Travdogg's positional rankings from week 3 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

I think Allen benefitted a lot from Ekeler missing last week's game, and the Titans being a massive pass funnel. I do like the usage he has seen so far, but I think he might not be the worst sell high if someone thinks he's a true WR1. Maybe wait until after the Vikings game, but then again, one would probably get more now.

Once he got healthy last season, Allen dominated. I don't think many non-Chargers fans are aware of how good he was down the stretch last season. He is the target hog by a good margin on a team that might be a top 3 passing offense when all is said and done, and he obviously has a strong connection with Herbert.

I would definitely be a buyer with a contending dynasty team, since it may be possible to get him at a discounted price due to age. IMO he could be a championship player this season.

I mean, Allen was a 1400 yard pace during that stretch, but during the last 5 games, Mike Williams was on a 1300 yard pace.

Through 2 games, Allen holds a 19-18 target edge over Williams, despite Williams missing essentially a quarter in week 1. I think its possible Allen isn't hogging targets in the new offense as much.

ETA: Its entirely possible I'm too low on the entire offense, if the defense plays like it did against Miami.

 

[Tau837]

I think Allen benefitted a lot from Ekeler missing last week's game, and the Titans being a massive pass funnel. I do like the usage he has seen so far, but I think he might not be the worst sell high if someone thinks he's a true WR1. Maybe wait until after the Vikings game, but then again, one would probably get more now.

Once he got healthy last season, Allen dominated. I don't think many non-Chargers fans are aware of how good he was down the stretch last season. He is the target hog by a good margin on a team that might be a top 3 passing offense when all is said and done, and he obviously has a strong connection with Herbert.

I would definitely be a buyer with a contending dynasty team, since it may be possible to get him at a discounted price due to age. IMO he could be a championship player this season.

I mean, Allen was a 1400 yard pace during that stretch, but during the last 5 games, Mike Williams was on a 1300 yard pace.

Through 2 games, Allen holds a 19-18 target edge over Williams, despite Williams missing essentially a quarter in week 1. I think its possible Allen isn't hogging targets in the new offense as much.

ETA: Its entirely possible I'm too low on the entire offense, if the defense plays like it did against Miami.

I posted this in the offseason:

We all know Allen had a serious hamstring injury this season that kept him out for 7 games completely and most of 9 games. He was healthy and played full-time in weeks 11-18. Here are some metrics for that period from PFF:

• Allen had 79 targets, #2 among all WRs, behind only Justin Jefferson, who had 83.
• Allen had 60 receptions, #1 among all WRs.
• Allen had 699 receiving yards, #5 among all WRs.
• Allen had 255 yards after the catch, #5 among all WRs.
• Allen had 36 receiving first downs, #3 among all WRs.
• Allen had 4 receiving TDs, tied for #3 among all WRs.
• Allen's PFF receiving grade was 83.9, #7 among all WRs who had at least 20 targets in this 8 game span.

Also, Next Gen Stats shows that Allen's Average Separation (distance in yards measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion) was 3.6, which tied for #4 among WRs. This despite the fact that he was #58 among WRs in Average Cushion (distance in yards measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets).

That is elite performance, period. This indicates there is no sign of him slowing down yet.

Extrapolating that pace to 17 games (and ignoring the fact that he didn't play all of the week 18 game) projects to 128/1485/8.5 over 17 games. That would have been good for WR4 last season. And that was with Herbert playing injured and missing All Pro LT Slater. Also theoretically playing with a worse OC than he has now.

I realize there are issues with extrapolating, I'm just saying, he was lights out once healthy, and I don't think a lot of people realize it.

FWIW, PFF has this so far this season:

• Allen with 19 targets and a 139.6 passer rating when targeted
• Williams with 17 targets and a 92.3 passer rating when targeted

Also note that Allen was tackled at the 1 foot line in week 1. It was initially ruled a TD, then overturned. So he was that close to another TD.

Small sample size, but big disparity there. I think the target gap will widen if it continues.

 

[zoonation]

Kirk Cousins at 14? Must be an oversight. Current QB1.

 

[TampaMike19]

I think Cousins is going to have a rude awakening soon- dude is just not a 5K passer, 40 TD passer, which gets you to top 5. I can see top 10 by average PPG but think he will miss games. Sacks are going to pile up and I can see an injury occurring. They traded for Akers for a reason- they need to give their D a break and hopefully Akers can provide some type of spark for their running game. Low chance, but still.

I can also see teams limiting Vikings play volume going forward to keep Jefferson and co. off the field.

 

[zoonation]

I think Cousins is going to have a rude awakening soon- dude is just not a 5K passer, 40 TD passer, which gets you to top 5. I can see top 10 by average PPG but think he will miss games. Sacks are going to pile up and I can see an injury occurring. They traded for Akers for a reason- they need to give their D a break and hopefully Akers can provide some type of spark for their running game. Low chance, but still.

I can also see teams limiting Vikings play volume going forward to keep Jefferson and co. off the field.

I think top 10 is a lock unless he gets hurt. Having Deshaun Watson (who looks absolutely terrible) above him is bananas.

 

[wgoldsph]

As much as you've said you don't want to drop Watson because of his supposed rushing upside and the lack of Chubb, the simple fact is that if you watched him play football since he came back he's been barely playing at backup qb level. All the things that once made him special are gone. Even if he somehow manages to scoot for 500 yards (won't happen) the poor throwing stats will leave him behind statues like Goff or upside players like Howell.

 

[travdogg]

I think Cousins is going to have a rude awakening soon- dude is just not a 5K passer, 40 TD passer, which gets you to top 5. I can see top 10 by average PPG but think he will miss games. Sacks are going to pile up and I can see an injury occurring. They traded for Akers for a reason- they need to give their D a break and hopefully Akers can provide some type of spark for their running game. Low chance, but still.

I can also see teams limiting Vikings play volume going forward to keep Jefferson and co. off the field.

I think the Vikings realize they can't be this bad rushing the ball. They are the worst rushing team in the NFL in a while. Its a big reason they are 0-2. Time will tell if it gets any better (I'm skeptical) but the Akers trade suggests they'll try at least.

As much as you've said you don't want to drop Watson because of his supposed rushing upside and the lack of Chubb, the simple fact is that if you watched him play football since he came back he's been barely playing at backup qb level. All the things that once made him special are gone. Even if he somehow manages to scoot for 500 yards (won't happen) the poor throwing stats will leave him behind statues like Goff or upside players like Howell.

The rushing has still been there. Its not supposed upside, its legit, even since he came back last year, that part of his game never went away and has been consistent. Yes, the passing has taken many steps backwards, that's why he's not a top-5 guy, but 500 yards is very doable, and should be seen as more of an over/under than some outlier. That easily puts him ahead of Goff.

Howell is a little more intriguing, but I need to see more, especially on the ground (which he seems capable of) before he makes the jump. Like him a ton as a QB2 though.

 

[wgoldsph]

I think Cousins is going to have a rude awakening soon- dude is just not a 5K passer, 40 TD passer, which gets you to top 5. I can see top 10 by average PPG but think he will miss games. Sacks are going to pile up and I can see an injury occurring. They traded for Akers for a reason- they need to give their D a break and hopefully Akers can provide some type of spark for their running game. Low chance, but still.

I can also see teams limiting Vikings play volume going forward to keep Jefferson and co. off the field.

I think the Vikings realize they can't be this bad rushing the ball. They are the worst rushing team in the NFL in a while. Its a big reason they are 0-2. Time will tell if it gets any better (I'm skeptical) but the Akers trade suggests they'll try at least.

As much as you've said you don't want to drop Watson because of his supposed rushing upside and the lack of Chubb, the simple fact is that if you watched him play football since he came back he's been barely playing at backup qb level. All the things that once made him special are gone. Even if he somehow manages to scoot for 500 yards (won't happen) the poor throwing stats will leave him behind statues like Goff or upside players like Howell.

The rushing has still been there. Its not supposed upside, its legit, even since he came back last year, that part of his game never went away and has been consistent. Yes, the passing has taken many steps backwards, that's why he's not a top-5 guy, but 500 yards is very doable, and should be seen as more of an over/under than some outlier. That easily puts him ahead of Goff.

Howell is a little more intriguing, but I need to see more, especially on the ground (which he seems capable of) before he makes the jump. Like him a ton as a QB2 though.

In leagues I am in Watson's one int a game is enough to basically negate the 50 yards rushing he gains a week.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Cousins is going to have a rude awakening soon- dude is just not a 5K passer, 40 TD passer, which gets you to top 5. I can see top 10 by average PPG but think he will miss games. Sacks are going to pile up and I can see an injury occurring. They traded for Akers for a reason- they need to give their D a break and hopefully Akers can provide some type of spark for their running game. Low chance, but still.

I can also see teams limiting Vikings play volume going forward to keep Jefferson and co. off the field.

I was reading something Faust posted about Cousins having some of the most QB hits last season even though he is not a scrambler. Which is just evidence that the Vikings offensive line is not getting the job done.

The high number of hits continues so far this season.

Also some praise for Cousins anticipation with his throws, as that is required for him to get the ball out before he gets hit.

That said Cousins has been remarkably durable his whole career. I think his durability is a big reason why the Vikings gave him a record breaking contract at the time they did after dealing with injuries to Bridewater and Sam Bradford.

While its logical to think so many hits might lead to Cousins being injured, its not like this is any different than the high number of hits he has taken so far in his career, yet somehow he stays healthy anyways.

Its something that could happen on any play and logical to think all those hits add up. Just pointing out that so far he has not been seriously injured yet despite that and that history suggests to me he wont be. Or at least no reason to think the risk of that is higher than any other QB.

*knock on wood

 

[Tau837]

I predicted before the season that he will have his career best season this year if he stays healthy. So far, so good. This ranking feels pretty low IMO.

Still a long way to go but