Top 3 Pick & The Turn -- Elite QB? Elite TE? Both?? (5 Viewers)

[kyoun1e]

Secured a top 3 pick in a couple leagues and I'm constantly confronted with the same choice at the 2 / 3 turn:

* Elite QB: Allen, Lamar, Daniels, Hurts all available.
* Elite TE: One of Bowers, McBride sitting there as well.

I'm tempted to grab both to be honest. You'd have a weekly advantage at two different positions and don't need to play waiver wire roulette at all (assuming no injury of course).

That said, you'll be left a bit high and dry at RB and WR positions. RB probably tougher since I think I'd go Chase or CD Lamb to start (as I hate the WRs available unless a McConkey or Higgins falls late 2nd). If no RB in picks one through three, that means you're hoping that one of Walker, Conner, Hubbard (or Kamara) fall to you late in the 4th as your RB1. That's a serious gamble all of these RBs have ADPs a bit higher.

Anyways, curious if when the gun is put to the head, how are you playing this? Assume 12 team PPR redraft.

One other wrinkle: We can trade draft picks. I honestly love the 1/2 turn this year. You can get two stud WRs (Nico, B. Thomas) or grab Achane late. I may put my #2 pick up for trade, see if I can get two picks around the 1/2 turn.

Thanks

 

[travdogg]

I think getting a top-3 TE is priority #1 in any draft. Its just such a weekly edge. 2/3 turn typically gives you your choice of the trio.

 

[Scoresman]

I'll give my thoughts on this after the round 3 turn in the FBG Home league I am in, but I have researched this a lot since learning I had the second pick in that draft.

Draft started this morning and I went Bijan at 1.02

 

[kyoun1e]

I'll give my thoughts on this after the round 3 turn in the FBG Home league I am in, but I have researched this a lot since learning I had the second pick in that draft.

Draft started this morning and I went Bijan at 1.02

If Chase is there at 2, I'm taking him. If not, it's going to be CD vs. a top RB. Right now I have no clear direction on Bijan vs. Barkley vs. Gibbs.

Will be curious to know what you decide to do at the turn.

 

[kyoun1e]

I think getting a top-3 TE is priority #1 in any draft. Its just such a weekly edge. 2/3 turn typically gives you your choice of the trio.

Was fortunate enough last year to trade for Bowers early before he blew up. Now drafting him late round 2 is a tough pill to swallow, but that ADP seems right. Could probably get McBride early third.

If I am super confident in my waiver / trading capability, I'd grab both the TE and QB at the turn. Just not sure I can stomach not having either at #1 RB or #WR heading into the round 4/5 turn.

 

[ukblue35]

I'll give my thoughts on this after the round 3 turn in the FBG Home league I am in, but I have researched this a lot since learning I had the second pick in that draft.

Draft started this morning and I went Bijan at 1.02

If Chase is there at 2, I'm taking him. If not, it's going to be CD vs. a top RB. Right now I have no clear direction on Bijan vs. Barkley vs. Gibbs.

Will be curious to know what you decide to do at the turn.

I've got the 3 as well and I'm almost positive I'm going Ceedee at 3. Our guys like to gobble up RB's and on several of my mocks with the league settings and tendencies I can grab London as well in the 2nd.

 

[Desert_Power]

I don't think VBD supports taking either position at the turn.

 

[kyoun1e]

I'll give my thoughts on this after the round 3 turn in the FBG Home league I am in, but I have researched this a lot since learning I had the second pick in that draft.

Draft started this morning and I went Bijan at 1.02

If Chase is there at 2, I'm taking him. If not, it's going to be CD vs. a top RB. Right now I have no clear direction on Bijan vs. Barkley vs. Gibbs.

Will be curious to know what you decide to do at the turn.

I've got the 3 as well and I'm almost positive I'm going Ceedee at 3. Our guys like to gobble up RB's and on several of my mocks with the league settings and tendencies I can grab London as well in the 2nd.

London slipping all the way to the end of round 2? Don't see that taking place.

If anything, I see Higgins and McConkey there if you want to go WR-WR.

 

[Scoresman]

I don't think VBD supports taking either position at the turn.

It rarely does, but there are qualities the early QBs have that VBD don't really account for.

 

[zeeshan2]

Top 3 has to be some form of Chase, Lamb/Jefferson, Bijan/Barkley/Gibbs

The turn is tough because I can't tell who is left or dropping at that turn. I am personally in the camp that you can wait on QB this year

 

[Max Power]

I've had a lot of luck starting the tier for QBs/TES. Get your guys, draft and forget about the position. Draft a shotgun blast of WRs late and its not super hard to find a decent WR 3 at the end of a draft if you take enough swings.

 

[kyoun1e]

I've had a lot of luck starting the tier for QBs/TES. Get your guys, draft and forget about the position. Draft a shotgun blast of WRs late and its not super hard to find a decent WR 3 at the end of a draft if you take enough swings.

Yes, getting a L. Jackson and a McBride would be sweet. If you started with either Bijan or CD you have the ceiling for a top finish at three different positions.

Probably easier to find quality WRs at the 4/5 turn: X. Worthy, G. Pickens, C. Sutton, DK Metcalf, C. Ridley. A lot of decent options there.

Meanwhile I bet at pick 47 and 50 you miss out on Hubbard, Conner, Kamera, Walker. Probably makes more sense to start with an RB at 1.2 if you go TE/QB at the 2/3 turn.

 

[kyoun1e]

Top 3 has to be some form of Chase, Lamb/Jefferson, Bijan/Barkley/Gibbs

The turn is tough because I can't tell who is left or dropping at that turn. I am personally in the camp that you can wait on QB this year

If I bail on a QB, thinking of a combo of a Purdy packaged with say, a D. Maye or C. Williams who can use their legs (although Purdy an underrated runner).

 

[darksideofoz]

I don't think VBD supports taking either position at the turn.

Agreed. I would be tempted to take the TE, but most of the time I wouldn't. I definitely won't take a QB there.

 

[Desert_Power]

I don't think VBD supports taking either position at the turn.

It rarely does, but there are qualities the early QBs have that VBD don't really account for.

It is the least fun to rent out of the rentable positions.

 

[Scoresman]

Ok here are my thoughts.

I think taking QB/TE or even both early is viable this year.

This guy did a study on early draft strategy. He ran a monte carlo simulation coming up with 12,000 team combinations over the last 3 years. His results were basically that the top draft strategies have been Elite QB/RB, WR/WR, Elite QB/WR, and Elite QB/Elite TE, in that order.

I agree that early QB is totally viable. Everyone always says that QB is deep and it usually is true, but there's one thing that the early elite QBs give that the late ones might not, and that's predictability. The QB Konami code is why. The elite QBs these days all have enormous rushing upside that can make up any yearly swings in passing production, and that makes them very predictably elite. You know they are going to be top at the position. The later round QBs don't have this same guarantee. VBD doesnt really take this into account either.

For me, I'm basing this decision partially on league rules. I'm in a league with 6 point passing TDs, and in this case, the konami code isnt quite an advantage. 4 point passing TDs I'm probably all over early QB.

As for drafting both QB/TE early, I think this is normally not a very good idea but could be ok this year because of how deep WR is from WR-20-40. You can conceivably go QB/TE early and catch up at WR with multiple picks in rounds 5-7 where I think the position is incredibly deep. RB is harder to make up. I like to get out of the first 4 rounds with 2 good/great RBs, and going QB/TE early means you need to get one of your guys in round 4 which can be a tough ask.

JJ Zachariason recently did a podcast talking about this and he agrees there may be some value this year in a "filling out your starters" strategy, going elite QB/TE early if the right guys fall and others don't.

 

[kyoun1e]

Ok here are my thoughts.

I think taking QB/TE or even both early is viable this year.

This guy did a study on early draft strategy. He ran a monte carlo simulation coming up with 12,000 team combinations over the last 3 years. His results were basically that the top draft strategies have been Elite QB/RB, WR/WR, Elite QB/WR, and Elite QB/Elite TE, in that order.

I agree that early QB is totally viable. Everyone always says that QB is deep and it usually is true, but there's one thing that the early elite QBs give that the late ones might not, and that's predictability. The QB Konami code is why. The elite QBs these days all have enormous rushing upside that can make up any yearly swings in passing production, and that makes them very predictably elite. You know they are going to be top at the position. The later round QBs don't have this same guarantee. VBD doesnt really take this into account either.

For me, I'm basing this decision partially on league rules. I'm in a league with 6 point passing TDs, and in this case, the konami code isnt quite an advantage. 4 point passing TDs I'm probably all over early QB.

As for drafting both QB/TE early, I think this is normally not a very good idea but could be ok this year because of how deep WR is from WR-20-40. You can conceivably go QB/TE early and catch up at WR with multiple picks in rounds 5-7 where I think the position is incredibly deep. RB is harder to make up. I like to get out of the first 4 rounds with 2 good/great RBs, and going QB/TE early means you need to get one of your guys in round 4 which can be a tough ask.

JJ Zachariason recently did a podcast talking about this and he agrees there may be some value this year in a "filling out your starters" strategy, going elite QB/TE early if the right guys fall and others don't.

Agree with most of this.

This would favor going RB at 2 (probably Bijan) and then at minimum QB at the 2/3 turn.

Also agree you are more likely to make up ground at WR vs. RB. After the Conner/Walker/Hubbard/Kamara tier things dry up quick and you're looking at a #1 RB that could end up being D. Swift/T. Henderson/Harvey. Meanwhile, in the same range you've got WRs Worthy, Pickens, Sutton, Metcalf, Ridley, Flowers.

I have a lot of faith...maybe too much faith...in my ability to get ahead of the crowd on RB / WR lotto tickets which will have me thinking of going RB/TE/QB in rounds 1-3.

 

[Desert_Power]

Ok here are my thoughts.

I think taking QB/TE or even both early is viable this year.

This guy did a study on early draft strategy. He ran a monte carlo simulation coming up with 12,000 team combinations over the last 3 years. His results were basically that the top draft strategies have been Elite QB/RB, WR/WR, Elite QB/WR, and Elite QB/Elite TE, in that order.

I agree that early QB is totally viable. Everyone always says that QB is deep and it usually is true, but there's one thing that the early elite QBs give that the late ones might not, and that's predictability. The QB Konami code is why. The elite QBs these days all have enormous rushing upside that can make up any yearly swings in passing production, and that makes them very predictably elite. You know they are going to be top at the position. The later round QBs don't have this same guarantee. VBD doesnt really take this into account either.

For me, I'm basing this decision partially on league rules. I'm in a league with 6 point passing TDs, and in this case, the konami code isnt quite an advantage. 4 point passing TDs I'm probably all over early QB.

As for drafting both QB/TE early, I think this is normally not a very good idea but could be ok this year because of how deep WR is from WR-20-40. You can conceivably go QB/TE early and catch up at WR with multiple picks in rounds 5-7 where I think the position is incredibly deep. RB is harder to make up. I like to get out of the first 4 rounds with 2 good/great RBs, and going QB/TE early means you need to get one of your guys in round 4 which can be a tough ask.

JJ Zachariason recently did a podcast talking about this and he agrees there may be some value this year in a "filling out your starters" strategy, going elite QB/TE early if the right guys fall and others don't.

Am I missing something about why all of these have a TE picked in the 5th round?

 

[Ilov80s]

Roster requirements and scoring matters a lot but I think's very viable. I think you need to be fluid enough to adjust if someone like AJ Brown slips to you. Also, make sure you have a firm opinion on Jacobs, Bucky, Kyren, Taylor because as good as Bowers might be this year, the upside of hitting on a RB1 season is more than hitting on a top 3 TE season.

In a full PPR league if you start Chase/Lamar/McBride I think you're in good shape to get a few high profile WRs who are currently at lower than usual price (DJ Moore, Pickens, DK, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Deebo), young players with upside (Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, Jayden Higgins, RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson,Tyrone Tracy, Golden).

Of course we don't know who but some of those undervalued receivers are going to return to form and a couple of those young players are going to be the Brian Thomas, JSN, Chase Brown of 2025. Just a matter of getting as many of those players as you can and hoping you get lucky. If it breaks your way, you could have a super team.

 

[Instinctive]

I'll give my thoughts on this after the round 3 turn in the FBG Home league I am in, but I have researched this a lot since learning I had the second pick in that draft.

Draft started this morning and I went Bijan at 1.02

Same

 

[wgoldsph]

I'm in a league with 3 flex spots. Might try to get all of the top TE

 

[kyoun1e]

Just did a couple of mock drafts where I targeted both the TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. In one, I grabbed a #1 RB at pick 2 and the other I grabbed a #1 WR with pick 2. Turned out as follows:

RB at 1.2 (Bijan)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: Bijan. Robinson, I. Pacheco, T. Tracy, T. Etienne (T. Allgiere, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: T. McLaurin, C. Ridley, J. Jennings, R. Shaheed
* TE: B. Bowers

Comments: Don't love my WR corp, but don't hate them either. Could have had DK Metcalf instead of McClaurin.

WR at 1.2 (CD)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: J. Conner, T. Tracy, Brian Robinson, R. Stevenson (J. Mason, T. Benson, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: CD Lamb, DK Metcalf, J. Jennings, Pop Douglass
* TE: T. McBride

Comments: Felt very, very lucky that J. Conner was still around in round 4 because after that there's a serious cliff. If I didn't grab Conner, I would absolutely hate my RB corp.

Leaning towards taking an RB first. In ESPN, there's a LOT of mispriced WRs later on like J. Jennings, R. Pearsall, the rookie WRs, and others.

 

[Desert_Power]

Just did a couple of mock drafts where I targeted both the TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. In one, I grabbed a #1 RB at pick 2 and the other I grabbed a #1 WR with pick 2. Turned out as follows:

RB at 1.2 (Bijan)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: Bijan. Robinson, I. Pacheco, T. Tracy, T. Etienne (T. Allgiere, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: T. McLaurin, C. Ridley, J. Jennings, R. Shaheed
* TE: B. Bowers

Comments: Don't love my WR corp, but don't hate them either. Could have had DK Metcalf instead of McClaurin.

WR at 1.2 (CD)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: J. Conner, T. Tracy, Brian Robinson, R. Stevenson (J. Mason, T. Benson, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: CD Lamb, DK Metcalf, J. Jennings, Pop Douglass
* TE: T. McBride

Comments: Felt very, very lucky that J. Conner was still around in round 4 because after that there's a serious cliff. If I didn't grab Conner, I would absolutely hate my RB corp.

Leaning towards taking an RB first. In ESPN, there's a LOT of mispriced WRs later on like J. Jennings, R. Pearsall, the rookie WRs, and others.

I'd leave these drafts pretty upset.

 

[Scoresman]

Just did a couple of mock drafts where I targeted both the TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. In one, I grabbed a #1 RB at pick 2 and the other I grabbed a #1 WR with pick 2. Turned out as follows:

RB at 1.2 (Bijan)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: Bijan. Robinson, I. Pacheco, T. Tracy, T. Etienne (T. Allgiere, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: T. McLaurin, C. Ridley, J. Jennings, R. Shaheed
* TE: B. Bowers

Comments: Don't love my WR corp, but don't hate them either. Could have had DK Metcalf instead of McClaurin.

WR at 1.2 (CD)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: J. Conner, T. Tracy, Brian Robinson, R. Stevenson (J. Mason, T. Benson, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: CD Lamb, DK Metcalf, J. Jennings, Pop Douglass
* TE: T. McBride

Comments: Felt very, very lucky that J. Conner was still around in round 4 because after that there's a serious cliff. If I didn't grab Conner, I would absolutely hate my RB corp.

Leaning towards taking an RB first. In ESPN, there's a LOT of mispriced WRs later on like J. Jennings, R. Pearsall, the rookie WRs, and others.

Yeah, not great to be honest, but when you go early QB/TE one of the tradeoffs is being very liberal with your FAAB spending on the first RB/WRs that come up.

Who was available at RB/WR at 2.11 and again at 3.03. I feel like I'm only going early QB if certain guys are drafted

 

[kyoun1e]

Just did a couple of mock drafts where I targeted both the TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. In one, I grabbed a #1 RB at pick 2 and the other I grabbed a #1 WR with pick 2. Turned out as follows:

RB at 1.2 (Bijan)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: Bijan. Robinson, I. Pacheco, T. Tracy, T. Etienne (T. Allgiere, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: T. McLaurin, C. Ridley, J. Jennings, R. Shaheed
* TE: B. Bowers

Comments: Don't love my WR corp, but don't hate them either. Could have had DK Metcalf instead of McClaurin.

WR at 1.2 (CD)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: J. Conner, T. Tracy, Brian Robinson, R. Stevenson (J. Mason, T. Benson, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: CD Lamb, DK Metcalf, J. Jennings, Pop Douglass
* TE: T. McBride

Comments: Felt very, very lucky that J. Conner was still around in round 4 because after that there's a serious cliff. If I didn't grab Conner, I would absolutely hate my RB corp.

Leaning towards taking an RB first. In ESPN, there's a LOT of mispriced WRs later on like J. Jennings, R. Pearsall, the rookie WRs, and others.

Yeah, not great to be honest, but when you go early QB/TE one of the tradeoffs is being very liberal with your FAAB spending on the first RB/WRs that come up.

Who was available at RB/WR at 2.11 and again at 3.03. I feel like I'm only going early QB if certain guys are drafted

T. Higgins and L. McConkey were both there in both drafts. I really feel after these two go you hit a cliff. I really don't love the WRs that are in this area either. T. Hill...I'll pass. D. Adams...Stafford injury. JSN...I don't know.

C. Brown was sniped right before my 2nd round pick...he's on the rise. None of Jacobs, J. Taylor, or B. Irving made it to my second round pick. If any of those dropped I'd be tempted to ditch TE there.

If I were to ditch one of TE or QB here, I think I'd lean QB. I'd probably grab a Purdy and a running QB (D. Maye, Caleb) in back to back rounds.

 

[kyoun1e]

Just did a couple of mock drafts where I targeted both the TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. In one, I grabbed a #1 RB at pick 2 and the other I grabbed a #1 WR with pick 2. Turned out as follows:

RB at 1.2 (Bijan)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: Bijan. Robinson, I. Pacheco, T. Tracy, T. Etienne (T. Allgiere, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: T. McLaurin, C. Ridley, J. Jennings, R. Shaheed
* TE: B. Bowers

Comments: Don't love my WR corp, but don't hate them either. Could have had DK Metcalf instead of McClaurin.

WR at 1.2 (CD)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: J. Conner, T. Tracy, Brian Robinson, R. Stevenson (J. Mason, T. Benson, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: CD Lamb, DK Metcalf, J. Jennings, Pop Douglass
* TE: T. McBride

Comments: Felt very, very lucky that J. Conner was still around in round 4 because after that there's a serious cliff. If I didn't grab Conner, I would absolutely hate my RB corp.

Leaning towards taking an RB first. In ESPN, there's a LOT of mispriced WRs later on like J. Jennings, R. Pearsall, the rookie WRs, and others.

I'd leave these drafts pretty upset.

I hear ya, but that's the price you pay I guess.

You still have three players who could be #1 at their respective positions in rounds 1-3.

 

[Scoresman]

Just did a couple of mock drafts where I targeted both the TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. In one, I grabbed a #1 RB at pick 2 and the other I grabbed a #1 WR with pick 2. Turned out as follows:

RB at 1.2 (Bijan)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: Bijan. Robinson, I. Pacheco, T. Tracy, T. Etienne (T. Allgiere, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: T. McLaurin, C. Ridley, J. Jennings, R. Shaheed
* TE: B. Bowers

Comments: Don't love my WR corp, but don't hate them either. Could have had DK Metcalf instead of McClaurin.

WR at 1.2 (CD)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: J. Conner, T. Tracy, Brian Robinson, R. Stevenson (J. Mason, T. Benson, R. Davis, B. Allen)
* WR: CD Lamb, DK Metcalf, J. Jennings, Pop Douglass
* TE: T. McBride

Comments: Felt very, very lucky that J. Conner was still around in round 4 because after that there's a serious cliff. If I didn't grab Conner, I would absolutely hate my RB corp.

Leaning towards taking an RB first. In ESPN, there's a LOT of mispriced WRs later on like J. Jennings, R. Pearsall, the rookie WRs, and others.

Yeah, not great to be honest, but when you go early QB/TE one of the tradeoffs is being very liberal with your FAAB spending on the first RB/WRs that come up.

Who was available at RB/WR at 2.11 and again at 3.03. I feel like I'm only going early QB if certain guys are drafted

T. Higgins and L. McConkey were both there in both drafts. I really feel after these two go you hit a cliff. I really don't love the WRs that are in this area either. T. Hill...I'll pass. D. Adams...Stafford injury. JSN...I don't know.

C. Brown was sniped right before my 2nd round pick...he's on the rise. None of Jacobs, J. Taylor, or B. Irving made it to my second round pick. If any of those dropped I'd be tempted to ditch TE there.

If I were to ditch one of TE or QB here, I think I'd lean QB. I'd probably grab a Purdy and a running QB (D. Maye, Caleb) in back to back rounds.

I probably take McConkey at 2.11 and then either Lamar or Allen at 3.02.

This is why I like starting with RB in round 1. Makes it much easier to pull the trigger on QB or TE right after. Then you've got a Bijan/McConkey/Lamar start which looks much better. You can cross your fingers for Kittle at 4.11.

 

[Instinctive]

So I went Bijan, Allen, Tyreek

Probably would have taken McBride and Allen if both had been there.

 

[Scoresman]

1.02 in FBG Home League 2.

Went Bijan, Bucky, McBride

Couldnt pass up Bucky that late in round 2 as the big dropoff from him to the Breece/Cook tier was staring right at me.

After this, it was between McConkey and McBride, in that order. Ladd was another "last guy in his tier" pick that I would not have passed up but he went right before me.

Decided against QB because at 6 points/passing TD in these leagues, it brings the later round pocket passing QBs a bit closer to the Konami code QBs. And with full PPR, I figure someone like McBride is the slightly better play than QB. We'll see.

 

[kyoun1e]

So I went Bijan, Allen, Tyreek

Probably would have taken McBride and Allen if both had been there.

McBride was gone at the turn? Early.

 

[kyoun1e]

1.02 in FBG Home League 2.

Went Bijan, Bucky, McBride

Couldnt pass up Bucky that late in round 2 as the big dropoff from him to the Breece/Cook tier was staring right at me.

After this, it was between McConkey and McBride, in that order. Ladd was another "last guy in his tier" pick that I would not have passed up but he went right before me.

Decided against QB because at 6 points/passing TD in these leagues, it brings the later round pocket passing QBs a bit closer to the Konami code QBs. And with full PPR, I figure someone like McBride is the slightly better play than QB. We'll see.

Yup. Those RB and WR tiers pretty much end there with Irving/Brown and Higgins/McConkey. Those are the decisions right there if they are available.

Who did you end up with at QB?

 

[Scoresman]

1.02 in FBG Home League 2.

Went Bijan, Bucky, McBride

Couldnt pass up Bucky that late in round 2 as the big dropoff from him to the Breece/Cook tier was staring right at me.

After this, it was between McConkey and McBride, in that order. Ladd was another "last guy in his tier" pick that I would not have passed up but he went right before me.

Decided against QB because at 6 points/passing TD in these leagues, it brings the later round pocket passing QBs a bit closer to the Konami code QBs. And with full PPR, I figure someone like McBride is the slightly better play than QB. We'll see.

Yup. Those RB and WR tiers pretty much end there with Irving/Brown and Higgins/McConkey. Those are the decisions right there if they are available.

Who did you end up with at QB?

Still drafting. At this point not sure. ADP in this draft seems to be getting thrown out the window.

 

[Instinctive]

So I went Bijan, Allen, Tyreek

Probably would have taken McBride and Allen if both had been there.

McBride was gone at the turn? Early.

Yeah I really expected to get him

 

[kyoun1e]

So I went Bijan, Allen, Tyreek

Probably would have taken McBride and Allen if both had been there.

McBride was gone at the turn? Early.

Yeah I really expected to get him

At least that made the decision to bail on TE easier. Both Bowers and McBride are going late 2nd now. And Kittle's on the rise as well firmly in round 3.

 

[Instinctive]

So I went Bijan, Allen, Tyreek

Probably would have taken McBride and Allen if both had been there.

McBride was gone at the turn? Early.

Yeah I really expected to get him

At least that made the decision to bail on TE easier. Both Bowers and McBride are going late 2nd now. And Kittle's on the rise as well firmly in round 3.

Yeah I'll probably be close to last to take one now. Or maybe someone with a normal ADP will fall a couple rounds.

 

[Gatorade]

1.02 in FBG Home League 2.

Went Bijan, Bucky, McBride

Couldnt pass up Bucky that late in round 2 as the big dropoff from him to the Breece/Cook tier was staring right at me.

After this, it was between McConkey and McBride, in that order. Ladd was another "last guy in his tier" pick that I would not have passed up but he went right before me.

Decided against QB because at 6 points/passing TD in these leagues, it brings the later round pocket passing QBs a bit closer to the Konami code QBs. And with full PPR, I figure someone like McBride is the slightly better play than QB. We'll see.

At. 1.4 in $50 league I went
Bijan
Chase Brown
McBride

In Home league 2, I would have taken McBride at 3.4 of you had not taken him at 3.2.
At 2.8 it was a hard decision between Bucky and Jacobs and I took Jacobs.

 

[kyoun1e]

So I went Bijan, Allen, Tyreek

Probably would have taken McBride and Allen if both had been there.

McBride was gone at the turn? Early.

Yeah I really expected to get him

At least that made the decision to bail on TE easier. Both Bowers and McBride are going late 2nd now. And Kittle's on the rise as well firmly in round 3.

Yeah I'll probably be close to last to take one now. Or maybe someone with a normal ADP will fall a couple rounds.

I've been eyeing a tag team in round 10ish of J. Fergason and C. Loveland if I do decide to bail. The WRs and RBs in the earlier rounds are too juicy.

 

[wgoldsph]

So I went Bijan, Allen, Tyreek

Probably would have taken McBride and Allen if both had been there.

McBride was gone at the turn? Early.

Yeah I really expected to get him

At least that made the decision to bail on TE easier. Both Bowers and McBride are going late 2nd now. And Kittle's on the rise as well firmly in round 3.

Yeah I'll probably be close to last to take one now. Or maybe someone with a normal ADP will fall a couple rounds.

I've been eyeing a tag team in round 10ish of J. Fergason and C. Loveland if I do decide to bail. The WRs and RBs in the earlier rounds are too juicy.

Only problem is Loveland has been going earlier than adp in almost every draft I've been in.

 

[kyoun1e]

Just did a couple more mocks but this time I decided to forgo the elite TE, but did go elite QB. First one went RB first, second one went WR 1.

Team 1 (Bijan at 1.2)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: Bijan, I. Pacheco, T. Pollard, R. Stevenson (R. Davis, I. Guerrendo)
* WR: L. McConkey, G. Pickens, E. Egbuka, D. Slayton
* TE: J. Fergason, D. Kinkaid

Team 2 (CD at 1.2)

* QB: L. Jackson
* RB: J. Conner, I. Pacheco, T. Pollard, R. Stevenson (R. Davis, I. Guerrendo)
* WR: CD Lamb, L. McConkey, G. Pickens, J. Jennings
* TE: J. Fergason, D. Kinkaid

Missed out on Loveland both times.

Team 2 draft saw all the RBs dry up by the time the turn hit so went WR-WR. J. Conner as my #1 RB not ideal, but the depth is good.

Love my RBs on team 1, but of course, my WRs are meh there.

Really hate the idea of playing the wire every week for a TE.

Missed out on Loveland both times.

 

[wgoldsph]

Missed out on Loveland both times.

Told ya

 

[nittanylion]

I wonder very much how much this whole study would change if he ran the sims for *8* starters, instead of 7, which, I think is a more common/relevant configuration, as in either:

1/2/2/1 + 2 Flex
1/2/3/1 + 1 Flex

...presently, I'm traveling, busy and tired all at the same time...does anyone have any deep (or shallow) thoughts as to how much different the sims/conclusions might play out be adding an 8th starter, either in the form of an added FL or WR?

 

[nittanylion]

Ok here are my thoughts.

I think taking QB/TE or even both early is viable this year.

This guy did a study on early draft strategy. He ran a monte carlo simulation coming up with 12,000 team combinations over the last 3 years. His results were basically that the top draft strategies have been Elite QB/RB, WR/WR, Elite QB/WR, and Elite QB/Elite TE, in that order.

I agree that early QB is totally viable. Everyone always says that QB is deep and it usually is true, but there's one thing that the early elite QBs give that the late ones might not, and that's predictability. The QB Konami code is why. The elite QBs these days all have enormous rushing upside that can make up any yearly swings in passing production, and that makes them very predictably elite. You know they are going to be top at the position. The later round QBs don't have this same guarantee. VBD doesnt really take this into account either.

For me, I'm basing this decision partially on league rules. I'm in a league with 6 point passing TDs, and in this case, the konami code isnt quite an advantage. 4 point passing TDs I'm probably all over early QB.

As for drafting both QB/TE early, I think this is normally not a very good idea but could be ok this year because of how deep WR is from WR-20-40. You can conceivably go QB/TE early and catch up at WR with multiple picks in rounds 5-7 where I think the position is incredibly deep. RB is harder to make up. I like to get out of the first 4 rounds with 2 good/great RBs, and going QB/TE early means you need to get one of your guys in round 4 which can be a tough ask.

JJ Zachariason recently did a podcast talking about this and he agrees there may be some value this year in a "filling out your starters" strategy, going elite QB/TE early if the right guys fall and others don't.

I think this guy is pretty sharp, and I like the cut of his jib. There's not a ton of content on his site, yet, but I like what I'm reading so far. Looking forward to reading more.

In the comments, post one of his articles, someone asks him about being able to curate his data for other scoring systems/lineup options, and he said his programs are structured to do just that, and that he's going to be generating more date based on other Scoring/Lineup options in the future.

I'll be keeping an eye out.

 

[kyoun1e]

Latest mock 12 team PPR. Waited on both TE and QB after Bowers and McBride were gone and didn't want to miss the boat on a #1 RB (B. Irving) in round 3 and hope that a J. Conner is still there in round 4:

* QB: D. Prescott, D. Maye
* RB: B. Irving, T. Henderson, I. Pacheco, T. Pollard (B. Allen, R. Davis)
* WR: J. Chase, L. McConkey, X. Worthy (D. Slayton)
* TE: T. Kraft, C. Loveland

Felt the need to double up at both QB and TE. Prescott seems like he could be a value this year and could be passing left and right with no running game. Figured grab a running QB as well. If not Maye, was looking for C. Williams or J. Fields who have a high ceiling (and maybe low floor). Same goes for TE. Decent starter in Kraft with the hopes that Loveland is this year's Laporta.

Damn. Don't mind it.

Didn't love reaching for Henderson late in round 4, but getting Pacheco and Pollard after was nice.

 

[Kuz]

Latest mock 12 team PPR. Waited on both TE and QB after Bowers and McBride were gone and didn't want to miss the boat on a #1 RB (B. Irving) in round 3 and hope that a J. Conner is still there in round 4:

* QB: D. Prescott, D. Maye
* RB: B. Irving, T. Henderson, I. Pacheco, T. Pollard (B. Allen, R. Davis)
* WR: J. Chase, L. McConkey, X. Worthy (D. Slayton)
* TE: T. Kraft, C. Loveland

Felt the need to double up at both QB and TE. Prescott seems like he could be a value this year and could be passing left and right with no running game. Figured grab a running QB as well. If not Maye, was looking for C. Williams or J. Fields who have a high ceiling (and maybe low floor). Same goes for TE. Decent starter in Kraft with the hopes that Loveland is this year's Laporta.

Damn. Don't mind it.

Didn't love reaching for Henderson late in round 4, but getting Pacheco and Pollard after was nice.

This mock looks like it turned out well.. Nice looking squad

 

[kyoun1e]

Latest mock 12 team PPR. Waited on both TE and QB after Bowers and McBride were gone and didn't want to miss the boat on a #1 RB (B. Irving) in round 3 and hope that a J. Conner is still there in round 4:

* QB: D. Prescott, D. Maye
* RB: B. Irving, T. Henderson, I. Pacheco, T. Pollard (B. Allen, R. Davis)
* WR: J. Chase, L. McConkey, X. Worthy (D. Slayton)
* TE: T. Kraft, C. Loveland

Felt the need to double up at both QB and TE. Prescott seems like he could be a value this year and could be passing left and right with no running game. Figured grab a running QB as well. If not Maye, was looking for C. Williams or J. Fields who have a high ceiling (and maybe low floor). Same goes for TE. Decent starter in Kraft with the hopes that Loveland is this year's Laporta.

Damn. Don't mind it.

Didn't love reaching for Henderson late in round 4, but getting Pacheco and Pollard after was nice.

This mock looks like it turned out well.. Nice looking squad

It's great...if you have conviction on Dak. All signs point to him throwing a ton. Maye with upside. TEs with upside.

Recency bias is killing me. I've gone elite QB with great success the last couple of years.

I tell ya, if you can nail the late QBs and TEs this year you are going to kill it.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

@kyoun1e I am in the same situation as you. I am picking #2 and have done a ton of mocks, going back and forth between taking a TE and/or QB early.

More often than not I like my teams more overall when I pass on both and load up on WR/RB. I like Engram late-ish and a Prescott and another QB (Stroud maybe?) late.

 

[Ray Barboni]

I feel like you are hamstringing yourself if you take a top QB and TE that early. Makes it much harder to fill out your roster with stud RB/WR’s.

Especially when there’s so many late QB/TE’s to target. Downside here, is that you’ll most likely have to roster 2 of each (at least to begin the year). I just don’t see the RB/WR’s as being difference makers in those later rounds. Whereas the late QB/TE can easily get you by if you take the skill players earlier.

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

If I have a top 3 pick, I would be thrilled to grab McBride in Round 2

 

[Instinctive]

As I mock more and more and look at the FBG home leagues, I feel like you if you're a top 3 pick and you take a RB, you should consider hammering RB with two more picks, or IMO take McBride and a RB. There's a lot of WR value in 4/5/6/7/8/9. If McBride and most good RBs are gone (happened to me sadly, although I may like my team better in that draft if I took James Cook or Kyren Williams over Tyreek), I think it's Allen and best available WR. If McBride and Allen and all the RBs in the 2nd tier are gone...I guess just cry, or maybe that means London fell. Or take someone like Aj Brown and Tyreek and hope for home runs.