Travdogg's draft grades (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

Broncos did just fine with what limited draft capital they had. Certainly not a D-.

They even got one more player than the picks they had, trading down and adding a former 3rd round TE from the Saints.

PFF had them at B+.

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

30. Minnesota Vikings D-
Jordan Addison, ideal fit as a #2 opposite Jefferson, but was that their biggest need?
DeWayne McBride is a guy I think can be the lesser half of a RBBC. He'd be ok splitting with Mattison if they deal Cook, which seems unlikely now.

I am very happy that the Vikings still have all their 2024 draft picks.

Probably more fair for full context to include Hockenson as the 2nd round pick, and give C-. JMHO.

That goes against the spirit of draft grading, I think. I mean, Hockenson is already on the team, so he's not really improving them from last year. The 49ers probably wouldn't be last if I were giving them credit for CMC.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

 

[travdogg]

The Athletic 1-32 ranking of every NFL team's draft

Not too different than how I saw it.

Only 2 major differences were:

Chicago Bears (I don't see Roshon Johnson as anything special and a likely #2/#3 RB, and I don't like either DT they took)

LA Chargers (I've been higher on Quentin Johnston than most throughout the process, and I really like Tuli Tuipolotu)

Other than that, its mostly in the same ballpark.

 

[travdogg]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

I get what you are saying about getting rookie contracts at value positions, but they didn't really have needs at those positions (could argue they didn't at RB, but I think they had already turned the page on Swift) other than maybe WR, if they were worried about Jameson Williams which this draft tells me they aren't. They have the best OL west of Philly, and a super deep EDGE group. CB maybe, but its likely either Branch or CJGJ plays slot CB. They clearly didn't want Jalen Carter, which I can respect, I think Branch and to a lesser extent Hooker are what really elevates this draft for me.

I do wonder if they would have taken Levis over LaPorta if he'd fallen 1 more pick to 34?

Its not the draft I would have done, but it didn't fall how I thought it would have. As a thought exercise, say they attack the same positions but in a more positional value-based order do you feel better about:
12-Calijah Kancey
18-Will Levis
34-Sam LaPorta
45-Drew Sanders
68-Ja'Ayir Brown
96-Roschon Johnson

 

[BobbyLayne]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

I get what you are saying about getting rookie contracts at value positions, but they didn't really have needs at those positions (could argue they didn't at RB, but I think they had already turned the page on Swift) other than maybe WR, if they were worried about Jameson Williams which this draft tells me they aren't. They have the best OL west of Philly, and a super deep EDGE group. CB maybe, but its likely either Branch or CJGJ plays slot CB. They clearly didn't want Jalen Carter, which I can respect, I think Branch and to a lesser extent Hooker are what really elevates this draft for me.

I do wonder if they would have taken Levis over LaPorta if he'd fallen 1 more pick to 34?

Its not the draft I would have done, but it didn't fall how I thought it would have. As a thought exercise, say they attack the same positions but in a more positional value-based order do you feel better about:
12-Calijah Kancey
18-Will Levis
34-Sam LaPorta
45-Drew Sanders
68-Ja'Ayir Brown
96-Roschon Johnson

They brought in some solid mercenaries but still don't have a true CB1. Sutton is the only CB signed for next year, so it's back to another hired gun or using your 1st rounder in 2024.

Howie never stops drafting DL. Jordan Davis barely saw the field last year. Hargrave leaves, they add Carter and Nolan Smith. But if you pay attention that's happening all over the roster. For them the draft if not for needs, it's for future proofing for when they don't want to resign guys. 49ers are the same way (most years, IDK wtf Lynch was doing this year, must have had some edibles.) You can never have too many Edge. My view is when you add to a strong positional group, you're just raising the floor of the room. That's a good thing.

They do have a nice laddered setup for the OL contracts; each of the five expires a different year. But they're a little thin at G and if they don't extend Jonah then they don't have a solution for next year on the roster. Would have loved to see a versatile guy like Avila taken in the early 2nd.

No issue with the four they took at 12, 18, 34 and 45, but I do question the impact of say Campbell over Simpson or Laporta over Kraft - could have found an equivalency 50 picks later IMO. But Holmes and Campbell are in lockstep that the film and talent are not the only factors. They want the right mix in the locker room, and the bare minimum is guys who eat, drink, sleep football and have a high football IQ. The guys they took all definitely fit the culture and play instinctually,

Just nitpicking really. I think Holmes is a good talent evaluator and while I don't agree with every decision, he's his own dog. He has a solid collaborative process and has had very few misfires to date.

 

[travdogg]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

I get what you are saying about getting rookie contracts at value positions, but they didn't really have needs at those positions (could argue they didn't at RB, but I think they had already turned the page on Swift) other than maybe WR, if they were worried about Jameson Williams which this draft tells me they aren't. They have the best OL west of Philly, and a super deep EDGE group. CB maybe, but its likely either Branch or CJGJ plays slot CB. They clearly didn't want Jalen Carter, which I can respect, I think Branch and to a lesser extent Hooker are what really elevates this draft for me.

I do wonder if they would have taken Levis over LaPorta if he'd fallen 1 more pick to 34?

Its not the draft I would have done, but it didn't fall how I thought it would have. As a thought exercise, say they attack the same positions but in a more positional value-based order do you feel better about:
12-Calijah Kancey
18-Will Levis
34-Sam LaPorta
45-Drew Sanders
68-Ja'Ayir Brown
96-Roschon Johnson

They brought in some solid mercenaries but still don't have a true CB1. Sutton is the only CB signed for next year, so it's back to another hired gun or using your 1st rounder in 2024.

Howie never stops drafting DL. Jordan Davis barely saw the field last year. Hargrave leaves, they add Carter and Nolan Smith. But if you pay attention that's happening all over the roster. For them the draft if not for needs, it's for future proofing for when they don't want to resign guys. 49ers are the same way (most years, IDK wtf Lynch was doing this year, must have had some edibles.) You can never have too many Edge. My view is when you add to a strong positional group, you're just raising the floor of the room. That's a good thing.

They do have a nice laddered setup for the OL contracts; each of the five expires a different year. But they're a little thin at G and if they don't extend Jonah then they don't have a solution for next year on the roster. Would have loved to see a versatile guy like Avila taken in the early 2nd.

No issue with the four they took at 12, 18, 34 and 45, but I do question the impact of say Campbell over Simpson or Laporta over Kraft - could have found an equivalency 50 picks later IMO. But Holmes and Campbell are in lockstep that the film and talent are not the only factors. They want the right mix in the locker room, and the bare minimum is guys who eat, drink, sleep football and have a high football IQ. The guys they took all definitely fit the culture and play instinctually,

Just nitpicking really. I think Holmes is a good talent evaluator and while I don't agree with every decision, he's his own dog. He has a solid collaborative process and has had very few misfires to date.

Thanks for the response. I agree the Lions could have likely had an even better draft, but can't argue much with what they are building, with the locker room in mind. I would also agree that Philly is becoming the gold standard.

One thing I wanted to posit, is you mentioned the 49ers future proofing drafts, and I have this thought in my head, that John Lynch is secretly a mediocre to bad GM (or at least drafter) and Kyle Shanahan being such a great HC has really masked that. In 7 years on the job John Lynch has hit on 2 1st round picks, and I'm not sure he should get any credit at all for Bosa who was a no-brainer, but I'll give him credit for Aiyuk. Beyond that he has taken the following guys in round 1:

Soloman Thomas, 3rd overall, huge bust
Reuben Foster, 31st overall, talented, but had obvious red flags at the time
Mike McGlinchey, 9th overall, ok starter
Javon Kinlaw, 14th overall, not a difference maker
Trey Lance, 3rd overall and cost 3 1sts total, has shown nothing in 2 years, and has most likely already lost his job

Ok but surely he's finding guy on day 2 then right?
2017: Akhello Witherspoon and CJ Beathard
2018: Dante Pettis and Tarvarius Moore...and Fred Warner a very important exception
2019: Jalen Hurd and Deebo Samuel...another very important exception
2021: Trey Sermon and Ambry Thomas...jury is out on Aaron Banks
2022: Drake Jackson, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Danny Gray, hardly any played, TDP looked pretty bad when he did.

Where Lynch has shined is day 3
2017: George Kittle
2019: Dre Greenlaw
2021: Talanoa Hufanga
2022: Brock Purdy

Still in 7 years, Lynch has added maybe 10 decent or better players in the draft, its just he's hit on 4 elite guys. I'd have to sit down and weigh that against other GM's who have had that level of longevity and success, but my point is, Lynch making iffy draft calls isn't all that out of character. He's probably the most boom/bust GM in the NFL.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

I get what you are saying about getting rookie contracts at value positions, but they didn't really have needs at those positions (could argue they didn't at RB, but I think they had already turned the page on Swift) other than maybe WR, if they were worried about Jameson Williams which this draft tells me they aren't. They have the best OL west of Philly, and a super deep EDGE group. CB maybe, but its likely either Branch or CJGJ plays slot CB. They clearly didn't want Jalen Carter, which I can respect, I think Branch and to a lesser extent Hooker are what really elevates this draft for me.

I do wonder if they would have taken Levis over LaPorta if he'd fallen 1 more pick to 34?

Its not the draft I would have done, but it didn't fall how I thought it would have. As a thought exercise, say they attack the same positions but in a more positional value-based order do you feel better about:
12-Calijah Kancey
18-Will Levis
34-Sam LaPorta
45-Drew Sanders
68-Ja'Ayir Brown
96-Roschon Johnson

They brought in some solid mercenaries but still don't have a true CB1. Sutton is the only CB signed for next year, so it's back to another hired gun or using your 1st rounder in 2024.

Howie never stops drafting DL. Jordan Davis barely saw the field last year. Hargrave leaves, they add Carter and Nolan Smith. But if you pay attention that's happening all over the roster. For them the draft if not for needs, it's for future proofing for when they don't want to resign guys. 49ers are the same way (most years, IDK wtf Lynch was doing this year, must have had some edibles.) You can never have too many Edge. My view is when you add to a strong positional group, you're just raising the floor of the room. That's a good thing.

They do have a nice laddered setup for the OL contracts; each of the five expires a different year. But they're a little thin at G and if they don't extend Jonah then they don't have a solution for next year on the roster. Would have loved to see a versatile guy like Avila taken in the early 2nd.

No issue with the four they took at 12, 18, 34 and 45, but I do question the impact of say Campbell over Simpson or Laporta over Kraft - could have found an equivalency 50 picks later IMO. But Holmes and Campbell are in lockstep that the film and talent are not the only factors. They want the right mix in the locker room, and the bare minimum is guys who eat, drink, sleep football and have a high football IQ. The guys they took all definitely fit the culture and play instinctually,

Just nitpicking really. I think Holmes is a good talent evaluator and while I don't agree with every decision, he's his own dog. He has a solid collaborative process and has had very few misfires to date.

Thanks for the response. I agree the Lions could have likely had an even better draft, but can't argue much with what they are building, with the locker room in mind. I would also agree that Philly is becoming the gold standard.

One thing I wanted to posit, is you mentioned the 49ers future proofing drafts, and I have this thought in my head, that John Lynch is secretly a mediocre to bad GM (or at least drafter) and Kyle Shanahan being such a great HC has really masked that. In 7 years on the job John Lynch has hit on 2 1st round picks, and I'm not sure he should get any credit at all for Bosa who was a no-brainer, but I'll give him credit for Aiyuk. Beyond that he has taken the following guys in round 1:

Soloman Thomas, 3rd overall, huge bust
Reuben Foster, 31st overall, talented, but had obvious red flags at the time
Mike McGlinchey, 9th overall, ok starter
Javon Kinlaw, 14th overall, not a difference maker
Trey Lance, 3rd overall and cost 3 1sts total, has shown nothing in 2 years, and has most likely already lost his job

Ok but surely he's finding guy on day 2 then right?
2017: Akhello Witherspoon and CJ Beathard
2018: Dante Pettis and Tarvarius Moore...and Fred Warner a very important exception
2019: Jalen Hurd and Deebo Samuel...another very important exception
2021: Trey Sermon and Ambry Thomas...jury is out on Aaron Banks
2022: Drake Jackson, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Danny Gray, hardly any played, TDP looked pretty bad when he did.

Where Lynch has shined is day 3
2017: George Kittle
2019: Dre Greenlaw
2021: Talanoa Hufanga
2022: Brock Purdy

Still in 7 years, Lynch has added maybe 10 decent or better players in the draft, its just he's hit on 4 elite guys. I'd have to sit down and weigh that against other GM's who have had that level of longevity and success, but my point is, Lynch making iffy draft calls isn't all that out of character. He's probably the most boom/bust GM in the NFL.

Good stuff, thanks. Def don't ever do a deep dive on the 49ers, just vaguely aware they have very few holes in their overall roster construction.

Wondering if anyone has signed more UDFA contributors? Doesn't even include Mostert, who burned through like a half dozen team's practice squad call ups before sticking. Holmes has uncovered a few UDFAs (Jerry Jacobs probably the best one so far) and also revived a few careers (Buggs and Cominsky.) The majority of the league is 5th round or later, and finding UDFAs or vet minimum guys who can contribute is huge given the yearly turnover every team sees these days.

 

[Moonlight]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

I get what you are saying about getting rookie contracts at value positions, but they didn't really have needs at those positions (could argue they didn't at RB, but I think they had already turned the page on Swift) other than maybe WR, if they were worried about Jameson Williams which this draft tells me they aren't. They have the best OL west of Philly, and a super deep EDGE group. CB maybe, but its likely either Branch or CJGJ plays slot CB. They clearly didn't want Jalen Carter, which I can respect, I think Branch and to a lesser extent Hooker are what really elevates this draft for me.

I do wonder if they would have taken Levis over LaPorta if he'd fallen 1 more pick to 34?

Its not the draft I would have done, but it didn't fall how I thought it would have. As a thought exercise, say they attack the same positions but in a more positional value-based order do you feel better about:
12-Calijah Kancey
18-Will Levis
34-Sam LaPorta
45-Drew Sanders
68-Ja'Ayir Brown
96-Roschon Johnson

They brought in some solid mercenaries but still don't have a true CB1. Sutton is the only CB signed for next year, so it's back to another hired gun or using your 1st rounder in 2024.

Howie never stops drafting DL. Jordan Davis barely saw the field last year. Hargrave leaves, they add Carter and Nolan Smith. But if you pay attention that's happening all over the roster. For them the draft if not for needs, it's for future proofing for when they don't want to resign guys. 49ers are the same way (most years, IDK wtf Lynch was doing this year, must have had some edibles.) You can never have too many Edge. My view is when you add to a strong positional group, you're just raising the floor of the room. That's a good thing.

They do have a nice laddered setup for the OL contracts; each of the five expires a different year. But they're a little thin at G and if they don't extend Jonah then they don't have a solution for next year on the roster. Would have loved to see a versatile guy like Avila taken in the early 2nd.

No issue with the four they took at 12, 18, 34 and 45, but I do question the impact of say Campbell over Simpson or Laporta over Kraft - could have found an equivalency 50 picks later IMO. But Holmes and Campbell are in lockstep that the film and talent are not the only factors. They want the right mix in the locker room, and the bare minimum is guys who eat, drink, sleep football and have a high football IQ. The guys they took all definitely fit the culture and play instinctually,

Just nitpicking really. I think Holmes is a good talent evaluator and while I don't agree with every decision, he's his own dog. He has a solid collaborative process and has had very few misfires to date.

I think Campbell is going to be so much better than Simpson due to his power, athleticism and instincts. Very possible he is a Jack Ham type player who will define the Detroit defense.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

I get what you are saying about getting rookie contracts at value positions, but they didn't really have needs at those positions (could argue they didn't at RB, but I think they had already turned the page on Swift) other than maybe WR, if they were worried about Jameson Williams which this draft tells me they aren't. They have the best OL west of Philly, and a super deep EDGE group. CB maybe, but its likely either Branch or CJGJ plays slot CB. They clearly didn't want Jalen Carter, which I can respect, I think Branch and to a lesser extent Hooker are what really elevates this draft for me.

I do wonder if they would have taken Levis over LaPorta if he'd fallen 1 more pick to 34?

Its not the draft I would have done, but it didn't fall how I thought it would have. As a thought exercise, say they attack the same positions but in a more positional value-based order do you feel better about:
12-Calijah Kancey
18-Will Levis
34-Sam LaPorta
45-Drew Sanders
68-Ja'Ayir Brown
96-Roschon Johnson

They brought in some solid mercenaries but still don't have a true CB1. Sutton is the only CB signed for next year, so it's back to another hired gun or using your 1st rounder in 2024.

Howie never stops drafting DL. Jordan Davis barely saw the field last year. Hargrave leaves, they add Carter and Nolan Smith. But if you pay attention that's happening all over the roster. For them the draft if not for needs, it's for future proofing for when they don't want to resign guys. 49ers are the same way (most years, IDK wtf Lynch was doing this year, must have had some edibles.) You can never have too many Edge. My view is when you add to a strong positional group, you're just raising the floor of the room. That's a good thing.

They do have a nice laddered setup for the OL contracts; each of the five expires a different year. But they're a little thin at G and if they don't extend Jonah then they don't have a solution for next year on the roster. Would have loved to see a versatile guy like Avila taken in the early 2nd.

No issue with the four they took at 12, 18, 34 and 45, but I do question the impact of say Campbell over Simpson or Laporta over Kraft - could have found an equivalency 50 picks later IMO. But Holmes and Campbell are in lockstep that the film and talent are not the only factors. They want the right mix in the locker room, and the bare minimum is guys who eat, drink, sleep football and have a high football IQ. The guys they took all definitely fit the culture and play instinctually,

Just nitpicking really. I think Holmes is a good talent evaluator and while I don't agree with every decision, he's his own dog. He has a solid collaborative process and has had very few misfires to date.

Davis was playing a good percentage of the snaps early on for Philly. Then he got a high ankle sprain and the the first game he was out, Washington ran all over Philly. Roseman acted quickly and signed Joseph and Suh to shore up the interior defense. Then once Davis was healthy enough to return he was part of an DT rotation that was now flooded with good players. If he doesn't get hurt he's probably part of a mostly three man rotation with Cox and Hargrave.

But I totally agree with their draft philosophy. We were discussing this in the Eagles thread when the rumor was that Bijan Robinson was a target at #10. When you look at what the Eagles spend on certain positions and what the NFL spends on certain positions, taking a RB make no value sense because even if you can stomach the rookie contract, if the player pans out do you really want to pay $13M+ for a RB on his second contract. Philly spends around $5M on the position total. But they have no problem dropping $10M+ on a OL or DE or DT. And if you look around the league, same thing, Mile Sanders was a pro bowl RB and he got 4 years, $25M. Javon Hargrave is a 30 year old DT (I bring up his age because that is about when DTs fall off a cliff) and he signed a 4 year, $81M. If you look at free agency you can see the top contracts are QB and in the trenches. Gibbs will get 4 years, $18.5M as a rookie contract. Would it have made more sense to sign Sanders and use #12 on a defensive player at a premium position (DE, DT or CB) there were some decent options available? It cost you $7M more over the 4 years but you save that in spades if the defensive player at #12 pans out.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Witherspoon then trade up for Gibbs was Plan A. Trading back and then taking Jahymer became Plan B, though they mulled over taking him with the 6th. Didn't necessarily have a higher grade on him over Bijan but they just thought Gibbs was a better fit.

The whole draft was a bit upside [down.] They came away with four guys who will contribute this year, probably 3 that will be starting by year end, + a 2-year project QB. Kind of hard to get around the fact they invested in the four least valuable positions, but they're trying to maximize the current window.

Not a huge fan. With the 4th most draft capital it would have been quite a feat to not come away with good players, but I would have preferred they converted that into rookie contracts at premium positions.

I get what you are saying about getting rookie contracts at value positions, but they didn't really have needs at those positions (could argue they didn't at RB, but I think they had already turned the page on Swift) other than maybe WR, if they were worried about Jameson Williams which this draft tells me they aren't. They have the best OL west of Philly, and a super deep EDGE group. CB maybe, but its likely either Branch or CJGJ plays slot CB. They clearly didn't want Jalen Carter, which I can respect, I think Branch and to a lesser extent Hooker are what really elevates this draft for me.

I do wonder if they would have taken Levis over LaPorta if he'd fallen 1 more pick to 34?

Its not the draft I would have done, but it didn't fall how I thought it would have. As a thought exercise, say they attack the same positions but in a more positional value-based order do you feel better about:
12-Calijah Kancey
18-Will Levis
34-Sam LaPorta
45-Drew Sanders
68-Ja'Ayir Brown
96-Roschon Johnson

They brought in some solid mercenaries but still don't have a true CB1. Sutton is the only CB signed for next year, so it's back to another hired gun or using your 1st rounder in 2024.

Howie never stops drafting DL. Jordan Davis barely saw the field last year. Hargrave leaves, they add Carter and Nolan Smith. But if you pay attention that's happening all over the roster. For them the draft if not for needs, it's for future proofing for when they don't want to resign guys. 49ers are the same way (most years, IDK wtf Lynch was doing this year, must have had some edibles.) You can never have too many Edge. My view is when you add to a strong positional group, you're just raising the floor of the room. That's a good thing.

They do have a nice laddered setup for the OL contracts; each of the five expires a different year. But they're a little thin at G and if they don't extend Jonah then they don't have a solution for next year on the roster. Would have loved to see a versatile guy like Avila taken in the early 2nd.

No issue with the four they took at 12, 18, 34 and 45, but I do question the impact of say Campbell over Simpson or Laporta over Kraft - could have found an equivalency 50 picks later IMO. But Holmes and Campbell are in lockstep that the film and talent are not the only factors. They want the right mix in the locker room, and the bare minimum is guys who eat, drink, sleep football and have a high football IQ. The guys they took all definitely fit the culture and play instinctually,

Just nitpicking really. I think Holmes is a good talent evaluator and while I don't agree with every decision, he's his own dog. He has a solid collaborative process and has had very few misfires to date.

I think Campbell is going to be so much better than Simpson due to his power, athleticism and instincts. Very possible he is a Jack Ham type player who will define the Detroit defense.

He's a little stiff in the hips, but his zone pass coverage was better than I realized. There's an interception he had off Stroud that was pretty impressive. Could see him and Rodrigo developing into a lite version of Greenlaw & Warner (who are incredible and they're not there, but it would be amazing if we could leave one or both in on nickel packages.) Campbell was 206 when he hit Iowa, nice to see he stayed so athletic while bulking up 43 pounds.

 

[Anarchy99]

Maybe not the best spot for this and probably better suited for its own thread. But not many Day 3 picks yield impact players. Here are all the players picked in Rounds 4-7 since 2010 that had AV scores of 40+ for the team that drafted them.

Player    Pos    Team    Year    Pick#    AV
Everson Griffin    DE    MIN    2010    100    65
Gino Atkins    DT    CIN    2010    120    89
Antonio Brown    WR    PIT    2010    195    86
K.J. Wright    LB    SEA    2011    99    62
Richard Sherman    CB    SEA    2011    154    82
Jason Kelce    C    PHI    2011    191    95
David Bakhtiari    OT    GBP    2013    109    84
Devonta Freeman    RB    ATL    2014    103    45
Telvin Smith    LB    JAX    2014    144    42
Corey Linsley    C    GBP    2014    161    47
Shaq Mason    C    NEP    2015    131    43
Grady Jarrett    NT    ATL    2015    137    49
Dak Prescott    QB    DAL    2016    135    77
Tyreek Hill    WR    KCC    2016    165    63
Eddie Jackson    S    CHI    2017    112    42
George Kittle    TE    SFO    2017    146    42
Matt Milano    LB    BUF    2017    163    50
Aaron Jones    RB    GBB    2017    182    51

That's only 18 players. Admittedly, guys from recent drafts haven't played long enough to earn an AV score that high, but that's only 18 guys from 8 years of drafts out of roughly 1,250 players drafted in those rounds in those drafts. That's about 1% of players picked in Round 4 or later.

 

[Stoneworker]

Broncos did just fine with what limited draft capital they had. Certainly not a D-.

They even got one more player than the picks they had, trading down and adding a former 3rd round TE from the Saints.

PFF had them at B+.

I was going more for overall team improvement, not bang for their buck. Otherwise, Detroit probably wouldn't have been so high.

Appreciate that POV but if that's the case then IMO it's only fair to consider the 1st round pick spent on Sean Payton. That will do more for overall Denver team improvement than all the draft picks combined.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Maybe not the best spot for this and probably better suited for its own thread. But not many Day 3 picks yield impact players. Here are all the players picked in Rounds 4-7 since 2010 that had AV scores of 40+ for the team that drafted them.

Player    Pos    Team    Year    Pick#    AV
Everson Griffin    DE    MIN    2010    100    65
Gino Atkins    DT    CIN    2010    120    89
Antonio Brown    WR    PIT    2010    195    86
K.J. Wright    LB    SEA    2011    99    62
Richard Sherman    CB    SEA    2011    154    82
Jason Kelce    C    PHI    2011    191    95
David Bakhtiari    OT    GBP    2013    109    84
Devonta Freeman    RB    ATL    2014    103    45
Telvin Smith    LB    JAX    2014    144    42
Corey Linsley    C    GBP    2014    161    47
Shaq Mason    C    NEP    2015    131    43
Grady Jarrett    NT    ATL    2015    137    49
Dak Prescott    QB    DAL    2016    135    77
Tyreek Hill    WR    KCC    2016    165    63
Eddie Jackson    S    CHI    2017    112    42
George Kittle    TE    SFO    2017    146    42
Matt Milano    LB    BUF    2017    163    50
Aaron Jones    RB    GBB    2017    182    51

That's only 18 players. Admittedly, guys from recent drafts haven't played long enough to earn an AV score that high, but that's only 18 guys from 8 years of drafts out of roughly 1,250 players drafted in those rounds in those drafts. That's about 1% of players picked in Round 4 or later.

I don't see the utility in this analysis. Why is 40 AV so special and why limit it to the team that drafted them? The Eagles, for example, have a couple players that play important roles drafted rounds 4 or later playing for them. 1.) Josh Sweat (AV: 22); 2.) Jordan Mailata (AV: 20); and 3.) Avonte Maddox (AV: 15). Josh Sweat is a beast for Philly, but he may only play another 2 years for Philly before he may become too costly for Philly to keep him around. Mailata will probably reach 40 AV. Maddox has no shot.

 

[Anarchy99]

Maybe not the best spot for this and probably better suited for its own thread. But not many Day 3 picks yield impact players. Here are all the players picked in Rounds 4-7 since 2010 that had AV scores of 40+ for the team that drafted them.

Player    Pos    Team    Year    Pick#    AV
Everson Griffin    DE    MIN    2010    100    65
Gino Atkins    DT    CIN    2010    120    89
Antonio Brown    WR    PIT    2010    195    86
K.J. Wright    LB    SEA    2011    99    62
Richard Sherman    CB    SEA    2011    154    82
Jason Kelce    C    PHI    2011    191    95
David Bakhtiari    OT    GBP    2013    109    84
Devonta Freeman    RB    ATL    2014    103    45
Telvin Smith    LB    JAX    2014    144    42
Corey Linsley    C    GBP    2014    161    47
Shaq Mason    C    NEP    2015    131    43
Grady Jarrett    NT    ATL    2015    137    49
Dak Prescott    QB    DAL    2016    135    77
Tyreek Hill    WR    KCC    2016    165    63
Eddie Jackson    S    CHI    2017    112    42
George Kittle    TE    SFO    2017    146    42
Matt Milano    LB    BUF    2017    163    50
Aaron Jones    RB    GBB    2017    182    51

That's only 18 players. Admittedly, guys from recent drafts haven't played long enough to earn an AV score that high, but that's only 18 guys from 8 years of drafts out of roughly 1,250 players drafted in those rounds in those drafts. That's about 1% of players picked in Round 4 or later.

I don't see the utility in this analysis. Why is 40 AV so special and why limit it to the team that drafted them? The Eagles, for example, have a couple players that play important roles drafted rounds 4 or later playing for them. 1.) Josh Sweat (AV: 22); 2.) Jordan Mailata (AV: 20); and 3.) Avonte Maddox (AV: 15). Josh Sweat is a beast for Philly, but he may only play another 2 years for Philly before he may become too costly for Philly to keep him around. Mailata will probably reach 40 AV. Maddox has no shot.

Oddly enough, I am not everyone's independent researcher. Perhaps if you don't like the effort, research, and leg work I did, maybe you could come up with something else on your own terms to illustrate your own vantage point. For starters, I picked a data point of 40 points of AV, which is not a Herculean milestone to overcome. Maybe that is too high, but that's what I went with. I used how someone performed for the team that drafted the player because what he ended up doing for another franchise really didn't help the team that drafted him. Maybe he was traded or earned back a compensatory pick. But I am not going to look up every player and every outcome.

There may very well be more recent guys that will get to 40 points of AV, and I acknowledged that straight away. The overall point was, there haven't been a ton of high impact players since 2010 taken in Rounds 4-7. Some guys started for several years, which certainly is worth something. But I cringe when some people evaluate drafts and say TEAM X landed 3-4 really good players at the front of the draft and would have had an A or A- grade based on those guys . . . but the slop they took with their 7 last day picks made no sense and dragged their draft grade down to a C+.

 

[efactor]

Trey Lance, 3rd overall and cost 3 1sts total, has shown nothing in 2 years, and has most likely already lost his job

You are aware that Lance was injured early in game 2 last year and didn't play the rest of the season, correct? Not sure what he was supposed to show last year.

You are also aware that Lance wasn't expected to play his rookie year as a 21 year old who had sat out 2020, and only saw the field when Garoppolo was hurt? He had 3 starts and he did play poorly his first two against Seattle and AZ. Kind of thrown into the fire when he wasn't ready yet. He actually played well in his 3rd start against Houston.

Lance may not live up to his draft capital, but that's an unknown at this point. To suggest he's a bust is short sighted. He hasn't shown anything as you say because he hasn't had the opportunity due to last years injury. As far as most likely lost his job, quite possible. But when a guy comes in as a rookie and plays at a high level (107 QBR and 13/4 TD/INT), that says more about Purdy than Lance. Kid looked amazing. However, if Purdy isn't ready for the start of the season and Lance gets 4-6 weeks as a starter, we will have a lot better gauge on him.

Also, Lenoir was a 5th year gem at CB. Played great at the end of the season and playoffs.

 

[travdogg]

Trey Lance, 3rd overall and cost 3 1sts total, has shown nothing in 2 years, and has most likely already lost his job

You are aware that Lance was injured early in game 2 last year and didn't play the rest of the season, correct? Not sure what he was supposed to show last year.

You are also aware that Lance wasn't expected to play his rookie year as a 21 year old who had sat out 2020, and only saw the field when Garoppolo was hurt? He had 3 starts and he did play poorly his first two against Seattle and AZ. Kind of thrown into the fire when he wasn't ready yet. He actually played well in his 3rd start against Houston.

Lance may not live up to his draft capital, but that's an unknown at this point. To suggest he's a bust is short sighted. He hasn't shown anything as you say because he hasn't had the opportunity due to last years injury. As far as most likely lost his job, quite possible. But when a guy comes in as a rookie and plays at a high level (107 QBR and 13/4 TD/INT), that says more about Purdy than Lance. Kid looked amazing. However, if Purdy isn't ready for the start of the season and Lance gets 4-6 weeks as a starter, we will have a lot better gauge on him.

Also, Lenoir was a 5th year gem at CB. Played great at the end of the season and playoffs.

The reasons are happenstance. Reuben Foster was an awesome LB, but he's a bad pick because he barely played. Lance has done nothing in 2 years and is more likely the #3 QB (behind Darnold) than the #1. I'm honestly not sure Purdy is good either, or if Shanahan is just an amazing playcaller. I've never thought much of Jimmy G, but he put up high-end efficiency numbers because of Shanahan, and Purdy came in and was instantly as good or better. I wouldn't be shocked if Darnold sees the field, he looks like a legit QB.

Lenoir might one day be on that list, but its WAY too early to call him some big hit. He was mostly good in the playoffs, but he also got torched a bunch down the stretch, including getting embarrassed by the corpse of AJ Green, and overall was a very mediocre CB last season.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Maybe not the best spot for this and probably better suited for its own thread. But not many Day 3 picks yield impact players. Here are all the players picked in Rounds 4-7 since 2010 that had AV scores of 40+ for the team that drafted them.

Player    Pos    Team    Year    Pick#    AV
Everson Griffin    DE    MIN    2010    100    65
Gino Atkins    DT    CIN    2010    120    89
Antonio Brown    WR    PIT    2010    195    86
K.J. Wright    LB    SEA    2011    99    62
Richard Sherman    CB    SEA    2011    154    82
Jason Kelce    C    PHI    2011    191    95
David Bakhtiari    OT    GBP    2013    109    84
Devonta Freeman    RB    ATL    2014    103    45
Telvin Smith    LB    JAX    2014    144    42
Corey Linsley    C    GBP    2014    161    47
Shaq Mason    C    NEP    2015    131    43
Grady Jarrett    NT    ATL    2015    137    49
Dak Prescott    QB    DAL    2016    135    77
Tyreek Hill    WR    KCC    2016    165    63
Eddie Jackson    S    CHI    2017    112    42
George Kittle    TE    SFO    2017    146    42
Matt Milano    LB    BUF    2017    163    50
Aaron Jones    RB    GBB    2017    182    51

That's only 18 players. Admittedly, guys from recent drafts haven't played long enough to earn an AV score that high, but that's only 18 guys from 8 years of drafts out of roughly 1,250 players drafted in those rounds in those drafts. That's about 1% of players picked in Round 4 or later.

I don't see the utility in this analysis. Why is 40 AV so special and why limit it to the team that drafted them? The Eagles, for example, have a couple players that play important roles drafted rounds 4 or later playing for them. 1.) Josh Sweat (AV: 22); 2.) Jordan Mailata (AV: 20); and 3.) Avonte Maddox (AV: 15). Josh Sweat is a beast for Philly, but he may only play another 2 years for Philly before he may become too costly for Philly to keep him around. Mailata will probably reach 40 AV. Maddox has no shot.

Oddly enough, I am not everyone's independent researcher. Perhaps if you don't like the effort, research, and leg work I did, maybe you could come up with something else on your own terms to illustrate your own vantage point. For starters, I picked a data point of 40 points of AV, which is not a Herculean milestone to overcome. Maybe that is too high, but that's what I went with. I used how someone performed for the team that drafted the player because what he ended up doing for another franchise really didn't help the team that drafted him. Maybe he was traded or earned back a compensatory pick. But I am not going to look up every player and every outcome.

There may very well be more recent guys that will get to 40 points of AV, and I acknowledged that straight away. The overall point was, there haven't been a ton of high impact players since 2010 taken in Rounds 4-7. Some guys started for several years, which certainly is worth something. But I cringe when some people evaluate drafts and say TEAM X landed 3-4 really good players at the front of the draft and would have had an A or A- grade based on those guys . . . but the slop they took with their 7 last day picks made no sense and dragged their draft grade down to a C+.

40 AV isn't a Herculean milestone? I used Josh Sweat in my last post. The last two season's he's played 32 games, started 29. He has 18.5 sacks, 1 int, 93 tackles (22 TFL), 36 qb hits and a pro bowl. He accumulated 16 AV over those 2 seasons. Hasaan Reddick had back to back years where he got 12.5 sacks and then 11.0 sacks and only accumulated 13 AV. Since the average NFL career is only 3.3 years it actually is a Herculean effort to get to 40. A player has to play at a near pro bowl level for 5 seasons to even sniff accumulating 40 AV. In the alternative, a player can play a lot of years in the league and eventually compile 40 AV (see for example, Jordan Poyer). But in your arbitrary categories, Josh Sweat (or Jordan Poyer) could accumulate 40 AV and still not be included in your list because they could leave the team that drafted them before getting to 40 AV. But that makes sense since, only 30% of 1st round picks get a second NFL contract with the same team and I can bet those numbers decrease as you move down each round. That second contract is what it takes for most players to accumulate 40 AV with the same team. Like I said, I don't see the utility in this research.

 

[efactor]

Trey Lance, 3rd overall and cost 3 1sts total, has shown nothing in 2 years, and has most likely already lost his job

You are aware that Lance was injured early in game 2 last year and didn't play the rest of the season, correct? Not sure what he was supposed to show last year.

You are also aware that Lance wasn't expected to play his rookie year as a 21 year old who had sat out 2020, and only saw the field when Garoppolo was hurt? He had 3 starts and he did play poorly his first two against Seattle and AZ. Kind of thrown into the fire when he wasn't ready yet. He actually played well in his 3rd start against Houston.

Lance may not live up to his draft capital, but that's an unknown at this point. To suggest he's a bust is short sighted. He hasn't shown anything as you say because he hasn't had the opportunity due to last years injury. As far as most likely lost his job, quite possible. But when a guy comes in as a rookie and plays at a high level (107 QBR and 13/4 TD/INT), that says more about Purdy than Lance. Kid looked amazing. However, if Purdy isn't ready for the start of the season and Lance gets 4-6 weeks as a starter, we will have a lot better gauge on him.

Also, Lenoir was a 5th year gem at CB. Played great at the end of the season and playoffs.

The reasons are happenstance. Reuben Foster was an awesome LB, but he's a bad pick because he barely played. Lance has done nothing in 2 years and is more likely the #3 QB (behind Darnold) than the #1. I'm honestly not sure Purdy is good either, or if Shanahan is just an amazing playcaller. I've never thought much of Jimmy G, but he put up high-end efficiency numbers because of Shanahan, and Purdy came in and was instantly as good or better. I wouldn't be shocked if Darnold sees the field, he looks like a legit QB.

Lenoir might one day be on that list, but its WAY too early to call him some big hit. He was mostly good in the playoffs, but he also got torched a bunch down the stretch, including getting embarrassed by the corpse of AJ Green, and overall was a very mediocre CB last season.

Good god. You will literally say anything to back up your bad narrative

Equating Foster and his personal issues to a young QB who got hurt? You can't be serious

Lenoir was the slot CB before Mosely got hurt and he moved outside. Took a few games but he was excellent the last part of the season and the playoffs. The one fluke AJ Green catch doesn't change that. Your narrative that he got torched "a bunch" is a made up one. He was really good.

 

[travdogg]

Trey Lance, 3rd overall and cost 3 1sts total, has shown nothing in 2 years, and has most likely already lost his job

You are aware that Lance was injured early in game 2 last year and didn't play the rest of the season, correct? Not sure what he was supposed to show last year.

You are also aware that Lance wasn't expected to play his rookie year as a 21 year old who had sat out 2020, and only saw the field when Garoppolo was hurt? He had 3 starts and he did play poorly his first two against Seattle and AZ. Kind of thrown into the fire when he wasn't ready yet. He actually played well in his 3rd start against Houston.

Lance may not live up to his draft capital, but that's an unknown at this point. To suggest he's a bust is short sighted. He hasn't shown anything as you say because he hasn't had the opportunity due to last years injury. As far as most likely lost his job, quite possible. But when a guy comes in as a rookie and plays at a high level (107 QBR and 13/4 TD/INT), that says more about Purdy than Lance. Kid looked amazing. However, if Purdy isn't ready for the start of the season and Lance gets 4-6 weeks as a starter, we will have a lot better gauge on him.

Also, Lenoir was a 5th year gem at CB. Played great at the end of the season and playoffs.

The reasons are happenstance. Reuben Foster was an awesome LB, but he's a bad pick because he barely played. Lance has done nothing in 2 years and is more likely the #3 QB (behind Darnold) than the #1. I'm honestly not sure Purdy is good either, or if Shanahan is just an amazing playcaller. I've never thought much of Jimmy G, but he put up high-end efficiency numbers because of Shanahan, and Purdy came in and was instantly as good or better. I wouldn't be shocked if Darnold sees the field, he looks like a legit QB.

Lenoir might one day be on that list, but its WAY too early to call him some big hit. He was mostly good in the playoffs, but he also got torched a bunch down the stretch, including getting embarrassed by the corpse of AJ Green, and overall was a very mediocre CB last season.

Good god. You will literally say anything to back up your bad narrative

Equating Foster and his personal issues to a young QB who got hurt? You can't be serious

Lenoir was the slot CB before Mosely got hurt and he moved outside. Took a few games but he was excellent the last part of the season and the playoffs. The one fluke AJ Green catch doesn't change that. Your narrative that he got torched "a bunch" is a made up one. He was really good.

I'm saying that whatever a reason a pick doesn't work out, whether it be off field, injuries, or just not being good, it doesn't really matter, the bottom line is the player hasn't helped the team. Trey Lance was the #3 pick and hasn't helped the team in any way and is unlikely to do so, and when you add in that his cost was essentially 3 1sts, that's a really bad pick. Doesn't matter what excuses there are for him (even if they are reasonable) he still hasn't helped at all, and that's all that matters. I'm not saying Trey Lance sucks (though he might, we can't say for sure) but he has not contributed to the 49ers success at all since he was drafted, that's undeniable.

I mean, Davante Adams torched Lenoir as well, but that's the arguably the best WR in the NFL. I won't deny that Lenoir played some of his best football in the playoffs, but the guy gave up a passer rating over 80 in half of his games last season, including over 97 in 3 of the last 4 regular season games. Really good is not how I'd describe that at all, though again, a bit of a pass against Adams.

 

[efactor]

I mean, Davante Adams torched Lenoir as well, but that's the arguably the best WR in the NFL. I won't deny that Lenoir played some of his best football in the playoffs, but the guy gave up a passer rating over 80 in half of his games last season, including over 97 in 3 of the last 4 regular season games. Really good is not how I'd describe that at all, though again, a bit of a pass against Adams.

Just to be fair to Lenoir, Adams did most of his torching that day against Mooney Ward and the safeties. He did have on long catch against Lenoir, but if you watch the replay, Lenoir couldn't have played it much better. Watched the play about 20 times after the game and it's the kind of play where you are still surprised each time that Adams caught it. About as amazing of a catch as you will see. Got away with a bit of a push and then stuck one hand in and somehow grabbed it away.

 

[jon_mx]

Maybe not the best spot for this and probably better suited for its own thread. But not many Day 3 picks yield impact players. Here are all the players picked in Rounds 4-7 since 2010 that had AV scores of 40+ for the team that drafted them.

Player    Pos    Team    Year    Pick#    AV
Everson Griffin    DE    MIN    2010    100    65
Gino Atkins    DT    CIN    2010    120    89
Antonio Brown    WR    PIT    2010    195    86
K.J. Wright    LB    SEA    2011    99    62
Richard Sherman    CB    SEA    2011    154    82
Jason Kelce    C    PHI    2011    191    95
David Bakhtiari    OT    GBP    2013    109    84
Devonta Freeman    RB    ATL    2014    103    45
Telvin Smith    LB    JAX    2014    144    42
Corey Linsley    C    GBP    2014    161    47
Shaq Mason    C    NEP    2015    131    43
Grady Jarrett    NT    ATL    2015    137    49
Dak Prescott    QB    DAL    2016    135    77
Tyreek Hill    WR    KCC    2016    165    63
Eddie Jackson    S    CHI    2017    112    42
George Kittle    TE    SFO    2017    146    42
Matt Milano    LB    BUF    2017    163    50
Aaron Jones    RB    GBB    2017    182    51

That's only 18 players. Admittedly, guys from recent drafts haven't played long enough to earn an AV score that high, but that's only 18 guys from 8 years of drafts out of roughly 1,250 players drafted in those rounds in those drafts. That's about 1% of players picked in Round 4 or later.

And Homes has already hit on Amon-Ra and Houston who have had huge impacts already, and Rodrigo could be a third. I think there is a decent chance Brad hits one or two more this year (Sorsdal at OL or Green at WR). That is a pretty amazing feat compared to other teams. Brad also packaged up 3 of those late round lottery tickets for Martin at DT, who also has a decent chance of making an impact in a couple years.

 

[travdogg]

Maybe not the best spot for this and probably better suited for its own thread. But not many Day 3 picks yield impact players. Here are all the players picked in Rounds 4-7 since 2010 that had AV scores of 40+ for the team that drafted them.

Player    Pos    Team    Year    Pick#    AV
Everson Griffin    DE    MIN    2010    100    65
Gino Atkins    DT    CIN    2010    120    89
Antonio Brown    WR    PIT    2010    195    86
K.J. Wright    LB    SEA    2011    99    62
Richard Sherman    CB    SEA    2011    154    82
Jason Kelce    C    PHI    2011    191    95
David Bakhtiari    OT    GBP    2013    109    84
Devonta Freeman    RB    ATL    2014    103    45
Telvin Smith    LB    JAX    2014    144    42
Corey Linsley    C    GBP    2014    161    47
Shaq Mason    C    NEP    2015    131    43
Grady Jarrett    NT    ATL    2015    137    49
Dak Prescott    QB    DAL    2016    135    77
Tyreek Hill    WR    KCC    2016    165    63
Eddie Jackson    S    CHI    2017    112    42
George Kittle    TE    SFO    2017    146    42
Matt Milano    LB    BUF    2017    163    50
Aaron Jones    RB    GBB    2017    182    51

That's only 18 players. Admittedly, guys from recent drafts haven't played long enough to earn an AV score that high, but that's only 18 guys from 8 years of drafts out of roughly 1,250 players drafted in those rounds in those drafts. That's about 1% of players picked in Round 4 or later.

And Homes has already hit on Amon-Ra and Houston who have had huge impacts already, and Rodrigo could be a third. I think there is a decent chance Brad hits one or two more this year (Sorsdal at OL or Green at WR). That is a pretty amazing feat compared to other teams. Brad also packaged up 3 of those late round lottery tickets for Martin at DT, who also has a decent chance of making an impact in a couple years.

Not taking anything away from Holmes at all, he's doing great, but it still blows my mind St. Brown fell to day 3. I don't know how anyone could have looked at him and not seen an NFL starter. Not saying he was obviously going to be as good as he's been, but that was a weird collective miss by the NFL, that I, and as I recall, most avid draft followers were pretty consensus on.

 

[jon_mx]

Maybe not the best spot for this and probably better suited for its own thread. But not many Day 3 picks yield impact players. Here are all the players picked in Rounds 4-7 since 2010 that had AV scores of 40+ for the team that drafted them.

Player    Pos    Team    Year    Pick#    AV
Everson Griffin    DE    MIN    2010    100    65
Gino Atkins    DT    CIN    2010    120    89
Antonio Brown    WR    PIT    2010    195    86
K.J. Wright    LB    SEA    2011    99    62
Richard Sherman    CB    SEA    2011    154    82
Jason Kelce    C    PHI    2011    191    95
David Bakhtiari    OT    GBP    2013    109    84
Devonta Freeman    RB    ATL    2014    103    45
Telvin Smith    LB    JAX    2014    144    42
Corey Linsley    C    GBP    2014    161    47
Shaq Mason    C    NEP    2015    131    43
Grady Jarrett    NT    ATL    2015    137    49
Dak Prescott    QB    DAL    2016    135    77
Tyreek Hill    WR    KCC    2016    165    63
Eddie Jackson    S    CHI    2017    112    42
George Kittle    TE    SFO    2017    146    42
Matt Milano    LB    BUF    2017    163    50
Aaron Jones    RB    GBB    2017    182    51

That's only 18 players. Admittedly, guys from recent drafts haven't played long enough to earn an AV score that high, but that's only 18 guys from 8 years of drafts out of roughly 1,250 players drafted in those rounds in those drafts. That's about 1% of players picked in Round 4 or later.

And Homes has already hit on Amon-Ra and Houston who have had huge impacts already, and Rodrigo could be a third. I think there is a decent chance Brad hits one or two more this year (Sorsdal at OL or Green at WR). That is a pretty amazing feat compared to other teams. Brad also packaged up 3 of those late round lottery tickets for Martin at DT, who also has a decent chance of making an impact in a couple years.

Not taking anything away from Holmes at all, he's doing great, but it still blows my mind St. Brown fell to day 3. I don't know how anyone could have looked at him and not seen an NFL starter. Not saying he was obviously going to be as good as he's been, but that was a weird collective miss by the NFL, that I, and as I recall, most avid draft followers were pretty consensus on.

Not really. The consensus on ARSB was about the 13th WR in a very strong class, projected in the 3rd round. It was not mind-blowing that he fell as the 15th WR picked in the 4th round. I was very positive on what I saw on his film and thought he had potential to be a solid starter for the Lions. I really liked his running ability and his toughness. But there was a lot of pushback using this forth-round pick logic that they never pan out.