Travdogg's positional rankings from week 6 onward (3 Viewers)

[bolzano]

Your weekly ROS rankings thread is perhaps my favorite contribution to this forum. So, thank you!

That said, I’m curious as to why you bumped Kittle down a tier and not Bowers, as they carry a lot of the same sort of risk. Personally, I’d rather have Kittle because he’s in a better offense, his role/ usage is more stable (IMO), and he may actually return to 100% (or close to it) sooner than Bowers.

 

[Riffraff]

Appreciate the effort.

For a 'rest of the way' type rankings (not dynasty), a couple commonalities noticed:
- Some rookie RBs still on pre-season hope. Some have actually earned it.
- Fill-in back-ups ranked over the injured starters returning.

 

[dipandglide]

Thanks for sharing!

QB

Where's Dak? Dak is QB5 in most of my leagues and hasn't had Lamb. He's been playing at an elite level and was an MVP candidate in 2023

Daniels too high. He's already banged up and doesn't have his WR1. I'd rather have Mahomes, Hurts, Dak, and I could argue a few others

RB

Why is CMC so low? Injury risk?

Skattebo is too low (PPR). He's going to catch a lot of passes and score TDs. Yes, please!

Hall is way too low. He's going to push for RB1 if he stays healthy

WR

Jefferson is too high. It pains me to say that, but JJ is likely back as the starter and he struggled to move the offense. Now might be a good time to sell high on JJ in both redraft and dynasty

Wilson WR6? I'm taking a lot of the listed options below over him

Waddle/Olave are both too low. They're getting a lot of volume and their teams should be playing catch up in a lot of games. Big weeks are coming for both of them!

TE

Kittle feels too high given his age and injury history. Is he this high due to SF not having a healthy WR core?

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I am a little surprised you still have Daniels in tier 1. Don't get me wrong I have him in both leagues so fully bought the hype, but between injuries and overall not elite performances, I figured he'd be down your list a bit.

 

[travdogg]

Your weekly ROS rankings thread is perhaps my favorite contribution to this forum. So, thank you!

That said, I’m curious as to why you bumped Kittle down a tier and not Bowers, as they carry a lot of the same sort of risk. Personally, I’d rather have Kittle because he’s in a better offense, his role/ usage is more stable (IMO), and he may actually return to 100% (or close to it) sooner than Bowers.

I think Bowers is the clear cut focal point of the Raiders passing game when he's healthy, I'm not sure Kittle is. I 100% agree with the better offense, and that he might be back before Bowers, but I also don't think he has Bowers ceiling, due to CMC, Pearsall, Jennings, and eventually Aiyuk. Bowers has Meyers, and MAYBE Tucker.They are very close though. I almost put them in the same tier but didn't think McBride and Warren deserved their own tier.

 

[travdogg]

I am a little surprised you still have Daniels in tier 1. Don't get me wrong I have him in both leagues so fully bought the hype, but between injuries and overall not elite performances, I figured he'd be down your list a bit.

I think we have seen his floor so far. He'll get Scary Terry back, and he'll get some rush TDs soon. Schedule is also gorgeous, especially the next 2 weeks against the Bears and Cowboys. If he's not putting up top-5 weeks against them, then I'll get a little concerned.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Still not sure what Sutton has to do to get respect. Dude just beat up one of the best CBs in the NFC. He’s currently a top 12 wr in my league with only one bad game.

 

[travdogg]

Thanks for sharing!

QB

Where's Dak? Dak is QB5 in most of my leagues and hasn't had Lamb. He's been playing at an elite level and was an MVP candidate in 2023

Daniels too high. He's already banged up and doesn't have his WR1. I'd rather have Mahomes, Hurts, Dak, and I could argue a few others

RB

Why is CMC so low? Injury risk?

Skattebo is too low (PPR). He's going to catch a lot of passes and score TDs. Yes, please!

Hall is way too low. He's going to push for RB1 if he stays healthy

WR

Jefferson is too high. It pains me to say that, but JJ is likely back as the starter and he struggled to move the offense. Now might be a good time to sell high on JJ in both redraft and dynasty

Wilson WR6? I'm taking a lot of the listed options below over him

Waddle/Olave are both too low. They're getting a lot of volume and their teams should be playing catch up in a lot of games. Big weeks are coming for both of them!

TE

Kittle feels too high given his age and injury history. Is he this high due to SF not having a healthy WR core?

Why should CMC be ahead of Taylor and Bijan?

Love Skattebo (I was probably his biggest fan as a prospect, as I had him as RB3 in this class) but Tracy isn't gonna just sit on the bench. Skattebo won the job, but I'm expecting him to see at least 30% of the workload, and its still a bad offense, where the QB takes a lot of the rushing.

Breece Hall has the same issues as Skattebo to me, as far as bad offense, and QB takes a lot of the rushing. But Hall isn't featured as much as a receiver. Jets defense is really bad too. I don't know that Hall has RB1 talent, but he certainly doesn't have the situation for it, unless he has a massive pass game spike, and that isn't happening with Fields. Conversely, some of the reasons I don't like Hall, are why I do like Wilson. He's the clear cut #1 option on a team that is always chasing. He's gonna be 2023 DJ Moore, but with more volume, because the Jets D isn't anywhere near as good as the Bears D was that year. Guy is gonna be the garbage time king.

I've always been a huge Olave fan. But volume is only so valuable when its coming on low ADOT in a bad offense, where there are others involved (unlike his old teammate in Wilson) until he starts getting more downfield throws, I think he tops out as a borderline WR2.

Not worried about JJ at all. Jefferson has produced with every QB he's had, and I think its incredibly too soon to just assume JJ McCarthy is just what he was the 1st 2 starts of his career going forward, especially as he was playing through a high-ankle sprain in the 2nd one. Honestly, I think its just as likely Jefferson getting McCarthy back is an upgrade for Jefferson, and maybe the whole team.

 

[Payne]

JSN not being in tier 1 is a shame. At least Warren made tier 1 this week. Only a matter of time.

No Dak or Darnold!

Dak was the last QB cutdown. Darnold wasn't even in the conversation. Darnold does enough for JSN, but he himself is whatever. Similar to Stroud/Nico.

Among all NFL QBs, Sam Darnold is 3rd in passing yards since the beginning of the 2024 season, and he’s 5th in passing TDs. The fact that Darnold’s success has come with two different teams makes it even more impressive.

To many people Darnold may still have some stink from his time in New York, but it’s time to give Sam his due. He’s played phenomenal during his reincarnation.

Darnold is a solid NFL QB. He also doesn't run and had 5 TDs in 4 games (and was averaging 226 yards) before last week's explosion. This is a run 1st offense.

If you're going to remove last week's 341-yard 4 touchdown game, then remove his week 1 performance. Can't cherry pick games.

Remove week one and he's averaging 274 yards with 2.25 TD's per game.

I don't see those as equal things. I think the week 1 game is more what Seattle is/wants to be than week 5. Seattle wants to be a run 1st, win with defense team. The defense (secondary really) was just missing too many guys last week, and Seattle got drawn into a shootout because of it. None of those guys are on IR or anything, so I think week 5 is a lot more of a one off than week 1 was.

This is fair.

However, it was Darnold's 1st week. Walker was possibly not 100%.
The team and Darnold are finding their grove. And while they may WANT to run, they have found good success through the air.

First 5 weeks:
150 yards and 0 TD's
295 yards and 2 TD's
218 yards and 2 TD's
242 yards and a TD
341 yards and 4 TD's

It seems if any week was a one off it was week 1.

 

[dipandglide]

Thanks for sharing!

QB

Where's Dak? Dak is QB5 in most of my leagues and hasn't had Lamb. He's been playing at an elite level and was an MVP candidate in 2023

Daniels too high. He's already banged up and doesn't have his WR1. I'd rather have Mahomes, Hurts, Dak, and I could argue a few others

RB

Why is CMC so low? Injury risk?

Skattebo is too low (PPR). He's going to catch a lot of passes and score TDs. Yes, please!

Hall is way too low. He's going to push for RB1 if he stays healthy

WR

Jefferson is too high. It pains me to say that, but JJ is likely back as the starter and he struggled to move the offense. Now might be a good time to sell high on JJ in both redraft and dynasty

Wilson WR6? I'm taking a lot of the listed options below over him

Waddle/Olave are both too low. They're getting a lot of volume and their teams should be playing catch up in a lot of games. Big weeks are coming for both of them!

TE

Kittle feels too high given his age and injury history. Is he this high due to SF not having a healthy WR core?

Why should CMC be ahead of Taylor and Bijan?

Love Skattebo (I was probably his biggest fan as a prospect, as I had him as RB3 in this class) but Tracy isn't gonna just sit on the bench. Skattebo won the job, but I'm expecting him to see at least 30% of the workload, and its still a bad offense, where the QB takes a lot of the rushing.

Breece Hall has the same issues as Skattebo to me, as far as bad offense, and QB takes a lot of the rushing. But Hall isn't featured as much as a receiver. Jets defense is really bad too. I don't know that Hall has RB1 talent, but he certainly doesn't have the situation for it, unless he has a massive pass game spike, and that isn't happening with Fields. Conversely, some of the reasons I don't like Hall, are why I do like Wilson. He's the clear cut #1 option on a team that is always chasing. He's gonna be 2023 DJ Moore, but with more volume, because the Jets D isn't anywhere near as good as the Bears D was that year. Guy is gonna be the garbage time king.

I've always been a huge Olave fan. But volume is only so valuable when its coming on low ADOT in a bad offense, where there are others involved (unlike his old teammate in Wilson) until he starts getting more downfield throws, I think he tops out as a borderline WR2.

Not worried about JJ at all. Jefferson has produced with every QB he's had, and I think its incredibly too soon to just assume JJ McCarthy is just what he was the 1st 2 starts of his career going forward, especially as he was playing through a high-ankle sprain in the 2nd one. Honestly, I think its just as likely Jefferson getting McCarthy back is an upgrade for Jefferson, and maybe the whole team.

CMC catches a ton of passes. This is huge in PPR and raises RBs floors a ton

Skatt with three TDs tonight so far. I'm going to stand by what I said: "he's going to catch passes and score TDs". Who cares if Tracy siphons off 25-30% touches. Not all touches are equal and Skatt will get the highest value one in the redzone

Hall can break big plays, and he catches passes. He can carry the load. That is a good combo and he has an RB1 ceiling (we've seen it!)

Isn't Olave in the top five in XFP (expected fantasy points) for WRs? He's had bad variance so far and will regress to the mean. Big games are coming!

I can't disagree about JJ. I'm less confident in that take. It's hard to bet against him.


Again, thank you for sharing and replying with your thoughts!

 

[rockaction]

JSN not being in tier 1 is a shame. At least Warren made tier 1 this week. Only a matter of time.

No Dak or Darnold!

Dak was the last QB cutdown. Darnold wasn't even in the conversation. Darnold does enough for JSN, but he himself is whatever. Similar to Stroud/Nico.

Among all NFL QBs, Sam Darnold is 3rd in passing yards since the beginning of the 2024 season, and he’s 5th in passing TDs. The fact that Darnold’s success has come with two different teams makes it even more impressive.

To many people Darnold may still have some stink from his time in New York, but it’s time to give Sam his due. He’s played phenomenal during his reincarnation.

Darnold is a solid NFL QB. He also doesn't run and had 5 TDs in 4 games (and was averaging 226 yards) before last week's explosion. This is a run 1st offense.

If you're going to remove last week's 341-yard 4 touchdown game, then remove his week 1 performance. Can't cherry pick games.

Remove week one and he's averaging 274 yards with 2.25 TD's per game.

I’m not one to defend travdogg blindly nor critique you for the heck of it, but I see one important distinction to make and one statistic that can be cited in defense of eliminating the last game.

The distinction is that this exercise is a predictive exercise. We’re trying to forecast and not recap. If a person thinks that, say, Seattle runs their offense a certain way and that the way they run it happens to be running the ball on neutral downs—and here I think they do and certainly will until a few more games like this from Sam (and even then I don’t think it’s Macdonald’s preference to ever throw the ball a lot no matter how good his QB is) then you might downgrade Darnold appropriately.

And here is the one statistic I spoke of: Seattle is 32nd in pass attempts over expectation. That is, given a down and distance and time of game and score, we have historical data about what a team will do. Actually there’s more data than just that and there is a model for whether or not a pass or run is more likely to happen. Here are the factors the model considers. It is called “dropbacks" because they include attempted passes that become sacks (and I think scrambles):

Open Source Football: nflfastR EP, WP, CP xYAC, and xPass models

A description of the nflfastR Expected Points (EP), Win Probability (WP), Completion Probability (CP) Expected Yards after Catch (xYAC), and Expected Pass (xPass) models.

opensourcefootball.com

Darnold is 21st Weeks 1-4 in my 6pt. passing TD league. He’s now 13th.

Given all of this, it looks like travdogg’s throwing Game Five out given what this exercise is and what happened seems not only fair, but prudent and correct.

Things might change, and I’m hesitant say things are ironclad in Weeks 1-4, but we have evidence to support the conclusion trav made.