Too early Top 30 (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

Barring injury--I think Mixon makes the RB list and could be top 10.   

I have some concerns about the projected starting offensive line but could definitely see Mixon take a nice jump.  I like Glenn but he has missed as many games as he has started over the last two seasons and he was never quite a pro-bowl caliber player. Fortunately they have Cedric Ogbuehi as the first tackle off the bench and he provides good experience and system familiarity (25 starts and 1346 snaps played over the past two seasons). Billy Price looks to be a strong addition as well (which is what people think about all first round rookies in May) so maybe it's not all doom and gloom.  But they do not have a lot of experience playing together and the Bengals let their long (long, long) time offensive line coach go to the Cowboys which is another x-factor for them.

If things come together on the line I think Mixon should have a nice season.

 

[Cobbler1]

the top 30 should look something like this in PPR leagues...just listing the top15 at RB/WR....I see QBs sliding big time this year.

RB:

Todd Gurley

Leveon Bell

David Johnson

Zeke Elliot

Alvin Kamara

Saquon Barkley NYG

Melvin Gordon

Kareem Hunt 

Leonard Fournette 

Dalvin Cook

Devonta Freeman

Christian McCaffrey

LeSean McCoy 

Jordan Howard

Derrius Guice

WR:

Antonio Brown

DeAndre Hopkins

Odell Beckham Jr

Mike Evans

Mike Thomas

Julio Jones

Keenan Allen

Devante Adams

AJ Green

Doug Baldwin

Amari Cooper

Tyreek Hill

TY Hilton

Adam Thelien

Alshon Jeffery

Give me Ajayi over Guice and ahead of Howard and Gordon over Alshon. Very good list.

 

[matuski]

the top 30 should look something like this in PPR leagues...just listing the top15 at RB/WR....I see QBs sliding big time this year.

RB:

Todd Gurley

Leveon Bell

David Johnson

Zeke Elliot

Alvin Kamara

Saquon Barkley NYG

Melvin Gordon

Kareem Hunt 

Leonard Fournette 

Dalvin Cook

Devonta Freeman

Christian McCaffrey

LeSean McCoy 

Jordan Howard

Derrius Guice

WR:

Antonio Brown

DeAndre Hopkins

Odell Beckham Jr

Mike Evans

Mike Thomas

Julio Jones

Keenan Allen

Devante Adams

AJ Green

Doug Baldwin

Amari Cooper

Tyreek Hill

TY Hilton

Adam Thelien

Alshon Jeffery

I have a mental block against accepting Mike Thomas that high.  But I suppose he deserves it now.

 

[bostonfred]

the top 30 should look something like this in PPR leagues...just listing the top15 at RB/WR....I see QBs sliding big time this year.

RB:

Todd Gurley - I get it but am surprised that a guy who made a huge leap in one year is the consensus number one

Leveon Bell - holdout makes me nervous but I'd still consider him at 1.1

David Johnson - returning from injury, no Arians, total turnover at quarterback... I'll pass at this spot 

Zeke Elliot - absolutely. They are going you ride him hard. 

Alvin Kamara - I can't buy in to this. Yeah that passing volume was awesome but he's due some regression. 

Saquon Barkley NYG - In redraft this is too high for me.  In dynasty it is reasonable but still too high

Melvin Gordon - I'll take the consistent production over a couple of the riskier names ahead of him but not enthusiastic about it

Kareem Hunt - a couple spots too low considering his rookie production.  I like ware but not enough to drop hunt down this far.  

Leonard Fournette - I'm really only afraid of injury. 

Dalvin Cook - right around here is ok

Devonta Freeman  - I can understand why he's down in the 

Christian McCaffrey - capped upside.  Pass.

LeSean McCoy - wheels will fall off of the bills if not McCoy

Jordan Howard - maybe he finally starts catching passes.  Still seems high to me. 

Derrius Guice - no thanks. 

Missing - Derrick Henry, mixon, penny, drake

WR:

Antonio Brown - yup 

DeAndre Hopkins - nope. Year over year inconsistency is not worth the second receiver spot.

Odell Beckham Jr - hard to take anyone but brown over him even with the knucklehead risk

Mike Evans - production is so target dependent and the other skill position players should once again be improved 

Mike Thomas - consistent good production like roddy white used ru give, but won't win you a league

Julio Jones - too low for a 1500 yard receiver in his prime

Keenan Allen - I was never that big a fan but he's proven me wrong repeatedly

Devante Adams - rodgers leading target by a lot.  Yes please

AJ Green - would take him over Mike Evans. Yeah his numbers dipped a bit last year and he's been dinged up here and there but he's elite

Doug Baldwin - safe bet to improve over last year.  Who else is Wilson going to throw to?  

Amari Cooper - like him more in 2019 than 18 but this is about right 

Tyreek Hill - take away an accurate quarterback and replace him with a rookie and add the highest paid free agent receiver.  Nope no thanks

TY Hilton - a referendum on Andrew luck

Adam Thelien - cheapest guy in the tier 

Alshon Jeffery - it's been two years since he had a 100 yard game

I am not picking on your list but I think the overall consensus is out of whack on a lot of these guys. 

 

[BigTex]

I have some concerns about the projected starting offensive line but could definitely see Mixon take a nice jump.  I like Glenn but he has missed as many games as he has started over the last two seasons and he was never quite a pro-bowl caliber player. Fortunately they have Cedric Ogbuehi as the first tackle off the bench and he provides good experience and system familiarity (25 starts and 1346 snaps played over the past two seasons). Billy Price looks to be a strong addition as well (which is what people think about all first round rookies in May) so maybe it's not all doom and gloom.  But they do not have a lot of experience playing together and the Bengals let their long (long, long) time offensive line coach go to the Cowboys which is another x-factor for them.

If things come together on the line I think Mixon should have a nice season.

Mixon has been working hard in the offseason. He’s trimmed 10 lbs off to be ready for the season.

If I didn’t have him on my Dynasty league I’d try to buy him now before camp starts.

Tex

 

[Chaka]

Mixon has been working hard in the offseason. He’s trimmed 10 lbs off to be ready for the season.

If I didn’t have him on my Dynasty league I’d try to buy him now before camp starts.

Tex

I think he's going to need to gain 10 lbs next off season to increase his durability. Then he'll probably need to shed a different 10 lbs to reshape his body and allow him to be quicker. Then he'll gain 5 lbs in his calves, while dropping 5 lbs in his delts to increase his top end speed.  Then...

 

[Deamon]

I am not picking on your list but I think the overall consensus is out of whack on a lot of these guys. 

I agree with a lot of your comments, but it makes no sense to be that down on almost everyone. According to your "this is too high" on almost all of the top 10, you'd have Zeke #1 and then just have no one after that. Curious to see your top 10 rbs list. 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Mixon has been working hard in the offseason. He’s trimmed 10 lbs off to be ready for the season.

If I didn’t have him on my Dynasty league I’d try to buy him now before camp starts.

Tex

I don't play dynasty--but if I did--I'd be fully on board with this.  Gio Bernard has gotten fewer rushing attempts with every passing season since his rookie year.   Jeremy Hill is gone.  If you look at skill set--Mixon has a very similar skill set to Leveon Bell.  The Bengals have improved their offensive line this season.   The offensive coordinator has said that he invisions Mixon as being a bell cow back. Mixon had some major (and deservingly so) distractions last season and was not in peak shape when the season started.  Basically almost every individual facet that impeded him from having a monster rookie season has either been wiped away or improved upon.  Here are some reads/clips from what some "experts" think.  Make of them as you will.  

https://gridironexperts.com/joe-mixon-fantasy-outlook-2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJB-aP5e7aI

Interesting outlook of him during last regular season

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5mESq1pMEs&t=167s

 

[bostonfred]

I agree with a lot of your comments, but it makes no sense to be that down on almost everyone. According to your "this is too high" on almost all of the top 10, you'd have Zeke #1 and then just have no one after that. Curious to see your top 10 rbs list. 

That's fair.  I haven't done a full list, but off the cuff

Gurley 

Bell

Elliot

Hunt

- tier 1. will all get big volumes of running, receiving and touchdowns.  

Fournette 

David Johnson

Melvin Gordon

- safe bet to get big volume and good productivity. Johnson has the highest ppr upside, but risky. Gordon is in a contract year.  Fournette probably won't get the receptions but gets a lot of high quality touches.

Saquon Barkley

Joe Mixon

Dalvin Cook

Alvin Kamara

Jerrick McKinnon

Devonta Freeman

Lesean McCoy

Rashaad Penny

- 3 down backs with some risk. Kamara'a receptions and touchdown potential boost him into this tier

Derrick Henry

Christian McCaffrey

Jordan Howard

Kenyan Drake

Derrius Guice

Talent is there but volume might be lacking at first

 

[Deamon]

That's fair.  I haven't done a full list, but off the cuff

Gurley 

Bell

Elliot

Hunt

- tier 1. will all get big volumes of running, receiving and touchdowns.  

Fournette 

David Johnson

Melvin Gordon

- safe bet to get big volume and good productivity. Johnson has the highest ppr upside, but risky. Gordon is in a contract year.  Fournette probably won't get the receptions but gets a lot of high quality touches.

Saquon Barkley

Joe Mixon

Dalvin Cook

Alvin Kamara

Jerrick McKinnon

Devonta Freeman

Lesean McCoy

Rashaad Penny

- 3 down backs with some risk. Kamara'a receptions and touchdown potential boost him into this tier

Derrick Henry

Christian McCaffrey

Jordan Howard

Kenyan Drake

Derrius Guice

Talent is there but volume might be lacking at first

Good list. Guess I was just a little curious about how you seemed down on almost everyone (you said you were surprised gurley was #1 on people's lists after only one good year, but then put him #1 yourself. And Barkley you didn't like at #6 but #8 on your list isn't much lower)

Interesting take on mckinnon that high. I think I'd put ajayi in there and am surprised he's out of both lists. Mckinnon is a good add tho but I'd have him lower down. 

 

[bostonfred]

Todd Gurley - I get it but am surprised that a guy who made a huge leap in one year is the consensus number one

Good list. Guess I was just a little curious about how you seemed down on almost everyone (you said you were surprised gurley was #1 on people's lists after only one good year, but then put him #1 yourself. And Barkley you didn't like at #6 but #8 on your list isn't much lower)

Interesting take on mckinnon that high. I think I'd put ajayi in there and am surprised he's out of both lists. Mckinnon is a good add tho but I'd have him lower down. 

I didn't say Gurley shouldn't be number one.  I just said it's surprising that he made the leap considering where he was in 2016. 

Barkley is a tier down from the established stud backs but at or near the top of the tier of potential stud backs.  He was ahead of Gordon, Hunt and Fournette.  So was Kamara.  Moving those two down and the other 3 up makes the list more palatable.  There are probably receivers I'd take ahead of Barkley but I haven't formally done a list. 

McKinnon is lower than I have him projected because of the risk.  If McKinnon succeeds in his role, he could challenge for number one overall.  It wouldn't be the first time for Shanahan.  But several of the backs i mentioned have that same chance, and almost all of them are "safer" picks in the sense that McKinnon is the first guy on the list who I believe could lose the presumed starting job without injury. 

Ajayi is a decent back, and he should be the lead back, but i would put him a tier lower with guys like Michel, Kerryon, Freeman and Hyde.  Guys who should be the lead back in productive rushing offenses and yet still get less than 50 percent of the total production.   Would it shock you to see ajayi get 45 percent, Clement 30 and sproles 20?  It wouldn't shock me to see ajayi get 60 percent or more, either - I am just not as confident in his role as some other guys on that list.  In fact I'd probably rank them Kerryon, Freeman, ajayi, Hyde, Michel today but could see that order changing completely in August. 

 

[Deamon]

I didn't say Gurley shouldn't be number one.  I just said it's surprising that he made the leap considering where he was in 2016. 

Barkley is a tier down from the established stud backs but at or near the top of the tier of potential stud backs.  He was ahead of Gordon, Hunt and Fournette.  So was Kamara.  Moving those two down and the other 3 up makes the list more palatable.  There are probably receivers I'd take ahead of Barkley but I haven't formally done a list. 

McKinnon is lower than I have him projected because of the risk.  If McKinnon succeeds in his role, he could challenge for number one overall.  It wouldn't be the first time for Shanahan.  But several of the backs i mentioned have that same chance, and almost all of them are "safer" picks in the sense that McKinnon is the first guy on the list who I believe could lose the presumed starting job without injury. 

Ajayi is a decent back, and he should be the lead back, but i would put him a tier lower with guys like Michel, Kerryon, Freeman and Hyde.  Guys who should be the lead back in productive rushing offenses and yet still get less than 50 percent of the total production.   Would it shock you to see ajayi get 45 percent, Clement 30 and sproles 20?  It wouldn't shock me to see ajayi get 60 percent or more, either - I am just not as confident in his role as some other guys on that list.  In fact I'd probably rank them Kerryon, Freeman, ajayi, Hyde, Michel today but could see that order changing completely in August. 

Wow mckinnon #1 overall?  I don't see his ceiling being that high, but you make good points. I see him with a higher floor and lower ceiling than you do I think. 

I don't love Hunt that high. His hot start those first 3 games seemed like an outlier to the rest of his season.  I admit he got hot late in the year again, but even including the hot finish he was rb7 after week 3. I'd drop him to the top of the next tier. 

Ajayi I think gets a lot of touches this year. I don't think he'll dominate the backfield by any means. That's not Doug's style. But it's likely his last year in Philly, we have a capable backup should anything happen to him by playoffs, so I think he's used more this year.  Could see the split as ajayi 50, clement 25, sproles 25. 50 percent in that offense is worth more than 75 percent in other offences.

I don't agree with Hyde though. So many mouths to feed there. 

Good write up overall though. 

 

[Football Jones]

Mixon has been working hard in the offseason. He’s trimmed 10 lbs off to be ready for the season.

If I didn’t have him on my Dynasty league I’d try to buy him now before camp starts.

Tex

Mixon is likely to be one of the more polarizing players of 2018. Many FFers got off the bandwagon & many are still on it.

To this day, Mixon was one of harder prospects to scout I've ever ran across, yet I was as familiar with him as anyone being from Oklahoma. 

The issue with Mixon as I stated back then was there was so much projection you had to do with him the way he was used at Oklahoma. Scouting is all about projecting, but the more projecting you have to do, the larger the error margin.

I was leery of Mixon's raw vision & instincts, especially as it relates to his inside running ability which is critical as a feature back. In short, it made me lower on him compared to the rest of the FF community (in general).

I'd buy Mixon at the right price, but those who own him probably aren't willing to take a loss which is essentially what would happen if they sold him at fair value. In most cases, Cook was passed over for Mixon so owners are inherently going to lean to holding rather than selling.

 

[Ack88]

Mixon is likely to be one of the more polarizing players of 2018. Many FFers got off the bandwagon & many are still on it.

To this day, Mixon was one of harder prospects to scout I've ever ran across, yet I was as familiar with him as anyone being from Oklahoma. 

The issue with Mixon as I stated back then was there was so much projection you had to do with him the way he was used at Oklahoma. Scouting is all about projecting, but the more projecting you have to do, the larger the error margin.

I was leery of Mixon's raw vision & instincts, especially as it relates to his inside running ability which is critical as a feature back. In short, it made me lower on him compared to the rest of the FF community (in general).

I'd buy Mixon at the right price, but those who own him probably aren't willing to take a loss which is essentially what would happen if they sold him at fair value. In most cases, Cook was passed over for Mixon so owners are inherently going to lean to holding rather than selling.

What would the right price be for Mixon? Do you see him as a redraft second round player (top 20-28)?

I'm having a difficult time placing a valuation on him I feel comfortable with. Think he might have the most variance at this point.

 

[Football Jones]

What would the right price be for Mixon? Do you see him as a redraft second round player (top 20-28)?

I'm having a difficult time placing a valuation on him I feel comfortable with. Think he might have the most variance at this point.

I probably wouldn’t take Mixon in the 2nd round unless the value at RB was declining rapidly (like if I took a non-QB in the 1st) & had to gamble with an upside guy who’s got a RB1-type ceiling.

Like you, I still have a difficult time assessing Mixon. I agree about his wide range of potential outcomes. I have my doubts, but the raw ability is there. 2017 didn’t clear up much either way, IMO.