Trading future draft picks away to win now (1 Viewer)

[pats3in4]

If this topic has been started, please point me in the right direction and accept my apology for being redundant...

My redraft league allows the trading of future draft picks. There have been a handful of trades over the past few years in which a team that was sure to miss the playoffs started dumping their studs and boned up on picks for next year's draft. When the rule first went into effect, I think most of my title-contending leaguemates overpaid for current players (e.g. trading next year's 2nd round pick for a RB2-caliber player and a 7th round pick - the number of draft picks must always balance out in our league), but have since realized that these players don't hold as much value to their current owner since they are trying to sell them, so owners are not as quick to dump their high picks as before.

Have analyses been done to create a value chart on what's considered an acceptable trade involving future draft picks? Both for redraft and dynasty leagues? I'm curious what others think is an acceptable trade in such circumstances.

For example (these are hypothetical...these are not trade proposals in my league so this is not an attempt at circumventing the AC forum)...

1. Carson Palmer is for sale. He has a good playoff schedule in weeks 14-16. Counting on Jay Cutler to win a title is rough, so a team proposes to trade Cutler for Palmer and give the Palmer owner next year's 3rd-round pick in return for his 7th-round pick. Is this too much? What about trading a 3rd for a 6th? 3rd for a 5th? 3rd for a 4th?

2. Randy Moss is for sale. A team proposes to get Moss for some scrub WR. This owner thinks Moss will put him in the title game and thus end up with a bottom-2 pick in every odd-numbered round next year and a top-2 pick in every even-numbered round. The team that trades for Moss will switch draft picks in each even-numbered round, giving the old Moss owner a top-2 pick in every even-numbered round. If the old Moss owner ends up with a high odd-round pick because his team is not that good, then he'll have high picks in every round. The new Moss owner would end up with low picks in every round. Is this a good play?

I could come up with several scenarios, but just wanted to throw these out to help visualize the idea to those who haven't thought of this before and solicit responses.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Thats a very odd rule for redrafts... I really don't think I could trade away much in this system... plus; as the season come closer to the end... you figure those players will become cheaper.

 

[BLOX]

Considering you are starting from scratch the next year, I'd be very careful.

However, when you are close to a championship you have to do what you can to take home the trophy. So, to answer your question, there are no studies done, but you just have to go with your gut and what you know to put out the best team you can. If you are a solid team and really don't need much, stay put. If you are one or two guys away by all means take your shot. If you're a bubble team, I'd sit tight unless the offer was too good to pass up. The last thing you want to do is make your team have to battle even more than it should in 2008.

 

[Lash]

we dont allow future year draft picks for trade in our redraft

in week 12, ADP and LT have almost nil value to a team mathematically eliminated ... how could you blame them for trading both to another owner for a 3rd rd pick the next year

 

[pats3in4]

Thats a very odd rule for redrafts... I really don't think I could trade away much in this system... plus; as the season come closer to the end... you figure those players will become cheaper.

Indeed, one has to be very careful in trading away future picks in a redraft. This is why the first year we had this rule we saw guys trading away 2nd round picks like they were nothing (and none of them won the title) and have since reigned in the big spending; Lesson learned. Still, there probably is some balance between trading away a bit of your future to increase your chances of winning the prize now. The question is what is that balance? That's the real question I'm asking.The trading deadline in my league is next Wednesday so if guys are selling their players, they need to feel pretty confident they are out of the playoff running after 10 weeks (with 3 to go) and the opposite is true about potential buyers. Guys can't wait until the regular season is done, the playoff seedings are set, and then start buying studs.In my league, the non-playoff teams still play a loser bracket and the winner gets the top pick next year, so this avoids tanking. Thus owners do not have incentive to completely sell off their rosters. They may be trading their studs away for draft picks, but also might be looking to pick up at least a half-decent guy in return for the loser bracket run. This usually prevents them from selling guys dirt cheap (e.g. Randy Moss for next year's 7th round pick) at the trade deadline.

 

[pats3in4]

we dont allow future year draft picks for trade in our redraftin week 12, ADP and LT have almost nil value to a team mathematically eliminated ... how could you blame them for trading both to another owner for a 3rd rd pick the next year

This is true. Fortunately, the ADP and LT owner are in the thick of things this year so we don't have to worry about that.Also, I did leave out one important detail in my initial post regarding my league...we aren't a full redraft, but are a one-keeper league. ADP and LT aren't going anywhere even if their owners were done for the year. I left that out to avoid muddling the general question, but your good point deserved my mentioning of it.

 

[Modog814]

Personally, I don't think I would ever trade a 1st through 4th round pick in a redraft for a later round. No single player is worth it b/c no single player would guarantee me a championship this year. Plus it would put me at a huge disadvantage next year. I might consider doing an equal round trade (ie. Trading A trading Moss would recieve Team B's 2nd and 4th round picks, Team B recieves Team A's 2nd and 4th, essentially giving Team A the earlier pick in the first 4 rounds, but I'd need to be almost certain that this player would put me over the top).

Other than that I might consider give up a 5th for a 6th, a 6th for a 7th, ect. And if it went later into the rounds I might give up a 11 for 13th ect.

I'd probably stay put unless the guy I was trading for I also intended on using as my keeper.

 

[greenline]

Last year I acquired 3 extra 7th round picks dealing away Colston, Portis, and E. Manning.

This year I am currrently in 1st place and have relinquished a 2008 12th rd pick for Andre Johnson.

I wouldn't give up anything in the first half of the following year's draft for a player's services this year.

We are a one keeper league. You forfeit the round of the player you are keeping. So if I drafted Dwayne Bowe in the 13th, I can keep him in 2008 but forfeit my 13th rd pick.

 

[pats3in4]

Last year I acquired 3 extra 7th round picks dealing away Colston, Portis, and E. Manning. This year I am currrently in 1st place and have relinquished a 2008 12th rd pick for Andre Johnson. I wouldn't give up anything in the first half of the following year's draft for a player's services this year. We are a one keeper league. You forfeit the round of the player you are keeping. So if I drafted Dwayne Bowe in the 13th, I can keep him in 2008 but forfeit my 13th rd pick.

This is interesting. So the going rate for each of these players was a 7th round pick. How did that trade work out for the teams you sent them to last year? How did those 7th round picks work out for you this year? Do you remember the negotiations for each of these players? Were you originally offered 10th round picks and worked them up to 7th? Did you originally ask for 3rd round picks and eventually settle on 7th rounders?

 

[Bad Moon]

In my keep 2 league the highest pick that has ever changed hands is a 2nd rounder (equivalent of a 4th in redraft.) That only happened one time. Picks in rounds 3 to 5 are more common. Sometimes lower picks will move for lesser players. Usually the team receiving the higher pick throws in his pick from the last round to balance things out.

Two years in a row my team was just a disaster, out of it by the deadline. The first year I set up a “store” on our board with “prices” next to each player. All you had to do was post saying you would pay the price and throw in some scrub to balance the rosters and we had a trade. I picked up several picks out of that one, which irritated a few of the owners who were unable to get anything done because everyone was buying from me! (Had some really good players but bad luck with early injuries, tough schedule, yada yada yada). The next year they voted in a rule where you could only trade 1 draft pick per season.

Unfortunately I squandered the extra picks and my team was out of it again so I set up a 5-day “auction” on our board. You posted what pick you were willing to give up and at the end of the auction the highest bidder got to take the player of his choice (except my 2 keepers.) Other teams were making deals while the auction was running. Lots of fun but of course a few of the owners got ticked off and voted to move the trade deadline from Week 12 to Week 10 the next season. Bunch of crybabies anyway!

Bottom line for me is if I am selling I want at least the equivalent of a 7th rounder the next year, and if I am buying I will have a hard time giving up any more than a 4th.

 

[greenline]

Last year I acquired 3 extra 7th round picks dealing away Colston, Portis, and E. Manning. This year I am currrently in 1st place and have relinquished a 2008 12th rd pick for Andre Johnson. I wouldn't give up anything in the first half of the following year's draft for a player's services this year. We are a one keeper league. You forfeit the round of the player you are keeping. So if I drafted Dwayne Bowe in the 13th, I can keep him in 2008 but forfeit my 13th rd pick.

This is interesting. So the going rate for each of these players was a 7th round pick. How did that trade work out for the teams you sent them to last year? How did those 7th round picks work out for you this year? Do you remember the negotiations for each of these players? Were you originally offered 10th round picks and worked them up to 7th? Did you originally ask for 3rd round picks and eventually settle on 7th rounders?

Basically, I hit things on a run. 5 or 6 guys from our league were hanging out for a poker weekend and the guy in first offered me a 10th for Colston and and just said "yeah, right." I knew he had no TE to speak of and Colston qualified there last year so I planned on getting a 9th from him. I knew he was going to finish in the Top 3. In our league, you get to select your draft position in the following year's draft based on how you finish the year you are in. Ex: If you finish in 1st in 2007, you get first dibs at your draft slot for 2008. You can have any pick 1-10. The guy who finished 2nd in 2007, gets the next choice of where he wants to pick in 2008. so on and so forth...So anyway, he offered me a 10th. I knew he was going to have a high draft slot in 2008, so that meant in every EVEN round his pick in that round was at the bottom. So I wanted an ODD round pick because the difference between his 9th rd pick and his 10th rd pick is about 20 spots. I didn't want the 10th, then he offered a 7th. I hesitated for about a half hour and tried to re-direct the conversation to other stuff. Then when we both had a minute outside the group, I accepted the trade and did my best to keep from showing too much interest in that high of a pick. The trade was announced. Shortly after, two other guys individually felt compelled I guess to trade away their 7th's for Eli manning and Clinton Portis respectively. This is 2QB league so QBs are at a premium. At the 2007 draft, I basically didn't draft in the 16, 15th, or 14th rd as i had three extra picks in the 7th. My 7th round was: NE Def, Winslow Jr., D. Branch, and S. Holmes

 

[Sweet Love]

I just "sold" Derick Mason in my 12 team, 3 keeper league for a fourth round pick. Basically, since each team is required to keep 3 players, it equals out to about a 7th round pick. I think it was a good deal for both parties. He has a WR now that is his #2 and I have the pick for next year. No one cried foul, but I think people forget in small keeper leagues that a 4th round pick is not really a true 4th rounder...for example, I grabbed Jerricho Cotchery in the 4th round (equivalent to a 7th), so my trading partner is not giving away the farm to win now either...and hopefully next year I can pick up another good player in that round.

 

[kbleck]

This is a good topic to discuss because we are seeing this as well in my league that i commish.

2 person keeper league

2 teams are out of it and are trading off players for future draft picks

B. Edwards - 3rd

Galloway - 7th

Holt - 4th

etc.

The question i have is at what point does this ruin the intgrity of the league. I mean teams that give up future draft picks to snake decent players from the crappy teams this year reduces the competion for the final games.

Those teams that have matchups against the crappy teams are now even more likely to get a win than they would if those players werent traded. So that could affect other teams that might of got into the playoffs if the crappy team pulled off a win or two in the next few weeks.

I understand that those teams are trying to improve for next year, but what if the team that gave all his draft picks away decides not to return to the league after winning it? What am I going to do with a team with marginal keepers and no 3rd, 5th, 7th pick next year. I dont know if I would take a team like that coming into a league.

I dont know of a good solution other than stopping future round draft pick trades until after the season is over.

Although i dont really like restricting the league like that.

Anyone have a good idea?

 

[greenline]

This is a good topic to discuss because we are seeing this as well in my league that i commish.2 person keeper league2 teams are out of it and are trading off players for future draft picksB. Edwards - 3rdGalloway - 7thHolt - 4thetc.The question i have is at what point does this ruin the intgrity of the league. I mean teams that give up future draft picks to snake decent players from the crappy teams this year reduces the competion for the final games.Those teams that have matchups against the crappy teams are now even more likely to get a win than they would if those players werent traded. So that could affect other teams that might of got into the playoffs if the crappy team pulled off a win or two in the next few weeks.I understand that those teams are trying to improve for next year, but what if the team that gave all his draft picks away decides not to return to the league after winning it? What am I going to do with a team with marginal keepers and no 3rd, 5th, 7th pick next year. I dont know if I would take a team like that coming into a league.I dont know of a good solution other than stopping future round draft pick trades until after the season is over.Although i dont really like restricting the league like that.Anyone have a good idea?

We are a points league so it doesn't really impact in like it would in H2H. In my H2H league, we don't allow trading of picks.

 

[pats3in4]

This is a good topic to discuss because we are seeing this as well in my league that i commish.2 person keeper league2 teams are out of it and are trading off players for future draft picksB. Edwards - 3rdGalloway - 7thHolt - 4thetc.The question i have is at what point does this ruin the intgrity of the league. I mean teams that give up future draft picks to snake decent players from the crappy teams this year reduces the competion for the final games.Those teams that have matchups against the crappy teams are now even more likely to get a win than they would if those players werent traded. So that could affect other teams that might of got into the playoffs if the crappy team pulled off a win or two in the next few weeks.I understand that those teams are trying to improve for next year, but what if the team that gave all his draft picks away decides not to return to the league after winning it? What am I going to do with a team with marginal keepers and no 3rd, 5th, 7th pick next year. I dont know if I would take a team like that coming into a league.I dont know of a good solution other than stopping future round draft pick trades until after the season is over.Although i dont really like restricting the league like that.Anyone have a good idea?

You bring up two good issues...integrity of the league and what if the guy giving away his picks bails next year. I think for the 2nd issue, whenever someone trades a pick in a future year, they must pay their entry fee for the year(s) in question (just in case someone makes a trade for picks beyond 2008...you never know) or the trade is voided before the next game. Teams that make such trades have until the roster lock deadline that week to pay up for the draft pick years or the commish undoes the trade.As for the integrity of the league, you would hope these things work themselves out. In my league, the first year we had this rule there was one guy who had a firesale, but was still smart enough to gather up a ton of high-round (2nd and 3rd) picks. We all complained that he would be a juggernaut the following year, but it turns out that didn't happen (injuries are a beach). The guys who traded their high picks away ended up missing those picks so after a year of learning the hard way, owners started valuing their picks better. Sometimes growing pains are good for a league with a new rule.