Trip's Top 6 Most Undervalued RBs - Precamp Edition (1 Viewer)

[TripItUp]

After participating in quite a few online money drafts and doing a fair amount of research, the following are my value plays pre-camp.   (ADP per FF calculator, PPR 12 team leagues)

Enjoy...

1.    Alex Collins - ADP RB#20, 4.02 overall

Collins had an impressive 4.6 YPC with over 200 carries his Sophomore season, but I really love that he had the 3rd highest DVOA among all RBs...this kid can ball and is being undervalued because he isn't flashy and is in Baltimore...take advantage of that misguided perception in your drafts. 

2.   Sony Michel - ADP RB#23, 4.09 overall

Top 5 RB upside with a 5th round price tag, yes please.   Watch Michel's college game tape and you'll see a back with the total package.   If the Pats spend a high pick on a RB, they're going to use him.  Burkhead and White are not in the same class of talent.  Only real concern is fumbles, but reward far outweighs the risk in this instance.

3.   Royce Freeman – ADP RB#28, 5.08 overall

Top 10 RB upside with a 5th round price tag.  Keenum and the offense should improve overall potentially allowing for Freeman to best Anderson’s numbers from last year, which weren’t too shabby.  Also, Devontae Booker is not competition.

4.   Marlon Mack – ADP RB#32 6.11 overall

Reich comes to town, investments were made in the O Line and  Luck is throwing again.  This offense can see a Rams-type resurgence and Mack is first in line to be the bellcow.   Mack proved to be a proficient pass catcher as well with over 20 receptions with limited snaps.  His handcuffs are cheap as well.

5.   CJ Anderson – ADP RB#40, 8.09 overall

Anderson quietly had a 1000 yard season last year and now he’ll be in a better situation…yes please.  He may not be sexy, but he’s going to get the early down work, despite what McCaffrey fan boys were hoping for.

6.    Matt Breida – ADP RB#55, 13.06 overall

I’m not on the McKinnon bandwagon, he’s never had 160 carries in a season and there’s a reason for that.  I love taking a late round flier on Breida who proved very capable last year with a 4.4 ypc, not to mention 21 receptions in limited opportunity.  He will be ready to take advantage of any opportunity McKinnon can’t take advantage of.   Do yourself a favor and stash this guy in the late rounds in leagues with deeper rosters.  And if you are one of those overpaying for McKinnon, this is your handcuff.

Other value plays: 

Kareem Hunt - offense will hum and finished strong down the stretch

Devonta Freeman - how soon we forget his league winning 2016

Kerryon Johnson - looks NFL ready with little competition for early down work

Nyheim Hines - I only like him in PPRs, but he may be able to take on a James White/Rex Burkhead role in Reich's offense, only he has significantly more talent

 

[Slider]

The whole Atlanta O including Freeman took a hit with Shanahan leaving and this is also why McKinnon and Jimmy G are so popular.

 

[TripItUp]

The whole Atlanta O including Freeman took a hit with Shanahan leaving and this is also why McKinnon and Jimmy G are so popular.

 I like Jimmy G and the Niner offense, but McKinnon is overvalued.

Freeman was doing just fine prior to his injuries and still averaged 4.4 ypc.  He can get back to top 5 status if he can stay on the field.

 

[Slider]

 I like Jimmy G and the Niner offense, but McKinnon is overvalued.

Freeman was doing just fine prior to his injuries and still averaged 4.4 ypc.  He can get back to top 5 status if he can stay on the field.

I don't think Freeman comes close to those 2016 numbers. And I like McKinnon to mirror Freeman's 2016.

 

[TripItUp]

And I like McKinnon to mirror Freeman's 2016.

I just don't see it...most overvalued player at RB this year.

 

[Slider]

I just don't see it...most overvalued player at RB this year.

I own him nowhere so I hope you're right but I think he may do very well.

 

[travdogg]

With you 100% on Collins and Anderson. I think Denver is going to really regret dumping CJ, he was awesome last year, considering his league worst QB play. Going from that to Newton, his per touch numbers should spike, even if he gets less work.

In addition to a top-3 DVOA, Collins was PFF's #1 rusher, and 4th overall RB. Most of that was without Marshal Yanda, who is arguably the best guard in the NFL. 

 

[Titletown_Favres]

Look at the RBs in PPR drafts going around McKinnon. Slightly after is Mixon and Howard. I’d way rather have McKinnon. Howard can’t catch and has Cohen. Cin OL still is below average. Right ahead of him is McCaffrey while I’d probably take him he shares with C.J. Same for Freeman with Coleman. And McCoy is old and on a horrible team. Even late 2nd if ppr that’s fine for McKinnon. 

 

[msudaisy26]

 I like Jimmy G and the Niner offense, but McKinnon is overvalued.

Freeman was doing just fine prior to his injuries and still averaged 4.4 ypc.  He can get back to top 5 status if he can stay on the field.

So Michel, Freeman, and Hunt have top 5 rb value? Curious where you have Bell, Gurley, Zeke, and DJ at.

 

[TripItUp]

Look at the RBs in PPR drafts going around McKinnon. Slightly after is Mixon and Howard. I’d way rather have McKinnon. Howard can’t catch and has Cohen. Cin OL still is below average. Right ahead of him is McCaffrey while I’d probably take him he shares with C.J. Same for Freeman with Coleman. And McCoy is old and on a horrible team. Even late 2nd if ppr that’s fine for McKinnon. 

Don't forget you can take other positions besides RB.

 

[TripItUp]

So Michel, Freeman, and Hunt have top 5 rb value? Curious where you have Bell, Gurley, Zeke, and DJ at.

I would say as many as 15 RBs have top 5 upside...

 

[Titletown_Favres]

You can take other positions. In a snake draft you can probably get one of the aforementioned Mixon or howard. I play in 3rd round reversal so say I have a top 4 1st round pick meaning I pick late 2 and 3. The 3rd round late rb aren’t too appealing and I can make Wr which is deep up. 

 

[saintfool]

4.   Marlon Mack – ADP RB#32 6.11 overall

McDaniels comes to town, investments were made in the O Line and  Luck is throwing again.  This offense can see a Rams-type resurgence and Mack is first in line to be the bellcow.   Mack proved to be a proficient pass catcher as well with over 20 receptions with limited snaps.  His handcuffs are cheap as well.

I think you mean Reich, yes? McDaniels looks to be the heir apparent in NE now with Patricia gone. 

I'm not sold on Mack as the starter. He missed time this spring with OTAs because of injury. He isn't an inside runner and will be really challenged by Nyheim as the pass catching RB there to own, imo. Mack isn't bad but seems stuck with nothing that makes him special. The veteran Turbin is there for the inside runs, goal line and other short yardage situations this year. Wilkins is a stash for next year - practice squad maybe? - given the numbers here. 

 

[TripItUp]

I think you mean Reich, yes? McDaniels looks to be the heir apparent in NE now with Patricia gone. 

I'm not sold on Mack as the starter. He missed time this spring with OTAs because of injury. He isn't an inside runner and will be really challenged by Nyheim as the pass catching RB there to own, imo. Mack isn't bad but seems stuck with nothing that makes him special. The veteran Turbin is there for the inside runs, goal line and other short yardage situations this year. Wilkins is a stash for next year - practice squad maybe? - given the numbers here. 

yep, meant Reich...good catch

 

[Slapdash]

 I like Jimmy G and the Niner offense, but McKinnon is overvalued.

Freeman was doing just fine prior to his injuries and still averaged 4.4 ypc.  He can get back to top 5 status if he can stay on the field.

I don't think McKinnon is overvalued like you do, but Breida is undervalued regardless.  Quietly produced over 100 PPR points from a support role

 

[Anarchy99]

I disagree on Michel. The Pats have drafted early round RBs before and rookies have not taken over and were always in a time share. 

They still have White, Burkhead, Gillisee, and Hill ( at least for now). Between salaries and bonuses, NE is in it for over $10 million for those guys this year. If B.B. really had plans to make Michel the bell cow, they would not keep all those guys and pay out that kind of money. 

There is nothing over the past decade that shows NE wants to use a primary back. They have utilized specialists time and time again. Sure, they COULD change, but I am not sure they will change with a first year player.  

Michel could emerge and get more touches if the other backs get hurt ( which happens a lot in NE), but I don’t see his usage as worthy as him having Top 5 potential. 

 

[TripItUp]

I disagree on Michel. The Pats have drafted early round RBs before and rookies have not taken over and were always in a time share. 

They still have White, Burkhead, Gillisee, and Hill ( at least for now). Between salaries and bonuses, NE is in it for over $10 million for those guys this year. If B.B. really had plans to make Michel the bell cow, they would not keep all those guys and pay out that kind of money. 

There is nothing over the past decade that shows NE wants to use a primary back. They have utilized specialists time and time again. Sure, they COULD change, but I am not sure they will change with a first year player.  

Michel could emerge and get more touches if the other backs get hurt ( which happens a lot in NE), but I don’t see his usage as worthy as him having Top 5 potential. 

This is going way back but IMHO, Michel is the best RB the Pats have  had since Corey Dillon.  

 

[Run It Up]

On paper youre right, but im definitely not buying shares of Michel.

Honestly i think Mark Ingram, Ronald Jones, Dion Lewis and Christian McCaffrey are being undervalued.

 

[matuski]

So Michel, Freeman, and Hunt have top 5 rb value? Curious where you have Bell, Gurley, Zeke, and DJ at.

he didn't say top 5 value.  he said upside.

 

[ratbast]

Im targeting Lynch. dirt-cheap 1000/10. 

Nice list, love Collins.

 

[TripItUp]

Look at the RBs in PPR drafts going around McKinnon. Slightly after is Mixon and Howard. I’d way rather have McKinnon. Howard can’t catch and has Cohen. Cin OL still is below average. Right ahead of him is McCaffrey while I’d probably take him he shares with C.J. Same for Freeman with Coleman. And McCoy is old and on a horrible team. Even late 2nd if ppr that’s fine for McKinnon. 

I have McKinnon ranked #25

 

[TripItUp]

Im targeting Lynch. dirt-cheap 1000/10. 

Nice list, love Collins.

I'm torn on Lynch, not sure he can do it for an entire season.at his age.  He did look good in spots last year.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I’ll stump for Freeman here a bit.  He played in just 13 games (while game logs show 14, he was knocked out of one on the opening drive).  So in those 13 games, he put up 1179/8.  Translated to 16 games, that’s a 1450/10 line.

Going in early to mid 2nd round.  Makes drafting toward the end of the loop pretty attractive.

 

[Anarchy99]

This is going way back but IMHO, Michel is the best RB the Pats have  had since Corey Dillon.  

Michel may be the best RB NE has had since Dillon . . . but Dillon had 360 touches in 2004 (and only ranked 7th that year).

Looking over the past 3 seasons, the average workload for a Top 5 RB in standard scoring leagues (0 ppr) was 321 touches a year. In the BB era, NE has had only 5 RBs that hit 250 touches in a season: Dillon 360 in 04, Blount 306 in 16 (with other backs injured), Smith 306 in 01, Ridley 302 in 12, and Smith 283 in 02.

The one notable exception to the heavy usage model for Top 5 RB's was Kamara, who only had 202 touches (but scored 13 TD). However, I don't see Michel getting anywhere close to 82 receptions or 13 TD.

I agree with you that Michel is talented, but I don't see a path for him to see the ball enough to make a huge impact as a rookie. My guess is someone else will play the role as 3rd down or receiving back . . . and someone else will be the short yardage and goal line back. IMO, that leaves Michel as a two down back that many times will come out in the red zone. Maybe that model changes as the season progresses or other backs get dinged up. And if Michel starts fumbling, he could quickly see a reduced role.

As for the usage of other rookie Patriots backs, Maroney had the most touches with 197. Ridley had 90. Green-Ellis had 77. Vereen had 15. White had 14. I will certainly concede that none of that really matters to this year's team (and BB would concur). MFL has Michel's ADP as 45th overall. IMO, that's too rich for my blood even if he has really high upside.

Just curious, what do you project Michel at in terms of rushes, yardage, TD, receptions, yardage, TD?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Excellent thread/post Trip....these are the kind of threads that make swimming in the shark pool worth the time....

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Michel may be the best RB NE has had since Dillon . . . but Dillon had 360 touches in 2004 (and only ranked 7th that year).

Looking over the past 3 seasons, the average workload for a Top 5 RB in standard scoring leagues (0 ppr) was 321 touches a year. In the BB era, NE has had only 5 RBs that hit 250 touches in a season: Dillon 360 in 04, Blount 306 in 16 (with other backs injured), Smith 306 in 01, Ridley 302 in 12, and Smith 283 in 02.

The one notable exception to the heavy usage model for Top 5 RB's was Kamara, who only had 202 touches (but scored 13 TD). However, I don't see Michel getting anywhere close to 82 receptions or 13 TD.

I agree with you that Michel is talented, but I don't see a path for him to see the ball enough to make a huge impact as a rookie. My guess is someone else will play the role as 3rd down or receiving back . . . and someone else will be the short yardage and goal line back. IMO, that leaves Michel as a two down back that many times will come out in the red zone. Maybe that model changes as the season progresses or other backs get dinged up. And if Michel starts fumbling, he could quickly see a reduced role.

As for the usage of other rookie Patriots backs, Maroney had the most touches with 197. Ridley had 90. Green-Ellis had 77. Vereen had 15. White had 14. I will certainly concede that none of that really matters to this year's team (and BB would concur). MFL has Michel's ADP as 45th overall. IMO, that's too rich for my blood even if he has really high upside.

Just curious, what do you project Michel at in terms of rushes, yardage, TD, receptions, yardage, TD?

I know you are arguing against the position of Michel having top 5 upside (and I agree that's a stretch) but as to the premise of the thread I think he can still be considered undervalued even if White and Burkhead aren't totally left out of the offense.

Dion Lewis finished as RB15 (solid RB2) on only 212 touches and he was barely used the first five weeks coming off 2016's injury. If Michel stays healthy and isn't eased into the offense like Lewis was, 250 touches doesn't seem like a stretch at all - 321 does however. 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

This is going way back but IMHO, Michel is the best RB the Pats have  had since Corey Dillon.  

I think the issue with Michel (or any NE RB) is as follows:

1) Belichick uses the first 4 games as an extended pre-season.  He knows he has the talent/QB/pedigree/division weakness to be patient.

2) As such, roles get carved out/established in September.  It's a different situation, but Gillislee looked like decent RB2 value through first 4 games last year.  2015 was another example of the fluid nature of Pats RB's.

3) To be fair, Michel does have the standing of 1st rounder so he's going to have a role.  He won't be inactive.  But will it be fantasy worthy/predictable?  That's the question and many have tried to read Hoodie's tendencies here to frustrating levels of success/failure.

 

[Anarchy99]

I know you are arguing against the position of Michel having top 5 upside (and I agree that's a stretch) but as to the premise of the thread I think he can still be considered undervalued even if White and Burkhead aren't totally left out of the offense.

Dion Lewis finished as RB15 (solid RB2) on only 212 touches and he was barely used the first five weeks coming off 2017's injury. If Michel stays healthy and isn't eased into the offense like Lewis was, 250 touches doesn't seem like a stretch at all - 321 does however. 

Michel has an ADP of RB 19 at MFL. Yes, Lewis had limited usage early in the season and inflated usage down the stretch. I think Michel will be brought along slowly. We have no idea if he can pick up blitzers, how much he'll be used in the passing game, if he can hold onto the football, and if NE will give him a bigger spectrum of work than I just explained (using other guys as specialists). I think sometimes people ignore the real world concerns of football and only look at what skilled position players could do. Brady's health trumps all else, and we know the Pats trust White to be in the right spot for blocking and to adjust his positioning and routes to get open in the passing game. That's just one example.

I reiterate that NE 1) kept Gillislee with $2.2 million cap hit when they had him inactive most of the season, 2) signed Hill with a $1.3 million cap hit, 3) re-signed Burkhead (3 years worth almost $10 million with $5.5 million guaranteed) , and 4) still owe White $7.3 million over 2 years. I would be much higher on Michel if they let Burkhead walk, cut Gillislee, and ignored Hill altogether. Maybe BB reinvents himself and goes crazy feeding Michel the ball, but he hasn't taken that approach very often (especially when rookies are involved).

Given all that, I don't see Michel's realistic upside being a lot higher than his current ADP. MAYBE he could get to the #15 spot Lewis got to. But he could also split time with multiple players and end up more in the Maroney range (ended his rookie season as RB28). I might be convinced to change my opinion some the closer we get to the season, but that's where I'm at at the moment.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

After participating in quite a few online money drafts and doing a fair amount of research, the following are my value plays pre-camp.   (ADP per FF calculator, PPR 12 team leagues)

Enjoy...

1.    Alex Collins - ADP RB#20, 4.02 overall

Collins had an impressive 4.6 YPC with over 200 carries his Sophomore season, but I really love that he had the 3rd highest DVOA among all RBs...this kid can ball and is being undervalued because he isn't flashy and is in Baltimore...take advantage of that misguided perception in your drafts. 

Feeling this more every time I look at my rankings. The Ravens backfield was very productive as a whole last year and that was without Yanda. Collins became more involved as a receiver as the season went on, and he was still start-worthy after Woodhead came back. A good "reserve a fourth rounder for him" choice

 

[ratbast]

I’m invested happily in Collins. My biggest concerns are

They seem to love Allen and they used him frequently at the goal line. 

They have revamped the receivers. Hope they don’t get too cute at the goal line. 

If Flacco gives way to The rookie does he vulture goal line TDS too much?

So perhaps his perceived value is a bit of coaching paranoia. 

My keeper league is minimal PPR and TDS still heavily valued. FWIW. 

 

[nirad3]

Nyheim Hines - I only like him in PPRs, but he may be able to take on a James White/Rex Burkhead role in Reich's offense, only he has significantly more talent

Really?

 

[TripItUp]

Really?

definitely

 

[TripItUp]

3) To be fair, Michel does have the standing of 1st rounder so he's going to have a role.  He won't be inactive.  But will it be fantasy worthy/predictable?  That's the question and many have tried to read Hoodie's tendencies here to frustrating levels of success/failure.

True, he's a bit of a risk/reward play...I like his upside in drafts where I wait on RB2.

 

[Brisco54]

I know you are arguing against the position of Michel having top 5 upside (and I agree that's a stretch) but as to the premise of the thread I think he can still be considered undervalued even if White and Burkhead aren't totally left out of the offense.

Dion Lewis finished as RB15 (solid RB2) on only 212 touches and he was barely used the first five weeks coming off 2016's injury. If Michel stays healthy and isn't eased into the offense like Lewis was, 250 touches doesn't seem like a stretch at all - 321 does however. 

I am a Burkhead fan, and so that tempers my expectations for Michel.  Burkhead has a career yards per carry of 4.23 and a carrier average of 8.46 yards per catch.  He finished third among RBs in yards per catch in 2017 following only Tevin Coleman and Kamara.  That was in a season where he faced both rib and knee injuries.

Word was that Burkhead was a Belichek signing because he totally buys in to the Patriot way.

If, Burkhead is healthy, and that is a big if. he will put up some very flashy numbers and could flirt with high end RB2 status for the season.

 

[The Frankman]

I am in a yearly 16-teamer, and when I get to the 4th round (Pick: 43-64) my Top 3 RB targets will be

1) Alex Collins

2) Alex Collins

3) Mitch Finn

There is a real path for him to garner legit-to-low end RB1 numbers on you roster at an RB2 price.  Don't have to worry about him being a rookie or about him being allergic to inside running. 

 

[cloppbeast]

I think you mean Reich, yes? McDaniels looks to be the heir apparent in NE now with Patricia gone. 

I'm not sold on Mack as the starter. He missed time this spring with OTAs because of injury. He isn't an inside runner and will be really challenged by Nyheim as the pass catching RB there to own, imo. Mack isn't bad but seems stuck with nothing that makes him special. The veteran Turbin is there for the inside runs, goal line and other short yardage situations this year. Wilkins is a stash for next year - practice squad maybe? - given the numbers here. 

Usually rookies in good situations get overvalued so I'm surprised Wilkins hasn't any more hype.  Hines might have a role as pass catcher but is not suited for banging between the tackles. We all know that Turbin has serviceable ability; his opportunity relies on neither Wilkins or Mack being any good. And it's very possible based on last season that Mack isn't any good. Wilkins should be valued at least the same as Mack. How the fantasy community has evaluated this situation is an enigma. 

 

[TripItUp]

In  a current ffpc best ball draft I took Mack in the 8th and Wilkins in the 15th....that should be the approach, take both on the cheap to more or less lock up the situation.  

 

[Kam2]

I reiterate that NE 1) kept Gillislee with $2.2 million cap hit when they had him inactive most of the season, 2) signed Hill with a $1.3 million cap hit, 3) re-signed Burkhead (3 years worth almost $10 million with $5.5 million guaranteed) , and 4) still owe White $7.3 million over 2 years. I would be much higher on Michel if they let Burkhead walk, cut Gillislee, and ignored Hill altogether. Maybe BB reinvents himself and goes crazy feeding Michel the ball, but he hasn't taken that approach very often (especially when rookies are involved).

Given all that, I don't see Michel's realistic upside being a lot higher than his current ADP. MAYBE he could get to the #15 spot Lewis got to. But he could also split time with multiple players and end up more in the Maroney range (ended his rookie season as RB28). I might be convinced to change my opinion some the closer we get to the season, but that's where I'm at at the moment.

I think cutting Gillislee is likely but that is still a crowded backfield.

I think people see a lot shades of Alvin Kamara with Sony Michel, which is unfair and unrealistic.

Also, McKinnon is starting to skyrocket in terms of ADP. By August his hype train will push him to back half of the first round in a PPR.

 

[TripItUp]

Something else on Michel, Lawrence Maloney is the closest rookie RB comp to Michel in the Belichick era...Maroney had 950 total yards and 7 TDs his rookie season.

Michel IMHO is a better player than Maroney.

 

[TripItUp]

I think cutting Gillislee is likely but that is still a crowded backfield.

I see very little competition for the early down work.  60% of the Pats snaps would make Michel a top 10 RB.

 

[Anarchy99]

I see very little competition for the early down work.  60% of the Pats snaps would make Michel a top 10 RB.

I believe there have been several NE backs over the years that have earned 60% of the Pats offensive snaps. And not one has come close to ranking in the Top 10 (in close to 15 years). They aren't going to just have all their other backs standing on the sidelines and have them all watch Michel. Burkhead scored 8 times in 10 games (and was literally knocked out of a couple of them). We already know how much they like and trust White in passing situations.

Clearly you want and expect Michel to come in and take over as a heavy workload back, but what you want and what BB will do don't fully align. If Michel gets pulled on third downs and in the red zone, I don't see any chance he sniffs the Top 10.

The other issue is BB may have learned that having guys healthy in the playoffs is more important than having them get pick workloads early in the season. I suspect Michel will be on a snap or carry count to keep him available and fresh throughout the season.

 

[Kam2]

In the past three seasons, no New England running back has approached a 60% market share of the touches:

2017 RB Rushing/Receiving

• Total Touches - 567
  
• Dion Lewis - 212 Touches (Leader)
  
• 37.3%
  

2016 RB Rushing Receiving

• Total Touches - 566
  
• Legarrette Blount - 306 Touches (Leader)
  
• 54%
  

2015 RB Rushing/Receiving

• Total Touches - 484
  
• Legarrette Blount - 171 Touches (Leader)
  
• 35.3%
  

Not to mention that James White and Rex Burkhead are both back and White has led all New England running backs in catches since coming to the team in 2015 (he has topped 40 catches every year as well). I will concede that Sony Michel might be the most talented back they have, but given Belichick's track record plus the fact he is a rookie who's biggest job on a passing play will be to protect Tom Brady first, catch the ball second and I don't see a path to him getting enough touches to pay off his sticker price. 

 

[Anarchy99]

In the past three seasons, no New England running back has approached a 60% market share of the touches:

2017 RB Rushing/Receiving

• Total Touches - 567
  
• Dion Lewis - 212 Touches (Leader)
  
• 37.3%
  

2016 RB Rushing Receiving

• Total Touches - 566
  
• Legarrette Blount - 306 Touches (Leader)
  
• 54%
  

2015 RB Rushing/Receiving

• Total Touches - 484
  
• Legarrette Blount - 171 Touches (Leader)
  
• 35.3%
  

Not to mention that James White and Rex Burkhead are both back and White has led all New England running backs in catches since coming to the team in 2015 (he has topped 40 catches every year as well). I will concede that Sony Michel might be the most talented back they have, but given Belichick's track record plus the fact he is a rookie who's biggest job on a passing play will be to protect Tom Brady first, catch the ball second and I don't see a path to him getting enough touches to pay off his sticker price. 

Just to clarify, he said SNAPS not touches.

 

[Anarchy99]

In looking back at the snap percentages, NE really has gone RBBC over the past few years. Breakdown of the top 4 guys each season:

2017: 35.5% - 33.6% - 17.1% - 15%
2016: 47.1% - 38.1% - 14.6%
2015: 27.3% - 26.7% - 26.1% - 17.1%

So my recollection was wrong about who was on the field, but it probably only makes things more difficult to break the mold for Michel.

 

[Kam2]

Just to clarify, he said SNAPS not touches.

I illustrated the touches because New England it is a better indicator over the course of a season since their packages are so gameplan specific from week-to-week in terms of personnel with regards to touches. For instance, presuming Edelman is out, Burkhead is going to log more snaps the first four weeks of the season because he can play in the slot though that doesn't mean he will get 15 touches in a game.

 

[saintfool]

Usually rookies in good situations get overvalued so I'm surprised Wilkins hasn't any more hype.  Hines might have a role as pass catcher but is not suited for banging between the tackles. We all know that Turbin has serviceable ability; his opportunity relies on neither Wilkins or Mack being any good. And it's very possible based on last season that Mack isn't any good. Wilkins should be valued at least the same as Mack. How the fantasy community has evaluated this situation is an enigma. 

From a dynasty perspective, Wilkins is certainly interesting. I just don't think they are in any hurry to develop Wilkins right now. They trust Turbin for the tough runs on the interior, sure, but he's also an old hand at pass pro. This is crucial because of Luck's return. Most rookie RBs seem to struggle in this facet of the game. Turbin gives them that confidence. His contract is up at the end of the season, I think, and they can give Wilkins opportunities in advantageous situations during the season. This gives Wilkins time as well as the Colts to determine his long term outlook. Mack is really under the microscope now, imo, and missing the offseason thusfar likely doesn't endear him to the new regime. 

 

[TripItUp]

In looking back at the snap percentages, NE really has gone RBBC over the past few years. Breakdown of the top 4 guys each season:

2017: 35.5% - 33.6% - 17.1% - 15%
2016: 47.1% - 38.1% - 14.6%
2015: 27.3% - 26.7% - 26.1% - 17.1%

So my recollection was wrong about who was on the field, but it probably only makes things more difficult to break the mold for Michel.

Like I've said before, they haven't had a RB the caliber of Michel since Corey Dillon so any recent numbers could be misleading.

I believe the RBBC goes away to some degree if Michel is as good as I think he is.

I do agree with your point about Belichick preserving Michel for the playoffs...that's a real thing.

 

[Anarchy99]

Like I've said before, they haven't had a RB the caliber of Michel since Corey Dillon so any recent numbers could be misleading.

I believe the RBBC goes away to some degree if Michel is as good as I think he is.

I do agree with your point about Belichick preserving Michel for the playoffs...that's a real thing.

Still waiting on projected totals for Michel . . .

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

In  a current ffpc best ball draft I took Mack in the 8th and Wilkins in the 15th....that should be the approach, take both on the cheap to more or less lock up the situation.  

I don't think your locking it up though with Hines in town....he will have a role.

 

[Interseptopus]

I believe there have been several NE backs over the years that have earned 60% of the Pats offensive snaps. And not one has come close to ranking in the Top 10 (in close to 15 years). They aren't going to just have all their other backs standing on the sidelines and have them all watch Michel. Burkhead scored 8 times in 10 games (and was literally knocked out of a couple of them). We already know how much they like and trust White in passing situations.

Clearly you want and expect Michel to come in and take over as a heavy workload back, but what you want and what BB will do don't fully align. If Michel gets pulled on third downs and in the red zone, I don't see any chance he sniffs the Top 10.

The other issue is BB may have learned that having guys healthy in the playoffs is more important than having them get pick workloads early in the season. I suspect Michel will be on a snap or carry count to keep him available and fresh throughout the season.

This.

1500 total yards 40 receptions and 2 TDs is an impressive season, but is only 12 fantasy points per game. not top 10. not even top 15 in this rb crop. 

Expecting BB to do something he hasn't done in almost a decade and a half could quite possibly qualify as insanity.