Top 250 Forward - Ravens Defence (1 Viewer)

[smcindoe]

Yes, yes, the top 250 is a guide, do your own research, etc. I find it to be an extremely valuable resource, because sometimes it forces me to really rethink some assumptions. This is one of those time and I think it's worth a discussion.

The current Top 250 still has the Ravens defence rated quite high. I'm on the verge of dropping them in one league but I'm holding off because FBGs still seems to really like them. But I'm just not seeing the reason for optimism here.

To consider:

- They're the #21 defence is terms of fantasy points scored in my league, tied with the Falcons(!) and behind teams like the Bengals(!).

- The current cheat sheets have them as a mid-20s play this week against the Browns at home. Yes, the Browns have a strong offense, but can a defense really be top-five worthy if they can ever be that bad a play, at home?

- If the Browns are a bad matchup, what about the three games after that: @Chargers, Patriots, Colts. They get the Dolphins in week 15 which will be nice, but then another decent offense in Seattle in week 16 (and the Steelers in week 17). Do many teams have a worse remaining schedule than the Ravens?

- As bad as the offence has been, and with all the sniping and pouting on the sidelines, there has to be at least a chance that this whole situation implodes and getseven worse.

On the other hand, they've been banged up and in theory should be getting healthy. McAllister is back, I believe. Is that enough to make up for all the negatives?

Help me here guys. What am I missing? Other than reputation, why is this defence worth keeping at all, let alone considering top tier?

 

[the_sig]

Yes, yes, the top 250 is a guide, do your own research, etc. I find it to be an extremely valuable resource, because sometimes it forces me to really rethink some assumptions. This is one of those time and I think it's worth a discussion.The current Top 250 still has the Ravens defence rated quite high. I'm on the verge of dropping them in one league but I'm holding off because FBGs still seems to really like them. But I'm just not seeing the reason for optimism here.To consider:- They're the #21 defence is terms of fantasy points scored in my league, tied with the Falcons(!) and behind teams like the Bengals(!).- The current cheat sheets have them as a mid-20s play this week against the Browns at home. Yes, the Browns have a strong offense, but can a defense really be top-five worthy if they can ever be that bad a play, at home?- If the Browns are a bad matchup, what about the three games after that: @Chargers, Patriots, Colts. They get the Dolphins in week 15 which will be nice, but then another decent offense in Seattle in week 16 (and the Steelers in week 17). Do many teams have a worse remaining schedule than the Ravens?- As bad as the offence has been, and with all the sniping and pouting on the sidelines, there has to be at least a chance that this whole situation implodes and getseven worse.On the other hand, they've been banged up and in theory should be getting healthy. McAllister is back, I believe. Is that enough to make up for all the negatives?Help me here guys. What am I missing? Other than reputation, why is this defence worth keeping at all, let alone considering top tier?

I have been in the same boat. Thoughts of dropping them have been creeping in for weeks, and I finally just deceided to drop them primarily based on the remaining matchups as you point out. I too was puzzled by the lofty 250 ranking. I tried to 'bundle' them in on a few trades hoping the name value may add something...not any value there either.

 

[Happy Gilmore]

I made the exact same point in this this thread a few weeks ago. However, I'm still hanging on to them. I guess I was afraid that another playoff team in my league would pick them up and they would start producing. After seeing them the last few weeks, I'm convinced that their only remaining value is the week #15 matchup against Miami. If you are holding them for that reason, you might want to see if Tampa Bay's defense is available. They have Atlanta this week and in week #15. Then they have San Fran in week #16. I think that's the direction I'm headed unless someone can convince me that Baltimore is worth holding on to.

 

[smcindoe]

I have been in the same boat. Thoughts of dropping them have been creeping in for weeks, and I finally just deceided to drop them primarily based on the remaining matchups as you point out. I too was puzzled by the lofty 250 ranking. I tried to 'bundle' them in on a few trades hoping the name value may add something...not any value there either.

Same boat here, they have virtually no trade value (at least once the other guy looks at their ranking).It seems like FBGs has reason to believe they're going to vastly improve their performance over the last two months even though they have a killer schedule. I'm just trying to figure out why...

 

[Hugonel]

Through week 10 I conducted research on Ravens, Patriots, Bears (I own), Jax, Philly, Washington, Chiefs, Cards, and Denver. All except Bears are free agents in my league which is why these were chosen (very small rosters, I had to drop Patriots to fill the bye).

We just count defensive scores, sacks, interceptions and fumble recoveries. Based on sacks/int/fr alone, the points for each team are (higher is better):

Denver 33

Philly 35

Balt 36

Wash 36

Cards 38

Jax 40

Chiefs 41

Bears 45

Pats 45

Then I reviewed their remaining schedules, calculating the sacks/int/fumbles lost by their remaining opponents and came up with the following (higher scores mean easier schedules)

Balt 161

Philly 162

Bears 187

Wash 195

Cards 200

Jax 200

Pats 213

Chiefs 234

Denver 250

I then looked at the first 10 games regarding schedule strength and concluded (roughly) that Baltimore had a fairly average schedule. So, based on their prior performance and remaining schedule, I have serious doubts about their value, at least when you don't focus on points allowed by the defense.

Couple that with the inability to put pressure on the opposing offense due to the mediocre Ravens offense. Not good.

 

[Modog814]

The only thing I can think of it that Balt's defense has been pretty banged up all season (also Chicago's) and perhaps the ranking is based on the assumption that they get healthy sometime in the near future?

 

[smcindoe]

I then looked at the first 10 games regarding schedule strength and concluded (roughly) that Baltimore had a fairly average schedule. So, based on their prior performance and remaining schedule, I have serious doubts about their value, at least when you don't focus on points allowed by the defense.Couple that with the inability to put pressure on the opposing offense due to the mediocre Ravens offense. Not good.

Good post. You've basically taken what I had assumed to be true and put some numbers behind it.I don't suppose Dodds wants to weigh in on his reasoning?

 

[stbugs]

Yes, yes, the top 250 is a guide, do your own research, etc. I find it to be an extremely valuable resource, because sometimes it forces me to really rethink some assumptions. This is one of those time and I think it's worth a discussion.The current Top 250 still has the Ravens defence rated quite high. I'm on the verge of dropping them in one league but I'm holding off because FBGs still seems to really like them. But I'm just not seeing the reason for optimism here.To consider:- They're the #21 defence is terms of fantasy points scored in my league, tied with the Falcons(!) and behind teams like the Bengals(!).- The current cheat sheets have them as a mid-20s play this week against the Browns at home. Yes, the Browns have a strong offense, but can a defense really be top-five worthy if they can ever be that bad a play, at home?- If the Browns are a bad matchup, what about the three games after that: @Chargers, Patriots, Colts. They get the Dolphins in week 15 which will be nice, but then another decent offense in Seattle in week 16 (and the Steelers in week 17). Do many teams have a worse remaining schedule than the Ravens?- As bad as the offence has been, and with all the sniping and pouting on the sidelines, there has to be at least a chance that this whole situation implodes and getseven worse.On the other hand, they've been banged up and in theory should be getting healthy. McAllister is back, I believe. Is that enough to make up for all the negatives?Help me here guys. What am I missing? Other than reputation, why is this defence worth keeping at all, let alone considering top tier?

They aren't. Due to my league rules I had to draft them early and the Pats/Steelers were kept, so I figured I would take them. They weren't half bad, but I dropped them a couple weeks ago based on their results and their upcoming schedule. No way was I going to play them against the Steelers and Cincinnati, etc. Thankfully, one of my league mates grabbed them and played them against the Steelers. I think he even dropped them after that.I actually went with Seattle even though I didn't like their matchup with Cleveland in week 9, but I had no extra room. Seattle has a good schedule coming up and I am likely to get a first round bye, so their week 16/17 matchups are very nice. They were also a top 10 or so defense in my league. Luckily, Burelson got me a punt return TD against Cleveland and the SF game was exactly what I was expecting to see Seattle do with the awful teams they have on their schedule.Sometimes a so-so defense with a cozy schedule is better than a good defense with a tough one. SD had a great game against Indy, but someone that plays Pitt, Dallas, NE, Indy, Cleveland (amazing they are here ), GB, etc. is going to be hard pressed to do well.

 

[smcindoe]

Is there anybody out there who wants to argue that the Ravens still deserve their high ranking?

 

[jabarony]

I think your Canadian way of spelling defense should only apply to hockey.

I wouldn't drop them, though. I would definitely sit them depending on matchups, but they can have a big game at any time.

 

[smcindoe]

I think your Canadian way of spelling defense should only apply to hockey.

I'm a Leafs fan. What do I know about hockey defense?

 

[smcindoe]

Well, another week, another so-so performance from the Ravens defence, and yet they're still in the same spot in the Top 250 forward. I don't get it. Would love to hear from anyone who thinks that ranking is a good one.