Travdogg's positional rankings from week 9 onward (4 Viewers)

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Patrick Mahomes (1), 1 game under 23 points all season, and he's got all his weapons healthy finally. He's actually on pace for a career best season, with the caveat that they only played 16 games in 2018.
2. Lamar Jackson (2)
3. Josh Allen (3)

Tier 2:
4. Jalen Hurts (4)
5. Jayden Daniels (5)
6. Drake Maye (7), currently QB4 PPG, just looks amazing. Say what you will about McDaniels as a HC, he's one of the best OCs of the last 25 years. Maye seemingly has one long bucket drop TD every game, on top of consistent rushing production. On pace for 4300-32 passing, and 500-4 rushing. Also combining a 9 YPA (elite, 2nd in the NFL) with 75% completions (1st) would be in the MVP conversation, but Mahomes is back.

Tier 3:
7. Justin Herbert (8)
8. Bo Nix (12), QB7 PPG, he's recovered after a poor start. Also wonder if they may need even more from him, with Surtain looking like a possible IR candidate.
9. Jordan Love (NR), I'm hoping Green Bay is seeing what I'm seeing, that when Love throws 30+ times, the offense is better for it. He's not the guy who needs to be protected anymore, and he's getting WRs back (Watson last week, Reed soon) this is more on vibes than numbers.

Tier 4:
10. Daniel Jones (11)
11. Baker Mayfield (9)
12. Caleb Williams (10)
13. Jared Goff (NR), looking ahead on the schedule, I bumped Goff up a bit due to 5 games against bottom 8 pass defenses. Also, all but 2 remaining games are indoors.
14. Brock Purdy (14)
15. Dak Prescott (6), resisted bumping him up for so long, then of course when I finally give in, he has the exact game I was waiting for. He's a better version of Stafford. Better for his weapons than himself.

Dropped off: Matthew Stafford (13), looking at it more closely, I think I over bumped him off his 5-TD game. He's fine, but he's better for his WRs than he is for himself. Jaxson Dart (15), the rushing is very nice, but I'm worried about the entire offense going forward. Felt like Skattebo was the guy the team fed off of. I don't think nearly as high of Tracy, and think teams are gonna be really sitting on him rushing going forward.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Jonathan Taylor (1)
2. Christian McCaffrey (3)
3. James Cook (7), RB6 dating back to week 9 of last season. It sometimes feels like he's starting to challenge Josh Allen for who the offense runs through. Right there with Taylor in yards and big plays, just not as many TDs. Pass game usage is somewhat confusing, as its something he does really well, but I guess if you want to keep him fresh, I'd rather he lose those touches than GL ones.

Tier 2:
4. Bijan Robinson (2), schedule gets a bit harder in the season's 2nd half, and while obviously I'm not dropping him too far, I feel like his offense is less trustworthy than the tier 1 guys. Falcons now have 10 or fewer points in 3 of 7 games.
5. Jahmyr Gibbs (4)
6. Josh Jacobs (6)

Tier 3:
7. De'Von Achane (5)
8. Javonte Williams (11), he's getting tier 1 usage, he's just not as explosive as those guys. Been arguably the best RB value this season, and is a TD machine, with 9 in 8 games. None of this is a fluke.
9. Saquon Barkley (10)
10. Derrick Henry (9)
11. Bucky Irving (14)

Tier 4:
12. Ashton Jeanty (8), he's gonna be boom/bust, but he's RB16 PPG, and could be even more of a focus coming out of the bye. 8 was just too high though.
13. Kyren Williams (15)
14. D'Andre Swift (16)

Tier 5:
15. Omarion Hampton (17)
16. Quinshon Judkins (12), sprained AC joint, doesn't sound too serious. More serious concerns are his cratering YPC since Gabriel took over. 4.8 with Flacco, 3.6 with Gabriel.
17. Jaylen Warren (18)
18. Breece Hall (25), Hall has become a pretty predictable boom/bust RB2. 100+ yards against bad defenses, shut down by good ones. Still think a trade would be the best thing that could happen to him, but assuming he isn't, he'll be a victim to an up and down schedule after the bye. He was the biggest reason they finally won a game though.
19. Travis Etienne (22)

Tier 6:
20. Chase Brown (20)
21. JK Dobbins (21)
22. Rico Dowdle (26), in a 50-50 split with Hubbard, but its clear Dowdle is playing better, and even Canales has admitted as such. Carolina is basically more run heavy Seattle.

Tier 7:
23. Jordan Mason (19)
24. Kenneth Walker (23)
25. Chuba Hubbard (27)
26. David Montgomery (NR), RB23 PPG, he's been very boom/bust, as Gibbs has become clear #1 as expected. Still has possibly unmatched contingent upside.

Tier 8:
27. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (24)
28. Zach Charbonnet (NR), RB27 due to getting in the endzone in every healthy game. No ceiling without Walker injury, but great guy to have as an RB3.
29. Alvin Kamara (30)
30. Rhamondre Stevenson (28)

Dropped off: Woody Marks (29), still taking a bit of a backseat to Chubb in the run game, he's clearly the pass catcher of choice, but full trail scripts aren't bankable with a great defense. He was the last omission.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Rashee Rice (6), only Ja'Marr Chase has seen better usage the last 2 weeks, and Flacco gives me Cinderella approaching Midnight vibes. Rice could easily have had 5 TDs the last 2 games. Mahomes looks back to MVP form, and Rice is the clear focal point of the pass game. He was always gonna move up to this tier for me, but I just keep coming back to, would I rather trust Stafford/Darnold, or Mahomes?
2. Puka Nacua (2)
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1)

Tier 2:
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (3)
5. Ja'Marr Chase (4)
6. Justin Jefferson (5)
7. Emeka Egbuka (7)
8. Davante Adams (11)
9. George Pickens (16), been really watching Dallas closely, and I keep coming back to thinking Pickens might be better than Lamb, at least post ankle Lamb. He gets the deeper shots, and Lamb's only edge these 2 weeks has been a long TD where the defenders ran into each other. Ultimately, I don't think the offense can support everyone every week, especially with Williams taking so many TDs, but I slightly prefer Pickens big play game, as someone with shares of everyone involved.

Tier 3:
10. CeeDee Lamb (9)
11. Drake London (10)
12. Garrett Wilson (8), WR13 in PPG (and that's counting a game he left early) I think he and London are pretty similar, in that it won't always be pretty, but targets are gonna be there, especially in the redzone. Downgrade slightly, because I think Fields probably just got the job back, and while that is probably better for the Jets, its probably not for Wilson.
13. Rome Odunze (12)

Tier 4:
14. DK Metcalf (17)
15. Michael Pittman (28), doing great work in the possession game. Has 5+ catches in 6 of 8 games, and those were the only games he didn't score a TD in. On a 90-900-13 pace.
16. Nico Collins (13)
17. Ladd McConkey (20)
18. AJ Brown (14)
19. Jaylen Waddle (23)
20. Jordan Addison (27), has 114 yards or a TD in all 4 games since his return from suspension and has clearly left Hockenson in the dust as the #2, and has basically been even with Jefferson in that timeframe (though that's asking a lot to continue) I think McCarthy can absolutely be as productive as Wentz (or much better) and is being unjustly judged off 8 quarters, 2 of which he was playing through a high ankle sprain, on basically no sleep, since he'd missed practice that week with his wife giving birth.

Tier 5:
21. Brian Thomas (15)
22. Tetairoa McMillan (19)
23. Chris Olave (18), been a solid WR2, but I think NO is downgrading at QB. Rattler had proven he could make some plays, even if he's probably an NFL backup. Shough was a confusing prospect to me. He looked like a day 3 guy to me, even without counting his age or injury history. How he went top-40 was truly baffling to me. I worry he could "Dillon Gabriel" this passing game, but I'll give Olave the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully Olave gets traded.
24. Courtland Sutton (22)
25. Quentin Johnston (26)

Tier 6:
26. DeVonta Smith (32), WR5 over the last 4 weeks, some of that has been aided by no AJ or Surtain treatment AJ. Still, Smith is an ideal WR3, who can pop off at any time, and the Eagles have been passing a lot more than they did late last year, and early this year.
27. Tee Higgins (25)
28. Marvin Harrison (24)
29. Zay Flowers (29)
30. Deebo Samuel (21), WR25 PPG, with extremely boom/bust stats. 3 of 7 games, he's had 15 or fewer receiving yards. Also has 3 games with 81+ yards and a TD. Can't imagine McLaurin being back being a help, unless that means more RB snaps.

Tier 7:
31. Terry McLaurin (30)
32. Wan'Dale Robinson (33)
33. Keenan Allen (31), offense is extremely crowded with Gadsden emerging, and to me, Allen is the one with the lowest ceiling. He's still WR3 worthy, but he'll be the odd man out a fair share too.
34. Ricky Pearsall (34)

Tier 8:
35. Travis Hunter (35)
36. Stefon Diggs (37)
37. Xavier Worthy (38)
38. DJ Moore (40)
39. Jameson Williams (39)
40. Khalil Shakir (NR), clearly their best WR, WR38 PPG, but also came into the season banged up. Has much higher upside if he can crack more 2-WR sets, which may be happening with no Palmer.

Dropped off: Tre Tucker (36), ranking was heavily influenced by potential Meyers trade. If rumors they want a day 2 pick are true, Meyers isn't going anywhere.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Trey McBride (3)
2. Tyler Warren (2)
3. Tucker Kraft (6), 19 targets the last 2 weeks. Are they finally figuring out that Kraft is the guy the pass game should be built around? Has double digit PPR points in all but 1 game, and TDs in all but 2, so even if not, he's earned the bump, but if they have, #1 is well within reach.

Tier 2:
4. George Kittle (5)
5. Brock Bowers (4)
6. Jake Ferguson (1), got too high on Dak, and this was exactly where. He and Lamb operate in the same area a lot, and Lamb is the clear priority. He'll bounce back, but a reminder about TD reliance, and not assuming best cases for offenses.

Tier 3:
7. Dallas Goedert (7)
8. Sam LaPorta (10)
9. Orande Gadsden (13), been incredibly impressive the last 2 (really 3) weeks. Has tier 2 upside, but Chargers are a crowded pass game. Gut says, he's due for a quiet week, while Johnston or Allen bounce back.

Tier 4:
10. Dalton Kincaid (8)
11. Travis Kelce (9)
12. Kyle Pitts (14)
13. Darren Waller (11)
14. Mark Andrews (NR), 100% on vibes here, as I think Andrews is still Lamar's favorite option in the redzone. Had a 6-91-2 game with Lamar in week 3 but was invisible other than that. Still, TE is such, that I'll chase that if I'm desperate. Similar reason to still having Waller on the list despite the IR stint, I don't really care about guys who will get me 4-35. I want guys who can have top-5 weeks.
15. Harold Fannin (15)

Dropped off: Hunter Henry (12), got a TD on his only catch at least, but he's been losing his luster for a while now. Those Raiders and Steelers games were both pre-Diggs return, and pre-big play Maye.

 

[FarFromHome]

Luv u buddy

Stafford 1st in tds and 7th in yards, yet dropped off? This guy key your car of something? Ha ha

Love the Rice call. Can't really argue it.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Dak seems like a knee-jerk overreaction. It was Denver.
Chase Brown not moving up after that week seems odd

 

[efactor]

Dak seems like a knee-jerk overreaction. It was Denver.

Plus he had a couple PI penalties in the end zone and Williams ended up running it in from the 1. Plus Schoomakeer got tackled inside the 1 and Williams ran that in too. Didn't see Ferguson for an easy one from the 2 on the first drive and forced it into CeeDee. Easily could have been a 3 TD game.

Dak is a top 8 at worst ROS IMO and if he finished top 5, I wouldn't be shocked.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Love the lists man!

I personally feel like you’re too low on Chase Brown, Lamb and Fannin. Also too high on Daniels.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Also the schedule for Judkins looks super juicy after the bye. I think his YPC will rebound nicely.

 

[Tau837]

7. Justin Herbert (8)

Seems a bit low to me. I play in 4 leagues. Herbert is QB5 in ppg in two of them, QB6 in another, and QB7 in the other. He has survived:

• LT1 Slater missing 100% of snaps
• RT1/LT2 Alt missing 48% of snaps
• LG1 Becton missing 42% of snaps
• RT2 Pipkins missing 47% of snaps
• RB1 Hampton missing 3 games
• RB2 Harris missing 5 games
• TE1 Dissly missing 4 games
• TE2 Conklin has been a bust and is now seemingly benched

The Chargers have played 9 OL at least 111 offensive snaps this season, and Slater is obviously not included in that group.

But Alt, Pipkins, and Dissly are back, and Gadsden has emerged to replace Conklin. Becton should play more going forward, and Hampton should be back at some point. Tre Harris is an improving rookie WR.

That is a lot of positives. IMO Herbert deserves to be in your Tier 2.

8. Bo Nix (12), QB7 PPG, he's recovered after a poor start. Also wonder if they may need even more from him, with Surtain looking like a possible IR candidate.

Has he, or is there a circumstantial element to it? Here is his season, using opponent's rank against QBs each week from MFL:

1. 14.6 vs. TEN (14)
2. 24.3 at IND (23)
3. 14.95 at LAC (5)
4. 31.0 vs CIN (27)
5. 19.3 at PHI (16)
6. 15.1 at NYJ (19)
7. 40.75 vs NYG (29)
8. 28.35 vs DAL (32)

To me, it looks like he has scored well against defenses that don't defend fantasy QBs well and poorly against those that do. It so happens that the past 2 weeks he played at home against 2 of the worst 4 QB defenses in the league, and it boosted his performance. Not much of a surprise there.

As of now, here are the ranks of the QB defenses he still has to face: 1, 20, 6, 25, 20, 15, 30, 6, 5. That does not look favorable given this is a rest of season ranking. IMO you had him ranked more appropriately last week, when he was down a tier.

FWIW, PFF has graded 35 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this season. Their grade for Nix ranks #17. Seems about right to me. (BTW, Herbert's grade is #3.)

 

[travdogg]

Luv u buddy

Stafford 1st in tds and 7th in yards, yet dropped off? This guy key your car of something? Ha ha

Love the Rice call. Can't really argue it.

I feel like the TDs are skewed by that 5 TD game against the Jags. Stafford is 10th in PPG and adds nothing as a rusher. If I went past 15, I'd have had him in that 4th tier, but I think all those other guys (with the possible exception of Goff) have a higher ceiling. I think Stafford has run a little pure on TDs, and I don't know if that continues to this extent.

The scary thing about Rice, is he's been leaving a good amount on the table, and in theory, his snaps will only increase. Its a little bold to put a guy with such a small sample size compared to everyone else so high, but I'm really curious what happens in a game script where KC isn't in control throughout like they have been these past 2 weeks.

 

[ponchsox]

Flowers at 29 seems very low with Lamar coming back.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Having followed these for awhile now, I do feel that your big movers are those you feel 'something' about; one way or the other. Rashee & Dak are good examples.

Dak had a bad game against DEN, and while they are a good defense...I think they've not been top tier like they were last year, particularly in the takeaway department. But, he's still on pace for a 4400/34/11 season based on a first half that saw him lose his WR1 for 3-4 games. I do get the sense that you felt burned by last week though, so down he goes. The reality is that the delta between QB6-15 feels quite minimal and I think the bigger takeaway is that there should probably be just two tiers for QB's.

I'd be interested in understanding your reasoning on Puka/JSN ranking changes with both on a bye last week. But on a deeper level, if we're moving Rashee up on 2 games of data (19/16/147/3 - including rushing yards in the yards)...JSN's last two games are 27/16/285/2. Obviously they're your rankings and you see something, but this feels premature. My opinion on KC is that as teams adjust to defending Rice, that probably opens up the downfield game where Rice is a secondary beneficiary. But In SEA, it's the JSN show anywhere on the field.

Justin Jefferson. It's weird how certain narratives stick...and others get forgotten. Prior to 2024, a lot of people worried about JJetta because of Darnold/JJM. But Darnold emerged as a legit QB and JJetta had a great season. And so the thought process was...well now that he's proven he doesn't need a legit QB like Kirk Cousins, he's more bulletproof than we thought. But...Week 3 saw MIN destroy the suddenly Burrowless Bengals. Wentz had 20 attempts. MIN QB's have been averaging 38 attempts since...and for as much care as MIN has taken bringing JJM back...his two games saw him attempt but 41 passes total; without Addison on the field. 6 feels precarious. JJetta would be my biggest 'sell high' at the moment.

Good on you for inching Ladd back up there. Funny how early season narratives have a way of sticking and that 1/11/0 game really scared people off. But he's 3rd in the NFL in targets/game the last 4 weeks with 3 TD's.

One big omission you have though is Kayshon Boutte.

But great job as always!

 

[travdogg]

Chase Brown not moving up after that week seems odd

Honestly, I kind of think Brown is a bit of a sell high after last week. Sure he topped 100 yards and had 2 TDs, but the bigger takeaway to me is that Perine is getting more work than ever. It was a 55-45 split between Brown and Perine, where it was like 75-25 the first month. I do have concerns that the team has decided Brown isn't a bell cow if they can help it (where last year they had little choice) he's averaged 10 carries and 3 targets since Flacco took over, and I have a lot of rug pull concerns about Flacco as well.

 

[travdogg]

Dak seems like a knee-jerk overreaction. It was Denver.

Plus he had a couple PI penalties in the end zone and Williams ended up running it in from the 1. Plus Schoomakeer got tackled inside the 1 and Williams ran that in too. Didn't see Ferguson for an easy one from the 2 on the first drive and forced it into CeeDee. Easily could have been a 3 TD game.

Dak is a top 8 at worst ROS IMO and if he finished top 5, I wouldn't be shocked.

I wouldn't be shocked if Dak got hot again and finished top-8. I am inclined to think he got hot weeks 4-7, and that's closer to the ceiling.

I'd love to be wrong. I have 5 teams overall, 1 has Dak, 1 has Javonte, 1 has Pickens, 2 have Lamb, and 2 have Ferguson, so I'd love if Dallas scored 50 every week, but I feel like we've seen this movie before with Dak, where he gets hot, and then comes back to earth.

I think he'll be fine, he's currently QB9 PPG (so top-8 at worst is probably optimistic being that he's not there through 8 games) but I don't think he runs enough to be a top-5 guy anymore. Even top-8 is gonna require a pretty pure run of elite play (which he has done for much of this season) I guess this is a little of the "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" fallacy.

 

[travdogg]

Love the lists man!

I personally feel like you’re too low on Chase Brown, Lamb and Fannin. Also too high on Daniels.

Also the schedule for Judkins looks super juicy after the bye. I think his YPC will rebound nicely.

Fannin will absolutely move up if Njoku is traded. Ideally for both of them, a trade happens. If it doesn't though, its not enough passing production to afford being able to be split close to 50-50. LOVE Fannin in dynasty though. This is looking like an amazing rookie TE class, and I think Loveland is a big-time talent as well, and Taylor has some ability too.

Speaking of the Browns, while I like Judkins schedule, I just think its too easy to take him out of games, without the threat of downfield throws. He's been impressive, but he doesn't catch passes, and is reliant on TDs (which he's probably close to 50-50 to get) and volume, which he loses in chase scripts. I think he'll have some big weeks, but they'll be offset by some down ones too, which is why I have him as an RB2.

I think the ceiling that Lamb once had is gone. There's too much talent other than him to hit 2023 totals again. I think he'll be fine, I just think he's more of a low-end WR1, like he was before 2023, when there was more target competition. I also think this is less Chase/Higgins than we thought with him and Pickens, and more a better version of Lockett/DK, where the #1 is more week to week, than clear hierarchy.

As I'm sure everyone is aware by now, I love me a running QB (particularly when it accentuates a QB, and isn't all they do) so Daniels will be a guy I'm very stubborn about dropping too far. He's put up at least 17 in every game so far, despite missing almost half of 1 of them. I actually think he's not a bad buy-low.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Dak seems like a knee-jerk overreaction. It was Denver.

Plus he had a couple PI penalties in the end zone and Williams ended up running it in from the 1. Plus Schoomakeer got tackled inside the 1 and Williams ran that in too. Didn't see Ferguson for an easy one from the 2 on the first drive and forced it into CeeDee. Easily could have been a 3 TD game.

Dak is a top 8 at worst ROS IMO and if he finished top 5, I wouldn't be shocked.

I wouldn't be shocked if Dak got hot again and finished top-8. I am inclined to think he got hot weeks 4-7, and that's closer to the ceiling.

I'd love to be wrong. I have 5 teams overall, 1 has Dak, 1 has Javonte, 1 has Pickens, 2 have Lamb, and 2 have Ferguson, so I'd love if Dallas scored 50 every week, but I feel like we've seen this movie before with Dak, where he gets hot, and then comes back to earth.

I think he'll be fine, he's currently QB9 PPG (so top-8 at worst is probably optimistic being that he's not there through 8 games) but I don't think he runs enough to be a top-5 guy anymore. Even top-8 is gonna require a pretty pure run of elite play (which he has done for much of this season) I guess this is a little of the "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" fallacy.

he definitely might end up being more matchup-dependent than auto-start, but drop 9 spots behind Goff, Purdy, Caleb? Too much.

 

[travdogg]

7. Justin Herbert (8)

Seems a bit low to me. I play in 4 leagues. Herbert is QB5 in ppg in two of them, QB6 in another, and QB7 in the other. He has survived:

• LT1 Slater missing 100% of snaps
• RT1/LT2 Alt missing 48% of snaps
• LG1 Becton missing 42% of snaps
• RT2 Pipkins missing 47% of snaps
• RB1 Hampton missing 3 games
• RB2 Harris missing 5 games
• TE1 Dissly missing 4 games
• TE2 Conklin has been a bust and is now seemingly benched

The Chargers have played 9 OL at least 111 offensive snaps this season, and Slater is obviously not included in that group.

But Alt, Pipkins, and Dissly are back, and Gadsden has emerged to replace Conklin. Becton should play more going forward, and Hampton should be back at some point. Tre Harris is an improving rookie WR.

That is a lot of positives. IMO Herbert deserves to be in your Tier 2.

8. Bo Nix (12), QB7 PPG, he's recovered after a poor start. Also wonder if they may need even more from him, with Surtain looking like a possible IR candidate.

Has he, or is there a circumstantial element to it? Here is his season, using opponent's rank against QBs each week from MFL:

1. 14.6 vs. TEN (14)
2. 24.3 at IND (23)
3. 14.95 at LAC (5)
4. 31.0 vs CIN (27)
5. 19.3 at PHI (16)
6. 15.1 at NYJ (19)
7. 40.75 vs NYG (29)
8. 28.35 vs DAL (32)

To me, it looks like he has scored well against defenses that don't defend fantasy QBs well and poorly against those that do. It so happens that the past 2 weeks he played at home against 2 of the worst 4 QB defenses in the league, and it boosted his performance. Not much of a surprise there.

As of now, here are the ranks of the QB defenses he still has to face: 1, 20, 6, 25, 20, 15, 30, 6, 5. That does not look favorable given this is a rest of season ranking. IMO you had him ranked more appropriately last week, when he was down a tier.

FWIW, PFF has graded 35 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this season. Their grade for Nix ranks #17. Seems about right to me. (BTW, Herbert's grade is #3.)

Totally hear you with Herbert, he's QB6 PPG in my leagues, and I wouldn't have a major issue with him being in tier 2. I just think there is a divide between him and the tier 2 guys but can see one with the tier 3 guys as well. I loathe 1 person tiers, but Herbert is perhaps somewhere in between. I do wonder if Hampton's eventual return sucks some volume from Herbert. As I've seen you agree in the Hampton thread, Vidal is doing a great job filling in, but Hampton is a clearly better RB.

In Nix's case, with regards to the PFF grade, he's greatly improved after starting the year in Jake Browning territory, and I saw that the first couple games as well. He singlehandedly almost blew the Titans game in week 1 and was the main reason they lost to the Chargers. He's been fairly solid since then, particularly in the 2nd half of games. That's more what I referring to in the "he's recovered after a poor start" statement. I also think Troy Franklin is stepping up a bit (he was in the 50 to 40 cutdown for me) and I think Denver may need to increase their pass game with the defense likely taking a step back without Surtain, who sounds like an IR candidate. I do agree his best games have come against bad defenses, but I do feel that's not the only reason for his numbers improving. Like I said earlier though, its perfectly understandable if you think Nix and Herbert shouldn't be in the same tier.

 

[travdogg]

Flowers at 29 seems very low with Lamar coming back.

It could prove to be. I'm mildly concerned that his early season breakout was just small sample size theater, especially as Buffalo has proven to at times be a very leaky secondary. Flowers isn't a factor in the redzone, so he needs big plays or high volume to be more than a WR2, and if he doesn't get at least one of those, then he's more of a WR3. This is a hedge, and its possible he'll move up a lot if Lamar features him like he did in week 1 more.

 

[travdogg]

Having followed these for awhile now, I do feel that your big movers are those you feel 'something' about; one way or the other. Rashee & Dak are good examples.

Dak had a bad game against DEN, and while they are a good defense...I think they've not been top tier like they were last year, particularly in the takeaway department. But, he's still on pace for a 4400/34/11 season based on a first half that saw him lose his WR1 for 3-4 games. I do get the sense that you felt burned by last week though, so down he goes. The reality is that the delta between QB6-15 feels quite minimal and I think the bigger takeaway is that there should probably be just two tiers for QB's.

I'd be interested in understanding your reasoning on Puka/JSN ranking changes with both on a bye last week. But on a deeper level, if we're moving Rashee up on 2 games of data (19/16/147/3 - including rushing yards in the yards)...JSN's last two games are 27/16/285/2. Obviously they're your rankings and you see something, but this feels premature. My opinion on KC is that as teams adjust to defending Rice, that probably opens up the downfield game where Rice is a secondary beneficiary. But In SEA, it's the JSN show anywhere on the field.

Justin Jefferson. It's weird how certain narratives stick...and others get forgotten. Prior to 2024, a lot of people worried about JJetta because of Darnold/JJM. But Darnold emerged as a legit QB and JJetta had a great season. And so the thought process was...well now that he's proven he doesn't need a legit QB like Kirk Cousins, he's more bulletproof than we thought. But...Week 3 saw MIN destroy the suddenly Burrowless Bengals. Wentz had 20 attempts. MIN QB's have been averaging 38 attempts since...and for as much care as MIN has taken bringing JJM back...his two games saw him attempt but 41 passes total; without Addison on the field. 6 feels precarious. JJetta would be my biggest 'sell high' at the moment.

Good on you for inching Ladd back up there. Funny how early season narratives have a way of sticking and that 1/11/0 game really scared people off. But he's 3rd in the NFL in targets/game the last 4 weeks with 3 TD's.

One big omission you have though is Kayshon Boutte.

But great job as always!

I'll start with Boutte. He was in the 50-40 cutdown. He and Diggs will probably both get small bumps if/when the trade deadline passes without a WR addition by NE. They've seemed to be the most rumored team. NE has been linked to everyone from AJ Brown (probably a pipe dream) to Jakobi Meyers (is he an upgrade?) to the NO WRs (Olave would be especially interesting with Maye)

Fully agree, a lot of times movement is based on hunches and feels, and sometimes with utilization and evidence too. The Puka/JSN swap is the former. I just feel better about the Rams offense than Seattle's, and I try to tackle these ranks as a fluid weekly reassessment rather than only changing something when something big happens.

I feel like I've been pretty consistent with the Chargers WRs. Its a slight crap shoot, but with varying odds of hitting. I've been pretty confident McConkey was the guy to own all along, and was advocating buying low a month ago. Likewise, I kind of see Johnston as a decent buy-low right now.

Jefferson is interesting. Personally, I think I'd argue he might be the NFL's best WR, but obviously he's not in the NFL's best situation, far from it. He's WR16 PPG right now, and actually behind Addison in PPG at the moment. That said, he hasn't really had a bad game yet, he's had 74+ yards or a TD in every game. His worst PPR week is 12.5. Might mean nothing, but his 1 TD this season, was from McCarthy. I'm reticent to move an elite player too low, especially because I still think there is a chance McCarthy is good, but we'll see about that.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'll start with Boutte. He was in the 50-40 cutdown. He and Diggs will probably both get small bumps if/when the trade deadline passes without a WR addition by NE. They've seemed to be the most rumored team. NE has been linked to everyone from AJ Brown (probably a pipe dream) to Jakobi Meyers (is he an upgrade?) to the NO WRs (Olave would be especially interesting with Maye)

In alot of ways, Boutte was the black sheep of the LSU WR Alumni Association because of the steep drop off he had his final year there. But he had been seen prior to that as a legit 1st round talent on par with his brethren. He's even spoken of his need back then to mature and approach his craft differently. IMO, he has and it's showing on the field

Jefferson is interesting. Personally, I think I'd argue he might be the NFL's best WR, but obviously he's not in the NFL's best situation, far from it. He's WR16 PPG right now, and actually behind Addison in PPG at the moment. That said, he hasn't really had a bad game yet, he's had 74+ yards or a TD in every game. His worst PPR week is 12.5. Might mean nothing, but his 1 TD this season, was from McCarthy. I'm reticent to move an elite player too low, especially because I still think there is a chance McCarthy is good, but we'll see about that.

The reality though of FF is that at the RB/WR positions, you need a discernible path to TD's if you're going to be ranked in that Top 7-8 range, perhaps even lower. In JJetta's career, MIN has thrown for 35/34/30/30/35 TD's. That TD pace is a big ask moving forward in 2025 IMO.