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travdogg's positional rankings from week 17 onward (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
I'm factoring in leagues that play in week 18 as well, but for the most part, this could also double as a week 17 rankings list. Who wins/loses this week will affect who maybe is limited or sits next week, so I don't want to factor that in too much since almost anything can happen.

I'm assuming guys who are injured like Hurts, Lamar, Lockett, Watson etc. are playing so there is no hedging in their rankings. Obviously don't start guys who are inactive.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen (2)
2. Patrick Mahomes (3)
3. Jalen Hurts (1), one would think his rushing would be scaled back if he plays, other than perhaps the unstoppable QB sneak play.
Tier 2:
4. Joe Burrow (4)
5. Trevor Lawrence (6),
6. Justin Fields (5)
7. Justin Herbert (8)
8. Lamar Jackson (9)
Tier 3:
9. Geno Smith (7), may or may not have Lockett, and Jets are a very tough matchup.
10. Kirk Cousins (10)
11. Tua Tagovailoa (11)
12. Dak Prescott (12)
Tier 4:
13. Daniel Jones (13)
14. Tom Brady (14)
15. Derek Carr (15)
 
RB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Jacobs (1)
2. Christian McCaffrey (2)
3. Austin Ekeler (3)
Tier 2:
4. Derrick Henry (4)
5. Saquon Barkley (5)
Tier 3:
6. Dalvin Cook (7)
7. Rhamondre Stevenson (8)
8. James Conner (11), 3 straight RB1 weeks without Kyler Murray. He's the centerpiece of the offense, and that is huge, even in an offense this poor. Random thought, I think this is the perfect team for Sean Payton next year, if he wants back in, and one that would likely give him anything he wants control wise.
Tier 4:
9. Nick Chubb (6), hasn't had a top-20 week since Watson came back. That feels fluky, but its noteworthy.
10. Tony Pollard (12)
11. Aaron Jones (9)
12. Joe Mixon (14)
13. Kenneth Walker (10), looked healthy enough against KC, Jets are a bit of as run funnel, but might not get down early with White starting.
14. Alvin Kamara (18), back-to-back 100-yard games, Eagles D has been showing cracks in recent weeks.
Tier 5:
15. Miles Sanders (13)
16. Ezekiel Elliott (16)
17. Najee Harris (20)
18. Travis Etienne (17)
19. Jerick McKinnon (19)
Tier 6:
20. Leonard Fournette (NR), both he and White are just so involved on checkdowns, its hard to completely bust in PPR.
21. David Montgomery (21)
22. Tyler Allgeier (NR), back-to-back RB1 weeks since Ridder took over. Been very impressed by him, and think they could easily keep him as the starter in 2023.
23. Cam Akers (NR), been no lower than RB22 in the last month. If he wasn't Cam Akers I'd probably have him higher.
24. Isiah Pacheco (22)
25. Brian Robinson (15), this is a different, more pass heavy offense with Wentz, and Robinson is one of the guys who takes a hit in that case.
26. Rachaad White (NR)
Tier 7:
27. AJ Dillon (28)
28. D'Onta Foreman (30)
29. D'Andre Swift (26)
30. Latavius Murray (29)

Dropped off: JK Dobbins (23), just not seeing enough work, a dud if he doesn't hit some big plays. Zonovan Knight (24), suddenly back in a 3-man RBBC with Ty Johnson involved again. Jamaal Williams (25), saw his lowest snap rate of the season. Not only TD or bust, but barely ahead of Justin Jackson in the pecking order. Khalil Herbert (27), perhaps it was just because it was his first week back, but wasn't seeing all that much after Monty.
 
WR
Tier 1:
1. Justin Jefferson (1)
2. Tyreek Hill (2)
3. Davante Adams (3)
4. Stefon Diggs (4)
5. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
6. CeeDee Lamb (7)
Tier 3:
7. AJ Brown (6)
8. Jaylen Waddle (9)
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (8)
10. Garrett Wilson (16), Mike White is back just in time for a good matchup against Seattle's CBs who are more vulnerable to quicker WRs.
Tier 4:
11. Tee Higgins (14), TDs in 4 straight games he's actually played in, and should be involved in a shootout Monday.
12. Christian Kirk (10)
13. DK Metcalf (11)
14. Keenan Allen (12)
Tier 5:
15. Tyler Lockett (13)
16. Chris Godwin (17)
Tier 6:
17. Brandon Aiyuk (20), great matchup vs Vegas, and Aiyuk feels due as Kittle has had unsustainable TD production.
18. Chris Olave (21)
19. Christian Watson (24), very possible shootout conditions in GB. Must win game for the Packers.
20. Mike Evans (22)
21. JuJu Smith-Schuster (23)
22. Michael Pittman (25)
23. Mike Williams (18), arguably rthe 3rd option in the passing game, is likely to see lots of Jalen Ramsey, much he just saw much of Stephon Gilmore.
24. DeAndre Hopkins (26)
Tier 7:
25. Amari Cooper (19), hasn't had a top-30 finsih since Watson came back, though he dropped a TD last week. Washington is a middling matchup.
26. DeVonta Smith (27)
27. Jerry Jeudy (29)
28. Zay Jones (28)
Tier 8:
29. Terry McLaurin (15), 0 targets once Wentz came in isn't a total fluke. McLaurin's target share skyrocketed under Heinicke, at this point, its anyone's guess who the top target is, as I'm assuming Wentz starts.
30. DJ Moore (30)
31. Adam Thielen (31)
32. Allen Lazard (32)
33. Diontae Johnson (33)
34. Hollywood Brown (34)
35. DJ Chark (35)
Tier 9:
36. Jakobi Meyers (38)
37. Drake London (37)
38. Jahan Dotson (NR)
Tier 10:
39. Gabriel Davis (NR), shootout could be brewing in Cincy, which increases Davis chances of hitting.
40. Curtis Samuel (NR)

Dropped off: Treylon Burks (36), not happening with Malik Willis. Courtland Sutton (39), not really sure what to expect with Hackett gone, but feels like Jeudy/Dulcich are ahead of him in the pecking order. Deebo Samuel (40), feel like he'll be very limited if he plays at all.
 
TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1)
Tier 2:
2. TJ Hockenson (4), its interesting, he's not really playing any better than he ever was in Detroit, and he might be the sloppiest route runner of any good pass catcher I've seen, but damn if the Vikings aren't 110% committed to making this work, and that puts his ceiling as high as anyone's, yes even Kelce's.
3. George Kittle (3)
4. Mark Andrews (2), its incredible how unproductive he's been. Like it basically defies logic, he's running more routes than any other TE, he's seeing the highest target % of any TE, and he's been getting routinely wide open, and yet he's not getting the ball enough at all. Huntley has been a disaster, and he needs Lamar, which is strange because he was better with Huntley a year earlier in a pretty decent sample size. He's too good to fade, but its tough to keep the faith. Feels like a guy where as soon as you bench him, he'll have a 7-90-2 game.
Tier 3:
5. Evan Engram (5)
6. Pat Freiermuth (6)
7. Dallas Goedert (7)
8. Dalton Schultz (9)
Tier 4:
9. David Njoku (8)
10. Gerald Everett (10)
11. Greg Dulcich (11)
12. Darren Waller (12)
Tier 5:
13. Taysom Hill (NR), TD or bust is more likely than most for a TD. Probably throwing the kitchen sink at Philly in a must win game.
14. Juwan Johnson (13)
15. Cole Kmet (14)

Dropped off: Hayden Hurst (15), likely to be limited even if playing. Bengals 4-WR sets with Trenton Irwin have been appealing.

Good luck in your championship games everyone. I hope these threads were in some way helpful to you getting there.
 
Sutton feels like a tier 6 guy to me. Can’t ignore the matchup & targets. Also Jeudy has a mildly sprained ankle, and Dulcich might be out.

For week 17 at least I like Sutton’s upside as much as most of the players in tiers 7 ~> on

I’d also bump Higgins up to 3, and Mike Williams up to tier 5, but overall I don’t have many qualms with these rankings.
 
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Jacobs against SF defense is a tough sell and an even tougher buy.

But gotta go down with the ones that got you to the title game I guess.
 
Jacobs against SF defense is a tough sell and an even tougher buy.

But gotta go down with the ones that got you to the title game I guess.
I think the Raiders know they aren't making the playoffs, so they are playing for small victories. One of those is likely, Josh Jacobs winning the rushing title. I think he'll see 25+ touches against SF regardless of the score.

Also, SF hasn't really any rushers on Jacobs level. They faced CMC and Ekeler sure, but not many big-time runners. I think something like 25-100-1 is very reasonable. Quietly, SF has given up 99 or more yards to RBs in 3 straight weeks, it was just split backfields.

Sutton feels like a tier 6 guy to me. Can’t ignore the matchup & targets. Also Jeudy has a mildly sprained ankle, and Dulcich might be out.

For week 17 at least I like Sutton’s upside as much as most of the players in tiers 7 ~> on

I’d also bump Higgins up to 3, and Mike Williams up to tier 5, but overall I don’t have many qualms with these rankings.
I thought about Higgins at the tail end of tier 3, but my logic was that I feel better about everyone in that tier, whereas I could talk myself into say, Keenan Allen over Higgins. As I pointed out in his little blurb, Higgins has TDs in 4 straight, but the yardage has been much more inconsistent.

If Jeudy and/or Dulcich are out, then Sutton would likely deserve a slight bump, but I am not very excited about him even then.

I'm worried about Williams volume, and his matchup. I think him and Evans are in similar boats where they both do their best work downfield, and neither team is doing a great job pass blocking, and the QB is more than happy to check down to the RB, or to the shorter range/intermediate WR.
 
Appreciate all the efforts...question...what more does DeVonta Smith need to do to move up just a little in these rankings?
 
Appreciate all the efforts...question...what more does DeVonta Smith need to do to move up just a little in these rankings?
I don't know. I just view last week as an anomaly. His numbers are much worse when Goedert is playing, other than last week, which was the only game this season where Philly has had to point chase and was with Minshew.

I like Smith, I really do, but I think he's often the #3 in this passing game, and with NO on the schedule, I certainly don't see the Eagles point chasing regardless of who their QB is.
 
Appreciate all the efforts...question...what more does DeVonta Smith need to do to move up just a little in these rankings?
I don't know. I just view last week as an anomaly. His numbers are much worse when Goedert is playing, other than last week, which was the only game this season where Philly has had to point chase and was with Minshew.

I like Smith, I really do, but I think he's often the #3 in this passing game, and with NO on the schedule, I certainly don't see the Eagles point chasing regardless of who their QB is.
As I said in another thread:

Brown: 80-1304-10
Smith: 79-1014-7

He's getting fed, he just doesn't make as many big plays as Brown (few do). There seems to be a lot of nitpicking and overthinking going on with him.
 
Appreciate all the efforts...question...what more does DeVonta Smith need to do to move up just a little in these rankings?
I don't know. I just view last week as an anomaly. His numbers are much worse when Goedert is playing, other than last week, which was the only game this season where Philly has had to point chase and was with Minshew.

I like Smith, I really do, but I think he's often the #3 in this passing game, and with NO on the schedule, I certainly don't see the Eagles point chasing regardless of who their QB is.
As I said in another thread:

Brown: 80-1304-10
Smith: 79-1014-7

He's getting fed, he just doesn't make as many big plays as Brown (few do). There seems to be a lot of nitpicking and overthinking going on with him.
Prior to last week's anomaly game:

Smith's 17 game pace with Goedert: 86-907-5

Smith's 17 game pace without Goedert: 85-1428-7.

That's a significant difference.

For comparison's sake here's Brown's splits:

Brown's 17 game pace with Goedert: 83-1369-11

Brown's 17 game pace without Goedert: 102-1618-14

What was Goedert's 17 game pace before going down? 81-1027-6.

Goedert being back crowds the pass catching core, and when he was out, his numbers were almost exclusively absorbed by Brown and Smith. I had both Brown and Smith higher during that timeframe. Brown was alone in tier 2, and Smith was right there with a guy like Lockett.
 

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