Travdogg's positional rankings from week 11 onward (3 Viewers)

[travdogg]

Did a lot of recalibrating this week and putting some more emphasis on schedules down the stretch.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen (2)
2. Patrick Mahomes (4), stumbled against the Bills, but that felt mostly OL related. They are healthy coming out of the bye, and Mahomes had 23+ in all but 1 game before that.
3. Lamar Jackson (1)
4. Jalen Hurts (3)
5. Drake Maye (5)

Tier 2:
6. Matthew Stafford (14), up to QB4 PPG, still hate the zero as a runner, but he's playing the best ball of his career, in the best offense in the NFL. 13 TDs in the last 3 games. On pace for 4500-47.
7. Justin Herbert (6)
8. Dak Prescott (15), I've been all over the place with him all year. Truth is he's just inconsistent. Has been running a bit more, and remaining schedule is a mix of great matchups and chase scripts.
9. Baker Mayfield (11)
10. Jaxson Dart (13)

Tier 3:
11. Caleb Williams (8)
12. Daniel Jones (9)
13. Bo Nix (7)
14. Jared Goff (12)
15. Sam Darnold (NR), yep, putting him on the list after his worst game of the season. He's been in the 20-15 range for a while, and I wanted to take Love off is most of the reason. Darnold is on pace for 4200-32, which isn't far of last year's totals, but he's doing it on quite a bit less volume.

Dropped off: Jordan Love (10), I think the loss of Kraft may have killed this offense. OL injuries don't help either. Packers have scored 20 points the last 2 weeks, and schedule isn't great other than the Giants this week, and Bears later.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Jonathan Taylor (1)
2. Christian McCaffrey (2)
3. Jahmyr Gibbs (7), on the one hand, he's been pretty evenly rotating drives with Monty. On the other, he's the most explosive player in the league. Probably the most boom/bust guy in this tier, but the booms are right there with Taylor.
4. De'Von Achane (6)
5. James Cook (3)
6. Bijan Robinson (5)

Tier 2:
7. Josh Jacobs (4)
8. Javonte Williams (8)
9. Kyren Williams (10)
10. Rico Dowdle (14)
11. Saquon Barkley (9)
12. Breece Hall (19), much better with Fields than Taylor, he's been hitting big plays again the last 2 weeks. Other than NE, schedule is gorgeous down the stretch.
13. Chase Brown (20), Perine being out is huge. Brown could see a workload akin to last season again, but also, I think he benefits more from an ahead of schedule Burrow return than anyone else does.

Tier 3:
14. Bucky Irving (11)
15. Derrick Henry (12)
16. Ashton Jeanty (13)
17. Quinshon Judkins (15)
18. Jaylen Warren (18)
19. TreVeyon Henderson (NR), I can't imagine putting the genie back in the bottle after Sunday. Henderson just gives the offense an explosiveness that makes it even harder to stop, and it was tough to stop Maye and co. already. The question is range of outcomes. Will he be this year's Irving as a rookie who takes off in the 2nd half or is this the "Kenneth Walker without Charbonnet" blowup and its back to a close to even timeshare when Stevenson is back. I'm closer to the former than the latter, but I'm hedging. Either way, I think the days of single digit workloads are over.

Tier 4:
20. D'Andre Swift (17)
21. Omarion Hampton (16), shed his walking boot and is considered a shot to be back after the Chargers week 12 bye. I'm coming around to the idea that Vidal has earned a much bigger part of the pie though, so that's the reason for the downgrade. I could see this being closer to a 50-50 backfield than it was when Hampton went down.
22. Travis Etienne (21)
23. RJ Harvey (NR), this might be too low, given Dobbins injury, but I think Sean Payton is committed to RBBC, and highly doubt Harvey just starts getting 75% of the workload. If he does, he should probably be up by Chase Brown, but I'm expecting a bit of a boom/bust RB2.
24. Aaron Jones (NR), I wanted to give it a week, and see that it wasn't just a one-off, but its not, Jones has dusted Mason with a 75% snap share. That basically puts him in the same boat he was in last season, only in a worse offense.
25. Woody Marks (30), was the 78% snap share because of a huge chase script, or a sign of things to come? I think its closer to the latter, but don't feel strongly enough about it to put Marks higher yet.

Tier 5:
26. David Montgomery (23)
27. Kyle Monangai (NR), was about a 60-40 split in Swift's return. Bears are 2nd most run heavy team in the last month. He's kinda become their Monty.
28. Zach Charbonnet (28)
29. Kenneth Walker (24)
30. Kareem Hunt (NR), boring player, who none the less has a good shot at a TD every week that Pacheco is out, and who knows how long that will be, or how good he'll be when he returns. I'm not worried about Brashad Smith.

Dropped off: JK Dobbins (22), foot injury, and an IR stint has been said to be possible. Jordan Mason (25), got dusted by Aaron Jones, I will say I don't think its all his fault, OL was all backups for a stretch, but he needed to do more. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (26), 3-man RBBC, with a running QB, it ain't happening for Bill. Rhamondre Stevenson (27), at this point, I think the best-case scenario for him may be being this offenses Charbonnet/Hunt. Alvin Kamara (29), coming off arguably his best game of the season, but I feel like he's a sell high if you can convince people that Shough and no Miller means he's back to being an RB2. Still has to deal with Hill, and its still a bad offense.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Rashee Rice (1)
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2)
3. Puka Nacua (3)
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
5. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
6. CeeDee Lamb (12), been a little unlucky with TDs. I think maybe I was focusing on that too much. Has at least 8 targets in every game he's finished, and like his schedule. More than Pickens every week since he's been back.

Tier 2:
7. Drake London (6)
8. Davante Adams (7)
9. Emeka Egbuka (9)
10. Nico Collins (17), chase script certainly helped in 7-136 game, but he has 10+ targets in 3 in a row. Coincidence or concern that both his 100-yard games this season came against the Jags?
11. Justin Jefferson (8)

Tier 3:
12. George Pickens (10)
13. Rome Odunze (14)
14. Tee Higgins (18)
15. Jaylen Waddle (15)
16. DeVonta Smith (24), outscored AJ 6 times in 8 games they've played together this season. Its 1A/1B at this point, and Smith isn't the 1B.
17. Ladd McConkey (21)
18. AJ Brown (19)

Tier 4:
19. Garrett Wilson (11), sort of the WR version of Bucky Irving. Top-10 upside when he's back, but that may be in December.
20. Chris Olave (28)
21. Courtland Sutton (23)
22. Marvin Harrison (25)
23. Zay Flowers (27)
24. Tetairoa McMillan (26)
25. Stefon Diggs (33)

Tier 5:
26. Quentin Johnston (16), probably shouldn't have had him above Ladd, that was a hunch that didn't pan out, that said, can't help but feel like a big game is coming soon.
27. Michael Pittman (13), maybe this is an overreaction, but I feel its more of a whack-a-mole than previously thought with Pittman/Pierce/Warren.
28. DK Metcalf (20)
29. Jordan Addison (22)
30. Deebo Samuel (29)
31. Alec Pierce (NR), 20% target share on the season, just in time for his contract year. Always a weapon downfield, he's been a more complete player this season.
32. Jameson Williams (37)
33. Romeo Doubs (36)

Tier 6:
34. Ricky Pearsall (39)
35. Troy Franklin (NR), out targeting Sutton on the season. Has at least 8 weekly targets, and 4 TDs in his last 4 games.
36. Wan'Dale Robinson (32)
37. Khalil Shakir (38)
38. Terry McLaurin (35)
39. Brian Thomas (30), giving a lost season vibe. Don't know how healthy he is, but he doesn't have a rapport with Lawrence (not like Parker Washington I guess) and now Meyers is on board, I gave thought to taking him off the list.
40. DJ Moore (34)

Dropped off: Keenan Allen (31), has taken a clear backseat of late. Only 15 targets in last 3 games, isn't gonna do it for a guy who isn't a downfield player. Xavier Worthy (40), 1 game this season over 53 yards. He's a gadget/decoy right now, and I don't expect that to change as long as Rice/Kelce are both healthy.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Trey McBride (1), McBride has been WR1 since Brissett took over. Remember like a month ago when people were talking about how much of a mistake it was to have taken a TE high?
2. Brock Bowers (2)
3. Tyler Warren (3)

Tier 2:
4. Jake Ferguson (5)
5. Travis Kelce (10), has surprisingly been better since Rice came back. On pace for a very underrated 70-1000-6. Wouldn't be shocked if that TD number ended up higher.
6. Sam LaPorta (7)
7. George Kittle (4), why a downgrade coming off his best game you ask? SF's schedule. Kittle has only seen volume in chase script, and SF should be clear favorites in every game other than Indy in week 16.

Tier 3:
8. Dallas Goedert (6), pretty much TD or bust, but 7 TDs leads all TEs.
9. Dalton Kincaid (9)
10. Oronde Gadsden (8)

Tier 4:
11. Juwan Johnson (NR), looks like the #2 with Shaheed gone, and Shough looked better than expected against Carolina. Other than that week 4-6 stretch he's been a solid low-end TE1.
12. Mark Andrews (11)
13. Hunter Henry (15)
14. Theo Johnson (NR), has 75 yards or a TD in 5 of Dart's 7 starts. Has some awful drops on tape, but he's a great athlete.
15. Zach Ertz (NR), a boring but safe bet for 4-40 and like a 40% chance of a TD. Could do a lot worse.

Dropped off: Kyle Pitts (12), bad hands+bad QB=off the list. I might have scored on his drop against Indy. Darren Waller (13), just too hard to justify hanging onto. Who knows when he'll be back? Harold Fannin (14), good player, but pass game isn't good enough to be a split snap player. Great dynasty bet though.

 

[Shrugs]

I’m looking to trade your No 4 TE, Ferguson, and ride Otton, who you still don’t have ranked, as I think he will be better ROS.

 

[wgoldsph]

Con - waking up at 5am
Pro - new @travdogg rankings

Good stuff here. Not a lot I really disagree with. Higgins is at least a tier too low - he's been a top five wr since Flacco took over. I'd push Williams to the tail end of rb1 group personally. Also I'm more bullish on Pierce and think he's due for positive td regression and could get over 1k yards by the end of the season.

Also - I don't think you should discount the possibility that Garrett Wilson might just be shut down in a lost season.

I’m looking to trade your No 4 TE, Ferguson, and ride Otton, who you still don’t have ranked, as I think he will be better ROS.

I've fallen into the Otton trap... He's Zach Ertz with less TDs.

 

[FarFromHome]

Stafford!!!! Welcome aboard the water is fine!! Ha ha

 

[chad in Indy]

I think (hope) Kittle sees an uptick when Purdy returns. He's a higher target priority w Purdy than Jones.

 

[The Dude]

Great job - just want to call out that there's rumors about Bucky needing surgery and his coach said there's no timetable for his return. They are not sure his shoulder can take a hit,

 

[the moops]

Good stuff here. Not a lot I really disagree with. Higgins is at least a tier too low - he's been a top five wr since Flacco took over.

Was curious if this was accurate and it sure is.

Week 6-10 WR rankings

London
Chase
JSN
McConkey
Olave
Higgins
Adams
Smith
Waddle
Pickens

 

[Doubles]

Con - waking up at 5am
Pro - new @travdogg rankings

Good stuff here. Not a lot I really disagree with. Higgins is at least a tier too low - he's been a top five wr since Flacco took over. I'd push Williams to the tail end of rb1 group personally. Also I'm more bullish on Pierce and think he's due for positive td regression and could get over 1k yards by the end of the season.

Also - I don't think you should discount the possibility that Garrett Wilson might just be shut down in a lost season.

I’m looking to trade your No 4 TE, Ferguson, and ride Otton, who you still don’t have ranked, as I think he will be better ROS.

I've fallen into the Otton trap... He's Zach Ertz with less TDs.

You’d rank Schultz over him this week? Looking to start one of them over Loveland.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I struggle to see J Allen as the #1 QB when he clearly lacks weapons and guys keep getting hurt. Not sure where to rank him, but #1 just seems high.

 

[tricky92]

I struggle to see J Allen as the #1 QB when he clearly lacks weapons and guys keep getting hurt. Not sure where to rank him, but #1 just seems high.

I have Allen and I agree. He just lost his most reliable receiving weapon in Kincaid.
They really need to unleash Cook in the screen game.

 

[travdogg]

I’m looking to trade your No 4 TE, Ferguson, and ride Otton, who you still don’t have ranked, as I think he will be better ROS.

Otton was in the cutdown from 20, but I don't see him having Ferguson's ceiling (or talent) at all. I do think Otton is at his peak right now, but he's not a TD threat, and he's somewhat chase script dependent. That's fine for the next couple games (BUF, LAR) but the schedule is pretty cake from week 13 onward, and eventually we could (should?) get all of Irving, Evans, and Godwin back, and they all check in ahead of Otton priority wise.

I think Otton was a great bye week fill-in for Ferguson last week, but there is a lot of reason to think that's his peak.

 

[travdogg]

Con - waking up at 5am
Pro - new @travdogg rankings

Good stuff here. Not a lot I really disagree with. Higgins is at least a tier too low - he's been a top five wr since Flacco took over. I'd push Williams to the tail end of rb1 group personally. Also I'm more bullish on Pierce and think he's due for positive td regression and could get over 1k yards by the end of the season.

Also - I don't think you should discount the possibility that Garrett Wilson might just be shut down in a lost season.

Happy to make the early morning more tolerable.

Perhaps a bold call, but I kinda wonder if the impending Burrow return might actually be somewhat bad news for Higgins. In the meantime, while he has been great PPG since Flacco took over, I think Higgins is still Higgins and has a lot of boom/bust to him. I think high-end WR2 who can pop off for a top-5 weeks is similar to the other guys in his tier, especially Pickens and Odunze.

Which Williams are you talking about? Javonte or Kyren? In Javonte's case, I think the possibility for chase scripts lowering his volume and lack of huge plays hurts. In Kyren's case, its the Corum usage, and somewhat pass heavy nature at the GL.

Pierce is a tough guy to rank. I've been resisting putting him on the list for weeks (he's been among the last cuts since the 10-target game against the Chargers) but I agree his current 900-2 pace seems pretty beatable. I think he's probably my pick to lead the Colts in receiving yards the rest of the way, but Pittman and Warren are better bets for catches and TDs.

Great job - just want to call out that there's rumors about Bucky needing surgery and his coach said there's no timetable for his return. They are not sure his shoulder can take a hit,

Yeah, both Wilson and Bucky Irving are in the boat for me, where I think they are both top-10 guys when healthy, but there is a non-zero chance they aren't coming back. At this point for me, they are both guys I'd call holds, but I'm not sure I'd be buying or selling, unless the offers were Godfather offers, I just couldn't refuse.

 

[travdogg]

I think (hope) Kittle sees an uptick when Purdy returns. He's a higher target priority w Purdy than Jones.

Love Kittle as a player (I think he's the best actual TE in the NFL) and I would agree Purdy would help in theory, but my concerns about that theory are twofold.

1. Will the Purdy we get be as good as he's been? Purdy has been super banged up this season, and while the toe is the big issue, he also had others. Will they be as pass heavy as they were the prior 2 seasons, or will they make more of an effort to protect Purdy,?

2. Kittle's 2024 season comes with the huge caveat that there was no CMC, who I think is pretty clearly above Kittle (and everyone else) in the SF pecking order. If Kittle gets there, I think its gonna have to be more on TDs than anything else, which he is certainly capable of, but I don't feel quite as good about it as I do with the tier 1 guys, though I'd have no issues at all about Kittle as high as #4, its a close tier. I just feel Dallas and KC are much more pass heavy offenses, and the Lions are much more efficient.

 

[miqws]

Great job - just want to call out that there's rumors about Bucky needing surgery and his coach said there's no timetable for his return. They are not sure his shoulder can take a hit,

FWIW Irving spotted at practice Link

 

[travdogg]

I struggle to see J Allen as the #1 QB when he clearly lacks weapons and guys keep getting hurt. Not sure where to rank him, but #1 just seems high.

Sort of the somebody has to be #1 logic there. Allen is #1 in PPG and does have 4 rush TDs in the last 3 games. He's had 2 down games this season, #1 a blowout in week 2 where he broke his nose in the 2nd quarter, and #2 that weird Falcons game where the defense couldn't get off the field.

To me, Allen is the highest floor guy, who also has sky high upside even with middling weapons. Who would you have #1? Mahomes? I'd like to have Lamar #1, but he's looked really hesitant to run since he came back, and that's an important part of his value. I feel like its premature to have Maye that high, and Hurts is too inconsistent with volume.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I struggle to see J Allen as the #1 QB when he clearly lacks weapons and guys keep getting hurt. Not sure where to rank him, but #1 just seems high.

Sort of the somebody has to be #1 logic there. Allen is #1 in PPG and does have 4 rush TDs in the last 3 games. He's had 2 down games this season, #1 a blowout in week 2 where he broke his nose in the 2nd quarter, and #2 that weird Falcons game where the defense couldn't get off the field.

To me, Allen is the highest floor guy, who also has sky high upside even with middling weapons. Who would you have #1? Mahomes? I'd like to have Lamar #1, but he's looked really hesitant to run since he came back, and that's an important part of his value. I feel like its premature to have Maye that high, and Hurts is too inconsistent with volume.

Yeah, all very fair. It could simply be a weird year. Just seems like Allen is struggling to maintain his floor and the upside is just gone right now.

 

[Tau837]

21. Omarion Hampton (16), shed his walking boot and is considered a shot to be back after the Chargers week 12 bye. I'm coming around to the idea that Vidal has earned a much bigger part of the pie though, so that's the reason for the downgrade. I could see this being closer to a 50-50 backfield than it was when Hampton went down.

Vidal has played well. But there isn't a single thing that he does better than Hampton. Once Hampton gets back to being capable of full workload, hard for me to believe this will be 50/50. One might debate when that will be... week 14? 15?

19. Garrett Wilson (11), sort of the WR version of Bucky Irving. Top-10 upside when he's back, but that may be in December.

How can he be #19 when we know he is guaranteed to miss at least 4 of the remaining 8 games?

 

[travdogg]

21. Omarion Hampton (16), shed his walking boot and is considered a shot to be back after the Chargers week 12 bye. I'm coming around to the idea that Vidal has earned a much bigger part of the pie though, so that's the reason for the downgrade. I could see this being closer to a 50-50 backfield than it was when Hampton went down.

Vidal has played well. But there isn't a single thing that he does better than Hampton. Once Hampton gets back to being capable of full workload, hard for me to believe this will be 50/50. One might debate when that will be... week 14? 15?

19. Garrett Wilson (11), sort of the WR version of Bucky Irving. Top-10 upside when he's back, but that may be in December.

How can he be #19 when we know he is guaranteed to miss at least 4 of the remaining 8 games?

Fully agree on Wilson. I was not operating under the idea that he was gonna be on IR when I wrote this up. Side effect of doing these on Tuesdays. I'd probably have Bucky different (higher) too now that he's practicing again, but Monday it was "there is no timetable" for him. Gadsden too, is another guy I'd probably have a bit higher, but I was fully expecting him to be out this week.

I can agree that there is nothing that Vidal does better than Hampton, but I think Vidal has shown he's good enough to take a lot bigger role. I don't think they want Hampton to be seeing the workload he saw for a few weeks before he got hurt. I'm not saying I think it will be 50-50, just closer to that than the 79% and 89% he saw the 2 games prior to getting hurt. I think 65% is a lot more likely. I think Vidal has shown enough, that he can maybe be what they were expecting Najee to be when the season started.

 

[kwille]

Great work! Love these posts. I'm thinking Schultz deserves be in the top 15 TEs, at least above Ertz.