB's on their roster..

no way he comes close to 2k yards again this season, more like a huge drop to about 1300-1400 rush yards, at best.

I'll bet a case of beer that Michael Turner finishes with more yards and Td's, and finishes the season ranked higher than Chris Johnson. there's also the case about VY - can he really continue his decent play or have opposing defensive coordinators figured him yet? my guess is that they have...

ADP has been a top dog since he came in the league years ago no reason to think he should/would slide....

I dont' get the Ray Rice hatred - Boldin means defenses fear the pass more, meaning less men at the LOS to stop the run.

perhaps fewer recs for Rice, but probably more rushing yards/tds. the loss of recs is probably neglible.

If Johnson had only 1300-1400 rushing yards last season he still would have finished the #1 RB in PPRs.

 

[Chaka]

I'll vote for Chris Johnson

Titans plan to spell him more - they have some 57 other RB's on their roster..

no way he comes close to 2k yards again this season, more like a huge drop to about 1300-1400 rush yards, at best.

I'll bet a case of beer that Michael Turner finishes with more yards and Td's, and finishes the season ranked higher than Chris Johnson. there's also the case about VY - can he really continue his decent play or have opposing defensive coordinators figured him yet? my guess is that they have...

ADP has been a top dog since he came in the league years ago no reason to think he should/would slide....

I dont' get the Ray Rice hatred - Boldin means defenses fear the pass more, meaning less men at the LOS to stop the run.

perhaps fewer recs for Rice, but probably more rushing yards/tds. the loss of recs is probably neglible.

If Johnson had only 1300-1400 rushing yards last season he still would have finished the #1 RB in PPRs.

More than the drop in yardage production, which is pretty much guaranteed I am concerned with the fact that he scored 9 TDs from 30+ yards. That is a feat that is very unlikely to repeat itself. With VY as an option at the goal line I am more concerned that CJ dips to the 7-9 TD range.

 

[One]

I'll vote for Chris Johnson

Titans plan to spell him more - they have some 57 other RB's on their roster..

no way he comes close to 2k yards again this season, more like a huge drop to about 1300-1400 rush yards, at best.

I'll bet a case of beer that Michael Turner finishes with more yards and Td's, and finishes the season ranked higher than Chris Johnson. there's also the case about VY - can he really continue his decent play or have opposing defensive coordinators figured him yet? my guess is that they have...

ADP has been a top dog since he came in the league years ago no reason to think he should/would slide....

I dont' get the Ray Rice hatred - Boldin means defenses fear the pass more, meaning less men at the LOS to stop the run.

perhaps fewer recs for Rice, but probably more rushing yards/tds. the loss of recs is probably neglible.

If Johnson had only 1300-1400 rushing yards last season he still would have finished the #1 RB in PPRs.

More than the drop in yardage production, which is pretty much guaranteed I am concerned with the fact that he scored 9 TDs from 30+ yards. That is a feat that is very unlikely to repeat itself. With VY as an option at the goal line I am more concerned that CJ dips to the 7-9 TD range.

True, also in all fairness...

"Since 1940, there have been only 13 seasons in which a back has scored 14 or more TDs from inside an opponent's five yard line, including Adrian Peterson's 14 from last year. On average, these backs saw their short scores drop to 8 the following season.

ESPN The Magazine

 

[Sinrman]

Yeah gotta agree with CJ and SJ.

 

[Righetti]

They are both good posts.

To sum up last year, Rice started the year in a committee and ended as the bell cow back. With this being said, there is room for more upside, but if he slips, he has what may be the best 2nd string RB in the NFL behind him who is very capable of becoming a starter again.

I dont think it will happen, but it has to factor into your risk evaluation. It's not like the Slaton situation last year where there wasnt a credible RB to throw into the lineup if he doesnt perform.

Either way, I dont expect a huge dropoff in receptions as he was primarily drafted for his ball catching ability and I dont think this part will change. The big concern I have is that he may lose carries to McGahee. I know it didnt happen much last year, but sophomore slumps arent uncommon. If his game slips, it will be carrying the rock. I think he'll still catch lots of passes cuz McGahee isnt talented in that way (at least not to the degree that Rice is)

the funny thing is that he wasn't much of a receiver at RU. He had a total of 37 receptions in 3 years, Brian Leonard was the pass-catching RB during his first two years, he started catching the ball much more in years three (25 receptions) but he was never a big part of the passing game

 

[dickey moe]

Calvin Johnson for sure if he winds up being a first round pick.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Calvin Johnson for sure if he winds up being a first round pick.

Any particular reason why? Just curious. He's a guy I'm kind of unsure about. Could be good - could be so-so.

 

[Gopher State]

Ray Rice major overvalued this year. I think he be this years Forte

 

[LBH]

I WILL NOT DRAFT JAMAAL CHARLES IN ANY DRAFT THIS YEAR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hes not a first round pick. (at least he shouldnt be)

You have to be new here? This makes far too much sense. My question is how is J.Charles a 1st rounder?

I'm curious as to why people think he ISN'T a 1st round pick? I'd rather have JC than Steven Jackson or Larry Fitz. When you consider that even though he was on a bad team with a bad line and no other supporting cast, he still put up 1,120 yds rushing on only 190 touches and added almost another 300 yards receiving on 40 cathes. Add to that he didn't take over the starting gig until mid season! Another thing to consider is what he did against good defenses towards the end of the year. Case in point; he had over 100 yards against CIN (#6 ranked defense) and he had 259 rushing yards against DEN (#12 ranked defense) IN DENVER! And you can't say those teams were resting starters because I believe they were both possibly in a playoff hunt.You might say it's because they brought in Thomas Jones. Thomas Jones has averaged over 300 carries per season the last 5 seasons AND he turns 32 before the season starts. He was also running behind one of the best o-lines in the league those last couple/few years. Now surely, TJ isn't LT and look what happened to LT last year when age and bad o-line play caught up to him. Charles is the centerpiece to that offense. He's fast and electric and he's a homerun threat anytime he touches the ball. With some stability on the offense and better o-line play I could only imagine better numbers than what he had last year. 1300 - 1400 yards and about 10 Td's seems obtainable. Is that not a 1st round pick worthy?

love Charles this year at the end of the 1st/early 2nd. Hes a risky guy to wait on as far as his ADP goes because opinions on him are wide ranging.

 

[LBH]

Add me to the "im not touching Sjax in rd1" list

 

[TwinTurbo]

I will avoid Frank Gore. He's another guy with a higher probability for durability issues like SJ. I don't think he finishes top 5 and I don't think he'll play a full 16 games. I will also be avoiding Wayne and Mendenhall although I imagine both might slip into the second round.

 

[Kree]

Ray Rice major overvalued this year. I think he be this years Forte

Forte averaged 3.9 ypc in his rookie year, and in the second year his line continued to get worse. Most importantly he just didn't look impressive. late 08 I compared him to a worse Ryan Grant, though not suggesting Grant is a terrible player.Rice averaged 5.3 ypc in a Cameron offense, the oline remaining consistent AFAIK and most importantly, looked impressive.In no way should be be viewed as anything but a top 5/6 RB (Depends on your view of Gore or Sjax). The only reason you should be 'worried' if you pick him is McGahee.... And with his knees are you really that worried?

 

[Go deep]

Ray Rice major overvalued this year. I think he be this years Forte

Forte averaged 3.9 ypc in his rookie year, and in the second year his line continued to get worse. Most importantly he just didn't look impressive. late 08 I compared him to a worse Ryan Grant, though not suggesting Grant is a terrible player.Rice averaged 5.3 ypc in a Cameron offense, the oline remaining consistent AFAIK and most importantly, looked impressive.In no way should be be viewed as anything but a top 5/6 RB (Depends on your view of Gore or Sjax). The only reason you should be 'worried' if you pick him is McGahee.... And with his knees are you really that worried?

Its unlikely Rice will get many short yardage/goal line carries. If not Mcgahee it will be Mcclain getting the short yardage TD's. You never know though, people said the same thing aboout CJ last year. Although Mcgahee/Mcclain are much better than Lendale White, and i have to assume the Ravens are going to limit Rices touches.

 

[VaTerp]

Calvin Johnson for sure if he winds up being a first round pick.

Any particular reason why? Just curious. He's a guy I'm kind of unsure about. Could be good - could be so-so.

Like most I love Megatron's talent. But I'm not high on him this year. I don't like the way the Lions used him on offense last season. I don't think they moved him around enough and were often too predictable in the ways they tried to get him the ball. As a CJ owner I watched more than my fair share of Lions football. And I'm still not sold on Stafford and think he will continue to be inconsistent this year.IMO Johnson is overvalued at his ADP that I saw at 2.03. I have him as my Wr9 right now and think that anyone who even considers him in the 1st round is on crack. But again, JMO.

 

[Go deep]

Calvin Johnson for sure if he winds up being a first round pick.

Any particular reason why? Just curious. He's a guy I'm kind of unsure about. Could be good - could be so-so.

Like most I love Megatron's talent. But I'm not high on him this year. I don't like the way the Lions used him on offense last season. I don't think they moved him around enough and were often too predictable in the ways they tried to get him the ball. As a CJ owner I watched more than my fair share of Lions football. And I'm still not sold on Stafford and think he will continue to be inconsistent this year.IMO Johnson is overvalued at his ADP that I saw at 2.03. I have him as my Wr9 right now and think that anyone who even considers him in the 1st round is on crack. But again, JMO.

It goes with the saying, you cant win a draft with your 1st pick, but you can lose one. I like to play it safe with my first pick, and even with CJ's upside, he is not worth the risk in the first round.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I WILL NOT DRAFT JAMAAL CHARLES IN ANY DRAFT THIS YEAR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hes not a first round pick. (at least he shouldnt be)

You have to be new here? This makes far too much sense. My question is how is J.Charles a 1st rounder?

I'm curious as to why people think he ISN'T a 1st round pick? I'd rather have JC than Steven Jackson or Larry Fitz. When you consider that even though he was on a bad team with a bad line and no other supporting cast, he still put up 1,120 yds rushing on only 190 touches and added almost another 300 yards receiving on 40 cathes. Add to that he didn't take over the starting gig until mid season! Another thing to consider is what he did against good defenses towards the end of the year. Case in point; he had over 100 yards against CIN (#6 ranked defense) and he had 259 rushing yards against DEN (#12 ranked defense) IN DENVER! And you can't say those teams were resting starters because I believe they were both possibly in a playoff hunt.You might say it's because they brought in Thomas Jones. Thomas Jones has averaged over 300 carries per season the last 5 seasons AND he turns 32 before the season starts. He was also running behind one of the best o-lines in the league those last couple/few years. Now surely, TJ isn't LT and look what happened to LT last year when age and bad o-line play caught up to him. Charles is the centerpiece to that offense. He's fast and electric and he's a homerun threat anytime he touches the ball. With some stability on the offense and better o-line play I could only imagine better numbers than what he had last year. 1300 - 1400 yards and about 10 Td's seems obtainable. Is that not a 1st round pick worthy?

love Charles this year at the end of the 1st/early 2nd. Hes a risky guy to wait on as far as his ADP goes because opinions on him are wide ranging.

Charles value is going up. I am surprised to see him mentioned so much in the 1st. A draft i did a couple weeks ago, I took ADP and was able to pair him with Charles as RB2. I felt "meh" about it at the time. Mainly I am bullish because I think that KC has improved and could contend.

 

[NeverEnough]

Ray Rice

Injuries aside, he is virtually "bust-proof" in PPR leagues.

I play Non-PPR.