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Trend watch: Is power offense making a comeback? (1 Viewer)

bjabrad

Footballguy
http://www.nfl.com/news/story;jsessionid=5...mp;confirm=true

Posted: 05/19/2008

Trend watch: Is power offense making a comeback?

By Pat Kirwan | NFL.com

Senior Analyst

May and June are considered the quiet months in the NFL, but there are still plenty of interesting developments to ponder and look forward to. Lets' tackle a few…

Will bigger be better?

As we continue to see defenses get faster and more athletic to handle all the matchup problems offenses throw at them, perhaps it is time for offenses to try a different tact. The trend is to use 230-pound middle linebackers who can get to the deep middle, 250-pound defensive ends who are best known as pass rushers, safeties with corner skills who are a bit undersized from the old-school 6-foot-2, 225-pounder, in-the-box strong safeties, weakside backers who are converted safeties, and extra defensive back packages based on down and distance. The defenses did what they had to do -- build units based on speed.

Marc Serota / Getty Images

Don't be surprised to see new Dolphins boss Bill Parcells mold his team's offense into a jumbo unit that can bully undersized defenses.

I get the feeling that a few offensive coordinators are starting to see a new opportunity emerging from these defensive tactics.

It was suggested to me that a few teams may be considering an old-fashioned offensive mentality that might be more from the Vince Lombardi school than the spread offense of 2007. It just might be time to send two big in-line tight end types out on to the field with a big old-fashioned fullback and a power runner. It might just be time to punch these quick defenses right in the nose with some smash-mouth power football.

One coach told me his team's divisional opponents dictate this switch -- tighten the line splits down so quick defensive linemen can't penetrate a gap, and roll a short-yardage philosophy out in the middle of the field.

It's still in the formative stages, but here's the plan as I understand it: Force the undersized weak linebacker to play on the line of scrimmage; make the hybrid safety play in the box, make the undersized pass rusher play over the offensive tackle with a tight end able to block down on him and send a fullback, who is bigger than the middle linebacker, right at him. It might not be exciting football but it would be a very interesting way to attack speed defenses.

The first team that came to mind when I had the discussion about attacking defenses this way was the Miami Dolphins. Picture the right side, with Justin Smiley at guard, Jake Long next to him and tight end Anthony Fasano next to Long. In the backfield, 250-pound FB Boomer Grigsby is leading Ronnie Brown. There would be some running room over there -- and it might look just as inviting going to the left.

The Dolphins could shorten the game, not expose their quarterbacks and keep the team in games a lot longer. Everyone knows Bill Parcells always loved big defensive players; when he sees all of the undersized defenses popping up around the NFL, he knows they will struggle with bulk and power offense.

The true test will come when a team uses this philosophy when they are down by six or seven points, deciding not to panic and throw more than they are capable of, risking turnovers. Last year, we saw the Raiders stick with the run when they were down in games and at times they were able to climb back in games by staying committed to the run. They had no other choice at the time; a team like Miami could be in the same boat this year.

It's too early to tell if it will be a trend in 2008, but I do know offenses are getting very tempted to bring a power game to the undersized defenses around the NFL. As one offensive coordinator said to me: "Everything that goes around comes around, and it just might be time to dust off the tight splits and heavy personnel."

 
I was thinking of posting the thread myself. Kirwan talks about this quite a bit on his radio show. Especially the point about the big, down in the box safety like Roy Williams and how that type of player is becoming a liability. I lived in Tampa when Tony Dungy brought his spin on the cover 2 and he stated that he tweaked that defense to combat the WCO. He felt that if they got to the QB quickly, had CB's that could tackle and eliminate the YAC, and since o lineman for WCO were usually smaller and quicker, then he could match them with smaller, quicker d lineman.

Now alot of teams employ some of the Tampa 2. And for years, the teams that gave the Bucs defense fits were power running teams. It seemed like every Bucs game, the broadcasters would state that the best way to run on the Bucs was to go right at them and their smallish d line.

The Falcons' head coach has stated that they will be using 2 tight end sets to employ a power running game with Michael Turner.

This preseason will be interseting to watch and I am not sure if we will see such a broad switch across the league after what the Pats did last year, but it is something I am going to monitor.

 
The Dolphins and Raiders combined to win 5 games last season. No offense but those are not teams that I'm looking to when it comes to having a blueprint for success in the NFL.

 
The Bears are going to be forced to try and run this again. It didn't work with Benson because he would go down if you breathed on him hard, but maybe Forte can make it work, and if so, maybe we can get in the bottom five in the league in pass attempts (IMO, the only way the Bears can beat last year's win total)

 
I think this style might be a good fit for KC who appears to be rebuilding their OL to favor a power running attack. KC has on of the top power RB's in Larry Johnson as well as a very good possession WR Bowe and TE Gonzo as well as a huge new TE Brad Cottam 6-8 271 lbs who is rumored to be either a great blocking TE with hands or a project for the future offensive lineman. KC also has a young QB that they would prefer only had to manage games and prevent turnovers instead of having to "win" games.

Defense:

KC has been investing in their defense (with the exception of trading away DE Jared Allen) by drafting Hali, Tank, Turk, Dorsey and a slew of well respected rookie DB's.

KC could have the makings of a ball control and low scoring power running game combined with a future top flight defense.

 
Chase Stuart said:
Thanks, that was a good read and the best I got from it personally is a trend of smaller LB's and DE's recently while most linemen have been getting bigger for a long time. If this predicted trend of a future power running game materializes I don't think we would see it for a few years and if we did I would think that the reaction to it would be for LB's to get bigger.

 
The Dolphins and Raiders combined to win 5 games last season. No offense but those are not teams that I'm looking to when it comes to having a blueprint for success in the NFL.
Doesn't mean that the gameplan is wrong, just that they don't have good enough players to do it.
It sounds like Martyball to me. Run the ball. Play defense. Hide the quarterback. If it's successful that strategy might get you 8-11 wins in a season and a team might make the playoffs now and again but they're never a threat to win anything. When they play teams that can actually pass the ball they're pitiful offenses just can't keep up and the defense has to play perfectly. If a team has to have that sort of Martyball-type gameplan out of necessity with the personnel on-hand that's one thing. In this day and age and knowing what we know now however I can't figure out why a team wouldn't build their team focusing on passing the ball and scoring as much points as possible as opposed to being conservative and mainly running the ball. What's that saying again? Points come out of the passing game. What's that other saying? When you play not to lose, you lose.

Basically I think the gameplan is wrong. Dead wrong.

 
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The Dolphins and Raiders combined to win 5 games last season. No offense but those are not teams that I'm looking to when it comes to having a blueprint for success in the NFL.
Doesn't mean that the gameplan is wrong, just that they don't have good enough players to do it.
It sounds like Martyball to me. Run the ball. Play defense. Hide the quarterback. If it's successful that strategy might get you 8-11 wins in a season and a team might make the playoffs now and again but they're never a threat to win anything. When they play teams that can actually pass the ball they're pitiful offenses just can't keep up and the defense has to play perfectly. If a team has to have that sort of Martyball-type gameplan out of necessity with the personnel on-hand that's one thing. In this day and age and knowing what we know now however I can't figure out why a team wouldn't build their team focusing on passing the ball and scoring as much points as possible as opposed to being conservative and mainly running the ball. What's that saying again? Points come out of the passing game. What's that other saying? When you play not to lose, you lose.

Basically I think the gameplan is wrong. Dead wrong.
I think the reason most teams don't focus on scoring as many points as possible is that they don't have the quality of QB to pull it off and teams have to get lucky to get one even if they have the #1 overall draft pick. Coaches can't afford to take a chance on a high first round draft pick when the odds are low for a payoff. It's easier and probably smarter to build a super defense and play a low scoring ground control offense. Baltimore's super bowl would seem to be the best example that I can think of. So the key difference would be having a great defense instead of just a good one.
 
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It would be worth watching which teams start trending this way, if only for the impact on the opposing offense. I.e. Miami might have an awful, porous defense this year, but if they play a ball-control, plodding offense (and stick with it all game), the opposing team wont have the time of possession to put up monster fantsy stats, despite the good matchup.

 

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