Todd Gurley pending extension (1 Viewer)

[Hankmoody]

edit:  source/rumor, not fully reported.  Topic modified

Per Sleeperbot, 4 new years, $60M new money, $45M guaranteed.

This is gonna set off comments about Le'Veon, but this isn't very similar.  This leaves his existing contract in place which is a huge factor.  He's only making $2.3M this year and $9.6M next, so this is really a 6 year, $72M with $45M guaranteed.  He's also 23 so most of that guaranteed money will be gone by the time he's Bell's age.

 

[Phenomena]

If so, that's an insane amount of guaranteed money for a running back whom has two years left on his current deal. Crazy. 

Even if he maintains his level of play, he's shattering the running back contracts. This would average $12M/year in three years.  Freeman is the highest APY (besides Bell's 1-year franchies) and is only getting $8.2M APY. 

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  Only extend guys early if you're going to get them at a discount. This is a 50% APY raise over the highest RB contract. I don't get it.

 

[eNdblu]

Gregg Rosenthal  @greggrosenthal

Also it’s $45 million in guarantees, not guaranteed, so its almost certain its going to wind up more team friendly than people expect.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If so, that's an insane amount of guaranteed money for a running back whom has two years left on his current deal. Crazy. 

Even if he maintains his level of play, he's shattering the running back contracts. This would average $12M/year in three years.  Freeman is the highest APY (besides Bell's 1-year franchies) and is only getting $8.2M APY. 

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  Only extend guys early if you're going to get them at a discount. This is a 50% APY raise over the highest RB contract. I don't get it.

It may look like a discount by the time we hit the new money in the contract.

 

[steelers1080]

It may look like a discount by the time we hit the new money in the contract.

If players can somehow tap into the gambling money that could soon start rolling in, contracts could balloon even higher and this could be a cheap contract for a stud RB compared to contracts just 2 years from now. 

I'm not sure how much I believe that he's getting $45 million guaranteed on top of his last 2 years of his current contract. That's like $57 mil guaranteed to an RB. It would make much more sense if that included his last 2 years, and/or it's the type of money that is guaranteed in March, but not fully guaranteed right off the bat. 

Wonder if this contract will outline Bell's future contract and Zeke and DJ's extensions.

 

[Keith1]

Is he the hands-down, "no questions asked" presumptive # 1 pick in redraft formats ? PPR in particular. And does a big fat new contract have any effect on that--one way or the other ? 

 

[Hankmoody]

Is he the hands-down, "no questions asked" presumptive # 1 pick in redraft formats ? PPR in particular. And does a big fat new contract have any effect on that--one way or the other ? 

No.  He's on the list, but it's not anywhere near hands-down.  EZE, DJ, Bell, and even a WR or two based on league parameters are in play.

 

[Hankmoody]

If so, that's an insane amount of guaranteed money for a running back whom has two years left on his current deal. Crazy. 

Even if he maintains his level of play, he's shattering the running back contracts. This would average $12M/year in three years.  Freeman is the highest APY (besides Bell's 1-year franchies) and is only getting $8.2M APY. 

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  Only extend guys early if you're going to get them at a discount. This is a 50% APY raise over the highest RB contract. I don't get it.

He's 6 years $72M.  Let's see what those salaries look like when 2020 hits.  There is a whole wave of young studs coming that are going to bring a collective ton of leverage to the table.  People were stunned a couple of years ago at QB contracts and look at them now.

 

[Phenomena]

Is he the hands-down, "no questions asked" presumptive # 1 pick in redraft formats ? PPR in particular. And does a big fat new contract have any effect on that--one way or the other ? 

I don't consider him to be the consensus #1 pick - not like David Johnson was last year.  There's little difference between the top 5 guys (zeke, DJ, Bell, Gurley, Brown) for me this year and will happily pick at 1.05 if I'm able to choose my spot.  Frankly, I think Zeke is in for another huge season, and would likely be my top pick.  Gurley had an unrealistic efficiency last year and this year that offense is going to be more balanced. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Is he the hands-down, "no questions asked" presumptive # 1 pick in redraft formats ? PPR in particular. And does a big fat new contract have any effect on that--one way or the other ? 

To me he would be the top pick but legitimate arguments can be made for Bell, Johnson, Elliot or Brown.

I think he'll go at the 1.01 in at least 75% of all ppr redrafts though.

 

[Keith1]

To me he would be the top pick but legitimate arguments can be made for Bell, Johnson, Elliot or Brown.

I think he'll go at the 1.01 in at least 75% of all ppr redrafts though.

I had him 2 years ago when he stunk (yes, loser Jeff Fisher was the coach) and then of course watched him go late 2nd round last year, and carry the guy who drafted him to our league championship.

 

[menobrown]

I don't consider him to be the consensus #1 pick - not like David Johnson was last year. 

I did not consider DJ consensus #1 last year, a coin toss with him or Bell, I went Bell more often then DJ but was a legit coin toss type call.

Now it's almost like a 4 sided dice roll for pick 1, unless you don't mind passing on 20+PPG RB for best WR each of last 4-5 seasons.

One thing on Gurley to factor in some contests, like FFPC/FBG, is his week 12 bye is week one of the playoffs. Sure him not having a bye might be what helps you make the playoffs, but a little daunting spending the top pick on a player that you know won't be available for week one of the playoffs.

 

[dansav]

edit:  source/rumor, not fully reported.  Topic modified

Per Sleeperbot, 4 new years, $60M new money, $45M guaranteed.

This is gonna set off comments about Le'Veon, but this isn't very similar.  This leaves his existing contract in place which is a huge factor.  He's only making $2.3M this year and $9.6M next, so this is really a 6 year, $72M with $45M guaranteed.  He's also 23 so most of that guaranteed money will be gone by the time he's Bell's age.

Gurley will be 24 in a couple days.   Not that much younger than Bell and Johnson if you think about it although in running back years it could be considered a lot

 

[Keith1]

One thing on Gurley to factor in some contests, like FFPC/FBG, is his week 12 bye is week one of the playoffs. Sure him not having a bye might be what helps you make the playoffs, but a little daunting spending the top pick on a player that you know won't be available for week one of the playoffs.

Don't most (not all) fantasy playoffs start in week 14 ?

 

[eNdblu]

Inside Todd Gurley's New Deal

Now, the $45 million in reported guarantees aren’t, as many realize by now, fully guaranteed at signing. But the devices used by Roc Nation make the money fully guaranteed, as a practical matter.

More on that in a moment. For now, the nuts and bolts of the contract.

1. Signing bonus: $21 million.

2. 2018 base salary: $950,000, fully guaranteed.

3. 2019 base salary: $5 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2019 league year.

4. 2020 roster bonus due on third day of 2020 league year: $7.55 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2019 league year.

5. 2020 salary: $5.5 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2020 league year.

6. 2021 roster bonus due on the third day of 2021 league year or when the first game, whichever is earlier: $5 million, guaranteed for injury at signing and fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2020 league year.

7. 2021 salary: $4 million.

8. 2022 roster bonus, due on the third day of the 2022 league year: $1 million.

9. 2022 training camp reporting bonus: $4 million.

10. 2022 salary: $5 million.

11. 2023 roster bonus, due on the third day of the 2023 league year: $1 million.

12. 2023 training camp reporting bonus: $4 million.

13. 2023 salary: $5.449 million.

14. 2023 escalator: Up to $2.5 million based on individual and team performance.

And now for some more information and analysis on the deal.

First, much of the guaranteed money has no offset language. Specifically, the signing bonus, 2018 salary, 2019 salary, and $5 million of the 2020 roster bonus are not subject to dollar-for-dollar credit if the Rams release Gurley. That’s $31.95 million.

Second, $26.95 million is fully guaranteed at signing.

Third, as of the third day of the 2019 league year, $34.5 million of the deal will be fully guaranteed. Thus, to avoid owing him nearly $40 million, the Rams would have to cut Gurley after only one season. Which would give him $26.95 million for one year, none of which would be subject to offset.

Fourth, another $10.5 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2020 league year. Which means that, to avoid paying him the full $45 million in guaranteed money, they’d have to cut him after two years — and he’d walk away with $34.5 million for two seasons of work.

Fifth, the 2021 roster bonus was negotiated with a potential work stoppage in mind. That’s why the trigger is the third day of the league year or the playing of the first game.

Sixth, technically, the four-year, $60 million extension has a base value of $57.5 million. This also means that the full six-year deal has a base value of $69.449 million. Which makes the new-money average of the base deal $14.375 million and the total average from signing $11.574 million.

Those numbers are still far and away above the current running back market, which has been depressed at the top end since Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson signed their long-term deals in 2011.

 

[ZWK]

$15M/yr in new money would make this tied for the 22nd highest non-QB contract in amt per year, and slot in between WR Jarvis Landry & CB Trumaine Johnson in contracts signed this offseason. If we count it as $57.5 million for 4 years then it's 30th, slotting in among new deals between DE Danielle Hunter and G Zack Martin. The fact that it's an extension for 2020-2023 adds risk for the Rams, but also means that it'll be farther down the amt per year rankings by the time the new years arrive.

This seems like a reasonable deal, both for the Rams in locking up a hugely important part of their offense and for Gurley in getting a bunch of guaranteed (or guaranteed-for-injury) money now.

IMO, "running back fungibility" sometimes gets overstated. It can get taken to the point of claiming that the running back is much less important than most other players on the field, which doesn't seem right to me. People used to treat the QB and RB as the two most important players on the field (as reflected, e.g., in the Most Valuable QB or RB award), which was wrong - the QB is far more important than the other 21 guys and the RB position is nothing special. But "nothing special" means "roughly similar in importance to the other 20 non-QBs on the field", not that every RB is easily replaceable and the position is way less important than WRs, CBs, and pass rushers. The RB position seems a little less important than other positions which are more heavily involved in the passing game, but not wildly less important. If I was building a roster from scratch I'd rather have Gurley than, say, CB Kyle Fuller.