Shutout
Footballguy
Ok, so this would have to be a guy you can get in a dynasty, keeper, or in some format that allows you to get him before the NFL's business season begins and players start moving, but I am thinking that DeAngelo Williams might be one of the best trade targets in the league next year.
Coming off a shortened season due to an injury that did not require surgery and that he was able to resume running on just two weeks after the injury, he is safe to be healthy (and fresh) by next year. He also qualifies as a good candidate that frustrated his owner this year and is out of the immediate thoughts of other owners because he was lost so early in the season. Granted, he went into last season with an ADP around 10, so he still has some value. But he is also going into his 28 year-old season and is well-remembered to have been used A LOT in college. So, he comes across as a guy that has the perception of a guy that is no spring chicken and has a lot of miles on him and, especially in dynasties, 28 is where a lot of owners start shopping their RBs as they try to unload them before they hit the wall, usually to teams that will overpay for a name or feel like a short term stud is the answer to get their team over the hump. In this case however, the "wall" may be a little farther into the distance than normal than his numbers might suggest.
But when you look at it a bit deeper, you may like his numbers quite a bit more. In the past five seasons in the NFL, he has a very-light carries workload number of 841. At and average of less than 175 per year, its a number that suggests he isn't worn down, will have some fresh legs, and (what I like the most) suggest that his career YPC is legit. That number; 5.0 overall and closer to 5.2 if you discount his sparingly used touches from his rookie year. 5.0 YPC is a REALLY nice number. Especially on a team where everyone knew you were going to be running, on a team that wasn't always the best team or featured a dominant o-line. In general, surrounded by average situations, DWIL has stood out with good numbers and has not been run into the ground. And, he catches the ball well.
So, then you look at WHERE he may be playing next year as this is a FA year for DWIL.
Some of his options:
-Carolina-If tagged or resigned with Carolina, a lot is still known on him. It could be muddied by a new coach and new philosophy, but its going to be difficult to wholesale change this team and morph it into something else next year. Also, one of the things that has really crippled Carolina in recent years is the money spent to players that were tagged and restructred (Peppers, etc). Looking in on them now, it really appears that they have had enough of that and with Stewart and Goodson both appearing to be capable, it seems likely that DWIL walks.
-Dolphins, Saints, Redskins, Seahawks- Any of these teams could be possible suitors. I strike the Seahawks off the list almost immediately, however, as that team really hasn't found themself yet. With all their problems and the inability to play well this season, I don't think they appeal to DWIL and I don't think the Seahawks themselves know enough about their team yet to know whether this is a direction they want to go in (or spend big money on). The other three teams are more similar and its conceivable that any of them could bring him on. None of the locations would be terrible. All of them would be somewhat situaitonal. Success would be likely in any location, with higher ceilings in Miami or New Orleans.
Jets-This is a mystery date to the dance but it just MIGHT have some merit should LT move on and the team wants to maintain the type of RB combo they have now. Shonn Greene hasn't really stepped out of the shadow and established himself. I don't think DWIL ends up there but the Jets are known to go after players if they think it will work.
Colts-This is the spot I think DWIL, if he is allowed to pursue FA, will land. The Colts have had a ton of running issues this year that DWIL could be almost ideal to fix. He can run, he can block, he's been known to be able to carry a heavier workload, he can catch, and its is burning into the Colts these days that the running game simply MUST be legitimate in order for the Colts to be a successful team. Addai can be moved and Brown hasn't shown enough to give the Colts confidence should Addai leave.
So, given the likely scenarios and the lottery type jackpot should he land in Indy next year, I like DWIL as a guy to go after in the offseason before the NFL free agency period opens.
Coming off a shortened season due to an injury that did not require surgery and that he was able to resume running on just two weeks after the injury, he is safe to be healthy (and fresh) by next year. He also qualifies as a good candidate that frustrated his owner this year and is out of the immediate thoughts of other owners because he was lost so early in the season. Granted, he went into last season with an ADP around 10, so he still has some value. But he is also going into his 28 year-old season and is well-remembered to have been used A LOT in college. So, he comes across as a guy that has the perception of a guy that is no spring chicken and has a lot of miles on him and, especially in dynasties, 28 is where a lot of owners start shopping their RBs as they try to unload them before they hit the wall, usually to teams that will overpay for a name or feel like a short term stud is the answer to get their team over the hump. In this case however, the "wall" may be a little farther into the distance than normal than his numbers might suggest.
But when you look at it a bit deeper, you may like his numbers quite a bit more. In the past five seasons in the NFL, he has a very-light carries workload number of 841. At and average of less than 175 per year, its a number that suggests he isn't worn down, will have some fresh legs, and (what I like the most) suggest that his career YPC is legit. That number; 5.0 overall and closer to 5.2 if you discount his sparingly used touches from his rookie year. 5.0 YPC is a REALLY nice number. Especially on a team where everyone knew you were going to be running, on a team that wasn't always the best team or featured a dominant o-line. In general, surrounded by average situations, DWIL has stood out with good numbers and has not been run into the ground. And, he catches the ball well.
So, then you look at WHERE he may be playing next year as this is a FA year for DWIL.
Some of his options:
-Carolina-If tagged or resigned with Carolina, a lot is still known on him. It could be muddied by a new coach and new philosophy, but its going to be difficult to wholesale change this team and morph it into something else next year. Also, one of the things that has really crippled Carolina in recent years is the money spent to players that were tagged and restructred (Peppers, etc). Looking in on them now, it really appears that they have had enough of that and with Stewart and Goodson both appearing to be capable, it seems likely that DWIL walks.
-Dolphins, Saints, Redskins, Seahawks- Any of these teams could be possible suitors. I strike the Seahawks off the list almost immediately, however, as that team really hasn't found themself yet. With all their problems and the inability to play well this season, I don't think they appeal to DWIL and I don't think the Seahawks themselves know enough about their team yet to know whether this is a direction they want to go in (or spend big money on). The other three teams are more similar and its conceivable that any of them could bring him on. None of the locations would be terrible. All of them would be somewhat situaitonal. Success would be likely in any location, with higher ceilings in Miami or New Orleans.
Jets-This is a mystery date to the dance but it just MIGHT have some merit should LT move on and the team wants to maintain the type of RB combo they have now. Shonn Greene hasn't really stepped out of the shadow and established himself. I don't think DWIL ends up there but the Jets are known to go after players if they think it will work.
Colts-This is the spot I think DWIL, if he is allowed to pursue FA, will land. The Colts have had a ton of running issues this year that DWIL could be almost ideal to fix. He can run, he can block, he's been known to be able to carry a heavier workload, he can catch, and its is burning into the Colts these days that the running game simply MUST be legitimate in order for the Colts to be a successful team. Addai can be moved and Brown hasn't shown enough to give the Colts confidence should Addai leave.
So, given the likely scenarios and the lottery type jackpot should he land in Indy next year, I like DWIL as a guy to go after in the offseason before the NFL free agency period opens.
Nice write up, I was just pondering this the other day.
Nice write up, I was just pondering this the other day.
