Tiering Up: 3rd-Tier WRs (1 Viewer)

[CB31]

The "RB Clump" topic had some good discussion and helped me out a lot, so I thought I'd ask another similar question, this time focusing on 3rd-tier WRs.

Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, and Greg Jennings are within 9 picks of each other, with CJ at 22.4 and Jennings at 31.6. In a PPR DYNASTY with 2 starting WRs, how would you rank these guys? Thanks in advance!

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I'd go Calvin 1 and Austin 2 and Roddy 3 at the top of this group. All have great QB play and are the main guy on their respective teams. This could change with Dez coming to Dallas, but that offense has enough to go around, and Austin is good enough to carry solid numbers for years to come. Calvin's talent, coupled with a young, on the rise QB makes him my top pick of the bunch.

Jackson and Jennings are either 4/5 or 5/4 for me, and both are definitely a notch below the above 3. I love DJax, but don't know if he'll ever be a truly elite WR in PPR leagues. Jennings is very good, but seems to have a little Colston in him, in that he can be the best WR on a great passing team, but I'm not sure if he's really good enough to demand a high target % from a QB who can just as easily find other capable guys open elsewhere. Tough to see either of these two bringing in more than 80 for 1300 and 8 (great numbers, granted, but a lower upside when compared to the other 3 guys).

 

[CB31]

I'd go Calvin 1 and Austin 2 and Roddy 3 at the top of this group. All have great QB play and are the main guy on their respective teams. This could change with Dez coming to Dallas, but that offense has enough to go around, and Austin is good enough to carry solid numbers for years to come. Calvin's talent, coupled with a young, on the rise QB makes him my top pick of the bunch.Jackson and Jennings are either 4/5 or 5/4 for me, and both are definitely a notch below the above 3. I love DJax, but don't know if he'll ever be a truly elite WR in PPR leagues. Jennings is very good, but seems to have a little Colston in him, in that he can be the best WR on a great passing team, but I'm not sure if he's really good enough to demand a high target % from a QB who can just as easily find other capable guys open elsewhere. Tough to see either of these two bringing in more than 80 for 1300 and 8 (great numbers, granted, but a lower upside when compared to the other 3 guys).

Now that you mention it, it may be wiser to group DJax and Jennings in with the next tier (that being Rice, Smith South (Panthers), and Colston) than with Calvin/Austin/Roddy

 

[Shock6822]

I actually have it Calvin, Roddy, then Austin, but I have Desean and Jennings a bit lower than most other people (they're almost like tier 3.5 or 4 for me as opposed to the same tier as the other 3).

 

[kremenull]

I actually have it Calvin, Roddy, then Austin, but I have Desean and Jennings a bit lower than most other people (they're almost like tier 3.5 or 4 for me as opposed to the same tier as the other 3).

Agree with your ordering of the first three here. I also believe Calvin and Roddy will both finish Top 5 in any format (ppr and non-ppr).

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

I think Brandon Marshall could be ranked in there with Calvin/Roddy/Austin... I keep finding myself in a coinflip for all 4 players in the 2nd round.

 

[cjack]

Granted, I'm not as familiar with Dynasty rankings, but are these WRs really tier 3?

So, you have A. Johson in Tier 1, Moss and Fitzgerald in Tier 2, and then these guys in Tier 3?

Seems you could lump A. Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald into Tier 1 and then slot these guys in Tier 2, unless there's some ridiculous gap in projections between A. Johnson and Moss/Fitzgerald. I'm just starting my research for this year, so maybe I'm missing some projections somewhere.

eta: Actually, now that I think about it, Moss shouldn't even be that high in Dynasty. He would probably rank along with these guys at best. So, are there other younger players that are ranked higher in Dynasty, like Crabtree, Bryant, etc?

 

[rzrback77]

Calvin

Roddy

Marshall

Jennings

De Jax

Austin

 

[CB31]

Granted, I'm not as familiar with Dynasty rankings, but are these WRs really tier 3?So, you have A. Johson in Tier 1, Moss and Fitzgerald in Tier 2, and then these guys in Tier 3?Seems you could lump A. Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald into Tier 1 and then slot these guys in Tier 2, unless there's some ridiculous gap in projections between A. Johnson and Moss/Fitzgerald. I'm just starting my research for this year, so maybe I'm missing some projections somewhere.

Yeah, that's what I did, including Marshall in with Moss and Fitz. It's splitting hairs, really. There's not a huge gap, but with the ADPs, AJ was a consensus 1st usually going 6th while Moss and Fitz were usually going early 2nd. But the tiering you did would work just fine too.

 

[cjack]

Granted, I'm not as familiar with Dynasty rankings, but are these WRs really tier 3?So, you have A. Johson in Tier 1, Moss and Fitzgerald in Tier 2, and then these guys in Tier 3?Seems you could lump A. Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald into Tier 1 and then slot these guys in Tier 2, unless there's some ridiculous gap in projections between A. Johnson and Moss/Fitzgerald. I'm just starting my research for this year, so maybe I'm missing some projections somewhere.

Yeah, that's what I did, including Marshall in with Moss and Fitz. It's splitting hairs, really. There's not a huge gap, but with the ADPs, AJ was a consensus 1st usually going 6th while Moss and Fitz were usually going early 2nd. But the tiering you did would work just fine too.

That makes sense I guess.What I'm curious about in regard to Dynasty, and granted I only play redrafts, but why would Moss be so high? How many good years do you figure he has left? I'd be much more inclined to take a guy like C. Johnson, S. Rice, or one of the younger unproven talents like Crabtree or Bryant. I realize you have to focus on the current year as well, but when projecting out a few years, it seems that would drop Moss' stock.

 

[Shock6822]

Granted, I'm not as familiar with Dynasty rankings, but are these WRs really tier 3?So, you have A. Johson in Tier 1, Moss and Fitzgerald in Tier 2, and then these guys in Tier 3?Seems you could lump A. Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald into Tier 1 and then slot these guys in Tier 2, unless there's some ridiculous gap in projections between A. Johnson and Moss/Fitzgerald. I'm just starting my research for this year, so maybe I'm missing some projections somewhere.

Yeah, that's what I did, including Marshall in with Moss and Fitz. It's splitting hairs, really. There's not a huge gap, but with the ADPs, AJ was a consensus 1st usually going 6th while Moss and Fitz were usually going early 2nd. But the tiering you did would work just fine too.

That makes sense I guess.What I'm curious about in regard to Dynasty, and granted I only play redrafts, but why would Moss be so high? How many good years do you figure he has left? I'd be much more inclined to take a guy like C. Johnson, S. Rice, or one of the younger unproven talents like Crabtree or Bryant. I realize you have to focus on the current year as well, but when projecting out a few years, it seems that would drop Moss' stock.

You play to win now, not a few years down the road. There's always time to make a move, draft well, etc. If you think Moss will regress this year that's fine, but if you think he has even 2-3 more great years left, he should probably still be a top end pick. And if you drafted well enough initially, you'll have someone else solid enough to take his place in any case.

 

[frogpond11]

My rank of your 5 in PPR DYNASTY..

Calvin Johnson

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

DeSean Jackson

Miles Austin

 

[cjack]

Granted, I'm not as familiar with Dynasty rankings, but are these WRs really tier 3?So, you have A. Johson in Tier 1, Moss and Fitzgerald in Tier 2, and then these guys in Tier 3?Seems you could lump A. Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald into Tier 1 and then slot these guys in Tier 2, unless there's some ridiculous gap in projections between A. Johnson and Moss/Fitzgerald. I'm just starting my research for this year, so maybe I'm missing some projections somewhere.

Yeah, that's what I did, including Marshall in with Moss and Fitz. It's splitting hairs, really. There's not a huge gap, but with the ADPs, AJ was a consensus 1st usually going 6th while Moss and Fitz were usually going early 2nd. But the tiering you did would work just fine too.

That makes sense I guess.What I'm curious about in regard to Dynasty, and granted I only play redrafts, but why would Moss be so high? How many good years do you figure he has left? I'd be much more inclined to take a guy like C. Johnson, S. Rice, or one of the younger unproven talents like Crabtree or Bryant. I realize you have to focus on the current year as well, but when projecting out a few years, it seems that would drop Moss' stock.

You play to win now, not a few years down the road. There's always time to make a move, draft well, etc. If you think Moss will regress this year that's fine, but if you think he has even 2-3 more great years left, he should probably still be a top end pick. And if you drafted well enough initially, you'll have someone else solid enough to take his place in any case.

I understand that philosophy, but I figure if I ever drafted a Dynasty team, I would lean toward a younger team. I might sacrifice a little bit in year 1, but my team would be stacked with young talent from there on. Then while everyone is trying to play catchup in years 2 and 3, I'm loading up on future young talent or trading away with my depth. Unless you think Moss is going to seriously outperform guys like C. Johnson, S. Rice, Jennings, etc. for the next couple of years, why not take the younger guy who likely has an additional 5+ years of playing time.Which of two sample teams (only listing the first six picks) below would you rather have in a Dynasty league (I'm making the argument that you could draft either team equally as likely from a middle round draft spot in a 12 team league):Team A. ManningD. WilliamsC. BensonR. WayneC. OchocincoT. Gonzalezor Team B:A. RodgersB. WellsJ. BestR. WhiteM. CrabtreeV. DavisNow, I don't have a Dynasty specific cheatsheet, but it seems you would have a relatively equal chance of drafting either team, probably a bit harder even to draft Team A. Yet, while Team B may sacrifice a little bit this year, and that's debatable, Team B will be crushing this team two years from now. Then while Team A is desperately trying to recover by drafting ready to play players and trade away aging players, I'm stockpiling more young talent for the next few years. Seems by sacrificing one, maybe two years upfront, you'd set yourself up down the road by always being ahead of the game.Anyway, never did a Dynasty league, but I always thought that would be my strategy. Takes me back to my initial point as to why someone would draft Moss over Fitzgerald, R. White, S. Rice, etc.I'd be curious to hear from someone in a Dynasty league who actually drafted (say a couple years ago) as I suggest and how that's worked out for him. Obviously, a lot of it depends on how successful you are in projecting unproven/younger talent.

 

[Headbanger]

For Dynasty it does make it a slight adjustment as getting a younger player and potentially keeping longer. Many of those players you are splitting hairs on points this season, that is why they are clumped together.

5 - Jackson - I do not see Jackson repeat his 8 TD's over 50 yards this year. No Westbrook, No McNabb, many other receiving weapons to me equal a lesser season.

4 - Jennings - He has good upside potential as Driver is over the hill and coming off injury. Finley will draw inside attention. You have one of the top QB's out there on a pass happy team. The offense is mostly intact but SOOOO many other weapons will cap his numbers.

3 - Austin - Totally broke out last year. Excellent QB, excellent supporting crew. Added best rookie WR in the draft but doubt he helps much year #1. To me just does not seem to have much more room to go up.

2 - Johnson - He always seems injured. 2nd year QB, rookie RB starting, new TE in Scheffler, new WR help in Burleson. Johnson has lots going for him but the team will need time to adjust to all the new faces. This is a put up or shut up year to me. With his size and speed it seems like his year to break out. With the unknowns on this team is why I have him #2 and not #1 on your list.

1 - White - Very consistant player in catches, yards, and TD's. Young improving QB. Has Turner back on a rebound year. Still has Gonzo to draw inside coverage. To me White is the safest pick of the lot.

(Some mention Marshall in this tier. I would not have him here in a PPR league as Miami will not throw enough to the #1 WR and does not have enough talent around him either, new team that runs a lot does not help either)

I hope this helps, thanks for the topic.

 

[greggorymac]

Granted, I'm not as familiar with Dynasty rankings, but are these WRs really tier 3?So, you have A. Johson in Tier 1, Moss and Fitzgerald in Tier 2, and then these guys in Tier 3?Seems you could lump A. Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald into Tier 1 and then slot these guys in Tier 2, unless there's some ridiculous gap in projections between A. Johnson and Moss/Fitzgerald. I'm just starting my research for this year, so maybe I'm missing some projections somewhere.

Yeah, that's what I did, including Marshall in with Moss and Fitz. It's splitting hairs, really. There's not a huge gap, but with the ADPs, AJ was a consensus 1st usually going 6th while Moss and Fitz were usually going early 2nd. But the tiering you did would work just fine too.

You're including Marshall in with the Moss and Fitz tier? I know he's a beast but I just don't think he will be able to compete at that tier level in Miami.

 

[cjack]

Granted, I'm not as familiar with Dynasty rankings, but are these WRs really tier 3?So, you have A. Johson in Tier 1, Moss and Fitzgerald in Tier 2, and then these guys in Tier 3?Seems you could lump A. Johnson, Moss and Fitzgerald into Tier 1 and then slot these guys in Tier 2, unless there's some ridiculous gap in projections between A. Johnson and Moss/Fitzgerald. I'm just starting my research for this year, so maybe I'm missing some projections somewhere.

Yeah, that's what I did, including Marshall in with Moss and Fitz. It's splitting hairs, really. There's not a huge gap, but with the ADPs, AJ was a consensus 1st usually going 6th while Moss and Fitz were usually going early 2nd. But the tiering you did would work just fine too.

You're including Marshall in with the Moss and Fitz tier? I know he's a beast but I just don't think he will be able to compete at that tier level in Miami.

I totally agree with that. Marshall clearly has the physical talent, but I just don't see a run based Miami team giving him enough opportunities, particularly with a young QB with whom they'll want to minimize mistakes.

 

[Shock6822]

I understand that philosophy, but I figure if I ever drafted a Dynasty team, I would lean toward a younger team. I might sacrifice a little bit in year 1, but my team would be stacked with young talent from there on. Then while everyone is trying to play catchup in years 2 and 3, I'm loading up on future young talent or trading away with my depth. Unless you think Moss is going to seriously outperform guys like C. Johnson, S. Rice, Jennings, etc. for the next couple of years, why not take the younger guy who likely has an additional 5+ years of playing time.Which of two sample teams (only listing the first six picks) below would you rather have in a Dynasty league (I'm making the argument that you could draft either team equally as likely from a middle round draft spot in a 12 team league):Team A. ManningD. WilliamsC. BensonR. WayneC. OchocincoT. Gonzalezor Team B:A. RodgersB. WellsJ. BestR. WhiteM. CrabtreeV. DavisNow, I don't have a Dynasty specific cheatsheet, but it seems you would have a relatively equal chance of drafting either team, probably a bit harder even to draft Team A. Yet, while Team B may sacrifice a little bit this year, and that's debatable, Team B will be crushing this team two years from now. Then while Team A is desperately trying to recover by drafting ready to play players and trade away aging players, I'm stockpiling more young talent for the next few years. Seems by sacrificing one, maybe two years upfront, you'd set yourself up down the road by always being ahead of the game.Anyway, never did a Dynasty league, but I always thought that would be my strategy. Takes me back to my initial point as to why someone would draft Moss over Fitzgerald, R. White, S. Rice, etc.I'd be curious to hear from someone in a Dynasty league who actually drafted (say a couple years ago) as I suggest and how that's worked out for him. Obviously, a lot of it depends on how successful you are in projecting unproven/younger talent.

There's a huge difference in the example you've given: not many owners will be drafting a team like that. Every one of those players you listed isn't "young". Ideally, you mix up proven guys with young guys. You can have Randy Moss on your team and still have a young squad for the future like you say...your team should never revolve around 1 guy. And stockpiling young talent is nice, but consider that alot of those young players may have a much lower floor as well. Ask owners who drafted guys like Bowe, Royal, Kevin Smith, Slaton and Forte in dynasties last year. There's still time for them to turn it around, sure, but as chips and players, you're not as confident with them. The bottom line is that if owners are passing up Moss simply because it's a dynasty, as long as you craft a team that can absorb the hit in a few years or make a decent trade or 2 in the span of a couple years (which I'd hope any good owner could do), you'll be fine taking an elder statesman.