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Top10 RB - from 'last year' to 'this year' - return ra (1 Viewer)

JayMan

JayMan

Footballguy
I have looked at the last 10 years ('97-'06) and found out that 46% of Top10 RBs in year N-1 stay there in year N... Obvisouly, there are many different scenarios causing this (rookies coming in, change of teams, change of role, injuries, etc.) and we can't expect history to repeat itself... but to ignore history altogether is usually a good plan to fail...

Last 10 years, number of returnees: 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 6, 4, 5, 6

With that in mind, I thought it would be a fun game to try and predict which of the 5RBs from '06 would stay in the Top10... and who you think will be the 5 guys that jump in this year?

(I know it's nothing scientific... And I certainly know there are no proof saying that it will be 5... might be 10, might be 6, might be 0... just play along) :confused:

Top10RBs in '06 (FBG scoring) - pick 5 (and choose 5 others) :

LaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonSteven JacksonFrank GoreWillie ParkerBrian WestbrookTiki BarberMaurice Jones-DrewRudi JohnsonLadell BettsDont' laugh at Tiki!...Last 10 years data:

Code: 
2006-01-LaDainian Tomlinson-427.3-x2006-02-Larry Johnson-------333.9-x2006-03-Steven Jackson------329.4-2006-04-Frank Gore----------272.0-2006-05-Willie Parker-------267.6-2006-06-Brian Westbrook-----257.6-2006-07-Tiki Barber---------242.7-x2006-08-Maurice Jones-Drew--227.7-2006-09-Rudi Johnson--------215.3-x2006-10-Ladell Betts--------189.9-2005-01-Shaun Alexander-----363.8-x2005-02-Larry Johnson-------335.3-2005-03-LaDainian Tomlinson-317.6-x2005-04-Tiki Barber---------305.0-x2005-05-Edgerrin James------268.3-x2005-06-Clinton Portis------244.1-2005-07-Rudi Johnson--------226.8-x2005-08-LaMont Jordan-------224.8-2005-09-Thomas Jones--------201.8-2005-10-Mike Anderson-------200.6-2004-01-Shaun Alexander-----306.6-x2004-02-Tiki Barber---------299.6-2004-03-LaDainian Tomlinson-287.5-x2004-04-Curtis Martin-------278.2-2004-05-Domanick Williams---261.6-2004-06-Edgerrin James------257.1-x2004-07-Corey Dillon--------251.8-2004-08-Rudi Johnson--------225.8-2004-09-Willis McGahee------207.7-2004-10-Brian Westbrook-----205.5-2003-01-Priest Holmes-------373.0-x2003-02-Ahman Green---------345.0-2003-03-LaDainian Tomlinson-344.1-x2003-04-Jamal Lewis---------311.1-2003-05-Clinton Portis------274.5-x2003-06-Shaun Alexander-----269.0-x2003-07-Deuce McAllister----263.7-x2003-08-Fred Taylor---------236.2-2003-09-Ricky Williams------232.3-x2003-10-Edgerrin James------221.1-2002-01-Priest Holmes-------372.7-x2002-02-Ricky Williams------323.6-x2002-03-LaDainian Tomlinson-307.2-x2002-04-Clinton Portis------289.2-2002-05-Shaun Alexander-----271.5-x2002-06-Deuce McAllister----270.0-2002-07-Tiki Barber---------264.3-2002-08-Travis Henry--------258.7-2002-09-Charlie Garner------256.3-2002-10-Eddie George--------226.0-2001-01-Marshall Faulk------340.7-x2001-02-Priest Holmes-------276.9-2001-03-Ahman Green---------264.1-x2001-04-Shaun Alexander-----262.1-2001-05-Curtis Martin-------248.2-x2001-06-Corey Dillon--------231.3-2001-07-LaDainian Tomlinson-220.3-2001-08-Ricky Williams------217.6-2001-09-Antowain Smith------212.9-2001-10-Stephen Davis-------193.7-2000-01-Marshall Faulk------374.9-x2000-02-Edgerrin James------338.3-x2000-03-Eddie George--------292.2-x2000-04-Mike Anderson-------255.6-2000-05-Ahman Green---------251.4-2000-06-Fred Taylor---------247.9-2000-07-Robert Smith--------246.9-2000-08-Ricky Watters-------239.5-x2000-09-Charlie Garner------238.9-x2000-10-Curtis Martin-------237.2-x1999-01-Edgerrin James------315.9-1999-02-Marshall Faulk------314.9-x1999-03-Eddie George--------254.2-1999-04-Stephen Davis-------253.6-1999-05-Emmitt Smith--------229.6-x1999-06-Dorsey Levens-------220.7-1999-07-Charlie Garner------212.4-1999-08-Curtis Martin-------202.3-x1999-09-Ricky Watters-------201.7-x1999-10-Duce Staley---------192.7-1998-01-Terrell Davis-------360.5-x1998-02-Jamal Anderson------312.5-x1998-03-Marshall Faulk------282.7-x1998-04-Fred Taylor---------266.4-1998-05-Garrison Hearst-----264.5-1998-06-Emmitt Smith--------240.7-1998-07-Curtis Martin-------219.2-1998-08-Robert Edwards------216.6-1998-09-Ricky Watters-------215.2-x1998-10-Barry Sanders-------202.0-x1997-01-Barry Sanders-------319.8-x1997-02-Terrell Davis-------293.7-x1997-03-Dorsey Levens-------252.5-1997-04-Jerome Bettis-------231.5-x1997-05-Napoleon Kaufman----217.7-1997-06-Karim Abdul-Jabbar--211.3-x1997-07-Marshall Faulk------200.5-1997-08-Corey Dillon--------198.8-1997-09-Ricky Watters-------197.0-x1997-10-Jamal Anderson------188.6-x
 
Still top 10:

Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, LJohnson, RJohnson

Out:

Parker, Westbrook, Barber, Jones-Drew, Betts (WoW I had no clue he was top 10)

In:

Alexander, Addai, McGahee, James, Benson

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm certain of one dropping out, Tiki, and for some reason I think this is the year Rudi drops from the top 10. With no receiving stats, a dropping ypc (3.8 last year) and a possibly worse line I think he might be vulnerable to drop a few spots (into the teens). Three others that are possibilities IMO are Drew (very TD heavy and Taylor is back), Duece (will probably lose a few more touchs to Bush and he was only in 10th by 2 pts) and possibly Parker depending on how they use their multiback approach.

Going into the top 10 in no particular order, I'd guess...SA, Addai, McGahee, Henry and Portis.

ETA... I was working off a different top 10 list that had Deuce at 10 instead of Betts and Betts is sure thing to drop out as well.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Remaining:

L Tomlinson

S Jackson

R Johnson

F Gore

M Jones-Drew

Newcomers (or returning):

S Alexander

L Maroney

J Addai

C Portis

K Jones

 
IN....

LaDainian Tomlinson

Larry Johnson

Steven Jackson

Willie Parker

Brian Westbrook

OUT....

Frank Gore

Tiki Barber

Maurice Jones-Drew

Rudi Johnson

Ladell Betts

NEW Top 10 RBs...

Alexander

Maroney

Addai

Bush

Henry

 
LaDainian Tomlinson

Larry Johnson

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Willie Parker

Brian Westbrook will be #11-15 (ppg)

Tiki Barber

Maurice Jones-Drew will be #11-15 (ppg)

Rudi Johnson will be #11 -15 (ppg)

Ladell Betts

Add in

Addai

Alexander

Maroney

Bush

... I dont know the 5th. Could be several. Brown, Benson, Portis, Henry, more.

 
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People like to make a big deal out of this but there are reasons why these things happen. Most notably, players that were not healthy in 2006 and were Top 10 candidates should be healthy in 2007 (Portis, Alexander, etc.). And guys that were healthy in 2006 may get nicked up in 2007 (could be anyone on the list last year).

Also, historically guys that get the ball way more than others have been more likely to rank in the Top 10 than not (say 350 touches). This is not to say that

So the candidates for the 2007 Top 10 list will be guys that get the ball a lot and stay healthy. I'm interested to hear theories on projected health and injuries should anyone have them . . .

 
The actual trunover rate for the top 10 in a ppr leage for the past 15 years in 50% dead on.

If u want to expand that even further, the turnover rate for the top 20 rb's in a ppr is approx 40%.

There is a bit of a spike a couple years re: top 20 rbs which skews it a bit, so I like to use a 35% turn in the top 20 as a more accurate gage.

Falling out of top 10 this year:

Barber (retirement)

Parker (reduced workload perhaps)

Drew (isnt going to get 15 td mark again)

Betts (unless Portis goes down again, will not get the worklaod needed to achieve top 10)

?????? (this is the tough call. Which one of them gets inj or has poor performance issues???)

Repeating:

Tomlinson (stud + system, cant argue that)

Jackson (recpts + carries = top 3 as long as he doesnt miss time due to inj)

L. Johnson (talk of 60 recpt level from Edwards would put him here automatically even if his td levels drop)

Bush (you cant argue w/80 recpts and his carries, ypc, and tds all have room to grow)

Questionalbe repeaters:

Westbrook (I love his production but Ly was the 1st year inj free to date.......tough decision, but I wouldnt drop him in rankings over this issue

Gore (will loss of Turner have a large impact on his numbers?)

Making a run for top 10:

Maroney (if no shouldr inj, then he would be a lock)

Mcgahee ( will need to improve recpt totals but everything is there for him to excel)

Henry (Denver Rb history , nuff said)

James (will need to improve his ypc and get at least 40 recpts, this is definitely attainable)

Wont happen:

Alexander (recpt levels dropping every year coupled w/age and coming off inj....no thanks)

Rudi Johnson (does not get enough recpts to make top 10 in a ppr format...)

Portis ( too much betts cutting into production = wont happen unless he spikes high in td's)

This leaves us w/ Parker, Drew on the fringe in the 11-14 range.

There are a few others that look to rise that are not mentioned here. Obviously things will be clearer

as the season approaches.

Grim

 
My bad Addai was on my rsie list and I forot to verify he was in when I posted, good catch.

TheGrimReaper said:
The actual trunover rate for the top 10 in a ppr leage for the past 15 years in 50% dead on.If u want to expand that even further, the turnover rate for the top 20 rb's in a ppr is approx 40%.There is a bit of a spike a couple years re: top 20 rbs which skews it a bit, so I like to use a 35% turn in the top 20 as a more accurate gage.Falling out of top 10 this year:Barber (retirement)Parker (reduced workload perhaps)Drew (isnt going to get 15 td mark again)Betts (unless Portis goes down again, will not get the worklaod needed to achieve top 10)?????? (this is the tough call. Which one of them gets inj or has poor performance issues???)Repeating:Tomlinson (stud + system, cant argue that)Jackson (recpts + carries = top 3 as long as he doesnt miss time due to inj)L. Johnson (talk of 60 recpt level from Edwards would put him here automatically even if his td levels drop)Bush (you cant argue w/80 recpts and his carries, ypc, and tds all have room to grow)Questionalbe repeaters:Westbrook (I love his production but Ly was the 1st year inj free to date.......tough decision, but I wouldnt drop him in rankings over this issueGore (will loss of Turner have a large impact on his numbers?)Making a run for top 10:Maroney (if no shouldr inj, then he would be a lock)Mcgahee ( will need to improve recpt totals but everything is there for him to excel)Henry (Denver Rb history , nuff said)James (will need to improve his ypc and get at least 40 recpts, this is definitely attainable)Wont happen:Alexander (recpt levels dropping every year coupled w/age and coming off inj....no thanks)Rudi Johnson (does not get enough recpts to make top 10 in a ppr format...)Portis ( too much betts cutting into production = wont happen unless he spikes high in td's)This leaves us w/ Parker, Drew on the fringe in the 11-14 range.There are a few others that look to rise that are not mentioned here. Obviously things will be cleareras the season approaches.Grim
Click to expand...
 
David Yudkin said:
People like to make a big deal out of this but there are reasons why these things happen. Most notably, players that were not healthy in 2006 and were Top 10 candidates should be healthy in 2007 (Portis, Alexander, etc.). And guys that were healthy in 2006 may get nicked up in 2007 (could be anyone on the list last year).

Also, historically guys that get the ball way more than others have been more likely to rank in the Top 10 than not (say 350 touches). This is not to say that

So the candidates for the 2007 Top 10 list will be guys that get the ball a lot and stay healthy. I'm interested to hear theories on projected health and injuries should anyone have them . . .
Click to expand...
JayMan said:
I have looked at the last 10 years ('97-'06) and found out that 46% of Top10 RBs in year N-1 stay there in year N... Obvisouly, there are many different scenarios causing this (rookies coming in, change of teams, change of role, injuries, etc.) and we can't expect history to repeat itself... but to ignore history altogether is usually a good plan to fail...

(I know it's nothing scientific... And I certainly know there are no proof saying that it will be 5... might be 10, might be 6, might be 0... just play along) :nerd:
Click to expand...
Now... don't play stuck up David :rolleyes: ... we all know there is nothing scientific about this and no interesting theories can back this up (or else - I'm sure a FBG expert would have written up about it a long time ago and we wouldn't have so much fun playing FF)... this is just quick fun... a bit like the 'bold predictions' we see in any FF mag - if someone nails it, they're sure proud of having said it - but wouldn't want anyone looking at it at the end of the year...
 
still in the top 10:

LaDainian Tomlinson - duh

Larry Johnson - too good to deny

Rudi Johnson 1300yd 12td $$$$

Willie Parker - the guy's a beast, Google image him

Steven Jackson

(re)Joining the top10 in 2007

Alexander - 13-16TDs 1100+ yards

Edge - coaching++

Henry

Addai - Edge 2.0 production

Reggie Bush - the TD numbers will go up, and lots of all-purpose yardage to boot

out:

Frank Gore -- still a top 15 RB

Brian Westbrook -- call it a hunch

Maurice Jones-Drew -- TDs drop off

Ladell Betts -- Portis

 
still in:

SJax

LT2

LJ

Parker

Gore

Westy-

New:

Henry

Addai

SA

Maroney-

my 11-15 would have MJD, Bush, Rudi, *MB3, Portis

*MJD has potential to be top 10 if Taylor goes down early

Portis needs a Betts injury to get out of the 10-15 area (no jinx to betts owners :jawdrop: )

MB3 is a tough one..JJones may not be a cowboy much longer. Meanwhile he is still there and will produce and will need to be featured to begin rising his stock. I think they both put up pretty good #'s this year with MB3 fairing slightly better

Bush is in top 10 if Duece is gone..while Duece is there Im thinking 10-13 for Bush and 15-20 for Duece.

Bush

 
Stay:

LT

SJax

Gore

Westbrook

Rudi (he'll go 4 in a row)

MJD

Coming in:

Addai

Portis

Edge

Henry

That's right. I have LJ out of the top 10. This is just a hunch that the increased workload and the decrease in quality linemen in the last 2 years will have LJ missing some time. I would think his per game stats would be top 10 but I think he spends a few games on the sideline in street clothes.

 
To answer the hypothetical question (5 coming, 5 going):

We know Tiki is out so that's one. I don;t suspect MJD will get as many TD or a full workload so IMO he's #2. I don't see Betts getting anywhere close to the workload needed to make it, so that's #3.

While I can't predict Westbrook will get hurt, he has yet to play in all 16 games in a season, he scored more than in other seasons, and had a much higher ypc than in his last two seasons. Add that all together and it's not hard to see him dropping some, so call him #4.

As for the last guy, take your pick of the remaining 6 players (LT, LJ, S-Jax, Gore, Parker, and Rudi) because that will likely be the guy that gets hurt (if not more than one guy). While I like Parker, it's not inconceivably that the Steelers new aerial game plan will limit his touches and maybe take away a few scoring chances. Add in a high ankle sprain that keeps him out a few weeks and he could be #5.

As for replacements, Alexander seems like a good choice if he gets the same workload as in prior years. I also think Addai has the best shot of anyone to make it and almost did last year. I think Henry (DEN) has an excellent shot, so that makes three. In my rankings I don't have anyone else, but the closest may be Benson and Maroney (no longer truly splitting carries), Portis (should be healthier), and Edge (still will get the ball a ton).

 
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IN:

LaDainian Tomlinson

Steven Jackson

Willie Parker

Brian Westbrook

Maurice Jones-Drew

OUT:

Larry Johnson

Frank Gore

Tiki Barber

Rudi Johnson

Ladell Betts

 
IN:

LT

Westbrook

SJax

LJ

New:

Addai

Adrian Peterson

Benson

Kevin Jones

Travis Henry

Ahman Green

 
shadyridr said:
Still top 10:Tomlinson, Jackson, Gore, LJohnson, RJohnsonOut:Parker, Westbrook, Barber, Jones-Drew, Betts (WoW I had no clue he was top 10)In:Alexander, Addai, McGahee, James, Benson
Click to expand...
you were on a roll, until you included Benson. and maybe Gore.neither will finish in the top 10.I'd put Travis Henry and Maroney ahead of BOTH Gore and Benson.
 
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Results, so far, Top10 finishes:

Code: 
LaDainian Tomlinson-18Steven Jackson------18Joseph Addai--------17Larry Johnson-------15Frank Gore----------13Shaun Alexander-----13Travis Henry--------13Laurence Maroney----11Brian Westbrook-----10Willie Parker--------8Rudi Johnson---------7Edgerrin James-------7Willis McGahee-------6Clinton Portis-------6Maurice Jones-Drew---4Reggie Bush----------4Cedric Benson--------3Kevin Jones----------2Adrian Peterson------1Ahman Green----------1
 
JayMan said:
Results, so far, Top10 finishes:

Code: 
LaDainian Tomlinson-18Steven Jackson------18Joseph Addai--------17Larry Johnson-------15Frank Gore----------13Shaun Alexander-----13Travis Henry--------13Laurence Maroney----11Brian Westbrook-----10Willie Parker--------8Rudi Johnson---------7Edgerrin James-------7Willis McGahee-------6Clinton Portis-------6Maurice Jones-Drew---4Reggie Bush----------4Cedric Benson--------3Kevin Jones----------2Adrian Peterson------1Ahman Green----------1
Click to expand...
Switch Henry and Parker, and that is pretty damn close to my current RB list.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
LaDainian Tomlinson

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Larry Johnson

Shaun Alexander

Travis Henry

Laurence Maroney

Thomas Jones

Willie Parker

Brian Westbrook

Just missed:

Edgerrin James

Rudi Johnson

Reggie Bush should be top 10 in PPR. He has the talent to be top 10 even in non-PPR leagues.

 
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