Triple Threats (1 Viewer)

[netnalp]

Rather than bog down the Witten thread more, I thought I'd start a new one. Predictions for Austin, Dez & Witten seem to have all 3 getting around 1k yards or more. To look at how possible that is, Historical Data Dominator was used to look at trios of WR/TEs for each team from 1960-2010. The bottom cut off was 800 receiving yards, seemed like a good cut off because a WR/TE can make up for yards if the get enough TDs, 800yds/10tds wouldn't be horrible. Here are the trios that each had 800+ yds.

1967

Mitchell 60/866/6

Smith 67/849/12

Taylor 70/990/9

1980

Jefferson 82/1340/13

Joiner 71/1132/4

Winslow 89/1290/9

1981

Chandler 52/857/5

Joiner 70/1188/7

Winslow 88/1075/10

1981

Rashad 58/884/7

Senser 79/1004/8

White 66/1001/3

1983

Chandler 58/845/5

Joiner 65/960/3

Winslow 88/1172/8

1988

Monk 72/946/5

Sanders 73/1148/12

Clark 59/892/7

1989

Monk 86/1186/8

Sanders 80/1138/4

Clark 79/1229/9

1990

Givins 72/979/9

Hill 74/1019/5

Jeffries 74/1048/8

1991

Givins 70/996/5

Hill 90/1109/4

Jeffries 100/1181/7

1992

Haynes 48/808/10

Pritchard 77/827/5

Rison 93/1119/11

1994

Brisby 58/904/5

Coates 96/1174/7

Timpson 74/941/3

1995

Metcalf 104/1189/8 (always thought he was a RB but Data Dominator and ProFootball Reference.com list as WR, only had 28 rushes so it works)

Emanuel 74/1039/5

Mathis 78/1039/9

1999

Jeffers 63/1082/12

Muhammed 96/1253/8

Walls 63/822/12

2004

Wayne 77/1210/12

Harrison 86/1113/15

Stokley 68/1077/10

2008

Daniels 70/862/2

Johnson 115/1575/8

Walter 60/899/8

2008

Boldin 89/1038/11

Fitzgerald 96/1431/12

Breaston 77/1006/3

2010

Armstrong 44/871/3

Cooley 77/849/3

Moss 93/115/6

As you can see, since 1960 - 2010 only one trio has ever contained 2WRs and 1TE where all 3 got 1k+ rec yds (1980 Jefferson 82/1340/13, Joiner 71/1132/4, Winslow 89/1290/9). Those thinking Dez, Austin and Witten will all have 1k+ yards are going to be disappointed.

 

[djmich]

2008?

 

[Sweet Love]

I'll admit, I did not look through the Witten thread, but I have no problem projecting all three with 1k yards (even though the data does not support a chance of it happening). I am not sure who I would pull out of that trio of Austin, Bryant and Witten NOT to hit 1k, and really, it is an arbitrary number. Would you be disappointed with your projections if one of the three fell short with 950 yards? I wouldn't be.

To take it a step further, if you projected Bryant (for example) for 1100 yards and 5 TDs, and he walked away with 950 and 10 TDs, would you be disappointed?

NOW, if you plan on going to Vegas and betting on all three hitting 1000 yards, then yes, I agree with you, you would be disappointed, but 1000 is no more a milestone than 1137 or 954. If you are off by a little, it really does not matter.

 

[netnalp]

2008?

no TE

 

[netnalp]

I'll admit, I did not look through the Witten thread, but I have no problem projecting all three with 1k yards (even though the data does not support a chance of it happening). I am not sure who I would pull out of that trio of Austin, Bryant and Witten NOT to hit 1k, and really, it is an arbitrary number. Would you be disappointed with your projections if one of the three fell short with 950 yards? I wouldn't be.To take it a step further, if you projected Bryant (for example) for 1100 yards and 5 TDs, and he walked away with 950 and 10 TDs, would you be disappointed?NOW, if you plan on going to Vegas and betting on all three hitting 1000 yards, then yes, I agree with you, you would be disappointed, but 1000 is no more a milestone than 1137 or 954. If you are off by a little, it really does not matter.

That's why I searched for 800+ yard trios. 1000 yards would be getting close, if you set all three to that. It's when projections have 1k for Witten with Dez and Austin in the 1400 range that the predictions have gone too high. Part of why my perception that the predictions for these guys are too high, is from looking at individual threads for each one. But I do think I've seen predictions listing all 3 where the numbers aren't realistic.My prediction is Witten 85/1000/6Austin 65/850/7Dez 90/1200/10

 

[dgreen]

2008?

no TE

Daniels is a TE.

 

[netnalp]

2008?

no TE

Daniels is a TE.

Daniels & Walter met the 800+ yds to make the list but didn't get the 1k+ that I stated only Winslow, Joiner & Jefferson did.

 

[3nOut]

2008?

no TE

Daniels is a TE.

But only Johnson h 1k yards.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is the problem people have with projections. Who cares if all 3 are projected to 1k+ yards and that's hardly happened before? Project each player individually. If I project Austin to 1k, Witten to 1k, and Bryant to 1k then I'm not predicting that all three will each get 1k, I'm projecting that Austin will get 1k, Witten will get 1k, and Bryant will get 1k. If I'm wrong about one, at least I haven't ruined my chances with the others. Realistically, the chances that you're going to be right about any three players without missing on one is low anyway.

It's foolish to do your projections as if all your other projections are correct. We're all going to be wrong about tons of players. If you base your projections of players off of projections of other players then you're just taking all of those players you were wrong about and cascading your miss on downwards. Instead of missing on one player, you're now missing on every player who's projections were affected by that player.

Making accurate projections is extremely difficult, and will fail half the time. Adding additional volatile variables to that process only reduces its effectiveness.

 

[Go deep]

This is the problem people have with projections. Who cares if all 3 are projected to 1k+ yards and that's hardly happened before? Project each player individually. If I project Austin to 1k, Witten to 1k, and Bryant to 1k then I'm not predicting that all three will each get 1k, I'm projecting that Austin will get 1k, Witten will get 1k, and Bryant will get 1k. If I'm wrong about one, at least I haven't ruined my chances with the others. Realistically, the chances that you're going to be right about any three players without missing on one is low anyway.

It's foolish to do your projections as if all your other projections are correct. We're all going to be wrong about tons of players. If you base your projections of players off of projections of other players then you're just taking all of those players you were wrong about and cascading your miss on downwards. Instead of missing on one player, you're now missing on every player who's projections were affected by that player.

Making accurate projections is extremely difficult, and will fail half the time. Adding additional volatile variables to that process only reduces its effectiveness.

I get the point you are trying to make here, but i strongly disagree with the bolded. Im going to take as many variables into account as i can when doing my projections.

Just a quick example, if Austin suffered a season ending injury in the preseason, my Dez Bryant projections would go up, and probably considerably. As of now though, i dont think he gets 1000 yards, and part of that is because of all the competition he has for touches.

 

[finito]

The problem is Dez and Miles are being drafted as top 10 wrs and Witten is being drafted as a top 5 te. I think the odds of all three reaching those goals are slim to none. 1000 yds for Dez or Miles would be a disappointment.

 

[sihaokills]

I don't think all 3 will reach their expectations

 

[IHEARTFF]

The problem is Dez and Miles are being drafted as top 10 wrs and Witten is being drafted as a top 5 te. I think the odds of all three reaching those goals are slim to none. 1000 yds for Dez or Miles would be a disappointment.

Not sure about drafts, but fbg has Austin ranked 10th and Dez ranked 20th, so not sure how you would see that as expecting both to be top 10.