Lamar would have easily passed that total
But he didn’t and never has. “Would haves” give you zero fantasy points.
I really don't like that logic in fantasy, because it infers that a person would just keep starting a person who wasn't playing. Per game numbers are always more important than total numbers in my opinion. In Andrews case, its not like the Ravens didn't call passing plays when Lamar was out. Lamar+Huntley had just under 4000 yards passing.
I don’t understand the Montgomery ranking at all.
when the dude making the ranking says that 20 carries and a td is a fair expectation week to week—and then proceeds to rank him as a middle tier RB2–that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If Montgomery is healthy and playing—you have to start him. I feel like every Montgomery owner feels that way. Sure—he’s bound to have a bad game here or there—but his stats, his usage, and the way his team is playing should put him as an RB1 until something changes imo.
With Montgomery its a dramatic difference in PPR and non-PPR leagues. I'm kinda splitting the difference.
With both Williams and Montgomery, I like the workloads, but I'm always a little nervous about high TD guys, who are under 4 YPC. If the workload gets even a little smaller they could both suffer a ton, and in Monty's case, he has the #12 pick behind him, though well behind him at the moment. If they can keep there workloads and TDs, then they are both too low. I have shares of both, and while I'm not necessarily looking to sell high, I do feel like they are both at their peak right now. Having said that, I could see either of them as high as 12 I guess. I strongly considered Taylor in tier 2, and having Jones down to Pacheco as tier 3. So I have no problem with someone feeling like, right now anyway, Monty is a low-end RB1.
I appreciate your lists as they clearly require a lot of work and thought—so I do want to make sure that I don’t come across as being unappreciative and disrespectful towards your work. Nothing but love for these and your efforts. With that said—I am curious about your nervousness about ranking Montgomery and Williams higher—but have no problem ranking Jonathan Taylor as an RB1 rest of the season.
The last time Jonathan Taylor played was in 2022—when he played 11 games. He had 4 total tds in 11 games—and also had 3 fumbles. In PPR leagues—in regards to his average points per game—he finished the season at RB18 averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game. In standard leagues—he finished the season as RB17 in regards to average fantasy points per game at 10.8. The last season Jonathan Taylor played—he was a middle of the pack RB2 based on average fantasy points per game.
In 2022–the Colts didn’t have a dynamic running qb that is capable of vulturing touchdowns from fantasy running backs on a consistent basis. The Colts did have Zach Moss back then—but he clearly is currently looking like a back that is deserving of some snaps even with Taylor returning. Also— Jonathan Taylor just had his first full practice in months just yesterday. We also know that he‘s unhappy with the Colts and does not want to risk potential future earnings by suffering any moderate to major injury. I don’t see him playing through any sort of injury given his circumstances. What information/data do you have that would make you feel comfortable ranking Jonathan Taylor as an RB1 the rest of the way? He wasn’t averaging RB1 numbers the last season he played when he was healthy, he hasn’t practiced until yesterday, is completely unhappy with his contract and his team, and is playing on a team that now has a running qb and another running back that has shown that he can capably produce.
I am genuinely curious. Keep in mind that I’m not bringing this up to pick on you—nor am I bringing it up to imply that Jonathan Taylor can’t or won’t be a fantasy beast this season. He certainly can—but my point is that—anybody that claims or projects that he’s an RB1 moving forward is doing so solely out of gut instinct. Nobody knows if he’s in game shape, nobody knows what kind of workload he’ll get in the new environment, nobody knows if he’s willing to play through injuries this season—but yet— somehow they feel comfortable ranking him high
Never worry about presenting a different viewpoint, I'm nowhere near sensitive enough to feel above questioning. I just ask that people present reasoning beyond, "that's stupid, so and so should be wherever." An opinion as deep and well thought out as this is always welcome.
Having said all that, I thoroughly disagree. I think 2022 is honestly kind of irrelevant for Taylor. He was playing hurt on an awful offense being coached by the least qualified HC in NFL history. He's healthy, and the offense is much better, both at QB, and especially scheme/coach.
The tradeoff from having a QB who runs like Richardson, is that while he may vulture some TDs, he'll greatly increase big play runs from Taylor (and probably already has from Moss) and I expect Taylor's YPC will be above 5 as it was in 20-21. I think sometimes people forget how great Taylor was in 2020, he ws a league winner in the second half of that season.
I don't see Taylor playing if safe, and milking injury. That idea seems odd to me, as missing games and having durability issues will only make it that much harder to get paid in the offseason. I am very much of the opinion, he works his butt off trying to get paid.
I also don't see Moss as a threat at all, at least no more than Nyhiem Hines was. I would think Moss won't get zero touches, Hines had 6 per game in 2021, but I think he's gonna be the very clear-cut backup, not 1B, backup. That's why I've never even considered Moss for the top-30, because once Taylor was back, Moss becomes a handcuff and that's all in my eyes. Moss has been RB8 PPG this year, and Taylor is a better player in every way. I actually think I might have him too low. His upside is as high as anyone after CMC (certainly higher than Kyren or Monty) and his floor was he continues to hold out, but every indication seems to be he knows that's a bad idea now. Unless he looks completely out of shape, he'll probably be higher in the ranks next week.
