Top 10 percentage? (WARNING: Lots of math talk and poor assumptions) (1 Viewer)

[MilesGaming35]

This is from a trade offer I had for G. Wilson. In the league, he finished WR10 and I was offered 2x 26 1sts (expected mid) and was laughed at when I didn't accept it. So, my question is this:
**What percentage of 1st round dynasty draft WRs (12-tm/PPR) have a season where they finish top 10?** I feel like this should inform me of their value when they do vs. future picks. I.e., if I have a top-10 WR, what are the chances that me trading for 2 future 1st round picks would net me a top 10 WR?

I don't know the number, but for easy math let's say that 25% of 1st round WR picks finish top 10 in their career (again, this is the number I'm trying to figure out). If 1/3 of all 1st round picks is a WR (4 total) then 1 per class will be a top 10 at some point (I don't think this is unreasonable since you have repeat WRs in top 10 and also dudes like Puka that were drated outside the top 10 in fantasy drafts). So I would have to hit on AT BEST a 1 in 4 chance (with 1 pick) of choosing the dude...assuming I have the pick of all WRs available. If I have 2 picks, the chance they BOTH hit is only 6.25% and the chance that 1 hits is 43.75% (less than half).

I KNOW THIS IS VERY RUDIMENTARY MATH WITH VAGUE/POOR ASSUMPTIONS...I JUST HOPE SOMEONE HAS THE DATA TO SAY HOW MANY WRS DRAFTED IN THE FIRST ROUND HAVE FINISHED TOP 10 SO I KNOW WHAT MY CHANCES ARE OF BETTER VALUE IF I TRADE AWAY A TOP 10 ASSET.

 

[Gally]

I think you need to open it to more than just WR's. The idea is to hit on a starter regardless of position. Why limit to WR only? I understand you are trading away a WR but if you want to maximize your value on the picks you receive you should open it up to more than WR's. Reason being is that every draft year has different strengths and sometimes WR may not be one of those strengths so you are better off going after a different position to maximize your return.

I know you are trying to simplify things but one of the biggest contributing factors is the talent level of the class you are evaluating. When you said "1st round WR picks finish top 10" is this referring to FF first round WR's or NFL first round WR's?

 

[Jppaul]

so many variables, but I go with 1/3 for my personal evaluations.

When I'm rebuilding, I will use ALL of my high picks on WRs. In one league, I have 5 firsts and 3 seconds next year. I will use ALL 8 on WRs figuring two will be studs, two will be starters, two will bye weeks and two busts.

But... it really depends on your situation. In the two leagues I'm not rebuilding, I wouldn't accept 3 future firsts for any player that I consider an every week starter, because that is the opposite direction of what I want from my team.

So... are you rebuilding? if so, yes, you should've accept the 2 firsts. If you're all-in, then 2 firsts have no value to you.

Go all-in on competing or all-in on rebuilding. Being mediocre keeps you mediocre

 

[MilesGaming35]

I think you need to open it to more than just WR's. The idea is to hit on a starter regardless of position. Why limit to WR only? I understand you are trading away a WR but if you want to maximize your value on the picks you receive you should open it up to more than WR's. Reason being is that every draft year has different strengths and sometimes WR may not be one of those strengths so you are better off going after a different position to maximize your return.

I know you are trying to simplify things but one of the biggest contributing factors is the talent level of the class you are evaluating. When you said "1st round WR picks finish top 10" is this referring to FF first round WR's or NFL first round WR's?

It's a good point, and I would love to be able to open it up to all positions. I was just giving an example for a 1:1 positionally. Ideally there is a database that you can plug in the info you are looking for and could use it for all positions, WR only, etc.

I am talking about FF first round picks (i.e. of the WRs that have been drafted in the top 12 of rookie drafts over the past 10 years, how many of those have finished in the top 10 positionally in FF. Obviously there are a ton of variables (league settings/etc) but the percentage shouldn't change that much based on the dataset.

 

[MilesGaming35]

so many variables, but I go with 1/3 for my personal evaluations.

When I'm rebuilding, I will use ALL of my high picks on WRs. In one league, I have 5 firsts and 3 seconds next year. I will use ALL 8 on WRs figuring two will be studs, two will be starters, two will bye weeks and two busts.

But... it really depends on your situation. In the two leagues I'm not rebuilding, I wouldn't accept 3 future firsts for any player that I consider an every week starter, because that is the opposite direction of what I want from my team.

So... are you rebuilding? if so, yes, you should've accept the 2 firsts. If you're all-in, then 2 firsts have no value to you.

Go all-in on competing or all-in on rebuilding. Being mediocre keeps you mediocre

Yeah that's my fear...staying mediocre. But I'm having trouble deciding if I should rebuild. And if I do...I feel like GW would be a player I would want to keep b/c I'm hoping that I can replace him with the picks I get for him...which drives the question of what chance do I have to do that with future 1sts.

 

[Jppaul]

so many variables, but I go with 1/3 for my personal evaluations.

When I'm rebuilding, I will use ALL of my high picks on WRs. In one league, I have 5 firsts and 3 seconds next year. I will use ALL 8 on WRs figuring two will be studs, two will be starters, two will bye weeks and two busts.

But... it really depends on your situation. In the two leagues I'm not rebuilding, I wouldn't accept 3 future firsts for any player that I consider an every week starter, because that is the opposite direction of what I want from my team.

So... are you rebuilding? if so, yes, you should've accept the 2 firsts. If you're all-in, then 2 firsts have no value to you.

Go all-in on competing or all-in on rebuilding. Being mediocre keeps you mediocre

Yeah that's my fear...staying mediocre. But I'm having trouble deciding if I should rebuild. And if I do...I feel like GW would be a player I would want to keep b/c I'm hoping that I can replace him with the picks I get for him...which drives the question of what chance do I have to do that with future 1sts.

when rebuilding, make your best guess as to what draft slot you'll have by trading or not a great player?

Does keeping GW mean you drop from 1.01 to 1.02? Does your league go freaking nuts over 1.01? In the one league that I'm rebuilding, I'm nearly guaranteed at 1.01 and will definitely trade out for something like 2-3 picks (depending on who's at 1.01 and how much my leaguemates want him) in the area of 1.08-1.10.

I think too many FF players think they're too smart. I'd rather have more dart throws than what i'd GUESS to be a guaranteed player.

 

[eighsse2]

looks up my dynasty draft history

That'd be a goose-egg, boss.

 

[eighsse2]

But in all seriousness (and I know you weren't looking for individuals' draft histories ... but this is what I have), if you cherry-pick it to picks 1.01-1.11, I have only drafted 2-3 WR's in my 12 year dynasty career. I can't remember what pick I used for Beckham back in the day, but it was probably top 10. Other than that: Laquon Treadwell and Quentin Johnston. But if you don't cherry-pick, that would add in my only ever 1.12 WR pick, CeeDee Lamb.

 

[wgoldsph]

I think you're being too specific with your question.

Let's start with - what percentage of top ten rookie picks have a top ten season at their position. Gives us a good starting point for the overall idea. Then we can do a case by case basis.