Trading 2 1st Round Picks - a study (1 Viewer)

[The Dude]

In the 04-05 version I see maybe 5 (SD, AZ, Pitt, Rams, and maybe Cleveland).

Thats 7 pairings out of 47 possibles - less than a 15% chance.

If you consider at least 1 pick has to be at the 18 spot or later, that eliminates SD, AZ, Cle from comparable 04-05. So there are Pitt & Rams for 04-05 and SD and GB from 05-06 - 4 out of 47 possibles - less than a 10% chance.

 

[JKL]

This is using the draft results from 1980-1999, so we have a decade to evaluate the most recent draft picks. I used picks 10-20 in the first round of every draft for that period. This probably overestimates slightly what Denver is getting for the 18th overall pick plus an undetermined pick in the first round next year.

So what I did was just add up seasons as starter + pro bowls made + first team all pro seasons to get a total number. So a season in which a player started would be worth 1, made a pro bowl worth 2, and made 1st team all pro worth 3. Then I just sorted to find what the percentages were. For example, a first round pick who scored a "10" would have started 10 seasons, or 8 with 2 pro bowls. I'm not saying its perfect, but it should give us a decent view of the chances of getting a certain type of player. I also put some names on there so you could see what type of player fell in that range.

0.27 2 or fewer Reidel Anthony, Cade McNown, Tony Smith0.13 3 to 4 Kevin Dyson, Napolean Kaufman, Tony Eason0.13 5 to 6 Dwayne Rudd, Kenny Holmes, Ellis Johnson0.12 7 to 8 Leon Searcy, Booger McFarland, Sean Dawkins0.15 9 to 12 Jevon Kearse, Eddie Kennison, Hugh Douglas, John Tait0.14 13 to 16 Aaron Glenn, Eddie George, Jim Kelly0.06 17 or more Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, Steve AtwaterSo, about 6% were slam dunk HOF types, and another 14% were HOF consideration guys or long time starters, and 15% as pretty good long term starters. About 40% you could easily classify as busts, and another 25% as guys who could start and maybe have a good year or two.

 

[thecardiackid]

OK, he threw some picks trying to force the ball in games where he HAD to. I'm not sure why or how O line holding, and fumbles by Marshall & Selvin killing drives is helping your arguement - if there is one.In the last 4 games the D gave up 17 (not 10), 30, 30, and a fiddy burger. The one game that was respectable (i.e. 17 - Denver surprisingly won).

if you didn't get it the first time through, I'm not sure I can make it any simpler for you.if you only skimmed it, go back and read it.

What does cherry picking some turnovers in games where DEN was behind (and forced to throw a lot more than even they would have liked) accomplish? In 09 Cutler was 384/616 4525 yds 25 tds 18int 57/200 2 tds - top 5 in the NFL in his 2nd season (playing FT). 3rd in yds and 2nd in attempts. Comparable stats to Brees (minus a few TDs) who played in a similar situation - where the offense was solid and the D was below average - and they also missed the playoffs. I don't see many threads bashing Brees here. You seem offended by Cutler's (and Cook's) tactics used to get out of Denver, and IMO by taking it personally, you're missing or neglecting the point that he's a young, emerging, unique talent at QB. Still a work in progress, and has a lot to prove - on the field, but he's one of the very few that has the tools/talent to get there. THAT's why CHI is making the bet, along w/ the several other teams who tried and were in the mix to attain his services. I agree he could have probably played better over that span of games, but the same could be said for the D and the rest of the team. No one is giving him a pass to the HOF yet. I'd bet a lot of good QBs lose games when thier D is coughing up 30-50 points. It's tough to win when you're on the sideline.Did Steve Young look like a future HOF'er in Tampa, before he was traded to SF?

 

[Adebisi]

In 09 Cutler was 384/616 4525 yds 25 tds 18int 57/200 2 tds - top 5 in the NFL in his 2nd season (playing FT). 3rd in yds and 2nd in attempts. Comparable stats to Brees (minus a few TDs) who played in a similar situation - where the offense was solid and the D was below average - and they also missed the playoffs. I don't see many threads bashing Brees here.

Yards are going to come almost by default when a QB attempts so many passes. Finishing 2nd in attempts is somewhat irrelevant, in my opinion (he finished 10th in yards per pass attempt, which stands to reason that he'd finish 10th in the league in yards if every QB attempted the same number of passes). More telling to me is that despite finishing 2nd in attempts, he only finished 7th in TD passes, but he finished 2nd in passes intercepted. He wasn't even in the top 10 for passer rating, completion percentage, or adjusted yards per pass attempt.This all stands to reason that Cutler's high totals in yards and TDs had more to do with the sheer volume of pass attempts than his skill in passing the ball.To be fair, credit is certainly due for having the lowest sack percentage in the league, which could suggest that may have often thrown the ball away rather than taken the sack, which certainly should not be held against him. I did not watch enough Broncos games last season to know if this would have a relevant effect on his numbers, but I can't imagine that it had a drastic effect.As far as Cutler being "Top 5 in the NFL in his second season," I don't know if you were pointing to any specific number or just to his play in general, but I assure you that there were absolutely 5 QBs in the NFL who played better than Cutler last year.I am not saying that Cutler is not a fine young QB with a bright future ahead of him. Just that as of the end of 2008, he had not quite arrived yet.

 

[3nOut]

More importantly, these are JERRY ANGELO'S first round draft picks sinc the joined the Bears in 2001.

Year Player		 Pos. School		 Pick # 2008 Chris Williams OT   Vanderbilt	 14 2007 Greg Olsen	 TE   Miami		  31 2006 No Pick 2005 Cedric Benson  RB   Texas		  4 2004 Tommie Harris  DT   Oklahoma	   14 2003 Michael Haynes DE   Penn State	 14 	 Rex Grossman   QB   Florida		22 2002 Marc Colombo   OT   Boston College 29 2001 David Terrell  WR   Michigan	   8

ANY two consecutive first round picks you guys like?

 

[-baller]

What does cherry picking some turnovers in games where DEN was behind (and forced to throw a lot more than even they would have liked) accomplish? You seem offended by Cutler's (and Cook's) tactics used to get out of Denver, and IMO by taking it personally, you're missing or neglecting the point that he's a young, emerging, unique talent at QB. I agree he could have probably played better over that span of games, but the same could be said for the D and the rest of the team. No one is giving him a pass to the HOF yet. I'd bet a lot of good QBs lose games when thier D is coughing up 30-50 points. It's tough to win when you're on the sideline.

at this point it seems like you're pretty much having a conversation w/yourself, so I'll leave you to it.although, I'll admit I'm still kind of curious how you continue to characterize a 1st quarter int as denver falling behind and forcing him to make bad throws, but as I mentioned, that's between you and you, I guess.

 

[Skino]

Good work, The Dude. Interesting discussion on this one. What I'd be interested in seeing is how teams who had two first rounders faired as I think it brings a lot more flexibilty to the table. The percentage of success might be higher. I'm sure the sample set is much much smaller though.

 

[twistd]

And Orton.

And a 3rd.

It is not a third. People keep saying that. They swap a third for a fifth. It is not a third.

 

[twistd]

Does anybody see one?

They've all been mentioned, but no way do I trade the Packers, Chargers, or Steelers picks for Jay Cutler.

Also, I wonder if 05/06 were typical years as far as class talent goes.

I would trade the Steelers picks, but probably not the Chargers or the Packers picks. However I think he makes a really good point. Here is another assessment of this trade, valuewise:http://nflblogs.profootballweekly.com/Arou...ars_traded.html

 

[The Man With No Name]

Not sure if any or all of these were mentioned yet, but HERE is an article that lists some trades with similar compensation.

 

[scavenger]

Excellent work/analysis.

Even if 3-4 teams wouldn't trade their picks (in hindsight); it still shows that approximately 22 teams would have been better off with the TALENTED veteran player (Cutler), provided that Cutler continues to perform at the high level.

That is 88% of the time that it turns out better than keeping the picks ! Also with Jerry's recent history of 1st round picks, Bear management has to be pleased with the trade for Cutler IMHO.

 

[stevegamer]

Does anybody see one?

They've all been mentioned, but no way do I trade the Packers, Chargers, or Steelers picks for Jay Cutler. Also, I wonder if 05/06 were typical years as far as class talent goes.

I agree, and I might add the Eagles to the list.Basically there are two kinds of tems this deal would've made no sense for:1. Teams with good QB's. Saints/Colts/Pats don't do it, because you don't pay to downgrade a QB.2. Teams that can draft well in round 1, normally: Packers/Chargers/Steelers/Eagles from that list. As a bonus, I'm not sure Cutler is better than any of those team's QB's.However, Chicago didn't fit either of those criteria, and I like Orton a lot more than many do.

 

[twistd]

More importantly, these are JERRY ANGELO'S first round draft picks sinc the joined the Bears in 2001.

Year Player Pos. School Pick # 2008 Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt 14 2007 Greg Olsen TE Miami 31 2006 No Pick 2005 Cedric Benson RB Texas 4 2004 Tommie Harris DT Oklahoma 14 2003 Michael Haynes DE Penn State 14 Rex Grossman QB Florida 22 2002 Marc Colombo OT Boston College 29 2001 David Terrell WR Michigan 8ANY two consecutive first round picks you guys like?

To compare here are the first round draft picks from the Patriots, Giants and Steelers during that same period.Patriots

Passing Rushing Receiving

Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ

1 2008 1 10 Jerod Mayo LB NWE 2008 2008 0 0 1 16 Tennessee

2 2007 1 24 Brandon Meriweather DB NWE 2007 2008 0 0 1 32 4 2.0 Miami (FL)

3 2006 1 21 Laurence Maroney RB NWE 2006 2008 0 0 0 30 388 1673 12 26 310 1 Minnesota

4 2005 1 32 Logan Mankins G NWE 2005 2008 0 1 4 64 1 -9 0 Fresno State

5 2004 1 21 Vince Wilfork NT NWE 2004 2008 0 1 4 77 7.5 Miami (FL)

6 2004 1 32 Ben Watson TE NWE 2004 2008 0 0 3 55 1 11 0 138 1698 15 Georgia

7 2003 1 13 Ty Warren DE NWE 2003 2008 0 0 5 92 19.5 Texas A&M

8 2002 1 21 Daniel Graham TE NWE 2002 2008 0 0 5 94 176 2028 23 Colorado

9 2001 1 6 Richard Seymour DE

Giants

Passing Rushing Receiving

Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ

1 2008 1 31 Kenny Phillips DB NYG 2008 2008 0 0 0 16 1 Miami (FL)

2 2007 1 20 Aaron Ross DB NYG 2007 2008 0 0 2 30 6 1.5 Texas

3 2006 1 32 Mathias Kiwanuka DE NYG 2006 2008 0 0 2 42 2 17.0 Boston College

4 2004 1 4 Philip Rivers QB NYG 2004 2008 0 1 3 52 890 1428 10697 78 36 113 160 1 North Carolina State

5 2003 1 25 William Joseph DT NYG 2003 2008 0 0 1 63 7.0 Miami (FL)

6 2002 1 14 Jeremy Shockey TE NYG 2002 2008 1 4 7 95 1 6 0 421 4711 27 Miami (FL)

7 2001 1 22 Will Allen DB NYG 2001 2008 0 0 8 119 13 5.0 Syracuse

8 2000 1 11 Ron Dayne RB NYG 2000 2007 0 0 1 96 983 3722 28 57 340 0 Wisconsin

Steelers

Passing Rushing Receiving

Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ

1 2008 1 23 Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT 2008 2008 0 0 0 4 19 58 0 2 17 0 Illinois

2 2007 1 15 Lawrence Timmons LB PIT 2007 2008 0 0 0 32 1 5.0 Florida State

3 2006 1 25 Santonio Holmes WR PIT 2006 2008 0 0 2 44 8 39 0 156 2587 15 Ohio State

4 2005 1 30 Heath Miller TE PIT 2005 2008 0 0 4 62 168 1932 21 Virginia

5 2004 1 11 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 2004 2008 0 1 5 72 1189 1905 14974 101 69 188 615 10 1 -7 0 Miami (OH)

6 2003 1 16 Troy Polamalu DB PIT 2003 2008 2 5 5 88 17 7.0 USC

7 2002 1 30 Kendall Simmons G PIT 2002 2008 0 0 5 80 Auburn

8 2001 1 19 Casey Hampton NT PIT 2001 2008 0 4 7 113 5.5 Texas

9 2000 1 8 Plaxico Burress WR PIT 2000 2008 0 0 9 128 1 -7 0 505 7845 55 Michigan State

Out of these three the Steelers look like the team that drafted the best. But what it points out is just how bad Angelo has been. The two best players Angelo drafted appear to be Olsen and Tommie Harris, with the jury still out on Williams. Ouch, as a Bears fan that hurts. Angelo does a decent job in later rounds, but his first round batting average is pretty bad.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

This is very interesting, but doesn't this information exclude the possibility of Cutler busting out in Chicago with less talent surrounding him on offense? Obviously that's difficult to put into numbers, and odds are it's unlikely that he won't be more successful than what they have had for years, but there is a chance that they gave up picks for someone who might not work out, just as the draft picks might not work out consecutively.

I think you definately have to consider this. I think players traded for 2 first round picks rarely meet their expections and that is where I thought this thread was originally heading. Off the top of my head are:Joey Galloway (Dallas from Seattle)Keyshawn Johnson (Miami from Jets)Sean Gilbert (Carolina from Washington)Let me know if you can think of others.

Some draft day trades also come to mind, all involving San Diego:Ryan LeafEli ManningMichael Vick wasn't two first round picks, but almost (1st (5th overall) and 3rd that year, 2nd the following year, and Tim Dwight)

Which, to this day, still rings as one of the best trades ever in my opinion. Granted it's easy for us to look BACK (hindsight is always 20/20), but still...Just to move up 4 spots, Atlanta gave all that up to get Vick. At the time he was considered one of the most impressive QBs to ever enter the draft. And despite his issues (off and on the field), he was definitely impressive to watch (on TV and in real life). But SD made out quite well. They moved back to the 1.05 pick and grabbed LT. Plus the other picks, which helped loosen things up for them and really started to set the stage for their success a few years later.

and they drafted Drew Brees with the first pick of Round 2.

 

[stevegamer]

Didn't the Browns give up 2 1sts to move up & pick Quinn?

 

[The Man With No Name]

Didn't the Browns give up 2 1sts to move up & pick Quinn?

They gave a 1st and a 2nd