Tiering RB / WR for draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[austinball]

As Ive tiered my RB/WR Ive noticed some interesting things in my mock drafts. My league has 10 teams and 2 keepers. So draft round adjustments may not match yours exactly, but the concepts should apply.

Observations:
My RB tiers drop pretty fast from elite to very good, to good, but there's a steep drop off from RB3 candidates to everyone else. And after that point it's tired old players, backups, and total lottery ticket types who you can't depend on at all. Note: I draft RB heavy and sleep better with a solid RB3, and ideally solid RB4.

With my WR tiers, the slide feels super steep at the beginning going from elite to very good, but much more gradual as you slip from WR2 to WR3 etc. In fact it feels like there are WR2/3 candidates by the bushel -- safe picks and high upside guys.

Conclusions:
My basic conclusion is that I think it makes sense to try and grab at least one elite WR early, and then gather as many RB as possible until the major cliff (which in ALL of my mocks happens early Round 7). After the RB cliff, WR2-4 can be gathered like daisies.

I'm not addressing QB or TE timing because everyone has diff systems and strategies here.

RB Tiers
Listed in my ranking order:

• Elite (10) — ADP, D Martin, CJ Spiller, J Charles, R Rice, L McCoy, T Rich, Lynch, Foster, Forte
  
• Really Good (10) -- A Morris, CJ2K, SJAX, MJD, R Bush, F Gore, S Ridley, D Murray, Sproles, D Wilson
  
• RB2/3 (14) -- E Lacy, DMC, R Mathews, A Bradshaw, L Miller, G Bernard, D Williams, D Rich, S Vereen, R Mendenhall, C Ivory, M Ball, A Brown, M Ingram
  

CLIFF — this is usually mid-round 7 in my mocks. Everyone after this point IMO is a big drop in reliability. None of these guys give me any confidence in an RB3 position (which for me means I count on them to score 6-10 points each week in my flex with the chance of some good upside).

• Every RB after the cliff sucks IMO as anything more than low RB4 on my roster. There's nothing to hang my hat on. I see these guys scoring 0-4 points weekly. BARRING INJURY. Obviously injuries change things dramatically, and that's where any upside must come from with this group. But I don't want to have to count on any of these guys at any time in the season. This list goes for awhile but starts with: B Green-Ellis, R Hillman, B Tate, J Rodgers, B Brown, etc.
  

So Im thinking I need to pluck as many of the Top 34 until they are gone. Then Im holding off RB until I fill the rest of my roster. Ill definitely pick some upside flyers late in the draft — like J Bell, C Michael, D Thomas, B Brown.

WR TIers
WR is a more gradual slide. I see the elite tier dropping quick, but then a whole slope of WR2/3 types, many of whom will be around until Round 11-12.

• Elite (8) -- Calvin, AJ Green, D Bryant, B Marshall, D Thomas, Fitz, V Jackson, A Johnson
  
• Very good (9) -- R White, V Cruz, R Cobb, T Hilton, Welker, Amendola, D Bowe, M Colston, A Brown
  
• WR2/3 (LOTS: This is where the list goes forever IMO) -- D Jackson, Wayne, Decker, Smith, Garcon, Wallace, Tate, T Austin, T Smith, Williams, Brown, Givens, etc etc etc
  

So my plan here is to pick at least ONE of the Top 17 as high as possible as my WR1, then load up on the WR2/3 guys in rounds 7/8 and on. I feel A LOT more confident relying on any number of the WR2/3 to consistently put up points, or even break out with upside.

Does this make sense to you guys. Have you seen anything similar in your drafts/mocks? Would like to hear if you see any RBs below my cliff who should be up there. And vice versa.

 

[wlwiles]

I mainly agree with your RB tiers, with one exception: I'd have Murray in the 3rd tier due to injury risk. I think pretty much everyone would agree there's 10 in the top tier, some would argue for Morris instead of Forte in that tier, but if you ask 10 people to rank the top 10 the only consensus pick would be Peterson #1.

For WRs, I think there are 3 tiers in your first two.

Elite (4): Calvin, Dez, Green, Marshall

Very Good (8): Thomas, Fitz, VJax, Andre, Roddy, Cruz, Cobb, & Julio (you forgot him) --- you could make a case for Bowe in this tier

Good (11): Hilton, Wayne, Welker, Decker, Amendola, Bowe, Colston, Brown, Torrey Smith, Wallace, Shorts

WR3: still plenty of usable WRs here

As long as I can grab a RB in the first half of the elite tier, I'm more willing to go highest WR in the 2nd round and go back for RB2 in the third. I just like my teams better if they look like Spiller/DThomas/DWilson rather than Charles/Gore/Andre after 3 rounds

 

[lsufan]

This is just my opinion.

If you draft toward the end of the first round it seems better to go with the RB/RB/WR option. People drafting toward the front half of the first round seem to have more flexibility and can get away with the RB/WR/RB option.

I personally pulled the 10th spot in a 12 team league. The depth in the WR position makes me feel safer grabbing a tier1 and tier2 RB right off the bat. I still feel confident that i can get a good group of WR's in rounds 3 and 4. Ive done enough PPR 12 team mocks to see a trend. I can grab forte/cj2k/white/bowe. I have been tempted to try RB/WR/RB but im consistently getting a tier three RB as my RB2. Something like forte/marshall/dmc. Im just not willing to risk it. Most mocks show that all the tier 2 RB's are gone before my 3rd round pick.